Offseason discussion/rumors

[DanTown]

I see Zobrist playing around 120 games. I think that would be a good amount for him. Keep his body ready for a playoff run. I think Baez gets more than 105. I think he would have to regress at the plate for him to plays 105 or less. I dont think Soler will be on the team all year.

120 means sitting one out every four games where as 135 is sitting one every six. I can't imagine them sitting Zobrist that much. For reference he was at 142 this year.

 

[SilenceS]

I can't see the Cubs deciding to go to Zobrist st the OF in any sort of regular capacity until mid September. They have too many OF and while Zobrist is a worse fielder thanBaez, due to the difference in bats, Zobrist is still a better 2B.

His splits were pretty bad last year in the middle of the season. His OBP was low as well. I can see them sitting him more at age 37.

 

[SilenceS]

120 means sitting one out every four games where as 135 is sitting one every six. I can't imagine them sitting Zobrist that much. For reference he was at 142 this year.

Difference of opinion. He really struggled in the middle of the season. A year older and Baez showing he is a GG at second could make the difference. Also, if Baez bat keeps improving. He may get the OBA, but his OPS would justify his starts. Zobrist had two months of an OPS over .800. He had that one incredible month. I dont see how he gets the same playing time when you have younger guys to let him rest more.

Also, I believe Zobrist played more last year as well because of the injuries to Soler, Schwarber, and Fowler. The Cubs sat him a lot more when they came back. He got that extended all star break- break.

 

[DanTown]

Difference of opinion. He really struggled in the middle of the season. A year older and Baez showing he is a GG at second could make the difference. Also, if Baez bat keeps improving. He may get the OBA, but his OPS would justify his starts. Zobrist had two months of an OPS over .800. He had that one incredible month. I dont see how he gets the same playing time when you have younger guys to let him rest more.

Also, I believe Zobrist played more last year as well because of the injuries to Soler, Schwarber, and Fowler. The Cubs sat him a lot more when they came back. He got that extended all star break- break.

Cubs don't need him to have a ton of power, they're going to like his OBP (especially if he leads off) and his production was directly tied to his BABIP, just like most players. The difference for Zobrist is the elite walk rate he showed every month. That's why he's the likely lead off guy and going to still play a lot. And at no point did the Cubs sit Zobrist that much until they clinched.

And Baez didn't improve with his bat to a level of being even league average. Don't confuse improvement for successs.

 

[SilenceS]

Cubs don't need him to have a ton of power, they're going to like his OBP (especially if he leads off) and his production was directly tied to his BABIP, just like most players. The difference for Zobrist is the elite walk rate he showed every month. That's why he's the likely lead off guy and going to still play a lot. And at no point did the Cubs sit Zobrist that much until they clinched.

And Baez didn't improve with his bat to a level of being even league average. Don't confuse improvement for successs.

I know. Baez playing 4 positions at 23 and having a late start to the year showed who he was with the bat. Not even league average at 94 wRC+. He def. wasnt good when all those injuries happened. He didnt start every game at second base and was one of the most productive hitters in the post season. I see your point now.

I know Zobrist two months of sub low .300 OBP in the middle of the season was what the Cubs were looking for and I know they didnt sit him for an extended period of time after the all star break because he was struggling because he was tired.

I know 37 year old regularly play in the field 135 plus games a year. Locked and loaded.

 

[chibears55]

It has been said over and over again, but for some reason people wont listen to the doctors. Schwarber injury will have no affect on his catching ability. The first year it will be a little uncomfortable because of the rehab, but by year two. It would be like nothing happened if rehab is successful. The Cubs have said they want him to catch once a week. Schwarber has said he is going to catch again.

My thing is why make him catch this year other then in emergency situation or a need to late in a game if they don't have to?

They have Contreras who should start at catcher at least 120+ games..
Montero from the left side, who should be a more then solid back up..

No need to plug Schwarber in as a starting catcher in any game...



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[beckdawg]

Topkin also expanded a bit on Tampa Bay’s interest in Jason Castro, noting that while the catcher’s agent told him recently that the Rays are “in the thick of things” with regard to Castro, it’s not characteristic for the Rays to win a free-agent bidding war. A three-year commitment north of $20MM seems unlikely to come from the Rays, Topkin writes, which leads him to wonder if the team might instead pursue a trade for Miguel Montero, assuming the Cubs would be willing to include some salary in the deal.

Montero would seem to make a ton of sense in a potential Smyly trade. Montero makes $14 mil so the cubs might have to eat some money but something like Soler + Montero + say $10 mil and maybe a few more minor pieces for Smyly and perhaps a few pieces would seem to make a lot of sense. Castro hit .210/.307/.377 so while I'm sure Montero hitting .216/.327/.357 last year doesn't thrill them, it's not like Castro offers them much either. They'd essentially be trading Smyly for 2 potential starters at roughly the same price. Smyly likely gets around $7 mil in arbitration and Montero and Soler make around $17 mil next year. Ray's catchers last year hit .203/.267/.344 as a team and Montero obviously is a good framer. Also for what it's worth, their corner OF consisted primarily of Steven Souza Jr. who hit .247/.303/.409 and Corey Dickerson who hit .245/.293/.469. Soler like Montero doesn't have all the luster in the the world still left on him but we're still talking about a career .258/.328/.434 hitter who's 25 and obviously has upside.

If I'm being honest though, that feels a bit heavy on the cubs side for a pitcher with 4.88/4.49 ERA/FIP last year. That probably means it's close to fair. And this would leave the cubs in the position of having to find a back up catcher. But overall, I think something along these lines makes sense for both teams. Smyly would give the cubs competition for the #5 slot and both him and Montgomery could theoretically be strong BP pieces. From there maybe look at someone like A.J. Ellis or Bobby Wilson as a potential back up catcher on the cheap. Both are decent framers(not as good as Montero but above average) and both are decent against righties which is the side where Contreras hit the worst though even then he wasn't bad vs RHP.

 

[chibears55]

I've been saying this from the start...
Zobrist will get his PT mostly in LF and in RF 3B and 2B..
Being a SH and able to play multiple positions he will be able to give guys days off, get plenty of ABs, and at 37 be able to get plenty of off days for himself...
Added bonus , he'll be one hell of a bat to have on bench for PH....

My guess on 2017 regular lineup..

C. Contreras
1B. Rizzo
2B. Baez
SS. Russell
3B. Bryant
LF. Schwarber
CF. Almora
RF. Heyward

Bench..
Montero
Zobrist
Szczur
IF...
OF...


By the way....
I still think there a chance Fowler returns..
If there a hookup, it probably with years not money

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[DanTown]

I know. Baez playing 4 positions at 23 and having a late start to the year showed who he was with the bat. Not even league average at 94 wRC+. He def. wasnt good when all those injuries happened. He didnt start every game at second base and was one of the most productive hitters in the post season. I see your point now.

I know Zobrist two months of sub low .300 OBP in the middle of the season was what the Cubs were looking for and I know they didnt sit him for an extended period of time after the all star break because he was struggling because he was tired.

I know 37 year old regularly play in the field 135 plus games a year. Locked and loaded.

Zobrist OBP by month
.396
.483
.339
.316
.365
.402

The .339 and .316 month were impacted by a .240 BABIP.

I think it's weird to think the Cubs would sign Zobrist to a 4 year deal then in year 2 cut his playing time to 70-75 percent of the season.

 

[DanTown]

Montero would seem to make a ton of sense in a potential Smyly trade. Montero makes $14 mil so the cubs might have to eat some money but something like Soler + Montero + say $10 mil and maybe a few more minor pieces for Smyly and perhaps a few pieces would seem to make a lot of sense. Castro hit .210/.307/.377 so while I'm sure Montero hitting .216/.327/.357 last year doesn't thrill them, it's not like Castro offers them much either. They'd essentially be trading Smyly for 2 potential starters at roughly the same price. Smyly likely gets around $7 mil in arbitration and Montero and Soler make around $17 mil next year. Ray's catchers last year hit .203/.267/.344 as a team and Montero obviously is a good framer. Also for what it's worth, their corner OF consisted primarily of Steven Souza Jr. who hit .247/.303/.409 and Corey Dickerson who hit .245/.293/.469. Soler like Montero doesn't have all the luster in the the world still left on him but we're still talking about a career .258/.328/.434 hitter who's 25 and obviously has upside.

If I'm being honest though, that feels a bit heavy on the cubs side for a pitcher with 4.88/4.49 ERA/FIP last year. That probably means it's close to fair. And this would leave the cubs in the position of having to find a back up catcher. But overall, I think something along these lines makes sense for both teams. Smyly would give the cubs competition for the #5 slot and both him and Montgomery could theoretically be strong BP pieces. From there maybe look at someone like A.J. Ellis or Bobby Wilson as a potential back up catcher on the cheap. Both are decent framers(not as good as Montero but above average) and both are decent against righties which is the side where Contreras hit the worst though even then he wasn't bad vs RHP.

I'm not really a fan of trading Soler AND Montero for Smyly. Smyly has two years control left, is an extreme flyball pitcher, and does not have the profile to be an effective reliever. If the Cubs are trading Soler, I want someone who has a higher ceiling and/or has more control than two years. I mean your best case scenario is you're paying him in two years.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Zobrist OBP by month
.396
.483
.339
.316
.365
.402

The .339 and .316 month were impacted by a .240 BABIP.

I think it's weird to think the Cubs would sign Zobrist to a 4 year deal then in year 2 cut his playing time to 70-75 percent of the season.

Let alone, he's the original Maddon Super Utility guy.

 

[Omeletpants]

I'm not really a fan of trading Soler AND Montero for Smyly. Smyly has two years control left, is an extreme flyball pitcher, and does not have the profile to be an effective reliever. If the Cubs are trading Soler, I want someone who has a higher ceiling and/or has more control than two years. I mean your best case scenario is you're paying him in two years.

Get real on Soler. Everyone knows we want to trade him because of him extremely limited value. He would have to be one piece of a number to bring back anything. National columnist was talking about him last week and he wasnt complimentary

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not really a fan of trading Soler AND Montero for Smyly. Smyly has two years control left, is an extreme flyball pitcher, and does not have the profile to be an effective reliever. If the Cubs are trading Soler, I want someone who has a higher ceiling and/or has more control than two years. I mean your best case scenario is you're paying him in two years.

Smyly has already shown he's a decent reliever though. In 2013 that's literally all he did for detroit and at 24 had a 2.37/2.31 ERA/FIP. As for being a fly ball pitcher it's mainly just his fastball. His slider on his career has a 44.1% GB rate. His Cutter has a 49.4% GB rate. His change up has a 45.9% GB rate. Those are all above league average. He didn't throw his 2 seam fastball in 2016 but on his career that has a 29.1% GB rate and his 4 seam fastball is at 29.2%.

While I certainly would love a lengthy controlled arm with less warts than Smyly I'm just not sure that's out there for Soler. His bat is obviously super promising but you're having to get buy in on his defense being at least half way acceptable in LF. My take is that Smyly has the tools to be a top of the rotation starter he just needs some work on his fastball. His fastball is left up in the zone too much. His zMov on his 4 seam is 11.6 and his 2 seam is 11.7. For what it's worth, Arrieta had similar issues on his 4 seam before coming to the cubs. in 2013 his 4 seam had a zMov of 10.6 and even his sinker was high at 11.4. And unsurprisingly, his sinker had a 40.9% ground ball rate and his 4 seam had a 38.8%. So, that strikes me as something fixable.

Realistically speaking who would Soler net who's better? For example, I don't think Soler and Montero even get the conversation started on Archer. It might on Odorizzi but is he really a better option? His ground ball rate is 34.5% to Smyly's career 36.3%. His career k/9 is 8.26 to Smyly's 8.71. His career bb/9 is 2.74 to 2.54 for Smyly. His career soft contact rate is 17.9% compared to 20.7% for Smyly. He certainly had a better 2016 than Smyly but I don't think he has as much upside. As for other teams, I doubt the sox really want to deal with the cubs but there's no way Soler gets the conversation started on Sale. Reports I've read suggest the sox don't really want to deal Quintana. Rodon is interesting if available but I doubt Soler is enough for him either. I'm personally not high on Sonny Gray. Think you can make he case for Gray maybe being obtainable with Soler but I'd rather have Smyly personally. Like wise, there is Shelby Miller but I was never that high on him either.

I think of the available starters he has one of the highest ceilings because there aren't many pitchers who have 9+ k/9 potential with a sub 2.5 bb/9. Last season there were 10 starters who had 9+ k/9 and a walk rate under 2.75. They were Jose Fernandez, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Pineda, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Danny Duffy, Chris Sale and Kenta Maeda. Sure Smyly has issues but if he didn't he wouldn't be available because of those players listed, Pineda is probably the only one truly available. Duffy *might* be but that's only because KC might not be able to afford him. And in either case, Duffy and Pineda are 2018 FAs. If you're telling me they can get Smyly for less then by all means but I think that's the realistic price it would cost.

Edit: Verlander is also probably available. When I was writing this I was more thinking about as a building block piece so he slipped my mind. Basic gist was that arms of that caliber are rarely available.

 

[DanTown]

Get real on Soler. Everyone knows we want to trade him because of him extremely limited value. He would have to be one piece of a number to bring back anything. National columnist was talking about him last week and he wasnt complimentary

Then don't trade him if the peak value you get back is two years of control on a pitcher who doesn't profile to be a high value pitcher.

 

[Omeletpants]

Then don't trade him if the peak value you get back is two years of control on a pitcher who doesn't profile to be a high value pitcher.

Soler has no peak value. His BA will be lower than league average for a LF. He needs to be replaced on defense in the 7th inning. He loafs after balls and is a threat to fall on his face at any time. He strikes out a lot. People fall in love with his monster HR he hits once a month---big deal. Guy has little value to anyone

 

[DanTown]

Smyly has already shown he's a decent reliever though. In 2013 that's literally all he did for detroit and at 24 had a 2.37/2.31 ERA/FIP. As for being a fly ball pitcher it's mainly just his fastball. His slider on his career has a 44.1% GB rate. His Cutter has a 49.4% GB rate. His change up has a 45.9% GB rate. Those are all above league average. He didn't throw his 2 seam fastball in 2016 but on his career that has a 29.1% GB rate and his 4 seam fastball is at 29.2%.

First off, it's obvious that guys get ground balls on their breaking pitches.

Secondly, the problem is Smyly throws his fastball over half the time so even if his cutter gets great ground balls, he only throws it 15-20% of the time.

Third, when he was a reliever, he didn't throw many fastballs and had success. He can't rely on off-speed stuff as a starter so that means he's either a successful reliever (hopefully) or an average starter. For two years of control, this isn't a great ceiling.

While I certainly would love a lengthy controlled arm with less warts than Smyly I'm just not sure that's out there for Soler. His bat is obviously super promising but you're having to get buy in on his defense being at least half way acceptable in LF. My take is that Smyly has the tools to be a top of the rotation starter he just needs some work on his fastball. His fastball is left up in the zone too much. His zMov on his 4 seam is 11.6 and his 2 seam is 11.7. For what it's worth, Arrieta had similar issues on his 4 seam before coming to the cubs. in 2013 his 4 seam had a zMov of 10.6 and even his sinker was high at 11.4. And unsurprisingly, his sinker had a 40.9% ground ball rate and his 4 seam had a 38.8%. So, that strikes me as something fixable.

Arrieta also had a major change to going throwing across the body instead of more "traditionally" as well as going to an organization that was going to allow him to throw a cutter. It's cheap and inaccurate to say every starter on a bad team is the "next Arrieta". Everybody has tools, tell me the actual scouting of what he can change here that Tampa either didn't or couldn't change and then I'll buy it.

Realistically speaking who would Soler net who's better? For example, I don't think Soler and Montero even get the conversation started on Archer. It might on Odorizzi but is he really a better option? His ground ball rate is 34.5% to Smyly's career 36.3%. His career k/9 is 8.26 to Smyly's 8.71. His career bb/9 is 2.74 to 2.54 for Smyly. His career soft contact rate is 17.9% compared to 20.7% for Smyly. He certainly had a better 2016 than Smyly but I don't think he has as much upside. As for other teams, I doubt the sox really want to deal with the cubs but there's no way Soler gets the conversation started on Sale. Reports I've read suggest the sox don't really want to deal Quintana. Rodon is interesting if available but I doubt Soler is enough for him either. I'm personally not high on Sonny Gray. Think you can make he case for Gray maybe being obtainable with Soler but I'd rather have Smyly personally. Like wise, there is Shelby Miller but I was never that high on him either.

I think of the available starters he has one of the highest ceilings because there aren't many pitchers who have 9+ k/9 potential with a sub 2.5 bb/9. Last season there were 10 starters who had 9+ k/9 and a walk rate under 2.75. They were Jose Fernandez, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Pineda, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Danny Duffy, Chris Sale and Kenta Maeda. Sure Smyly has issues but if he didn't he wouldn't be available because of those players listed, Pineda is probably the only one truly available. Duffy *might* be but that's only because KC might not be able to afford him. And in either case, Duffy and Pineda are 2018 FAs. If you're telling me they can get Smyly for less then by all means but I think that's the realistic price it would cost.

If Soler doesn't much you net now, you don't trade him. If your argument is Soler can only bring back a lefty swing guy with two years control then don't trade Soler and either he rebuilds his value and he can net you more in a future trade or you're out nothing.

Again, Smyly doesn't truly solve the issue of the long term cost of pitching. EVEN IF he's the next Arrieta, you get all of one extra year of control for that at which point you'd have to decide if he's worth 20+ million a year. That's trading Soler at the valley of his value for a guy who doesn't solve a real need either this year or beyond.

 

[DanTown]

Soler has no peak value. His BA will be lower than league average for a LF. He needs to be replaced on defense in the 7th inning. He loafs after balls and is a threat to fall on his face at any time. He strikes out a lot. People fall in love with his monster HR he hits once a month---big deal. Guy has little value to anyone

If I hold your premise to be true that he has little value to anyone in a trade, why trade him? I'm not arguing he is going to get better; I'm arguing it's stupid to sell low on Soler for two years of control on a pitcher that doesn't solve a problem of cheap and young arms.

 

[Omeletpants]

If I hold your premise to be true that he has little value to anyone in a trade, why trade him? I'm not arguing he is going to get better; I'm arguing it's stupid to sell low on Soler for two years of control on a pitcher that doesn't solve a problem of cheap and young arms.

You trade him so you free up money and a roster spot. The guy has no place on a championship team. He is the last guy on the team you want with the game on the line. If there is any hope for him it's as a DH where he can go .240/18/59

 

[SilenceS]

You trade him so you free up money and a roster spot. The guy has no place on a championship team. He is the last guy on the team you want with the game on the line. If there is any hope for him it's as a DH where he can go .240/18/59

He was on a championship team

 

[Omeletpants]

He was on a championship team

as was Munenori Kawasaki