Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

FWIW, Rollins is already gone. They tried to sneak him thru waivers and the Rangers claimed him. Also, what you're talking about are all bullpen arms not additional starting depth. Johnson could in theory be a starter but his control has been far too bad.

Also, if it's not a buyers market, how does that make FA any more reasonable? If you think the cubs are getting Hill I think you're in for a rude awakening because as much as the cubs may need him there's 5-10 teams who need him far worse. He's literally the only worth while starter on the market unless you're talking about a lower end guy like Hammel. The only reason we're not hearing much right now about FA rumors is teams likely are more concerned with the CBA that expires in 9 days. It really wouldn't surprise me if he gets $25 mil/year over 3 years from someone.

If you read what I said. I said if they go to FA they should go to Hill. He is putting up TOR production. Longevity is the major problem.

Add to it. A weak buyers market in starting pitching drives up the costs of SP via trade. A strong market lowers trade vale.

Supply and demand.

I have said they should stick with Montgomery. Enough said.

Jed has said that they are looking for the next closer. I'm feeling that they give it to Edwards.

 

[beckdawg]

Twins Reportedly Sign Catcher Jason Castro to Three-Year, $24.5 Million Deal

So, that sorta sets the market value on someone like Montero. They are largely similar players. Castro is probably a poor mans Montero as Montero is a better framer and probably has a higher ceiling on his bat. Montero is making $14 mil if memory serves so he's probably over paid by $5 or so million. But, he's probably more of an asset than i initial thought he would be coming into this offseason.

 

[chibears55]

If you read what I said. I said if they go to FA they should go to Hill. He is putting up TOR production. Longevity is the major problem.

Add to it. A weak buyers market in starting pitching drives up the costs of SP via trade. A strong market lowers trade vale.

Supply and demand.

I have said they should stick with Montgomery. Enough said.

Jed has said that they are looking for the next closer. I'm feeling that they give it to Edwards.

Hill???

He 37 and had a career year last year..
Don't count on him pitching anywhere as good as he did again..

Plus

If they stick with
Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Lackey
As their main 4 in 2017

I'd rather they go with Montgomery (as you say) or another younger arm in the 5 hole..

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[SilenceS]

Could be awhile, owners are threatening lockout if a new agreement isnt met by Dec. 1. The sticking point right now seems to be the owners want an international draft and the players arent agreeing. Some people assumed this would happen this week. Got to get leverage somehow. No panic right now, but could delay the whole off season if they take their time on this.

 

[beckdawg]

Could be awhile, owners are threatening lockout if a new agreement isnt met by Dec. 1. The sticking point right now seems to be the owners want an international draft and the players arent agreeing. Some people assumed this would happen this week. Got to get leverage somehow. No panic right now, but could delay the whole off season if they take their time on this.

Strikes me as odd that the players would make that the true sticking point. For years they've sold out young players in the minors to get what they want at the MLB level. My guess is this is more a move to get something they want which is probably some changes to the QO system or setting the luxury tax threshold higher.

 

[CSF77]

and Soler carried the team in the playoffs in 2015. He needs at bats, but everyone prefers to have Montero, with his weak arm getting at bats as a lefty catcher than Schwarber. Contrares has the raw talent with the golden arm and quickness, but later in the year when he took over as top catcher, the defensive work daily always takes away the offense.

Sorry, the bottom line here is keeping Soler over Montero and that is a no brainer, especially after the comments Montero made after the world series. Everyone thinks Left is the place to hide shitty defenders, but how many times did anyone complain about Soler in right field in 2015 regular season. His laser throws and rifle arm, trying to throw out runners at first base on a single. He played as badly as Schwarber did in the outfield in the playoffs, but thats youth, clearly youth. He was always a CF in Cuba. He has been learning corners and I am sorry, but balls coming off a lefty bat to left field are harder to read than a righty hitting to right. He will mature and eventually, he will start to get hard headed and tell Maillee **** off with this level out the swing shit, when KB won the MVP with the biggest uppercut swing on the team. They need to stop making him a project and let him be the hitter that got him a 30 million dollar deal.

Hill???

He 37 and had a career year last year..
Don't count on him pitching anywhere as good as he did again..

Plus

If they stick with
Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Lackey
As their main 4 in 2017

I'd rather they go with Montgomery (as you say) or another younger arm in the 5 hole..

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I wouldn't expect more than 25 starts. His stuff is not the type that will fall off the cliff with age.

Montgomery needs to control his walks. About it.

 

[CSF77]

Heyward: 28,166,667
Lester 25,000,000
Arrieta 16.8 Projected
Zobrist 16,500,000
Lackey 16,000,000
Montero 14,000,000
Rizzo 7,285,714
Strop 5.5 projected
Rondon 4 projected
Soler 3,666,667
Grimm 1.8 projected

510 min salary. 14 players: 7,140,000

est 2017 payroll: 145,859,048

 

[chibears55]

I wouldn't expect more than 25 starts. His stuff is not the type that will fall off the cliff with age.

Montgomery needs to control his walks. About it.

They need to get younger with SP not dinosaurs...

I'd rather see someone in the 5 hole who can have a chance of being in rotation 2018 after they lose Arrieta and Lackey...
Not saying they have to be a top 3 guy, just a guy who can at the very least fill out the rotation in 2018.


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[beckdawg]

They need to get younger with SP not dinosaurs...

I'd rather see someone in the 5 hole who can have a chance of being in rotation 2018 after they lose Arrieta and Lackey...
Not saying they have to be a top 3 guy, just a guy who can at the very least fill out the rotation in 2018.


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I tend to agree which is why I saw Smyly as an appealing option. I think you'd still likely put Montgomery as the front runner but given the reaction in this thread to Smyly I feel like people are putting a ton of faith in Montgomery and health. Montgomery himself hasn't ever thrown more than ~150 innings in a season. And while he's definitely shown encouraging signs he could start, teams are usually fairly reluctant to move a guy to the pen if they think he'll eventually get there as a starter. I guess from my stand point I'm less concerned with what happens if everything goes right and far more concerned if things don't go according to plan. I really don't ever envision there being a case where you have "too much pitching." It's more of a case when all you have is pitching that you start talking about dealing them a la the mets/rays.

I really don't see the cubs being able to over come ineffectiveness out of Montgomery or an injury internally with what they have at AA/AAA and currently in the pen. I'm not 100% dead set on having to get Smyly but I really haven't seen any suggestions of better options. Hill makes no sense from a cost/age standpoint. I was reading a rays message board and saw someone actually suggest the same trade I did(soler + montero for smyly) presumably as a rays fan which was interesting. Saw another guy suggesting Cobb for Montero + money which might be worth consideration too though like Smyly, Cobb only has 2 more years of control and he's also older(29) and also coming back from missing almost 2 full seasons.

Overall though that seems like the play to me. Don't go insane and burn the entire farm(or a ton of money) on one guy. Try to find some cheaper guys who have some talent but aren't quite there. I mean we've seen what Bosio and the cubs front office has been able to do with guys like Hammel, Feldman and Maholm. Those were guys that had almost exclusively been fringe starters. Guys with a little more talent have worked out far better. Lester has had 2 of his best 4 seasons the past 2 years. Obviously there's Arrieta. Hendricks was a cy young finalist. 2 of Shark's most productive 3 years also came with this group.

 

[CSF77]

I tend to agree which is why I saw Smyly as an appealing option. I think you'd still likely put Montgomery as the front runner but given the reaction in this thread to Smyly I feel like people are putting a ton of faith in Montgomery and health. Montgomery himself hasn't ever thrown more than ~150 innings in a season. And while he's definitely shown encouraging signs he could start, teams are usually fairly reluctant to move a guy to the pen if they think he'll eventually get there as a starter. I guess from my stand point I'm less concerned with what happens if everything goes right and far more concerned if things don't go according to plan. I really don't ever envision there being a case where you have "too much pitching." It's more of a case when all you have is pitching that you start talking about dealing them a la the mets/rays.

I really don't see the cubs being able to over come ineffectiveness out of Montgomery or an injury internally with what they have at AA/AAA and currently in the pen. I'm not 100% dead set on having to get Smyly but I really haven't seen any suggestions of better options. Hill makes no sense from a cost/age standpoint. I was reading a rays message board and saw someone actually suggest the same trade I did(soler + montero for smyly) presumably as a rays fan which was interesting. Saw another guy suggesting Cobb for Montero + money which might be worth consideration too though like Smyly, Cobb only has 2 more years of control and he's also older(29) and also coming back from missing almost 2 full seasons.

Overall though that seems like the play to me. Don't go insane and burn the entire farm(or a ton of money) on one guy. Try to find some cheaper guys who have some talent but aren't quite there. I mean we've seen what Bosio and the cubs front office has been able to do with guys like Hammel, Feldman and Maholm. Those were guys that had almost exclusively been fringe starters. Guys with a little more talent have worked out far better. Lester has had 2 of his best 4 seasons the past 2 years. Obviously there's Arrieta. Hendricks was a cy young finalist. 2 of Shark's most productive 3 years also came with this group.

Cubs would have to eat salary to do it.

Montero 14 mil
Soler 3.67 mil

17.67 mil the Rays take on

VS

Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM

Cubs would have to send over 10 mil here.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209005078/cubs-could-add-pitching-in-kyle-schwarber-deal/

Trade Schwarber? Purely a hypothetical article.... but fun to speculate about none the less.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs would have to eat salary to do it.

Montero 14 mil
Soler 3.67 mil

17.67 mil the Rays take on

VS

Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM

Cubs would have to send over 10 mil here.

I'm sure they would. I doubt it would be over $10 mil which is how much I initially thought. If Castro is roughly an $8 mil player, I'd argue Montero is worth $9 maybe $10 because he's a better framer and he has more potential in his bat. For the sake of argument, let's just say he's priced $5 mil over market. Soler is probably safely under market value for what he'd provide. Now given the Rays are a small market team and given pitching is hard to find I'm sure they'd want more than that $5 mil for other needs but something between $5-10 mil seems like it would be reasonable.

The value roughly works out as well in terms of surplus value. Streamer projects Montero at something like 1.2 fWAR if you gave him a full season which would be around $10 mil. Soler has 4x roughly a 1 fWAR projection which I think is low but that's worth around $25 mil. They have a 2.5 fWAR projection on Smyly next year so that x2 would be roughly $40 mil in value. So, that's probably a "fair" trade adding in the money likely tips it slightly in TB's favor but given the lack of pitching that seems reasonable.

Whether or not you want to trade Soler, I mean I think that's roughly the cost you're going to get for any kind of pitcher with hope. Supposedly the braves were also interested in Castro which would also possibly make sense for a trade. The parameters likely work similarly with them as they also need corner OF's.

 

[Parade_Rain]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209005078/cubs-could-add-pitching-in-kyle-schwarber-deal/

Trade Schwarber? Purely a hypothetical article.... but fun to speculate about none the less.

Can't do it. FirstTimer will come into the thread and take your post out of context a year later.

 

[beckdawg]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209005078/cubs-could-add-pitching-in-kyle-schwarber-deal/

Trade Schwarber? Purely a hypothetical article.... but fun to speculate about none the less.

That article is pretty silly in my eyes. First of all... Carlos Carassco? I mean look the guy was a good pitcher but he's 29 and can't stay healthy. As for Sale and Archer, those would be intriguing but it would likely need to be close to a 1 for 1 swap to be interesting for me and I'm certain neither team would want to do that. Cubs have 6 more years of Schwarber. At 3 fWAR projections, that's $144 mil worth of surplus value minus whatever he ends up earning in arbitration and I think that's probably very conservative. Fangraphs just recently did an article on Sale vs Archer and who's more valuable. They came up with Sale being worth $84.5 mil in surplus value and Archer being worth $128.5 mainly cuz it was 3 years vs 5.

Even if you want to quibble about Schwarber's value and possibly argue winning now is more important, he's astronomically valuable. There aren't many players in baseball right now I'd consider dealing him for even despite his defense. He has an MVP caliber bat. We also saw the cubs turn down the Yankees for Miller and what they instead gave up and what instead the Indians gave up. He's really that good.

 

[CSF77]

I'm sure they would. I doubt it would be over $10 mil which is how much I initially thought. If Castro is roughly an $8 mil player, I'd argue Montero is worth $9 maybe $10 because he's a better framer and he has more potential in his bat. For the sake of argument, let's just say he's priced $5 mil over market. Soler is probably safely under market value for what he'd provide. Now given the Rays are a small market team and given pitching is hard to find I'm sure they'd want more than that $5 mil for other needs but something between $5-10 mil seems like it would be reasonable.

The value roughly works out as well in terms of surplus value. Streamer projects Montero at something like 1.2 fWAR if you gave him a full season which would be around $10 mil. Soler has 4x roughly a 1 fWAR projection which I think is low but that's worth around $25 mil. They have a 2.5 fWAR projection on Smyly next year so that x2 would be roughly $40 mil in value. So, that's probably a "fair" trade adding in the money likely tips it slightly in TB's favor but given the lack of pitching that seems reasonable.

Whether or not you want to trade Soler, I mean I think that's roughly the cost you're going to get for any kind of pitcher with hope. Supposedly the braves were also interested in Castro which would also possibly make sense for a trade. The parameters likely work similarly with them as they also need corner OF's.

The only problem I see is losing Montero with out having a catcher in place.

To be honest here they already lost Ross. I doubt they are willing to go all in on Contreras yet.

Now next year at this point he should be gone. By then you are looking at Caratani with a full year in AAA this year. Him getting a call up to learn like Contreras did. That gives a SH back up that also plays 1B.

So it is more of a timing issue right now. By doing nothing and letting the season play out they lose little. They have a reasonable pay roll with a chunk falling off when guys like Bryant hit Arb1.

 

[beckdawg]

The only problem I see is losing Montero with out having a catcher in place.

I don't entirely disagree here. My thing is more you're paying $14 mil for Montero next year to be a back up guy. I think given Contreras' age he can at least catch the same number of games he did this year which was 112 between AAA and MLB. I think giving him 120 games is probably realistic. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Schwarber catch 10-20 games in 2017. I know most people think he's done there but the doctor has said his knee should be fine to catch going forward. To me it's a bit like Bryant in the OF. You probably don't want Schwarber catching every game or even often for that matter but there's going to be days where it makes sense. And 10 games is like 2 games a month and it's a way of keeping him in the line up while resting Contreras without exposing your back up C. I still think you carry a third catcher however. But I think you'd look to add a purely defensive guy. Someone like A.J. Ellis comes to mind. He's RH so you don't have a typical platoon type split with C but Schwarber is LH so if he were to play any time at C you have a LH option.

The cubs could just stand pat and keep Montero but I think he provides enough value in a trade to consider moving him. I mean no matter what he's the back up. And while he's clearly a pretty good back up, if you're able to trade back ups for useful pieces you're usually in a good place. Even if that means going with Tim Federowicz as the back up or something like that, to me I'd rather use Montero's trade value rather than letting him walk after next year.

 

[CSF77]

I see the value of dumping Montero. They would need a back up regardless.

The real issue is if Contreras gets injured. Is Schwarber catching every day then? Do you bring up A minor leaguer who has never caught any of the pitchers.

Thus is not the same as bringing up a IF or a OF to sub.

So no.

 

[anotheridiot]

The only problem I see is losing Montero with out having a catcher in place.

To be honest here they already lost Ross. I doubt they are willing to go all in on Contreras yet.

Now next year at this point he should be gone. By then you are looking at Caratani with a full year in AAA this year. Him getting a call up to learn like Contreras did. That gives a SH back up that also plays 1B.

So it is more of a timing issue right now. By doing nothing and letting the season play out they lose little. They have a reasonable pay roll with a chunk falling off when guys like Bryant hit Arb1.

Thing is you have Caratini and PJ Higgins right on his heels of the prospect list, so if you want to "waste" a guy bringing him up early and he flops its not that much of a loss. The bottom line is this is John Lesters call. insasmuch as some of us would love John to just pick Schwarber as his catcher, it will be partly his call, and you need to look at the plethora of older backstops that would agree to carry Johns jock. If you move Montero, there is no reason not to think that the cubs will make it for three weeks with Schwarber and Contrares if they wait for a call up.

A.J. Ellis C
Drew Butera C
Steve Clevenger C
Jeff Mathis C
A.J. Pierzynski C
Dioner Navarro C
Jason Castro C Twins 3 $24.5MM $8.17MM
Wilson Ramos C
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Ryan Hanigan C
Alex Avila C
Nick Hundley C
Hank Conger C
Chris Iannetta C
Josh Thole C
Geovany Soto C
Bobby Wilson C
Kurt Suzuki C
Chris Gimenez C

I would also not rule out some deal with the dodgers to move Montero for Ruiz, since he was the first Dodger to come out and hug Maddon and congratulate the team after the NLCS. But on that list you see Saltamaccia, AJ Ellis and Dioner Navarro that would seem to fit Johns prerequisites, Navarro probably top.

 

[CSF77]

I would be fine with Navarro making a 2nd Cubs run.

 

[chibears55]

Starting to think they will trade Montero but the return will be a minor league prospect...

They then can look to bring in a guy like Jarrod Saltalamaccia
SH who played under Epstein and caught both Lester and Lackey...

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