Offseason discussion/rumors

[CSF77]

The Yankees, Mariners, and Cubs were among the organizations that pursued free agent lefty Brett Cecil, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Cecil ultimately struck a four-year, $30.5MM pact with the Cardinals.

Those three teams figure as plausible landing spots for other top southpaws. Indeed, per Sherman, the Yankees are looking to bolster their left-handed setup corps. One possibility, he says, is high-K southpaw Boone Logan, who played in New York before departing for the Rockies and is now again a free agent. Though the report doesn’t further address the situations in Seattle and Chicago, both organizations lack impact lefties in their otherwise solid bullpens and could sensibly pursue alternatives after missing on Cecil.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/yankees-notes-headley-gardner-cespedes-beltran-hammel.html

There was a key quote here:

Powered by his defense and a tremendous year on the basepaths (3.9 on Fangraphs’ Baserunning metric), Headley was worth 2.6 fWAR in 2016, which made him more than worth his $13MM salary. The veteran will earn $13MM in each of the next two seasons and turns 33 in May, however, so it makes sense that New York is at least open to listening to offers for Headley’s services as part of the club’s continuing effort to get both younger and cheaper. Since the Yankees don’t have another obvious third base option immediately ready to step in, trading Headley could be a precursor to another move to adding a third baseman.

Now the Cubs have 2 guys blocked.

Jeimer Candelario | Rank: 4 (Preseason: 7)
Team: Chicago Cubs ETA: 2017
Position: 3B Age: 22 DOB: 11/24/1993
Bats: S Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 210 lb.
Signed: Sept. 29, 2010 - CHC
Other Lists: Top 100 Prospects (#99), Top 10 3B Prospects (#4)

There is a clear match up here. Jamier will never start at 3B as a Cub.

But he could elsewhere.

A guy I would like to see:

Gardner is also entering his age-33 season, and is guaranteed $25MM over the next two seasons (counting the $2MM buyout of his $12.5MM club option for 2019). The veteran outfielder hit .261/.351/.362 with seven home runs over 634 PA and ended up with a pretty similar season to Headley — 2.4 fWAR built on excellent defense and baserunning moreso than hitting. Aside from his injury-shortened 2012, Gardner has produced at least 2.3 fWAR in every season since 2009, so it’s no surprise that teams looking for an outfield upgrade have been in touch with Cashman.

If Gardner is dealt, the Yankees could replace him in a big way in left field with Yoenis Cespedes. Cashman confirmed that he had spoken to Cespedes’ representatives and that he expects more talks to take place now that the Yankees have freed up some payroll by dealing Brian McCann.


So the Yanks are looking to free up payroll and add some younger parts. They are looking to trade Headley and Gardner. They want to add Chapman and Cespedes. I don't blame them here.

So looking at it is it worth dealing with them again? Gardner would fit in CF and would fit as a lead off. It would put Almora on the short end of the stick but that was expected when Theo went and said they were looking for a LH CF bat.

IDK it sounds like a match up.

 

[beckdawg]

Arizona Diamondbacks ✔ @Dbacks
The #Dbacks have acquired pitcher Taijuan Walker and infielder Ketel Marte from the Mariners for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis.

Don't know much about Haniger and Curtis but Haniger was AZ's #21 prospect. Marte was once a fairly notable prospect for the M's. This trade feels pretty good from the dback's perspective considering they got Segura for next to nothing last year.

 

[CSF77]

Walker has not met his potential but if he meets it this deal is one sided

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/yankees-notes-headley-gardner-cespedes-beltran-hammel.html

There was a key quote here:

Powered by his defense and a tremendous year on the basepaths (3.9 on Fangraphs’ Baserunning metric), Headley was worth 2.6 fWAR in 2016, which made him more than worth his $13MM salary. The veteran will earn $13MM in each of the next two seasons and turns 33 in May, however, so it makes sense that New York is at least open to listening to offers for Headley’s services as part of the club’s continuing effort to get both younger and cheaper. Since the Yankees don’t have another obvious third base option immediately ready to step in, trading Headley could be a precursor to another move to adding a third baseman.

Now the Cubs have 2 guys blocked.

Jeimer Candelario | Rank: 4 (Preseason: 7)
Team: Chicago Cubs ETA: 2017
Position: 3B Age: 22 DOB: 11/24/1993
Bats: S Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 210 lb.
Signed: Sept. 29, 2010 - CHC
Other Lists: Top 100 Prospects (#99), Top 10 3B Prospects (#4)

There is a clear match up here. Jamier will never start at 3B as a Cub.

But he could elsewhere.

A guy I would like to see:

Gardner is also entering his age-33 season, and is guaranteed $25MM over the next two seasons (counting the $2MM buyout of his $12.5MM club option for 2019). The veteran outfielder hit .261/.351/.362 with seven home runs over 634 PA and ended up with a pretty similar season to Headley — 2.4 fWAR built on excellent defense and baserunning moreso than hitting. Aside from his injury-shortened 2012, Gardner has produced at least 2.3 fWAR in every season since 2009, so it’s no surprise that teams looking for an outfield upgrade have been in touch with Cashman.

If Gardner is dealt, the Yankees could replace him in a big way in left field with Yoenis Cespedes. Cashman confirmed that he had spoken to Cespedes’ representatives and that he expects more talks to take place now that the Yankees have freed up some payroll by dealing Brian McCann.


So the Yanks are looking to free up payroll and add some younger parts. They are looking to trade Headley and Gardner. They want to add Chapman and Cespedes. I don't blame them here.

So looking at it is it worth dealing with them again? Gardner would fit in CF and would fit as a lead off. It would put Almora on the short end of the stick but that was expected when Theo went and said they were looking for a LH CF bat.

IDK it sounds like a match up.

I've already been done this road but I don't see the matchup with the cubs and Gardner unless the Yankees are eating most of his money. He's a 33 year old OF who can't really play CF effectively. Last time he played substantial innings there was 2015 and he had a -5.6 UZR. Ignoring that, if the Yankees wanted Candelario surely they would have demanded him in the Chapman deal.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Candelario moved but trading for an OFer when you have Schwarber, Soler, Almora, Heyward, Szczar as well as Zobrist and Bryant on the major league roster who can play OF makes little sense. On top of that, some would argue Happ isn't really a 2B and is more of a corner OF. Eloy Jimenez is on a pretty fast track to the majors. Mark Zagunis is in AAA and rakes although he's more of a bench guy. Donnie Dewees is likely in AA to start 2017. D.J. Wilson and Eddy Martinez are also among the cubs top 15 prospects. In other words, the last thing the cubs need is another OF.

I realize there's been talk of platooning Almora with someone rather than give him the job but there's a world of difference between finding someone with decent LHP splits who can play CF and trading for a guy who's a poor defender in CF playing most of the time next to a likely very poor defender in Schwarber and who's making $12.5 mil next year, $11.5 in 2018 and has a $12.5 mil/$2 mil buy out in 2019. I really don't see your infatuation with him. He hit .247/.313/.331 vs LHP and .268/.368/.377 vs RHP. Almora's splits were .262/.279/.548 and .286/.324/.400. He doesn't even really complement Almora that well and you're not going to start him in CF with his defense over Almora regularly. If you're going to complement Almora you need someone who hits LHP not someone who hits RHP well because that's what Almora did best. That's why media has linked them to a guy like Jon Jay who hit .308/.378/.374 vs LHP last year. None of that is to say Gardner is a bad player but he is a much better fit for a team needing a LFer.

 

[chibears55]

.That's why media has linked them to a guy like Jon Jay who hit .308/.378/.374 vs LHP last year.

FWIW I brought up Jon Jay first ?



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[CSF77]

I like Jay also. I'm looking at it as they need a legit lead off. Zobrist is not going to be able to be a every day guy there and there is no one else who fits the profile.

Fowler lead the team with a .393 OBA. Zobrist was 2nd with a .382. So he fits the profile but for 162 games?

He played 147 games. As a lead off you are pushing to numbers up to 600+ AB's.

Almora is not a lead off. Career minor league. OBA was .322. He really fits Castro's profile with out the erratic D.

So this is a major problem looking into next year.

Also the mention of Happ ending up a LF. Maybe he will. He said that he is comfortable at 2B now. I honestly see him as a young Zobrist. A sub that rests the regulars. He has no plus D spot but is a ideal lead off and can move around to get his time in. I really do not see him being a starter.

To be honest they really should resign Fowler and then pack together some players to address the other glaring needs.

 

[beckdawg]

To be honest they really should resign Fowler and then pack together some players to address the other glaring needs.

I think this is more realistic than people largely think right now. Fowler and Heyward are really good friends. And obviously Fowler seemed to enjoy his time here with the cubs. So, it wouldn't shock me if he'd take slightly less money to sign with the cubs. My guess is if he will take $15 mil/year over 4 years or less the cubs could meet that.

As for what the cubs do if not Fowler, my guess is their hope would be for Zobrist to be the primary lead off hitter. He obviously wont play everyday. My guess would be they hope Heyward bounces back. If he does, he fits the profile of a lead off guy. If Russell progresses a little he wouldn't be bad either. So long as Zobrist is the primary guy for most of the season I think you can sort of piece together who leads off in days when he's out. You could even do some stranger things like hitting Schwarber first.

 

[CSF77]

I think this is more realistic than people largely think right now. Fowler and Heyward are really good friends. And obviously Fowler seemed to enjoy his time here with the cubs. So, it wouldn't shock me if he'd take slightly less money to sign with the cubs. My guess is if he will take $15 mil/year over 4 years or less the cubs could meet that.

As for what the cubs do if not Fowler, my guess is their hope would be for Zobrist to be the primary lead off hitter. He obviously wont play everyday. My guess would be they hope Heyward bounces back. If he does, he fits the profile of a lead off guy. If Russell progresses a little he wouldn't be bad either. So long as Zobrist is the primary guy for most of the season I think you can sort of piece together who leads off in days when he's out. You could even do some stranger things like hitting Schwarber first.

Heyward pulls a 10% walk rate. Ive thought about him leading off in CF with Zo as the RH lead off. The main problem I've seen with it is the bottom of the line up becomes RH. Heyward was a LH bat that split up Russell, Contreras and Baez.

 

[chibears55]

I think this is more realistic than people largely think right now. Fowler and Heyward are really good friends. And obviously Fowler seemed to enjoy his time here with the cubs. So, it wouldn't shock me if he'd take slightly less money to sign with the cubs. My guess is if he will take $15 mil/year over 4 years or less the cubs could meet that.

As for what the cubs do if not Fowler, my guess is their hope would be for Zobrist to be the primary lead off hitter. He obviously wont play everyday. My guess would be they hope Heyward bounces back. If he does, he fits the profile of a lead off guy. If Russell progresses a little he wouldn't be bad either. So long as Zobrist is the primary guy for most of the season I think you can sort of piece together who leads off in days when he's out. You could even do some stranger things like hitting Schwarber first.

I'd like that but I just don't think the Cubs want to commit to the years

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[WindyCity]

Heyward pulls a 10% walk rate. Ive thought about him leading off in CF with Zo as the RH lead off. The main problem I've seen with it is the bottom of the line up becomes RH. Heyward was a LH bat that split up Russell, Contreras and Baez.

If you brought Fowler back for 3-4 years would you look at Almora as the centre piece of a potential deal for pitching?

 

[Omeletpants]

If you brought Fowler back for 3-4 years would you look at Almora as the centre piece of a potential deal for pitching?

If you are expecting Almora to be the centerpiece in a trade for pitching it would be a 5th starter type. Almora doesnt have the upside for anything more

 

[TL1961]

I've already been done this road but I don't see the matchup with the cubs and Gardner unless the Yankees are eating most of his money. He's a 33 year old OF who can't really play CF effectively. Last time he played substantial innings there was 2015 and he had a -5.6 UZR. Ignoring that, if the Yankees wanted Candelario surely they would have demanded him in the Chapman deal.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Candelario moved but trading for an OFer when you have Schwarber, Soler, Almora, Heyward, Szczar as well as Zobrist and Bryant on the major league roster who can play OF makes little sense. On top of that, some would argue Happ isn't really a 2B and is more of a corner OF. Eloy Jimenez is on a pretty fast track to the majors. Mark Zagunis is in AAA and rakes although he's more of a bench guy. Donnie Dewees is likely in AA to start 2017. D.J. Wilson and Eddy Martinez are also among the cubs top 15 prospects. In other words, the last thing the cubs need is another OF.

I realize there's been talk of platooning Almora with someone rather than give him the job but there's a world of difference between finding someone with decent LHP splits who can play CF and trading for a guy who's a poor defender in CF playing most of the time next to a likely very poor defender in Schwarber and who's making $12.5 mil next year, $11.5 in 2018 and has a $12.5 mil/$2 mil buy out in 2019. I really don't see your infatuation with him. He hit .247/.313/.331 vs LHP and .268/.368/.377 vs RHP. Almora's splits were .262/.279/.548 and .286/.324/.400. He doesn't even really complement Almora that well and you're not going to start him in CF with his defense over Almora regularly. If you're going to complement Almora you need someone who hits LHP not someone who hits RHP well because that's what Almora did best. That's why media has linked them to a guy like Jon Jay who hit .308/.378/.374 vs LHP last year. None of that is to say Gardner is a bad player but he is a much better fit for a team needing a LFer.

I agree with you. I want no part of Gardner. I believe he's everything we don't need. Over 30, not good D, Not cheap....play Almora. The reason Fowler may be elsewhere is our crowded OF. Adding Gardner and losing Fowler keeps it crowded, and worse.

But as for the bolded part above, I would say it makes no sense that Yankees would have demanded Candelario in the Chapman trade when they got a much better prospect in Torres.

 

[TL1961]

FWIW I brought up Jon Jay first ��



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OMG. Jon Jay!

I live in St. Louis, and he was a polarizing figure. Many fans were thrilled when he left. One friend disliked him so intensely, I threatened to buy him a Jon Jay Padres jersey.

 

[chibears55]

OMG. Jon Jay!

I live in St. Louis, and he was a polarizing figure. Many fans were thrilled when he left. One friend disliked him so intensely, I threatened to buy him a Jon Jay Padres jersey.

What didn't they like about him?
He put up good numbers except his last year with them
Or
Was it that they didn't like, cause he slumpped off that last year

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[CSF77]

If you brought Fowler back for 3-4 years would you look at Almora as the centre piece of a potential deal for pitching?

Toss in. If his D was league avg he would not cut it in the majors. The only reason why we talk about him is due to his D.

We have seen that OBA > BA.

 

[beckdawg]

If you brought Fowler back for 3-4 years would you look at Almora as the centre piece of a potential deal for pitching?

I think no. I mean one of the reasons I like Almora so much is that even though he may have starter potential you can get away with him being a really good bench player. In my estimation he's almost ideal for a bench player because he has ok speed which gives him some use as a pinch runner type, he plays all 3 OF positions extremely well and he's a high contact guy. I feel like generally when you're bringing in a pinch hitter it's not necessarily to draw walks. Often times it's because you got a guy or two on and you don't want a pitcher hitting in that situation.

Additionally, the great thing about what's above is that he can grow into the role of a starter. Think it's fairly obvious to most that he isn't going to be an instant bat like most of the recent rookies have but you give him a year or two to settle and maybe he's ready to steal Fowlers job. And if you get Fowler at a reasonable price you now have a decent piece to move.

Of course if the right trade is out there I don't think you would have to say no.

 

[beckdawg]

But as for the bolded part above, I would say it makes no sense that Yankees would have demanded Candelario in the Chapman trade when they got a much better prospect in Torres.

My point was more Torres + Candelario rather than the 4 players they got.

 

[beckdawg]

Toss in. If his D was league avg he would not cut it in the majors. The only reason why we talk about him is due to his D.

We have seen that OBA > BA.

Not entirely sure that's an accurate representation. The Royals won the world series last year with a ton of guys who play like Almora. In my estimation you would ideally having a mix of high OBP guys at the top of the line up and guys with good contact rates below them. Honestly I'm more concerned with K rate than walk rate. There's numerous examples of guys who can survive as regulars with a 4-5% walk rate so long as they have a 10-13% k rate. Walks generally speaking are better than balls in play but I think there's situations where the latter is better and the cubs often struggled getting guys home once they were on base because they weren't great a putting the ball in play.

 

[beckdawg]

What didn't they like about him?
He put up good numbers except his last year with them
Or
Was it that they didn't like, cause he slumpped off that last year

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My guess here is more that he was a starter there and what he gives you isn't fantastic in that regard. Seems fine as a bench guy to me.