Offseason discussion/rumors

[brett05]

Not sure if any of you guys care but humble bundle has out of the park 17 in it for $1 or whatever you want to pay. It's a pretty fun baseball simulator. Definitely worth a buck or two

https://www.humblebundle.com/tycoon-simulator-bundle

Thanks beckdawg. I played OOTP a few years ago on an iPad. It was decent enough, especially the AI on trades. It wouldn't let you rip off teams. Just bought mine.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs/

 

[DanTown]

I'm not sure it's going to be as simple as Almora vs LHP and Jay vs RHP for two reasons. The first is obvious that Almora is the long term fixture here. LHP consists about 25% of pitchers in the majors. Sitting him 3/4 the time just doesn't make sense considering if things go to plan he will be your 2018 every day CF. The second reason is Almora had reverse platoon splits last season. He hit for more power vs LHP but he was considerably better in avg and OBP vs RHP at .262/.279/.548 vs LHP and .286/.324/.400 vs RHP. The slg is almost assuredly a sample size issue as that would be a .286 ISO for a guy who's really never been above .140 ISO.

Jay is some what platoon neutral. On his career, he has hit .284/.352/.354 vs LHP and .288/.352/.394 vs RHP. So, you're talking more power vs RHP but he's largely the same guy vs lefties. I personally would expect them to generally start Almora vs RHP. I think Jay's role might be more dynamic. Starting him against LHP obviously makes sense. He also can probably lead off. So, if we're working under the assumption that Zobrist is the primary lead of guy, Jay starting on days he's out of the line up also makes sense.

My first reaction to the move was "$8 mil? That seems like a fair bit of money." After it sunk in a bit and I looked over the numbers I'm actually really fine with it. $8 mil is basically a 1 win expectation. Considering Szczur was able to put up 0.7 fWAR last year. And that actually brings up an interesting subject of the OF depth. So presumably your starters are Schwarber Almora and Heyward. Jay is now one of your two primary back ups. Typically speaking, if you run 13 position players you only carry 5 OFers. There's talk of adding a 26th active roster slot. However, maddon has liked to use 13 relievers and 3 C's. If that indeed is the route they go down, you're only talking about one back up at infield and outfield. With them also having to find playing time for Zobrist/Baez, it would seem unnecessary for them to carry a 5th OF.

Obviously Soler is being discussed as a trade piece. But the side effect would also be having to move Szczur because he's out of options.

Jon Jay didn't take a one year deal to be a backup. I assume the plan is to have Almora work on his hitting every day at Iowa and then start him next year in CF. The Cubs, probably rightly, looked at the advanced numbers on Almora and thought his swing wasn't ready to play every day and get 400 PA. Even with a Soler trade, I think the next man up in terms of playing time would be Candelario and then having Bryant play more in the OF (or having Jeimer learn the COF).

Almora is still young (he's 23 in April) that there is no real reason to rush his progress. He's still only at 450 PA at AAA+ so another year in AAA isn't the worst of things for his development. And with the talent and depth this team has, I just can't envision Almora ever having the opportunity to be a consistent lineup option for this team. The Jay signing also might mean the Soler market is so weak right now the Cubs don't feel there's any value to trading him. Sure they'd move him for value but they won't just move him to do it. And if Soler is here, then the opportunity for Almora PA shrinks. I mean, the Cubs have probably 12 guys right now who could probably be 3+ WAR players with 500 PA (Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Russell, Baez, Zobrist, Heyward, Jay, Almora, Soler, Contreras, Candelario) so if you can keep guys down in Iowa to continue to develop, why wouldn't you?

Almora will be back here with an injury to either Heyward or Jay so it's not like he's been banished from the roster.

 

[beckdawg]

Thanks beckdawg. I played OOTP a few years ago on an iPad. It was decent enough, especially the AI on trades. It wouldn't let you rip off teams. Just bought mine.

I had a different humble bundle deal with ootp 15. The AI was kinda of stupid then. Like you could have a starter who had a sub 2 ERA on a losing team and try to deal him at the deadline and they'd offer you garbage. I might have to bump of the difficulty but I shopped Wei-Yin Chen who's got a 2.94 ERA near the deadline and the AI offered me Jameson Tailion. That seems a bit too much return for Chen but it's not that crazy.

I haven't played a ton yet but i'm pretty happy so far with the difference from 15 to 17. The new owner system is interesting.

 

[beckdawg]

Jon Jay didn't take a one year deal to be a backup.

You're assuming he had the choice of being a starter. I strongly doubt he had multiple year offers.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You're assuming he had the choice of being a starter. I strongly doubt he had multiple year offers.

He didn't sign for 1 year this early in FA if he felt their was a starter's market for him. He was signed to be a platoon partner with Almora and another piece to the OF mix which will most likely be Heyward, Jay, Almora, Schwarber and Zobrist. he's coming off an injury plagued season where he was a 1 fWAR player. He was paid as such but I'm sure he would rather show he's capable of being more again and sign a longer deal next offseason.

 

[DanTown]

He didn't sign for 1 year this early in FA if he felt their was a starter's market for him. He was signed to be a platoon partner with Almora and another piece to the OF mix which will most likely be Heyward, Jay, Almora, Schwarber and Zobrist. he's coming off an injury plagued season where he was a 1 fWAR player. He was paid as such but I'm sure he would rather show he's capable of being more again and sign a longer deal next offseason.

Jon Jay isn't a platoon guy (either in his splits or in his career playing time) and if he was signed to platoon with Almora, what does that mean for the rest of the team? Even assuming you take Soler off the team, where are the PA for Heyward, Schwarber, Almora, Jay, Bryant, Zobrist, and Baez? Why would you even need or want Almora to get split PA? The Jay signing is a clear indication that if Almora isn't a full-time starter by spring training that he'll go to Iowa and get reps everyday as opposed to playing part-time here. The Cubs don't bring up young guys as platoon guys, they bring them here because they're everyday guys. I mean what's the difference between Szczur and Almora in a platoon while Almora can continue to develop?

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...will-be-all-in-on-japanese-star-shohei-otani/

yes please.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...will-be-all-in-on-japanese-star-shohei-otani/

yes please.

It would make less sense if they didn't have him targeted. They, like a lot of execs, have probably had their eye on him since he was 12.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jon Jay isn't a platoon guy (either in his splits or in his career playing time) and if he was signed to platoon with Almora, what does that mean for the rest of the team? Even assuming you take Soler off the team, where are the PA for Heyward, Schwarber, Almora, Jay, Bryant, Zobrist, and Baez? Why would you even need or want Almora to get split PA? The Jay signing is a clear indication that if Almora isn't a full-time starter by spring training that he'll go to Iowa and get reps everyday as opposed to playing part-time here. The Cubs don't bring up young guys as platoon guys, they bring them here because they're everyday guys. I mean what's the difference between Szczur and Almora in a platoon while Almora can continue to develop?

Hey, you could very well be right but of all the analysis I've seen and read on this since yesterday yours is the first I've seen that isn't just assuming that Jay is Almora insurance as opposed to a full time starting CF. Knowing that they expected Almora to be ready last year and he wasn't quite and seeing on how much they liked him once they came up, I would be surprised to see him the minor leagues. That's all I got.

 

[beckdawg]

It would make less sense if they didn't have him targeted. They, like a lot of execs, have probably had their eye on him since he was 12.

I know but it's nice that they seemingly are actually planning for the eventuality vs other teams who will say they are interested then not have the money.

 

[beckdawg]

Hey, you could very well be right but of all the analysis I've seen and read on this since yesterday yours is the first I've seen that isn't just assuming that Jay is Almora insurance as opposed to a full time starting CF. Knowing that they expected Almora to be ready last year and he wasn't quite and seeing on how much they liked him once they came up, I would be surprised to see him the minor leagues. That's all I got.

Didn't theo basically say they wanted someone to compliment Almora? That doesn't sound like talk of sending Almora to AAA or having him play off the bench.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Didn't theo basically say they wanted someone to compliment Almora? That doesn't sound like talk of sending Almora to AAA or having him play off the bench.

They absolutely did which is why disagree with DanTown. I get what he's saying though about playing time. There's a deal coming but what shape that deal might take who knows?

 

[DanTown]

Just for reference sake, Jay + Arrieta + Motero + Lackey make about 50 million dollars this year. Assume that Otani even costs close to 30 million of that next year, the Cubs would still have a ton of money left over. Assume by 2018 that if he's not dealt that they have Happ as an option to platoon and leadoff at 2B/LF with Zobrist and Schwarber?

My dream 2019 lineup
Happ - 2B
Schwarber - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Eloy - RF
Russell - SS
Contreras - C
Almora - CF

Rotation
Otani, Kershaw, Hendricks, Lester, Cease

 

[brett05]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/...will-be-all-in-on-japanese-star-shohei-otani/

yes please.

I agree with the article. Unless the dollars increase a ton for the posting fee, why not use up all his eligibility first.

 

[brett05]

Just for reference sake, Jay + Arrieta + Motero + Lackey make about 50 million dollars this year. Assume that Otani even costs close to 30 million of that next year, the Cubs can sign someone like Tyson Ross to an incentive laden deal (3-45 with 4th year team option of 18 million and incentives to push it to 3/60) and see what happens with Almora in CF? Assume by 2018 that if he's not dealt that they have Happ as an option to platoon and leadoff at 2B with Zobrist and Schwarber?

My dream 2019 lineup
Happ - 2B
Schwarber - LF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Eloy - RF
Russell - SS
Contreras - C
Almora - CF

Rotation
Otani, Kershaw, Hendricks, Lester, Cease

Kershaw????

 

[beckdawg]

I agree with the article. Unless the dollars increase a ton for the posting fee, why not use up all his eligibility first.

I'm not 100% on how the process works. But typically speaking I think teams will largely honor the wishes of the player as to not **** him over. In the case of Otani he REALLY is gonna wanna be a part of next year's FA class. This year doesn't make a ton of sense because he'd technically be treated as an IFA under the same restrictions as the 16 year old latin players. Next year that goes away which means the big market teams like cubs dodgers and yankees can go after him. Additionally, next year is also fairly devoid of FA talent. 2018 however.... that's when things start getting interesting again in terms of FA.

 

[beckdawg]

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Hoyer: never close door on Fowler reunion, but Almora definitely ready to play CF in big leagues.

Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales
Hoyer: Jay "an excellent fit" cites leadership role, endorsement from teammates, "excellent" complement to Almora Jr.

Gary Cohen @GaryCohen10
Hoyer: Playing time between Almora and Jay will depend on how each is performing. Good balance between them. #Cubs

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I agree with the article. Unless the dollars increase a ton for the posting fee, why not use up all his eligibility first.

It's not stated in the piece but I have read elsewhere that Otani's original wishes were that he did not want to be drafted into NPB but after discussing with league officials he amended his request to just knowing that his ultimate goal was to be an MLB player a wish that the Nippon-Ham Fighters have always said they wish to honor. After first bringing him up here last month I've actually done a lot of reading on this kid and the most likely explanation why they will not post him this year is that at 22 years old he still falls under the MLB international signing rules which impose a 100% tax on any salary signed. Also most of the teams that would be able to afford him are prohibited from signing international FA outside of a miniscule dollar figure. that includes the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees. He did help win them a championship this year and they are the favorites next year as well. If they have another great season it would make sense to honor his dream next year when he's 23 years old and is free to sign outside of the international signing system. As the piece notes that also puts him a year ahead of the potentially historic FA class coming out after 2018.

edit: here's one of the pieces spelling out much of what I wrote here

http://www.baseballamerica.com/inte...Anthem&utm_source=twitter#gPEphxDWeL7vIkch.97

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not 100% on how the process works. But typically speaking I think teams will largely honor the wishes of the player as to not **** him over. In the case of Otani he REALLY is gonna wanna be a part of next year's FA class. This year doesn't make a ton of sense because he'd technically be treated as an IFA under the same restrictions as the 16 year old latin players. Next year that goes away which means the big market teams like cubs dodgers and yankees can go after him. Additionally, next year is also fairly devoid of FA talent. 2018 however.... that's when things start getting interesting again in terms of FA.

Sorry I should have read your post first. You basically said exactly what I just posted in far less words. Mea culpa.