Offseason discussion/rumors

[beckdawg]

I'm going to break with beckdawg on this one as I kind of like Shelby Miller. That said I don't understand the inconsistency and if the Cubs don't understand it either, and don't see a change there then I don't want him either. The thing is that he has good stuff and can put it together from time to time like he did in Atlanta in 2015. I'd be talking to the Mets about Zack Wheeler as well although you would presume they'd want to hang on to him to rebuild some value. I'm sure matt harvey would be available at the right price but I don't really his makeup much. There are some fits with the Mets though in offering guys like Candelerio, Happ or Victor Caratini although with their OF glut it would be tough to complete that package for either guy. I'd also look at the Braves who were said to have fallen out of love with Sean Newcomb but maybe they'll be less likely to move him after the trade of Rob Whalen to Seattle. There's always Sonny Gray lwho the Cubs are known to like but I know some here don't love him. Maybe there some names I'm missing too.

IDK if he's actually available but if the Yankees would trade Luis Severino he's the guy probably above most I'd like to have. He doesn't quite have the k/9 of someone like Archer but he has a career 47.4% GB rate and 23.4%/28.0% soft/hard contact rates. Hendricks as a reference point was at 25.0%/25.8% this season and has a career 49.4% ground ball rate. That being said, he's not really thrown a ton of innings in any one year. Doing some quick mental math i don't think he's thrown more than 150 innings in any year in the minors.

Oh also Dylan Bundy if he can stay healthy. But given the O's are competing this year and they lack pitching that seems unlikely.

 

[Omeletpants]

Not trading within the same city has been going on for 100 years. The Yankees dont trade with the Mets, the Phillies never traded with the A's, etc. It's more than just the talent, it's about winning hearts and minds of the fans which also leads to long term success of a franchise

 

[beckdawg]

Not trading within the same city has been going on for 100 years. The Yankees dont trade with the Mets, etc. It's more than just the talent, it's about winning hearts and minds of the fans which also leads to long term success of a franchise

Long term success...
Chicago sports teams....

You can only pick one of those two

 

[beckdawg]

The Mets have struck a deal to re-sign star slugger Yoenis Cespedes, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/mets-to-re-sign-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

[brett05]

Soler for Kershaw and prospects? Let Kershaw and Montgomery battle it out for 5th starter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What specs do you think the Dodgers will add in on the deal? DeLeon would be nice.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Mets have struck a deal to re-sign star slugger Yoenis Cespedes, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/mets-to-re-sign-yoenis-cespedes.html

I'm at least a little surprised on this. I thought someone would give him the 5th year for sure and the Mets had said they would only go 4. Either his market wasn't what he thought or he really wanted to be a Mets player.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm at least a little surprised on this. I thought someone would give him the 5th year for sure and the Mets had said they would only go 4. Either his market wasn't what he thought or he really wanted to be a Mets player.

Also likely takes one of the Fowler suitors out for whatever that is worth.

 

[DanTown]

I'm at least a little surprised on this. I thought someone would give him the 5th year for sure and the Mets had said they would only go 4. Either his market wasn't what he thought or he really wanted to be a Mets player.

To be fair, I'd probably rather have 4/110 and a full no-trade than something like 5/120 in some other city without the no trade. Kind of shocked the Mets caved here. That probably pushes Dex closer to 4/80 than 4/60 if this deal impacts the market.

 

[beckdawg]

Not sure if any of you guys care but humble bundle has out of the park 17 in it for $1 or whatever you want to pay. It's a pretty fun baseball simulator. Definitely worth a buck or two

https://www.humblebundle.com/tycoon-simulator-bundle

 

[chibears55]

@mlbdailydish: Cubs have signed Jon Jay to a 1-year, $8 million contract: http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/11...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter


I got this one right
?


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I527 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Well not surprising. 8 mil for Jay and 500K for Almora. Takes some pressure off Zobrist leading off.

Not bad but I'm not sure what direction they are thinking long term with the lead off.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well not surprising. 8 mil for Jay and 500K for Almora. Takes some pressure off Zobrist leading off.

Not bad but I'm not sure what direction they are thinking long term with the lead off.

Maybe they aren't as eager to trade Happ as some of the esteemed forumites here think.

 

[CSF77]

I'm hearing Jay has strong D with a noodle arm.

Though it 9th inning we will see Jay/Almora/Heyward every day about.


IDK on Happ to be honest. If Baez didn't emerge last off season then he would have been the conclusion at 2B. But we all saw Baez pull off some D that left us speechless.

That said it puts Happ into a situation where there has to be a trade to create a role for him.

Right now we are looking at it as where are they playing Zobrist? If Joe sits with Baez at 2B every day it pushes Zo back into a role that he wanted to move from.

So IDK. There is no clear answer. Sure if he was a plus CF then we would be talking Almora as a sub. But if Almora is able to get his walk rate up to 10% it ends the lead off issue also.

 

[chibears55]

I'm hearing Jay has strong D with a noodle arm.

Though it 9th inning we will see Jay/Almora/Heyward every day about.


IDK on Happ to be honest. If Baez didn't emerge last off season then he would have been the conclusion at 2B. But we all saw Baez pull off some D that left us speechless.

That said it puts Happ into a situation where there has to be a trade to create a role for him.

Right now we are looking at it as where are they playing Zobrist? If Joe sits with Baez at 2B every day it pushes Zo back into a role that he wanted to move from.

So IDK. There is no clear answer. Sure if he was a plus CF then we would be talking Almora as a sub. But if Almora is able to get his walk rate up to 10% it ends the lead off issue also.

My thinking on Zobrist is it put him as the RH platoon in LF with Schwarber , whom I think the Cubs are going to want to bring a long slowly running around in outfield in April and May and in RF for Heyward though probably limited against tougher lefties.

Zobrist can also get his ABs playing some 3B against tougher RHers to give Bryant rest , probably play some 1B give Rizzo rest and of course 2B..

So, being a solid SH who can play multiple positions he will get plenty of starts/ABs throughout the year plus get his own rest being that he is 37...
Pretty nice guy to have on the bench

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

My thinking on Zobrist is it put him as the RH platoon in LF with Schwarber , whom I think the Cubs are going to want to bring a long slowly running around in outfield in April and May and in RF for Heyward though probably limited against tougher lefties.

Zobrist can also get his ABs playing some 3B against tougher RHers to give Bryant rest , probably play some 1B give Rizzo rest and of course 2B..

So, being a solid SH who can play multiple positions he will get plenty of starts/ABs throughout the year plus get his own rest being that he is 37...
Pretty nice guy to have on the bench

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

In theory that is fine. But here is the reality. If Schwarber comes out and hits lefties also and paces Bryant you are playing him every day. Like I said 9th inning with the lead you put Jay/Almora/Heyward to close. Game on the line you are not taking his bat out.

Baez needs to get his BB rate up. But his plus D up the middle is game changing. So again it closes the playing time for Z. Especially if his walk rate goes up. I personally think he should stick with his approach vs lefties. But vs RHP he should sit on pitches more and work the count. If they are attacking the zone then swing. But if they are not throwing strikes then take 1B.

So at the end of the day, If Baez and Schwarber meet their potential you are not subbing them outside of a breather day here and there on a long playing stretch.

 

[chibears55]

In theory that is fine. But here is the reality. If Schwarber comes out and hits lefties also and paces Bryant you are playing him every day. Like I said 9th inning with the lead you put Jay/Almora/Heyward to close. Game on the line you are not taking his bat out.

Baez needs to get his BB rate up. But his plus D up the middle is game changing. So again it closes the playing time for Z. Especially if his walk rate goes up. I personally think he should stick with his approach vs lefties. But vs RHP he should sit on pitches more and work the count. If they are attacking the zone then swing. But if they are not throwing strikes then take 1B.

So at the end of the day, If Baez and Schwarber meet their potential you are not subbing them outside of a breather day here and there on a long playing stretch.

If their going to take it slow as I stated with Schwarber playing regularly in OF, then yes he likely to sit against most lefties in April and May and come out late in games for defensive purposes or blowouts.

Having him healthy in August September October more important then getting him AB against lefties in April and May..
So, no need to have him go all out in April and May when they have suitable backup.

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

I can see him getting 6 innings in per game then Almora comes in to CF and Jay moves to left. That would be if they have the lead. If they are behind I doubt they yank his bat.

Off days vs lefties if he is struggling vs them.

I honestly see it as Soler gets LF duty and Zo gets RF duty. He then gets some AB's in at 2B when Baez gets moved around.

VS LHP

Zobrist
Bryant
Rizzo
Soler
Russell
Contreras
Baez
Almora

RHP
Jay
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Heyward
Contreras

Now if Baez and Schwarber become full time players:

Jay
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Heyward
Russell
Contreras

That last line up could become a staple with Zo subbing in to give days off.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not sure it's going to be as simple as Almora vs LHP and Jay vs RHP for two reasons. The first is obvious that Almora is the long term fixture here. LHP consists about 25% of pitchers in the majors. Sitting him 3/4 the time just doesn't make sense considering if things go to plan he will be your 2018 every day CF. The second reason is Almora had reverse platoon splits last season. He hit for more power vs LHP but he was considerably better in avg and OBP vs RHP at .262/.279/.548 vs LHP and .286/.324/.400 vs RHP. The slg is almost assuredly a sample size issue as that would be a .286 ISO for a guy who's really never been above .140 ISO.

Jay is some what platoon neutral. On his career, he has hit .284/.352/.354 vs LHP and .288/.352/.394 vs RHP. So, you're talking more power vs RHP but he's largely the same guy vs lefties. I personally would expect them to generally start Almora vs RHP. I think Jay's role might be more dynamic. Starting him against LHP obviously makes sense. He also can probably lead off. So, if we're working under the assumption that Zobrist is the primary lead of guy, Jay starting on days he's out of the line up also makes sense.

My first reaction to the move was "$8 mil? That seems like a fair bit of money." After it sunk in a bit and I looked over the numbers I'm actually really fine with it. $8 mil is basically a 1 win expectation. Considering Szczur was able to put up 0.7 fWAR last year. And that actually brings up an interesting subject of the OF depth. So presumably your starters are Schwarber Almora and Heyward. Jay is now one of your two primary back ups. Typically speaking, if you run 13 position players you only carry 5 OFers. There's talk of adding a 26th active roster slot. However, maddon has liked to use 13 relievers and 3 C's. If that indeed is the route they go down, you're only talking about one back up at infield and outfield. With them also having to find playing time for Zobrist/Baez, it would seem unnecessary for them to carry a 5th OF.

Obviously Soler is being discussed as a trade piece. But the side effect would also be having to move Szczur because he's out of options.

 

[Diehardfan]

Projecting lineups in MLB is kind of a waste of time and energy. There is virtually no set lineups anymore...even more so here. I don't know how many different lineups Maddon used last year but I'm sure it's over 100....I know he used 151 in 2012 with Tampa. This Cub team with all the versatility it has is perfect for a guy like him.

 

[brett05]

I'm at least a little surprised on this. I thought someone would give him the 5th year for sure and the Mets had said they would only go 4. Either his market wasn't what he thought or he really wanted to be a Mets player.

I can't wait to see his new rides this ST.