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beckdawg
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If I could tell you specifics of what to change I sure wouldn't be here. All I'm saying is there's a lot of potential in the guy and that if a team can figure out why he can't keep his fastball down that Smyly has a huge ceiling because of the stuff I've mentioned. To say "everyone has tools" is frankly inaccurate. For example, let's take Odorizzi again. His best out pitch is either his 4 seam fastball or his 2 seam at 27.6% and 27.5% k rates. On his career, Smyly's best out pitch was his slider with a 34.6% k rate and that was even higher in 2016 at 38.6%. And keep in mind this is when a guy is struggling. If you figure out his fastball issues that number likely climbs as he is less predictable. Having a dominant out pitch and not walking guys is a good recipe for success.
I don't particularly think that's feasible though. For one thing, the cubs already have a crowded outfield. So finding him playing time to rebuild his value isn't going to be easy. And on top of that, most of Soler's issue in my eyes lies with his defense. If he's just a poor defender then there's always going to be a ceiling on his value. I'm not sure him having a full season as a decent hitter changes that value because presumably if you're considering him right now you believe in the bat already. But you look at guys like Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter and Jay Bruce as examples of OF who had massive power and were largely really decent hitters but didn't have great trade value because they were poor defenders.
The other aspect of this is the cubs only have control of Soler for 4 more years. At some point you have to shit or get off the pot with a guy. If he burns another year away on the cubs bench, he has less value. My view is you turn him into something useful for 2017 because honestly the cubs can replace what he'll give them internally. Finding a decent LH #5 starter/reliever is more difficult.
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Your previous post said "team", no mention of which roster
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Don't move goal post, you said Soler isn't on a championship team. He was in fact on a 25 man roster for a championship team
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Police may be charging 4 Rangers prospects included is Rougned Odor. The younger brother of Rougned Odor of the same name. No, I did not type any of that wrong.
Oh and the alleged crime is hazing. They hog tied and pulled out another player penis in some kind of weird shit for the day things.
Oh and the alleged crime is hazing. They hog tied and pulled out another player penis in some kind of weird shit for the day things.
Zvbxrpl
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DanTown
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My point is "Arrieta" had tangible changes to make. Saying "he's a former top prospect, he has hopes to be better" is useless. There are literally dozens of these guys in baseball every year. You don't get to compare the EXCEPTION to the rule (players having strange career shifts after prolonged MLB use) to every player on a team.
This is a weird paragraph where you paint a picture as to why the Rays shouldn't do this deal. If this was true (Smyly has untapped potential to be a huge starter, Soler's value is going to drop), what makes Tampa do the deal?
Again, trading Soler in this package makes the 2017 and 18 Cubs probably marginally better but doesn't really help beyond that. I'd rather trade Jorge for a younger guy with more upside/downside OR hold him and hope the value rebounds. Right now we can say "he doesn't have a path to AB's" but he's a good spring for him + a poor spring for a guy like Almora or Baez away from having very regular playing time. Or an injury. I have no idea what is going to happen in six months; selling him now is a poor use of resources. Especially because the depth behind him in terms of MLB OF is Matt Sczcur.
CSF77
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Smyly really is not the type of pitcher I prefer. I like Lefties with big depth to their breaking pitch. That is why I'm not a huge fan or Travis Wood and prefer Montgomery over him.
If they were going to go after a lefty I would rather them go after Rich Hill and give him a few years. He is peaking right now and they have some close to major league ready arms if him and Lackey need DL time.
But I prefer Montgomery over most out there. He has the tools to be pretty damn good and he will be 28. So him figuring it out bodes well for the Cubs.
If they were going to go after a lefty I would rather them go after Rich Hill and give him a few years. He is peaking right now and they have some close to major league ready arms if him and Lackey need DL time.
But I prefer Montgomery over most out there. He has the tools to be pretty damn good and he will be 28. So him figuring it out bodes well for the Cubs.
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I said he doesnt belong
CSF77
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Szczur was top 2 in ph's. Add to it he fields all 3 spots.
A OF of Schwarber, Almora and Heyward with Szczur and a LH bat that can play CF is not bad at all.
At that point you have that RH bat on the bench that is proven vs lefties.
Soler will be traded. I doubt they rush it unless a offer comes up that they can not pass up on.
My biggest problem with him is he is fragile. He can never get any momentum going because he ends up on the DL. Left ankle 2015. Hammy 2016. Went down in the minors. It is hard not to label him injury prone right now.
DanTown
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Read my post, I'm clearly fine with dealing Soler; my issue is the package being for Smyly.
I also don't think you trade him just to trade him.
beckdawg
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I'm not sure what you want me to say here. I'm not a MLB pitching coach. I can't give you a specific change that will make a player different. I'm guessing not every MLB pitching coach can do that either. I'm simply pointing out a player who has potential held back by warts. There's two ways you can acquire players. You either pay through the nose for a proven player with relatively few flaws or you attempt to identify a player with potential who has some things wrong with him. It's my belief that the cubs organization is good at fixing problems with pitchers. If they didn't think they could fix Smyly then they would never make the trade and the discussion is a moot point. Neither you nor I will ever know whether or not they feel that way. I just don't see the point in bringing that up. There's plenty of young pitchers who struggled early in their careers only to figure out in their late 20's. Arrieta isn't the only example here. And it's not even like Smyly has been horrible throughout his career. From 2013-15 he was quite productive. In those 3 years he posted 4.9 fWAR in 295.2 IP and a 2.98/3.43 ERA/FIP. That's roughly a 3.3 fWAR pace per year if he'd pitched 200 innings.
Why would Tampa do it? The same reason the cubs would. Soler has potential that he is unlikely to meet with the cubs and you're trading from an area of depth to an area you are weak. Tampa also can utilize the DH if they decide his outfield defense isn't good enough. Additionally, reports have been they need to cut salary. A trade like Montero and Soler(plus money) for Smyly allows them to fill two roster slots with decent players for the price of one.
His value rebounds to what? Like generally speaking most scouting services only ever had him in the 25-40ish range in terms of top 100 prospects. And that was when people expected him to be average on defense which he hasn't been. I'm not Omelet levels of down on Soler but corner outfielders with poor defense have limited trade value. Even if we're talking best case scenario for Soler turning things around in 2017 it's gotta be like .270/.340/.450 with say 15 HRs over say 300 PAs. I mean we're basically saying his best case is J.D. Martinez + 2 years of control. That isn't going to net you a #1/2 starter with no issues be it MLB ready or prospect. You could perhaps involve him in a larger trade but that then becomes quite a bit more difficult to pull off. For example, I can't imagine Happ + Soler's best case numbers + Montero + money gets you say Archer. I'd imagine you'd need at least 2 more noteworthy names. And other than Archer and Sale who's really out there that is worth expanding the trade to this size?
As for only making the 2017/18 cubs better, I guess I don't see your point here either. First of all, presumably if he were to pitch well in 2017 the cubs would obviously attempt to re-sign him like they obviously have tried with Arrieta. Whether or not that actually occurs is a problem for 2 years from now. The problem they have today is who replaces lackey's spot in the rotation in 2018? Johnson doesn't look like a starter right now. Maybe Underwood breaks through but he's not super exciting right now. Maybe Clifton is ready but that would be pushing him pretty fast considering he hasn't pitched at AA yet. I guess there is Ryan Williams but he doesn't have huge potential. He's more a #4/5 type. That's also assuming Arrieta re-signs which he might not. And there's also the question of how the bullpen plays out with LHP in 2017 which Smyly could be a LH weapon in(.200/.243/.334 with .253 wOBA against LH batters in his career).
Ultimately, the cubs really need to find pitching this offseason or the matter is just going to compound after 2017. And it might happen before then if they happen to have an injury in their rotation. As things stand today, if one of their top 5 starters goes down your options at starter are fairly iffy. Realistically you have to plan to go 7-8 starters deep in depth just in case. Right now there's Zastryzny and Ryan Williams. I really don't look forward to the idea of Aaron Brooks, Jake Buchanan, Pierce Johnson, and potentially Duane Underwood throwing meaningful innings next year. So, if you're stance is the cubs can do better than Smyly fine but I'd really like to know who that is because I really don't see waiting as the move. They need pitching now. And if the cubs can get Smyly for Montero + something less than Soler that's fine too but if I'm TB I'm not letting him go for less than that. In my view, Smyly comes in as the guy who is the cheapest with the highest upside and who can still be useful even if it's out of the bullpen because he's dominant against LH batters and if it's one thing the cubs don't have right now it's that guy in their BP. I'm not saying he doesn't have some issues that need addressing but he wouldn't be available if he didn't have those issues.
beckdawg
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Two things. First, you realize Rich Hill is going to be 37 at the start of next season right? I'd be quiet dubious in giving him "a few years." And even if he's as good as he's been the past year or two, he hasn't thrown more than the 110.1 innings he threw this year since 2007. In other words, you can't count on him to throw 200 innings. On top of that Hill is easily going to get $15 mil in his market and might push $20 mil. I strongly doubt the cubs have that sort of money to spend since most of their talk coming out of the WS is that they spent 2 years worth of money last offseason.
As for Smyly vs Montgomery, I think you're looking at this the wrong way. It doesn't have to be an either or. It's about building depth. You could literally just use Smyly as a LOOGY and get value out of him because he's been quite good at that. So, if Montgomery pitches great as the #5 you're not really losing anything. Like wise, if the cubs do figure something out with Smyly and acquire him, you don't lose out by playing Montgomery in the bullpen because he's still a useful weapon. And more to the point, if a starter goes down it's more about Smyly/Montgomery vs whomever would be the current #6 starter and as things stand I'd rather see Smyly than what the cubs have. Maddon also employed a 6th starter to limit innings late in the year. He fits that role quite well.
No matter if the cubs acquire Smyly or not, chances are that someone is going to play that sort of long man role for them. Wood was basically that guy to start the season until they acquired Montgomery who took over it. Call me skeptical but I'm not really sold on handing that to Zastryzny and I'm not really sure Ryan Williams will make the team because he's RHP and doesn't function in the bullpen as well.
anotheridiot
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and Soler carried the team in the playoffs in 2015. He needs at bats, but everyone prefers to have Montero, with his weak arm getting at bats as a lefty catcher than Schwarber. Contrares has the raw talent with the golden arm and quickness, but later in the year when he took over as top catcher, the defensive work daily always takes away the offense.
Sorry, the bottom line here is keeping Soler over Montero and that is a no brainer, especially after the comments Montero made after the world series. Everyone thinks Left is the place to hide shitty defenders, but how many times did anyone complain about Soler in right field in 2015 regular season. His laser throws and rifle arm, trying to throw out runners at first base on a single. He played as badly as Schwarber did in the outfield in the playoffs, but thats youth, clearly youth. He was always a CF in Cuba. He has been learning corners and I am sorry, but balls coming off a lefty bat to left field are harder to read than a righty hitting to right. He will mature and eventually, he will start to get hard headed and tell Maillee **** off with this level out the swing shit, when KB won the MVP with the biggest uppercut swing on the team. They need to stop making him a project and let him be the hitter that got him a 30 million dollar deal.
CSF77
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I believe that they are approaching it from a depth perspective. The added Leatherstitch and got Rollins off wavers. That adds to Zastryzny, Concepcion and Rosscup. All are O the 40 man now.
Williams is not on the 40 man so they would have to adjust for him if the need comes up.
Johnson is on it so I would expect him fighting for a pen spot.
MLBTR believed that he could get 3/60. He is 37 but has low miles on his arm. From injury to years in the pen he really didn't put wear on it. Add to it his primary pitch is a slow curve and he then changes speed with it. His fastball is more like Hendricks at that point where it looks faster than it is.
Just look at his results. They speak for them self. His issue was blisters this year. Not age concerning injuries.
Seeing how the market is it is not a buyers market. This leads into bad one sided trades.
CSF77
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The Cubs have Schwarber in left, Almora in center and Heyward in right. Jed has said that they are looking for a LH complement to Almora.
Theo said they want to see Soler meet his potential with them.
What I see is Soler will see limited action. Joe went to Baez at 2B and Zo at LF for the most part. With Schwarber healthy he would be even more limited in his role.
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It took a week, but the news finally broke that the cubs released Spencer Patton a week ago. Those 40 man roster spots are at a premium with this club.
beckdawg
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FWIW, Rollins is already gone. They tried to sneak him thru waivers and the Rangers claimed him. Also, what you're talking about are all bullpen arms not additional starting depth. Johnson could in theory be a starter but his control has been far too bad.
Also, if it's not a buyers market, how does that make FA any more reasonable? If you think the cubs are getting Hill I think you're in for a rude awakening because as much as the cubs may need him there's 5-10 teams who need him far worse. He's literally the only worth while starter on the market unless you're talking about a lower end guy like Hammel. The only reason we're not hearing much right now about FA rumors is teams likely are more concerned with the CBA that expires in 9 days. It really wouldn't surprise me if he gets $25 mil/year over 3 years from someone.
anotheridiot
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well if you believe Theo saying he wants to see Soler reach his potential with the club, you should believe that Theo is not done with Schwarber as a catcher either. It just makes no sense to think Heyward will turn it around for sure and wont continue to hit his weight.
CSF77
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I'm not on the bandwagon that believes Schwarber is a emergency catcher only. He lost a year and needs to catch games. They will most likely match him up with Montgomery and Montero catches Lackey. Contreras catches the other 3.