Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

And you all make the case on why he will get more in trade

There has to be equivalent value to have a market. Happ is a top 25 prospect. The only teams that have one of those are Boston(3x), Philly(2x), Washington(2x), Atlanta(2x), Colorado, St. Louis, Pitt(3x), Mets, Yankees(4x), SD, Milwalkee, Tampa, Cubs(2x), and cleveland. That's 14 of the 29 possible teams. Of those, Philly is rebuilding so that would seem to be an odd trade plus one of the guys was the first overall pick and I'm pretty sure you can no longer deal picks until after the next draft. SD and Milwalkee are also rebuilding. Pitt has plenty of it's own young pitching as do the Mets. Tampa can't trade with themselves.

So that leaves what, Boston, Atlanta, Washington, Colorado, St. Louis, the Yankees, Cubs and Cleveland? Colorado probably doesn't have enough need with a bunch of young pitching and they are likely a year or two away. The Yankees could make a move but Tampa trading in division would be surprising and I think they are still aways off. Like wise Boston is in division. Washington could make a move but it would certainly cost them Giolito or Robles and i've heard they don't want to move either and tampa supposedly wants bats anyways. Cleveland needs offense more than pitching. St. Louis has really only pitching.

This is the main reason I don't buy your argument. If they are willing to deal him to Boston then sure they might be able to drive up a market. But if they want bats who's a more realistic trade partner than the cubs? I frankly think the market is 2 teams. Atlanta and Chicago. I might throw in a wild card idea of the dodgers just because they have Puig and he's hard to evaluate. Even if you want to expand that to a top 50 hitter, the only additional teams are Seattle, Dodgers, Oakland, Cincy, Minny, and Houston. Oakland Cincy and Minny make 0 sense. Seattle just traded away Walker so they aren't that desperate for pitching. Houston might have enough hitting to attack with quantity over quality but I've heard 0 mention of them connected to Archer.

And if it does come down to those 3 teams(LA, ATL, CHC), is Atlanta really going to move Swanson? I'd be shocked if they did. Ozzie Albies is ok but he's a no power middle infielder not a middle of the order hitter. Kevin Maitan would be a huge get but I see no way atlanta trades him. Atlanta is largely in the same boat as Tampa. They have a bunch of pitching and a terrible offense. The dodgers I have literally no idea on. They have the talent to do about 30 things. Regardless though, on Archer the market is fairly limited in teams that can physically put together a trade of equal value to the one's being mentioned from the cubs.

Sale on the other hand is a different story. The Sox can easily play NY and Boston against each other if they so choose. As such, I could see them getting a lot for him. Plus he had a substantially better 2016.

 

[brett05]

Not all top 25 specs are the same. Just because you are top 25 for this off season doesn't mean you are necessarily more or less valuable than say the top 25 guy from three seasons ago. That is why I dismiss that argument.

If TB wants at least Giolito than you have your value. Happ is no where near as valuable as Giolito IMO and I am thnking in the opinion of the GMs. It's not that he can't go to the Cubs. The cost is higher than what is being offered because of many factors including his dominance, his youth, his contract, and the scarcity of great starting pitching.

 

[beckdawg]

I think that leaves 7 teams. The only team I added to the list really are the Rockies and they'd be extremely unlikely. The Cardinals would be a huge stretch in that their farm is depleted and leaving, again, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers and Braves all of who could have the type of positional talent TB seeks.

We came up with basically the same list though I don't necessarily agree on the Rangers. I mean I'm sure they would have interest. I just don't think they have the chips. Gallo doesn't strike me as a TB type player. Profar has been ok but the luster is off him even more than it is off Soler. He's been wroth 0 fWAR over 648 PAs. Nomar Mazara is intriguing but then they don't have a RF. And their farm system is trash. They only have 1 top 100 prospect now and that's Yohander Mendez at #55.

Houston would be an interesting dark horse but they have more quantity than quality right now.

 

[beckdawg]

Not all top 25 specs are the same. Just because you are top 25 for this off season doesn't mean you are necessarily more or less valuable than say the top 25 guy from three seasons ago. That is why I dismiss that argument.

If TB wants at least Giolito than you have your value. Happ is no where near as valuable as Giolito IMO and I am thnking in the opinion of the GMs. It's not that he can't go to the Cubs. The cost is higher than what is being offered because of many factors including his dominance, his youth, his contract, and the scarcity of great starting pitching.

If TB wants Giolito and Washington wont trade him then it's a moot point. Saying he's worth Giolito is meaningless. It's about what you can actually get. Was Chapman worth Schwarber? Potentially, but the cubs weren't dealing him so the Yankees took what they could get. And it's fine and well to say they don't have to trade someone but the fact of the matter is they do. That doesn't necessarily mean Archer but it's all but been said they have to trade someone because they don't have the money to field the rest of the team. They literally missed out on signing Castro to be their C because they apparently couldn't afford $24.5 mil over 3 years for him.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

We came up with basically the same list though I don't necessarily agree on the Rangers. I mean I'm sure they would have interest. I just don't think they have the chips. Gallo doesn't strike me as a TB type player. Profar has been ok but the luster is off him even more than it is off Soler. He's been wroth 0 fWAR over 648 PAs. Nomar Mazara is intriguing but then they don't have a RF. And their farm system is trash. They only have 1 top 100 prospect now and that's Yohander Mendez at #55.

Houston would be an interesting dark horse but they have more quantity than quality right now.

You're probably right on Texas, I was thinking Gallo but I agree he's not TB's type of player. Houston is said to be very interested in Sale but he would cost them Bregman plus as the White Sox want quantity and quality. Archer would cost less but I'm not sure Bregman straight up gets that done.

 

[anotheridiot]

Archer has a career 3.51 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.34 K/9 and 3.01 BB/9. His BB rate is slightly concerning but not in light of the K's which have been signifigantly better in the last 2 years 10.70/9 in 2015 and 10.42/9 in 2016. Plus he's done this pitching in the AL East. If he pitched in the NL you'd be looking at a FIP of about 3 or below and can you imagine his ERA with the Cubs defense behind him? On top of that he's ridiculously cheap

2017 28 $4,916,666
2018 29 $6,416,667
2019 30 $7,666,667
2020 31 *$9,000,000 $9M Team Option, $1.75M Buyout
2021 32 *$11,000,000 $11M Team Option, $250k Buyout

Think about that for a second. For the length of the deal he'll be paid much less than a #5 starter costs on today's market, your injury risk is severely mitigated by the option years and he's never posted less than 3 WAR since his 1st season in MLB. Let's look at it another way, in his next 3 years, the heart of his prime, he will make $19 mil. The recently departed Jason Hammel is expected to sign a contract for 4/$55 mil. Andrew Cashner just signed a 1 year deal for $10 mil and I'm not sure he's a starting pitcher. I guess my question to you is what's not to love?

Which is why I doubt the Rays move him before 2020. Cashner signed a one year bet on himself deal, Archer does not need that. He had a "bad" record year. I think he was really good in a bunch of categories, like 6th most strikeouts in baseball and 6th in k/9. Sounds like a guy that lost confidence in his defense. You also need to consider this contract weighing on his mind. It was a bad deal and he will feel grossly underpaid for the next 6 years while Arrieta, Kershaw and Grienke are making 30 million per year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Which is why I doubt the Rays move him before 2020. Cashner signed a one year bet on himself deal, Archer does not need that. He had a "bad" record year. I think he was really good in a bunch of categories, like 6th most strikeouts in baseball and 6th in k/9. Sounds like a guy that lost confidence in his defense. You also need to consider this contract weighing on his mind. It was a bad deal and he will feel grossly underpaid for the next 6 years while Arrieta, Kershaw and Grienke are making 30 million per year.

The Rays issue is they literally can't pay for ANY free agents and need positional talent while at the same time are fairly stocked with pitchers in their system. Trading Archer for guys than can play for them now or in the near future could keep them moderately competitive as they seek a new stadium.

 

[CSF77]

Tampa Bay has said repeatedly they won't trade in Division so I think it does exclude the East and why in the world would the Twins trade for a pitcher when they're likely 3 years from competition? The Braves are a different story as they look to be gearing up to compete in 2018.

I think 7-10 teams is way high. The following would almost certainly be excluded

Red Sox
Yankees
Orioles
Blue Jays
Indians
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins
Mariners
Angels
A's
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Giants
Diamondbacks
Padres

I think that leaves 7 teams. The only team I added to the list really are the Rockies and they'd be extremely unlikely. The Cardinals would be a huge stretch in that their farm is depleted and leaving, again, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers and Braves all of who could have the type of positional talent TB seeks.

Rays can't afford the bottom rollers again. They will lose all the fans

 

[brett05]

If TB wants Giolito and Washington wont trade him then it's a moot point. Saying he's worth Giolito is meaningless. It's about what you can actually get. Was Chapman worth Schwarber? Potentially, but the cubs weren't dealing him so the Yankees took what they could get. And it's fine and well to say they don't have to trade someone but the fact of the matter is they do. That doesn't necessarily mean Archer but it's all but been said they have to trade someone because they don't have the money to field the rest of the team. They literally missed out on signing Castro to be their C because they apparently couldn't afford $24.5 mil over 3 years for him.

They might be cash strapped but Archer isn't the cause as I believe TC pointed out earlier. So No, Archer does not have to be traded.

 

[brett05]

The Rays issue is they literally can't pay for ANY free agents and need positional talent while at the same time are fairly stocked with pitchers in their system. Trading Archer for guys than can play for them now or in the near future could keep them moderately competitive as they seek a new stadium.

And with that much like the White Sox it will have to be impact players that most likely are a mix of on the roster and about to be on the roster if they are to move Archer.

 

[brett05]

Tampa Bay has said repeatedly they won't trade in Division so I think it does exclude the East and why in the world would the Twins trade for a pitcher when they're likely 3 years from competition?

The Twins could with the right moves be ready much sooner than later. Many last year gave them an outside shot at a playoff spot prior to the season starting.

As for the AL East, the Rays in their short history have done 10 transactions with the other four teams. I can't count them out even if they are only used to drive up the price.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Twins could with the right moves be ready much sooner than later. Many last year gave them an outside shot at a playoff spot prior to the season starting.

As for the AL East, the Rays in their short history have done 10 transactions with the other four teams. I can't count them out even if they are only used to drive up the price.

I understand about the Twins and that 2015 was quite promising but the new baseball operations team of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seem to think they're further away. Brian Dozier will definitely be traded and I heard Levine say over the weekend that all assets are available if it makes them better in the long term. He also discussed bolstering the farm system from it's middle of the road ranking. That's rebuild talk. I seriously doubt they would trade for an ace pitcher.

Listen, Archer may not be moved and, if recent rumors are true regarding your guy Sale, he could be the best pitcher in trade on the market which would drive up the price. People are starting to talk that the White Sox will not trade Sale or Quintana because they haven't liked the type of package they've been offered which for sale have been topped by the likes of Andrew Benintendi and possibly Andrew Bregman but the Sox are holding out for 2 guys of that caliber. So far teams haven't budged. It would seem, for instance, that the Red Sox wouldn't even consider both Benintendi and Yoan Moncada and yet that appears to be the price for Sale. Bringing it back to Archer, if the Rays did consider trading in the division, you would think Benintendi and maybe Rafael Devers would get that deal done and then free up up Matt Duffy to be traded for further assets when Devers is ready. Those are a lot of ifs though and I maintain that unless Sale is declared untouchable by the White Sox, Archer's market will be limited to the few teams I mentioned yesterday.

 

[CSF77]

And with that much like the White Sox it will have to be impact players that most likely are a mix of on the roster and about to be on the roster if they are to move Archer.

Ian Happ #21
Eloy Jimenez #23
Dylan Cease #97
Jeimer Candelario #99

I don't see the Cubs offering Jimenez and Cease. Not to mention I doubt the Rays want to develop a pitcher vs just polish one.

So Soler vs Jimenez is a fair swap.

Cease is by far the best arm in the system. With maybe the exception of Clifton. Clifton would be a fair swap as he should be in AA. If they want a arm that is further along I don't see the match.

Beck made a case for Montero. If they ate contract. I'm not sure if they go there.

Still with Jake Bauers in AAA next year who can play 1B and hits left handed it lessens the need for Candi.

So Candi-> Montero.

So Archer for Montero, Soler, Happ, Clifton.

2 guys on the team starting. Top 3 framer in baseball with a power RH bat that fields LF and can DH. Then a lead off in AAA. They could be looking at Willy Adames and Ian Happ up the middle in AAA. and Clifton who is pretty much the most polished arm in the system.

It is not a sexy trade but it is a trade if you are looking at the health of a team. Cubs most likely would send over cash also.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Ian Happ #21
Eloy Jimenez #23
Dylan Cease #97
Jeimer Candelario #99

I don't see the Cubs offering Jimenez and Cease. Not to mention I doubt the Rays want to develop a pitcher vs just polish one.

So Soler vs Jimenez is a fair swap.

Cease is by far the best arm in the system. With maybe the exception of Clifton. Clifton would be a fair swap as he should be in AA. If they want a arm that is further along I don't see the match.

Beck made a case for Montero. If they ate contract. I'm not sure if they go there.

Still with Jake Bauers in AAA next year who can play 1B and hits left handed it lessens the need for Candi.

So Candi-> Montero.

So Archer for Montero, Soler, Happ, Clifton.

2 guys on the team starting. Top 3 framer in baseball with a power RH bat that fields LF and can DH. Then a lead off in AAA. They could be looking at Willy Adames and Ian Happ up the middle in AAA. and Clifton who is pretty much the most polished arm in the system.

It is not a sexy trade but it is a trade if you are looking at the health of a team. Cubs most likely would send over cash also.

I think if you give them Clifton instead of Cease you still add Candelerio to that deal. It's true they don't need a guy for 3B but Duffy is a valuable asset that could get them something else they want. Now they've filled an OF position, 2B, 3B another pitcher for an already impressive stable, Montero for a year and have another tradeable piece for more. I'd say the Cubs would have to eat $12 mil of Montero's deal, and maybe another low level comes back with Archer. That would make Archer and a A blall arm for Soler, Happ, Candelerio, Montero, Clifton and $10 mil cash. On paper it looks steep but it includes two parts you can't use and a maybe in Clifton. Happ is the part of that trade that would really hurt. I'd do it yesterday.

 

[beckdawg]

They might be cash strapped but Archer isn't the cause as I believe TC pointed out earlier. So No, Archer does not have to be traded.

Whether or not Archer is the cause of it is pointless. Tampa bay's 2016 opening day payroll was $66.6 million. If you just count the 25 man roster and ignore the 15 other guys on the 40 man that comes in at $2.7 mil per guy. I certainly don't need to explain to you how little that buys. In 2017, Longoria and Forsythe will be making $20 mil combined. If we rerun that math, you're down to $2 mil per player for he other 23 guys. They have a number of guys now hitting arbitration and here's their expected values

Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

That comes in at another $32.1 mil on top of the $25.08 mil committed to Longoria, Archer and Forsythe. In other words, if they just retain the 10 arbitration players and the 3 guys they have on contract they are at $57.18 mil and that's before you talk about filling the other 12 roster spots on a 68 win team. Even if you fill that with league minimum players that's another $6 mil. And you actually do have to pay the 15 other guys on the 40 man which is another $7.5 mil. So you're already at $70.68 mil without adding any external players. Tampa has never spent more than $77 mil in franchise history. Long story short, they aren't operating like other teams save for maybe Oakland and even Oakland had an $86 mil payroll last season. It's fine and dandy to talk about winning titles but they are running a business here and actually have to put out enough of a product to make a profit. As I mentioned they literally couldn't afford to give Castro $24.5 mil over 3 years to be their catcher. Tampa like Oakland can't afford to sit and wait on a talented guy in A ball via trade. Billy Beane has talked about this. The gist of it is that by the time they build up enough talent at the MLB level to be competitive, those players hit arbitration and Oakland can no longer afford them.

This leads to a point I've made all along. Teams like Oakland and Tampa have to get guys who can contribute today when they move pieces. For example, when they traded David Price, many felt the return was light. It ended up being a 3 team deal and they came away with Smyly, Adames, Nick Franklin for a Cy Young pitcher with 1.5 years of control. Smyly wasn't a top 20 prospect. Highest he ever got was #82 by MLB.com and no one else ever rated him in the top 100. Adames is now a top 25 guy but at that time of the trade he was an 18 year old in A ball. Franklin was a former top prospect who peaked at #44 but who was more of a buy low guy at that point after hitting .225/.303/.382 in 2013 and .128/.192/.170 to start 2014. Point here being that Tampa dealt easily the best pitcher on the market for 2 guys in Smyly and Franklin who had limited upside but who were MLB ready and for 1 lottery ticket 18 year old in A ball.

That's what you're not factoring in to this. Aside from the market limitations which have already been discussed, they have issues with needing bats in particular and needing MLB ready players because they can't afford free agents. If you want to make the argument that Sale nets considerably more that's fine but I think the Sox as a team are in an entirely different situation. At $114.5 mil the Sox had almost double the 2016 opening day payroll that the Rays did.

 

[CSF77]

I think if you give them Clifton instead of Cease you still add Candelerio to that deal. It's true they don't need a guy for 3B but Duffy is a valuable asset that could get them something else they want. Now they've filled an OF position, 2B, 3B another pitcher for an already impressive stable, Montero for a year and have another tradeable piece for more. I'd say the Cubs would have to eat $12 mil of Montero's deal, and maybe another low level comes back with Archer. That would make Archer and a A blall arm for Soler, Happ, Candelerio, Montero, Clifton and $10 mil cash. On paper it looks steep but it includes two parts you can't use and a maybe in Clifton. Happ is the part of that trade that would really hurt. I'd do it yesterday.

Montero is the back up here. He is a starting catcher and with a young staff you want a mature pro calling the games.

Soler has talent. He is just over shadowed by the talent in place and has fallen into a back up situation. On a team with less over all talent he should mature.

Adding Candi. They would have to add a near ready arm. I like Jaime Schultz in AAA. Has a strong SO ratio and could fit into the pen for a year and take over for Lackey when he leaves. I wouldn't want another lower level arm. Cubs have too many not near and not enough ready arms.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Montero is the back up here. He is a starting catcher and with a young staff you want a mature pro calling the games.

Soler has talent. He is just over shadowed by the talent in place and has fallen into a back up situation. On a team with less over all talent he should mature.

Adding Candi. They would have to add a near ready arm. I like Jaime Schultz in AAA. Has a strong SO ratio and could fit into the pen for a year and take over for Lackey when he leaves. I wouldn't want another lower level arm. Cubs have too many not near and not enough ready arms.

That makes some sense, so I'm with you. That would end up being a good deal for both teams from a goal standpoint. The Rays could move Duffy to 2B until Happ is ready and then move him as I said. If their pitching works out they could be competitive with that lineup and a miniscule salary commitment which is what they need. OK, we got it done who needs Theo and Jed anyway?

 

[brett05]

I understand about the Twins and that 2015 was quite promising but the new baseball operations team of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seem to think they're further away. Brian Dozier will definitely be traded and I heard Levine say over the weekend that all assets are available if it makes them better in the long term. He also discussed bolstering the farm system from it's middle of the road ranking. That's rebuild talk. I seriously doubt they would trade for an ace pitcher.

Listen, Archer may not be moved and, if recent rumors are true regarding your guy Sale, he could be the best pitcher in trade on the market which would drive up the price. People are starting to talk that the White Sox will not trade Sale or Quintana because they haven't liked the type of package they've been offered which for sale have been topped by the likes of Andrew Benintendi and possibly Andrew Bregman but the Sox are holding out for 2 guys of that caliber. So far teams haven't budged. It would seem, for instance, that the Red Sox wouldn't even consider both Benintendi and Yoan Moncada and yet that appears to be the price for Sale. Bringing it back to Archer, if the Rays did consider trading in the division, you would think Benintendi and maybe Rafael Devers would get that deal done and then free up up Matt Duffy to be traded for further assets when Devers is ready. Those are a lot of ifs though and I maintain that unless Sale is declared untouchable by the White Sox, Archer's market will be limited to the few teams I mentioned yesterday.

If this was the case of trading for say Arrieta, I get it. The Twins can't use him properly more than likely. But Archer should be great thru 2021. That's long term short term, mid term value all over the place at cheap dollars. That's why even a team like the Phillies or the Marlins can't be counted out. An Archer in trade does not come along often at all. And with the shortage of quality pitching it's worth a look by any team.

If the White Sox don't get their price on Sale or Q, no loss. Their value is basically the same during the 2017 season and the 2017 offseason. Perhaps moving a guy like Frazier brings back a usable OF piece. Same with Robertson. Give me Eaton in RF, Trade pieces in LF, CF, Melky at DH, Abreu at 1b, Anderson at SS, Sanchez at 2b, and filler at 3b and catcher with Jones as the closer, Sale, Q, Gonzalez, Rodon, and Shields at the 5 and If things roll right they can win. Of course getting a true value trade for Sale and or Q would work too. But in the non-SP scenario, their minors get slightly stronger and they make another step.

Back to Archer. I think he can be had. But with no reason to trade him the Rays will win the trade if/when they move him. And honestly I think he's worth the overpay in a trade.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They might be cash strapped but Archer isn't the cause as I believe TC pointed out earlier. So No, Archer does not have to be traded.

I think you're missing the point. They cannot afford position players with money so Archer becomes the asset that gets them cost controlled guys to fill out their roster and produce. You're talking about a team with a $50-$65 mil salary here. So now they're not freeing up Archer's money to pay for guys but they are turning and asset into multiple assets.

 

[beckdawg]

I think if you give them Clifton instead of Cease you still add Candelerio to that deal. It's true they don't need a guy for 3B but Duffy is a valuable asset that could get them something else they want. Now they've filled an OF position, 2B, 3B another pitcher for an already impressive stable, Montero for a year and have another tradeable piece for more. I'd say the Cubs would have to eat $12 mil of Montero's deal, and maybe another low level comes back with Archer. That would make Archer and a A blall arm for Soler, Happ, Candelerio, Montero, Clifton and $10 mil cash. On paper it looks steep but it includes two parts you can't use and a maybe in Clifton. Happ is the part of that trade that would really hurt. I'd do it yesterday.

Think Candelario is too much in that deal. Honestly though, people aren't really factoring in the back side of how trades typically work. I mean it's fine and well to talk about Happ/Soler but just look at any high profile trade. Shark/Hammel was for Russell who was obviously the sexy part but also McKinney and Straily. Garza was for Edwards and Olt who were the big names but there was also Grimm and Ramirez. Ironically, the Dempster trade Villanueva was supposed to be the meat with Hendricks being the padding. The Garza deal to the cubs was for Hak-Ju Lee and Archer who were the 1/2 pieces but you had Guyer, Sam Flud and Robinson Chirinos as other names.

So, in that vein, I think you need to talk about adding some lessor pieces here. In the case of the Garza deal, the Rays ended up getting 3 guys who played for them in 2011 in Flud, Chirinos and Guyer with Archer being a year after. If we're talking about this trade, obviously Soler plays day 1 for them. I've mentioned Montero obviously. But I still think someone like Szczur or Zagunis makes as much if not more sense to them than say Candelario since their OF depth is poor. That would largely give them a similar amount of MLB ready guys to what they got for Garza. I mentioned before that I felt they would need one of the cubs second tier arms in the Stinnett like group. But something like Happ + Soler + Montero(+$), + Szczur/Zagunis + a second tier arm would essentially be a similar package to what they gave up for Garza and I'd argue that it's probably more as the highest Lee ever rated was #44 where as both Happ and Soler have been top 30 prospects. Archer turned out great for them but he wasn't the name he is today in that package. If fact, think he was the second choices after the cubs said no on I believe Maples or someone like that.