Offseason discussion/rumors

[chibears55]

There was much more Rosenthal’s piece, though, that was a little more appropriate for a Lukewarm Stove. For example, Rosenthal says the Cubs are looking for a left-handed hitting center fielder*to complement Albert Almora Jr. so that the whole weight of that position isn’t immediately thrust upon him.

Exactly what I was thinking they'll do..

They got the Championship in their back pocket now...

So, might as well go with Almora in CF and see if he can run with it and protect him with a LH CFer..

Also open up being able to trade Soler for pitching and using Zobrist at LF RF and 2B.

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[beckdawg]

http://nypost.com/2016/11/19/the-tightrope-yankees-walk-with-their-4-item-offseason-wish-list/

However, if the Yanks trade Brett Gardner and the two years at $25 million he is owed, then it not only opens an outfield spot, but there is more money to redirect. It also is possible they could seize on a weak starter market and deal Michael Pineda (due about $8 million in his final arbitration season).

Depending on price Pineda is pretty interesting from a peripherals stand point. I can't imagine he'd go for astronomical prices given his career ERA/FIP is 3.99/3.42. But just as a for instance here, his K/9 bb/9 last season was 10.61 and 2.72. Chris Archer's last season was 10.42 and 3.00. Archer has more going for him and has a much longer team control.

 

[CSF77]

http://nypost.com/2016/11/19/the-tightrope-yankees-walk-with-their-4-item-offseason-wish-list/



Depending on price Pineda is pretty interesting from a peripherals stand point. I can't imagine he'd go for astronomical prices given his career ERA/FIP is 3.99/3.42. But just as a for instance here, his K/9 bb/9 last season was 10.61 and 2.72. Chris Archer's last season was 10.42 and 3.00. Archer has more going for him and has a much longer team control.

Gardner
2017 33 New York Yankees $12,500,000
2018 34 New York Yankees $11,500,000
2019 35 New York Yankees *$12,500,000 $12.5M Team Option, $2M Buyout


IDK maybe something to look at. These teams are now in bed with each other and you never know what the Yanks would ask just to free up payroll here.

 

[beckdawg]

Gardner
2017 33 New York Yankees $12,500,000
2018 34 New York Yankees $11,500,000
2019 35 New York Yankees *$12,500,000 $12.5M Team Option, $2M Buyout


IDK maybe something to look at. These teams are now in bed with each other and you never know what the Yanks would ask just to free up payroll here.

I don't see the fit. If the cubs truly want a LH option to platoon with Almora I can't see a rationale to not use Heyward in CF. Schwarber is going to play over 100 games in LF no matter what assuming he's healthy. Defensive issues be damned, his bat is MVP caliber. From there, Heyward has got to be basically an every day player. His contract and defense make him someone you really need in the line up hopefully batting more like 2015.

After that though the roster becomes a bit murky. Almora needs ABs. Baez needs ABs. Zobrist needs ABs. And that's assuming they find some trade to get rid of Soler for pitching because if they don't Soler needs ABs too. I think what we're going to see is a 3 player rotation for 2 slots. Almora and Heyward probably should split some time at CF. On days where Heyward is in CF you'll likely see Bryant or Zobrist in RF and Baez at 3B or 2B. On days where Almora is in CF you'll probably see Zobrist at 2B and Baez on the bench. I'm guessing here but I think more often than not you'd see Baez out there rather than Almora. Maybe something like 50-60 games with Almora in CF vs 100-110 of Baez at 2B. With days off it should be fairly reasonable to get Baez to around 500 PAs while still giving Almora a shot at 300 or so PAs.

Adding Gardner into that mix makes no sense to me. For one thing he's making a fair chunk of change. If you're going to pay him that why wouldn't you just re-sign Fowler? Fowler is 3 years younger and doesn't cost anything in trade. And while he may make a few million more, he's a known quantity to the cubs.

 

[CSF77]

I would have Baez at 2B and Zo in LF vs lefties and Schwarber at LF and Zo at 2B vs righties.

Trade Soler.

Heyward full time RF

Almora in CF. The quality of a platoon split depends on him as a player. IDK. Maybe let him play every day hitting 8th. In that spot most pitchers will not attack the zone with the pitcher hitting next. Maybe that would force him to take pitches and get on base for a bunt over.

The other direction would be Bryant in RF and Heyward in CF with Baez at 3B. That is a option but I doubt they will risk Bryant injuring himself out there. Day here and there you can expect.

 

[beckdawg]

Sitting Schwarber vs lefties is effectively losing around 170 PAs. If you're not going to sit Rizzo vs LHP I can't imagine why you'd sit Schwarber. Fact of the matter is if he's ever going to be a complete player he has to get reps against LHP. And yes I realize he struggled with that in 2015 but I also know he handled himself well vs arguably the best LH reliever in baseball during the WS.

 

[CSF77]

Sitting Schwarber vs lefties is effectively losing around 170 PAs. If you're not going to sit Rizzo vs LHP I can't imagine why you'd sit Schwarber. Fact of the matter is if he's ever going to be a complete player he has to get reps against LHP. And yes I realize he struggled with that in 2015 but I also know he handled himself well vs arguably the best LH reliever in baseball during the WS.

He has to hit them before then. Add to it Rizzo is there for his D. Schwarber is only out there for his O. If he is putting up a .600 OPS vs lefties he will sit.

 

[beckdawg]

He has to hit them before then. Add to it Rizzo is there for his D. Schwarber is only out there for his O. If he is putting up a .600 OPS vs lefties he will sit.

In 2015 in AAA Schwarber hit .379/.419/.759 vs lefties. In AA, he hit .256/.373/.465 vs lefties. In 2014 in A+, he hit .265/.368/.531 vs lefties. In A, he hit .400/.464/.680 vs lefties. In A-, he hit .400/.500/.400 vs lefties. 2014 was 79 ABs. 2015 was 71 ABs. So, it's not the biggest sample size but he didn't just hit minor league lefties. He crushed them.

If people have the impression that he's a platoon type player I think that is horribly misguided. I literally think we're talking about the same thing Rizzo went through. Rizzo hit .172/.273/.345 in his first 29 ABs in 2011 vs LHP. In 2012 he hit .208/.243/.356 in 101 ABs. In 2013 he hit .189/.282/.342 in 190 ABs. It wasn't until 2014 where Rizzo broke out hitting .300/.421/.507 vs them followed by .294/.409/.472. and .261/.366/.466. Rizzo had 1913 PAs in the minors. Generally speaking about 25% of pitchers are lefties so that's something like 480 PAs against lefties in the minors plus another 200 or so in the majors before he figured out LHP. Schwarber has had some where between 200-250 since turning pro.

And that's the thing... the only way you get better is reps. I'm not a scout and there's no where near enough data to draw firm conclusions here but my best guess at what is going on here is you're talking about a player who was rapidly promoted and who got to the majors who has some issues vs lefties that he didn't have time to fix because he was so rapidly promoted. I mean it's entirely absurd that he made it to the majors only having 621 PAs in the minors. And major league pitchers being good at their jobs figured out a way to abuse an inexperienced rookie. He had a 8.2% bb rate and a 44.3% k rate vs LHP. There's no way that player is what Schwarber is going forward. He also boasted a .222 BABIP vs LHP which didn't help matters.

 

[DanTown]

In 2015 in AAA Schwarber hit .379/.419/.759 vs lefties. In AA, he hit .256/.373/.465 vs lefties. In 2014 in A+, he hit .265/.368/.531 vs lefties. In A, he hit .400/.464/.680 vs lefties. In A-, he hit .400/.500/.400 vs lefties. 2014 was 79 ABs. 2015 was 71 ABs. So, it's not the biggest sample size but he didn't just hit minor league lefties. He crushed them.

If people have the impression that he's a platoon type player I think that is horribly misguided. I literally think we're talking about the same thing Rizzo went through. Rizzo hit .172/.273/.345 in his first 29 ABs in 2011 vs LHP. In 2012 he hit .208/.243/.356 in 101 ABs. In 2013 he hit .189/.282/.342 in 190 ABs. It wasn't until 2014 where Rizzo broke out hitting .300/.421/.507 vs them followed by .294/.409/.472. and .261/.366/.466. Rizzo had 1913 PAs in the minors. Generally speaking about 25% of pitchers are lefties so that's something like 480 PAs against lefties in the minors plus another 200 or so in the majors before he figured out LHP. Schwarber has had some where between 200-250 since turning pro.

And that's the thing... the only way you get better is reps. I'm not a scout and there's no where near enough data to draw firm conclusions here but my best guess at what is going on here is you're talking about a player who was rapidly promoted and who got to the majors who has some issues vs lefties that he didn't have time to fix because he was so rapidly promoted. I mean it's entirely absurd that he made it to the majors only having 621 PAs in the minors. And major league pitchers being good at their jobs figured out a way to abuse an inexperienced rookie. He had a 8.2% bb rate and a 44.3% k rate vs LHP. There's no way that player is what Schwarber is going forward. He also boasted a .222 BABIP vs LHP which didn't help matters.

I think the belief of saying "sit him against lefties" is more or less a panacea to the idea of him not playing everyday due to his poor defense and his knee rehab. I think he's more than capable of doing it, I just don't think they want to push him that hard.

I think an interesting question could be would the Cubs ever roll out a 12 man hitting lineup and basically only give PA to the top 11 and have Szczur as emergency/9th inning guy? At 11, I think you can spread the PA around enough where your main guys all get 500+. You really don't have a need to PH that much in terms of offense so you're basically talking one or two PA for the pitcher potentially.

C
Contreras, Montero
IF
Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Russell, Zobrist
OF
Soler, Schwarber, Almora, Heyward

Could be interesting if they did that and went after a fairly heavy bullpen of say specialists instead of a power arm. Keep Wood in there (who also functions as a 13th position player), add Logan, move Montgomery to the rotation and give a shot to a young guy or two who earns it out of ST.

5 starters
Rondon/Edwards/Strop - back of the bullpen
Grimm/Logan/Wood/ - situational guys
Johnson/Zastzyny/Others - mop up

The Cubs had a ton of innings of "low leverage" so I don't really see the need for this massive bullpen in terms of value.

 

[beckdawg]

I think the belief of saying "sit him against lefties" is more or less a panacea to the idea of him not playing everyday due to his poor defense and his knee rehab. I think he's more than capable of doing it, I just don't think they want to push him that hard.

On the defense thing... I mean they were planning on him playing a bunch this year. As far as I'm aware the talk was more about where to playing(C vs LF) and not about whether or not he sat. I just can't see that being the issue especially with another full offseason to work on defense. I'd imagine he's less concerned with his bat this offseason than he was prior to 2016 because he literally hit like .400 in the world series. He's said in interview that getting better in LF will basically be his main focus.

As for the injury side of things, by the time April rolls around that will be a full year not to mention 5 months since he was cleared to bat in the WS. That strikes me as more than enough time. I mean if they are really worried I could see them taking it easy on him in say April and ST but by the time May and June rolls around if issues haven't cropped up are they really going to? Obviously if there is some minor swelling or anything like that then sure I can see taking it easier on him but I'm working under the assumption that by that point he'll be fully healed as that's generally the time table and as we saw in the WS he's seemingly ahead of a typical time line.

So, assuming health I just don't see why you would keep him out of the line up. The thing about his defense even if it's typical LF bad or potentially even worse is that once you get a lead, if Almora isn't in the game already he can always come in. So, I'd much rather see that way of playing vs sitting Schwarber and giving him one PH if they happen to be behind. As I've said before, they scored 23 runs in the 4 games he played during the WS vs a team that was pretty damn good and that included game 1 where Kluber shut basically everyone but Schwarber and Zobrist down. They are an entirely different offensive team when he's in the game and the WS largely showed.

I like Almora more than many on here but I just don't really see the point in playing him seemingly over Schwarber. Zobrist is going to play. He was largely one of the 3 or 4 best hitters the cubs had. Heyward is going to play because his defense and potentially reverting back to hitting more like before the cubs. Bryant and Rizzo are no brainers. Contreras obviously starts the most at C. Assuming Soler is dealt, it's mostly a case of how you want to arrange Schwarber, Baez and Almora. Your #5 OF really doesn't matter that much and if they go with another infielder(la stella?) you're mainly talking about off days rather than needing every day starts. For my money there's no question I'd want Schwarber playing every day he can vs those 2. Of the other two, Baez killed LHP but only hit .258/.288/.401 vs RHP. Almora was .262/.279/.548 vs LHP and .286/.324/.400 vs RHP.

As such, in my eyes it makes more sense that you would quasi-platoon Baez and Almora. I'd probably start Baez against roughly 50% of righties and against the lefties. The tougher righties I'd likely start Almora. Between that and off days it wouldn't be that difficult to get him 350 or so PAs and likely more. Soler ended up getting 264 PAs despite missing over a month and of course that's with Contreras seeing a fair chunk of time in LF. The fact of the matter is that while I like Almora as a player, he's never going to be a huge impact bat. If he's average you're happy and if he's above average your ecstatic. Baez you likely want batting more to figure out RHP because of his upside if he does. And while I get the case for Schwarber's defense, as mentioned once you score some runs you can always take him out if the need arises. Given the cubs likely typical line up they don't have many guys other than him that it makes sense to double switch for anyways once you pull the starter.

 

[CSF77]

It is pretty simple. If he crushes lefties then he plays every day. If he struggles then he sits.

On D:

This is an arguement towards Almora and Heyward every day. Those 2 would cover a larger zone where it keep Kyle in a smaller coverage area.

On injury he should be 100% by spring. We saw that he has progress ahead of schedule as it is.

Now the main problem is finding AB's for Zo and Baez. Kyle playing every day lessens Baez's role. With left open it opened at bats for him. That locked up puts the starters into their main roles more.

Especially if Almora puts up Jason's UZR numbers. That will take presidence over Baez's tags at 2B.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It is pretty simple. If he crushes lefties then he plays every day. If he struggles then he sits.

On D:

This is an arguement towards Almora and Heyward every day. Those 2 would cover a larger zone where it keep Kyle in a smaller coverage area.

On injury he should be 100% by spring. We saw that he has progress ahead of schedule as it is.

Now the main problem is finding AB's for Zo and Baez. Kyle playing every day lessens Baez's role. With left open it opened at bats for him. That locked up puts the starters into their main roles more.

Especially if Almora puts up Jason's UZR numbers. That will take presidence over Baez's tags at 2B.

Since Schwarber is coming off of significant injury they may give him plenty of off days during the regular season.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs are 1 of 6 teams interested in Gardner..

They don't think Almora ready for full time play yet and looking to add a LH option to protect him..

They most likely prefer to keep Heyward defense in RF everyday..

So basically what were going to see in 2017 is Albert Almora going to get his opportunity to take over CF at some point if he can show he can hit major league pitching consistently.

The reason they probably looking to add someone like Gardner is a back up plan in case Almora needs more AAA time.

Cause as much as some of you like the idea of a Schwarber Heyward Zobrist OF most everyday, I believe the Cubs brass sees it as a defensive liability, Like I do..

I also believe Soler is going to be used to try and add younger pitching..



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[chibears55]

Since Schwarber is coming off of significant injury they may give him plenty of off days during the regular season.

I agree...especially in April and May..

I think Zobrist will get majority of his starts in LF

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[anotheridiot]

The other direction would be Bryant in RF and Heyward in CF with Baez at 3B. That is a option but I doubt they will risk Bryant injuring himself out there. Day here and there you can expect.

This is what I do not get. Nobody wants Schwarber to catch because he has to squat 150 times a day, but you are risking injury by having Bryant the full time RF? Does anyone remember the injury Buster Posey had? He still catches. Thats where you pick up those extra 170 at bats for Schwarber and keep Soler in the lineup. Is is just enough to have 3 guys that can hit 500 foot home runs instead of 4?

 

[SilenceS]

Zobrist could regress any time. The Cubs are going to want to rest him a good bit. Age catches up to all and you saw how tired he got last year. His bat would look slow for stretches and those arent going to get shorter. The Cubs will look to rest him plenty the last 3 months, if possible. They will want him the most for a stretch run for the playoffs and the playoffs if they make it. So, I see plenty of opportunity for guys to play. Baez wont stay exclusively at second, but I would think the Cubs are going to start moving him to a permanent spot over the next couple of years. I remember Baez saying that he had no issues playing all over the field, but he said in a couple of years it would be nice if he could stay in a spot. We are spoiled that we think, "oh, just move them around" but players tend to not like it. It also hurts with them concentrating on other areas of their game because they are so focused to be ready to play different positions. Baez said he didnt start focusing on hitting till June this year because he wasnt comfortable playing all those positions and it took to June to be comfortable.

You are also going to have to get Bryant a set position in the next couple of years. His bat is way to valuable to have him switching back and forth every other game. I would think the Cubs are hoping those things shake itself out.

 

[DanTown]

On the defense thing... I mean they were planning on him playing a bunch this year. As far as I'm aware the talk was more about where to playing(C vs LF) and not about whether or not he sat. I just can't see that being the issue especially with another full offseason to work on defense. I'd imagine he's less concerned with his bat this offseason than he was prior to 2016 because he literally hit like .400 in the world series. He's said in interview that getting better in LF will basically be his main focus.

As for the injury side of things, by the time April rolls around that will be a full year not to mention 5 months since he was cleared to bat in the WS. That strikes me as more than enough time. I mean if they are really worried I could see them taking it easy on him in say April and ST but by the time May and June rolls around if issues haven't cropped up are they really going to? Obviously if there is some minor swelling or anything like that then sure I can see taking it easier on him but I'm working under the assumption that by that point he'll be fully healed as that's generally the time table and as we saw in the WS he's seemingly ahead of a typical time line.

So, assuming health I just don't see why you would keep him out of the line up. The thing about his defense even if it's typical LF bad or potentially even worse is that once you get a lead, if Almora isn't in the game already he can always come in. So, I'd much rather see that way of playing vs sitting Schwarber and giving him one PH if they happen to be behind. As I've said before, they scored 23 runs in the 4 games he played during the WS vs a team that was pretty damn good and that included game 1 where Kluber shut basically everyone but Schwarber and Zobrist down. They are an entirely different offensive team when he's in the game and the WS largely showed.

I like Almora more than many on here but I just don't really see the point in playing him seemingly over Schwarber. Zobrist is going to play. He was largely one of the 3 or 4 best hitters the cubs had. Heyward is going to play because his defense and potentially reverting back to hitting more like before the cubs. Bryant and Rizzo are no brainers. Contreras obviously starts the most at C. Assuming Soler is dealt, it's mostly a case of how you want to arrange Schwarber, Baez and Almora. Your #5 OF really doesn't matter that much and if they go with another infielder(la stella?) you're mainly talking about off days rather than needing every day starts. For my money there's no question I'd want Schwarber playing every day he can vs those 2. Of the other two, Baez killed LHP but only hit .258/.288/.401 vs RHP. Almora was .262/.279/.548 vs LHP and .286/.324/.400 vs RHP.

As such, in my eyes it makes more sense that you would quasi-platoon Baez and Almora. I'd probably start Baez against roughly 50% of righties and against the lefties. The tougher righties I'd likely start Almora. Between that and off days it wouldn't be that difficult to get him 350 or so PAs and likely more. Soler ended up getting 264 PAs despite missing over a month and of course that's with Contreras seeing a fair chunk of time in LF. The fact of the matter is that while I like Almora as a player, he's never going to be a huge impact bat. If he's average you're happy and if he's above average your ecstatic. Baez you likely want batting more to figure out RHP because of his upside if he does. And while I get the case for Schwarber's defense, as mentioned once you score some runs you can always take him out if the need arises. Given the cubs likely typical line up they don't have many guys other than him that it makes sense to double switch for anyways once you pull the starter.

You get 1300 starts between eight position spots and DH opportunities. Let's assume perfect health, who is too low/high

C - 162
Rizzo - 155
Bryant - 155
Russell - 140
Heyward - 140
Zobrist - 135
Schwarber - 130
Baez - 105
Soler - 100
Almora - 80
Other - as needed for injury

 

[SilenceS]

This is what I do not get. Nobody wants Schwarber to catch because he has to squat 150 times a day, but you are risking injury by having Bryant the full time RF? Does anyone remember the injury Buster Posey had? He still catches. Thats where you pick up those extra 170 at bats for Schwarber and keep Soler in the lineup. Is is just enough to have 3 guys that can hit 500 foot home runs instead of 4?

It has been said over and over again, but for some reason people wont listen to the doctors. Schwarber injury will have no affect on his catching ability. The first year it will be a little uncomfortable because of the rehab, but by year two. It would be like nothing happened if rehab is successful. The Cubs have said they want him to catch once a week. Schwarber has said he is going to catch again.

 

[SilenceS]

You get 1300 starts between eight position spots and DH opportunities. Let's assume perfect health, who is too low/high

C - 162
Rizzo - 155
Bryant - 155
Russell - 140
Heyward - 140
Zobrist - 135
Schwarber - 130
Baez - 105
Soler - 100
Almora - 80
Other - as needed for injury

I see Zobrist playing around 120 games. I think that would be a good amount for him. Keep his body ready for a playoff run. I think Baez gets more than 105. I think he would have to regress at the plate for him to plays 105 or less. I dont think Soler will be on the team all year.

 

[DanTown]

I can't see the Cubs deciding to go to Zobrist st the OF in any sort of regular capacity until mid September. They have too many OF and while Zobrist is a worse fielder thanBaez, due to the difference in bats, Zobrist is still a better 2B.