Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

I may be in the minority, but I think the split record is over stated. Fowler didnt exactly kill it in the second half and the Cubs went on a tear. Maybe him being in the lineup set the players up better, but I dont think it was just him. The Cubs skid came when our pitchers had their worst streak of the season that coincided with our hitters going ice cold. I believe that had way more of an affect than Fowler being out. I like Fowler, but I think its time to move on. Almora is Theo baby. His first draft pick. I would assume Theo is going to want to see what he can do. I expect a platoon out in CF. Fowler may have not been bad in CF, but Almora is great. It also allows flexibility. Save the money. You are already paying JHey. If JHey wasnt a Cub, I would probably think differently but he is a Cub.

I'd be ok with moving on but that just strikes me as super cheap for what Fowler provides. That's like average starter money. It's less per year than the QO the cubs offered Fowler albeit 3 more years. And I like Almora as much as anyone but I've said for awhile now I thought they'd move him around in the outfield similar to the way they moved Baez around to start this past year.

I suppose a lot would have to do with how the trade market develops. I sorta think they will need to deal Soler anyways but if they signed Fowler there would be really no question. Ultimately, I wouldn't expect first half Fowler again but he hit .272/.389/.463 in the second half of 2015. His splits in 2016 were .290/.398/.483 and .261/.387/.408. Something in the .270/.385/.450 range seems like a fair expectation.

As for the money, they saved $10 mil by letting Hammel walk and if they trade soler he's making around $4 mil IIRC. That would essentially cover Fowler in 2017. It might limit what they could do in the closer market but if I'm being honest here I don't particular want them to go nuts on Jansen/Chapman.

 

[CSF77]

15 mil per.

If they were going in the use youth to get SP with Control I'm in on it.

Jake is going to cost around 18 mil in arb. If he has a repeat year with no regression he should net 20-22 mil per on the market. I wouldn't surprise me if he went for 7/175. That is below what he could have got but he did regress this year.

So say they do get Fowler back on a 4 year. This locks up the lead off and they have a back up option in Zobrist. Not to mention a line up of Fowler, Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Heyward, Contreras has few holes in it.

This opens up Happ, Almora and Soler for trade. Add to it if the return was high enough you have to concider Baez.

Now as a disclaimer, I do not believe Theo will do this. I believe he will find a platoon partner for Almora. But I believe defending the belt should have a higher priority.

 

[CSF77]

I'd be ok with moving on but that just strikes me as super cheap for what Fowler provides. That's like average starter money. It's less per year than the QO the cubs offered Fowler albeit 3 more years. And I like Almora as much as anyone but I've said for awhile now I thought they'd move him around in the outfield similar to the way they moved Baez around to start this past year.

I suppose a lot would have to do with how the trade market develops. I sorta think they will need to deal Soler anyways but if they signed Fowler there would be really no question. Ultimately, I wouldn't expect first half Fowler again but he hit .272/.389/.463 in the second half of 2015. His splits in 2016 were .290/.398/.483 and .261/.387/.408. Something in the .270/.385/.450 range seems like a fair expectation.

As for the money, they saved $10 mil by letting Hammel walk and if they trade soler he's making around $4 mil IIRC. That would essentially cover Fowler in 2017. It might limit what they could do in the closer market but if I'm being honest here I don't particular want them to go nuts on Jansen/Chapman.

I still don't know how they will approach the pen. In reality there was a core weakness to it and they had to trade for Chapman. In the play offs we saw that exploited where all Joe could depend on was Chapman, Edwards and Montgomery.

In a pinch he went with Grimm. But the main two who got you there were not gone to. Rondon and Strop.

Now in season they are fine as 8-9 guys. The margin for error is greater. But looking at the big picture, it is still a major issue. 2 guys are soaking payroll and were not go to guys. 1 is a starter option. 1 is gone to F/A. Add to it Wood is a F/A.

I would say the pen is filled with holes right now and crossing your fingers is a recipe for disaster.

I would not offer Rondon or Strop their Arb cases myself and look to add more stability to the pen. They can get cheaper options there vs Rondon and Strop who most likely will again disappear when the stakes are high.

 

[beckdawg]

I still don't know how they will approach the pen.

I still think the weakness was overstated throughout the year. Maybe you argue it was weak in the playoffs but did joe really give anyone but Montgomery and Chapman a chance? In terms of regular season fWAR cubs finished 19th among relievers. I'm not sure that's really the best metric as it's a counting stat and more innings means more fWAR. And in that vein, the cubs bullpen threw the 4th fewest innings last season. In terms of ERA, the cubs finished 8th. In terms of FIP they finished 14th.

I wouldn't by any means suggest the cubs bullpen was the strongest aspect of the team last year but was it really a weakness? Think Rondon and Strop are above average relievers though probably a tier away from "elite." And another year of Edwards is going to give them a third strong arm there. So, they have a number of good late inning options. What they largely lack is that lefty relieve they ended up dealing for last year. If you wanna throw Grimm in there they have 4 decent RHP options out of the pen.

Luckily fangraphs makes stuff like this a bit easier with their FA leaderboards.

Bringing Wood back might make sense. He likely got a bit over used vs RHP but he was nails vs LH. Koji Uehara at 41 might be an interesting short term play as well despite being RH. Boone Logan also looks interesting. But long story short here, there's more than a few good options against lefties.

 

[fatbeard]

I still don't know how they will approach the pen. In reality there was a core weakness to it and they had to trade for Chapman. In the play offs we saw that exploited where all Joe could depend on was Chapman, Edwards and Montgomery.

In a pinch he went with Grimm. But the main two who got you there were not gone to. Rondon and Strop.

Now in season they are fine as 8-9 guys. The margin for error is greater. But looking at the big picture, it is still a major issue. 2 guys are soaking payroll and were not go to guys. 1 is a starter option. 1 is gone to F/A. Add to it Wood is a F/A.

I would say the pen is filled with holes right now and crossing your fingers is a recipe for disaster.

I would not offer Rondon or Strop their Arb cases myself and look to add more stability to the pen. They can get cheaper options there vs Rondon and Strop who most likely will again disappear when the stakes are high.

Rondon was hurt the entire second half. Strop got hurt in September. Both are excellent BP arms and you're imagining problems that don't exist. Even if the Cubs don't sign a closer, they are still in good shape headed into next year with Rondon/Edwards competing for the spot.

 

[CSF77]

I still think the weakness was overstated throughout the year. Maybe you argue it was weak in the playoffs but did joe really give anyone but Montgomery and Chapman a chance? In terms of regular season fWAR cubs finished 19th among relievers. I'm not sure that's really the best metric as it's a counting stat and more innings means more fWAR. And in that vein, the cubs bullpen threw the 4th fewest innings last season. In terms of ERA, the cubs finished 8th. In terms of FIP they finished 14th.

I wouldn't by any means suggest the cubs bullpen was the strongest aspect of the team last year but was it really a weakness? Think Rondon and Strop are above average relievers though probably a tier away from "elite." And another year of Edwards is going to give them a third strong arm there. So, they have a number of good late inning options. What they largely lack is that lefty relieve they ended up dealing for last year. If you wanna throw Grimm in there they have 4 decent RHP options out of the pen.

Luckily fangraphs makes stuff like this a bit easier with their FA leaderboards.

Bringing Wood back might make sense. He likely got a bit over used vs RHP but he was nails vs LH. Koji Uehara at 41 might be an interesting short term play as well despite being RH. Boone Logan also looks interesting. But long story short here, there's more than a few good options against lefties.

Mark Melancon would be my goto F/A. Edwards becomes my set up and my 7th inning guy goes into competition. Rob Z is my 1 inning guy and Rosscup my 1 out guy.

Guys in completion would be Johnson, Black, Rivero, Williams as a MR etc.

They have plenty of depth guys that fall into the MR category. But by cutting Strop and Rondon it frees up payroll to sign Mark. Who pays off more and brings stability to a unstable situation.

 

[CSF77]

Rondon was hurt the entire second half. Strop got hurt in September. Both are excellent BP arms and you're imagining problems that don't exist. Even if the Cubs don't sign a closer, they are still in good shape headed into next year with Rondon/Edwards competing for the spot.

They signed Chapman pre injury to Rondon. They identified a need before that issue came up.

Strop was not missed with the emergence of Edwards and later Montgomery. There was a legit reason why Joe leaned on those 3.

I'm really not imagining things. Those things happened. Combined Strop and Rondon made 8.6 mil in 2016. 10 mil could be a realistic price tag and I would rather them use it towards Mark.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs added Jack Leathersich(among others) to the 40 man. My guess is he's probably going to get a decent shot to be one of the cubs main lefties. I'd sorta forgotten about him as he was mostly rehabbing this year but he's got dynamite stuff. Probably more of a LOOGY than a closer type but his k rate is well over 10.

 

[fatbeard]

They signed Chapman pre injury to Rondon. They identified a need before that issue came up.

Strop was not missed with the emergence of Edwards and later Montgomery. There was a legit reason why Joe leaned on those 3.

I'm really not imagining things. Those things happened. Combined Strop and Rondon made 8.6 mil in 2016. 10 mil could be a realistic price tag and I would rather them use it towards Mark.

The Cubs knew Rondon wasn't right about a week before they signed Chapman. Can't recall where I read this, but it was just the other day. Rondon's numbers before that were fantastic: 1.72 ERA, 4 BB in 31.1 innings, 42 K. Those are elite closer numbers.

Strop has been excellent three years in a row. His stuff is actually better than Rondon's, but he runs into command issues on occasion.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs knew Rondon wasn't right about a week before they signed Chapman. Can't recall where I read this, but it was just the other day. Rondon's numbers before that were fantastic: 1.72 ERA, 4 BB in 31.1 innings, 42 K. Those are elite closer numbers.

Strop has been excellent three years in a row. His stuff is actually better than Rondon's, but he runs into command issues on occasion.

So you are saying you would rather have another year of Rondon/Strop vs Melancon?

I'll disagree with you there.

I believe Theo and Jed over paid for supporting cast in the pen.

Travis Wood 6.17 mil

Pedro Strop rhp
1 year/$4.4M (2016)

Trevor Cahill 4.25 mil

Hector Rondon rhp
1 year/$4.2M (2016)

Clayton Richard 2 mil

Warren 1.7 mil

Grimm 1.275 mil


That is a whole lota payroll used up on minor impact players last play offs.

What Edwards represented was the work Jed and Theo have been doing to become more independent of paying higher prices for services. That way they have more payroll set aside for impact signings.

 

[beckdawg]

So you are saying you would rather have another year of Rondon/Strop vs Melancon?

I'll disagree with you there.

I believe Theo and Jed over paid for supporting cast in the pen.

Travis Wood 6.17 mil

Pedro Strop rhp
1 year/$4.4M (2016)

Trevor Cahill 4.25 mil

Hector Rondon rhp
1 year/$4.2M (2016)

Clayton Richard 2 mil

Warren 1.7 mil

Grimm 1.275 mil


That is a whole lota payroll used up on minor impact players last play offs.

What Edwards represented was the work Jed and Theo have been doing to become more independent of paying higher prices for services. That way they have more payroll set aside for impact signings.

That's really not that much money. Wood's the only one making substantial money and that was because his arbitration number focused more on him being a starter. That's like $23 mil. Last season the dodgers paid Jansen and Howell nearly $17 mil. Blanton was another $4 mil. Various other chip in for close to $25 mil.

 

[CSF77]

That's really not that much money. Wood's the only one making substantial money and that was because his arbitration number focused more on him being a starter. That's like $23 mil. Last season the dodgers paid Jansen and Howell nearly $17 mil. Blanton was another $4 mil. Various other chip in for close to $25 mil.

Around 24 mil for the bunch.

Now say Mark gets 15 mil per. You keep Grimm as the 7th inning guy. 1.5 mil I'm guessing. Edwards, Rob Z and say Black as min contracts. 1.5 mil.

5 guys at 18 mil. They would have 6 mil to match last year's pen. Think 2 guys at the 3 mil range to give vet leadership to the pen.

 

[beckdawg]

Around 24 mil for the bunch.

Now say Mark gets 15 mil per. You keep Grimm as the 7th inning guy. 1.5 mil I'm guessing. Edwards, Rob Z and say Black as min contracts. 1.5 mil.

5 guys at 18 mil. They would have 6 mil to match last year's pen. Think 2 guys at the 3 mil range to give vet leadership to the pen.

Not really sure what you're going on about here.... Rondon and Strop are going to be back. They are still under arbitration. Strop is projected to get $5.5 and Rondon is projected to get $5.7. Grimm is projected to get $1.8. They aren't going to non-tender Rondon/Strop. I'd also be super dubious they'd trade them and then go out and give one guy $15 mil.

Also Black isn't even on the 40 man right now.

 

[CSF77]

Not really sure what you're going on about here.... Rondon and Strop are going to be back. They are still under arbitration. Strop is projected to get $5.5 and Rondon is projected to get $5.7. Grimm is projected to get $1.8. They aren't going to non-tender Rondon/Strop. I'd also be super dubious they'd trade them and then go out and give one guy $15 mil.

Also Black isn't even on the 40 man right now.

How many times has Jed and Theo traded short term for long term over the last 5 years? I think we are losing site of how this team was built in the first place.

 

[beckdawg]

Yankees designated Nathan Eovaldi for assignment. I didn't realize he'd had TJS but given he's unlikely to pitch next season, chances are he is fully released after clearing waivers. He would be an interesting guy to sign to a minor league deal to rehab.

 

[CSF77]

Yankees designated Nathan Eovaldi for assignment. I didn't realize he'd had TJS but given he's unlikely to pitch next season, chances are he is fully released after clearing waivers. He would be an interesting guy to sign to a minor league deal to rehab.

I think his first year back he will be in recovery still. To me this is a deal that a small market makes. He is just going to use a team to get into his next major deal.

When the Cubs were in overhaul deals like that were fine. In a winning window they should be focusing on the next year.

 

[DanTown]

How many times has Jed and Theo traded short term for long term over the last 5 years? I think we are losing site of how this team was built in the first place.

They did it when they traded a package with Torres in it to get Chapman.

When you're not a contender (pre-2015) you obviously don't make moves to improve the current team. When you a playoff/WS contender, you do make moves for the "short term". The Cubs have already established their core and have a few guys ready to go in a few years to be added to that. I also fail to see hoe singing bullpen arms in their 30s is a good investment. Injury rate plus loss of velocity makes it so hard to evaluate.

Relievers to me are just like starters in that the best value is low cost specialists or in paying the premium for the top 5-10 in the game. I don't get he point in giving Melancon 12 million. He's not a multiple inning guy in the playoffs so I really am paying a massive premium for a guy who gets you through one inning.

 

[Diehardfan]

They did it when they traded a package with Torres in it to get Chapman.

When you're not a contender (pre-2015) you obviously don't make moves to improve the current team. When you a playoff/WS contender, you do make moves for the "short term". The Cubs have already established their core and have a few guys ready to go in a few years to be added to that. I also fail to see hoe singing bullpen arms in their 30s is a good investment. Injury rate plus loss of velocity makes it so hard to evaluate.

Relievers to me are just like starters in that the best value is low cost specialists or in paying the premium for the top 5-10 in the game. I don't get he point in giving Melancon 12 million. He's not a multiple inning guy in the playoffs so I really am paying a massive premium for a guy who gets you through one inning.

I have to agree. They have more than enough to get to the dance with Edwards, Strop and Rondon...of course, that's counting on Rondon to regain his slider which disappeared after his injury. A couple of weeks into ST will likely answer that. Then if they think they need another arm, they invest short term at the deadline again. That's the beauty of having a load of young talent at your disposal.

What they have done is just so comparable to what the Blackhawks have done...the Cubs also have the added benefit of not having to deal with a salary cap.

 

[CSF77]

They did it when they traded a package with Torres in it to get Chapman.

When you're not a contender (pre-2015) you obviously don't make moves to improve the current team. When you a playoff/WS contender, you do make moves for the "short term". The Cubs have already established their core and have a few guys ready to go in a few years to be added to that. I also fail to see hoe singing bullpen arms in their 30s is a good investment. Injury rate plus loss of velocity makes it so hard to evaluate.

Relievers to me are just like starters in that the best value is low cost specialists or in paying the premium for the top 5-10 in the game. I don't get he point in giving Melancon 12 million. He's not a multiple inning guy in the playoffs so I really am paying a massive premium for a guy who gets you through one inning.

Most closers are 1 inning pitchers.

This reminds me of 2007-2008 with Marmol. He had shut down stuff and was the goto guy to shut down a inning. Wood was the closer and was a 1 inning guy. Right now they have Edwards as that hot ticket arm who can shut down a inning.

I'm fine if Rondon bounces back. But I'm looking at the offseason like this:

They let Fowler bounce. Sign a LH platoon partner for Almora.

They release Hammel. Insert a cheaper Montgomery into his slot.

Don't sign a closer and keep the pen inhouse.

Now how is this team going to do next year? You band aid the parts with cheaper options and move on?

My opinion is they need to make a investment. They are losing Hammel, Fowler, Wood, Chapman and Cahill. 25 mil approx and add 0? I'm having a hard time with that.

 

[chibears55]

I don't see the bullpen going through too much of a change. .

RH
Grimm
Edwards
Strop
Rondon

LH
Zastryzny

LH options
Wood (resigns) Montgomery (if not SP)
Concepcion Leathersich Rollins Rosscup

So.. im looking at maybe adding another Lefty
I also think they will add a closer


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