Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

I mean it might be but IIRC the break even point for stealing being worth it was something like 80% effectiveness which he was in 2014/15. Also while I get the math behind saying stuff like stealing is bad, I think there's other considerations. Getting an early lead can be a big deal. It changes how you manage a game. If you're down 2-0 in a pitcher duel type game you may yank your starter early to get a pinch hitter in and then you're relying on the bullpen the rest of the game.

I'm not saying I have all the answers with regard to that but it just feels to me like the cubs are one of two offenses on any given day. Either they cream the shit out of the team or they can't manufacture runs to save their life. I have to believe a least a small issue with that is playing more small ball.

That is true. But I kinda look at it via historical under Theo. They added speed when the rosters expanded but they refused to tie up a 25 man on it.

 

[CSF77]

Supposedly the Dodgers are back in on Machado.....

Have a source? It feels off with 3B and SS set with plus talent.

 

[fatbeard]

Same logic applied to Schwarber injured and Soler season long injury .

As Beck pointed out they signed Heyward to play CF. Fowler took a pillow contract in spring. They made a choice to go with a younger player and paid him at market value or above.

So basically they were planning on Schwarber/Heyward/Soler. Fowler fell into their laps then the injury to Schwarber then Soler got injured. LF then became a pivot for Joe at that point and there must have been 10 players out there in 16.

Regardless it was a choice to spend big on Heyward. They didn't have to as they had a lead off CF that they chose not to extend a deal to for what ever reason

And talking how the Cards absorbed a bad contract in Fowler. It pails compared to Heyward. As is Heyward would have to pull back to back 5 WAR seasons to break even right now.

Both Heyward and Zobrist were priorities to sign because of their K%. The primary flaw with the 2015 offense, exposed by the Mets in the NLCS, was the lack of contact and the prevalence of high-K% all-or-nothing hitters up and down the lineup. The Cubs were never going to just stop with Zobrist; they wanted to add two bats to balance the lineup out. The Heyward signing was completely justified at the time. Stop with the revisionist history.

 

[CSF77]

Both Heyward and Zobrist were priorities to sign because of their K%. The primary flaw with the 2015 offense, exposed by the Mets in the NLCS, was the lack of contact and the prevalence of high-K% all-or-nothing hitters up and down the lineup. The Cubs were never going to just stop with Zobrist; they wanted to add two bats to balance the lineup out. The Heyward signing was completely justified at the time. Stop with the revisionist history.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0

They were #4 in WAR that year.
Led the league in K's. Ill give you that.
#3 in BB%
#12 in OBA
#15 in runs scored.

2016: led league in WAR
#15 in SO
#1 in BB
#2 OBA
#3 in runs scored.


So what you said holds true in the complete improvement.

2015 PA/fWAR
Rizzo 701/5.2
Fowler 690/3.0 f
Bryant 650/6.1
Castro 578/0.6
Russell 523/2.6
Coghlan 503/3.2
Soler 404/0.3
Montero 403/2.0

2016 PA/fWAR
Bryant 699/7.9
Rizzo 676/4.9
Zobrist 631/4.0
Russell 598/3.4
Heyward 592/1.0
Fowler 551/4.6
Baez 450/2.2
Montero 284/0.0
Contreras (adding a 9th here) 283/2.3

So looking it over
1. Bryant pushed a 7.9 fWAR. That was a 1.8 increase which is adding another player worth of value.
2. Castro->Zobrist was a 3.4 fWAR increase. I've never had a issue with Zo. Best signing by far.
3. Coghlan put up a 3.2 fWAR. Heyward pushed a 1. That is honestly an embarrassment.
4. Baez was a impact that was not there. He began his break out in 2016 and freed up Zo to help elsewhere.
5. Contreras pretty much was a wash with Montero. Looking deeper Ross put up a 1.7 in 16 vs a 0 in 15.

So it was a team wide effort. If you had to point out 1 player that impacted the most it is Zobrist. 2nd Baez. 3rd Bryant just because his bar was that high already. Heyward was a determent and has been ever sense.

Now looking at it they didn't have to spend on Heyward. They really didn't. Zo made sense with the connection with Joe and they had to trade Castro to create playing time. By the results it worked out fantastic. They moved on from Coghlan in left because they decided that Schwarber was not a catcher and needed a spot for his bat. That is why they let him go. (resigned but that is a digress). So going into 2016 they had Schwarber in LF Soler in RF. Fowler wanted a multi year deal and they choose to ink Heyward instead. That is it. The whole Fowler resigning happened in spring. The Cubs made their bed and that was unexpected.

So yes there were some improvements that were needed but the answers ended up coming from with in.

So I guess my point in this is the answers sometimes are with in vs looking outside. So get over the Harper tragedy. Not you Fat as I know that you don't give a damn about him.

 

[fatbeard]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.a...&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0

They were #4 in WAR that year.
Led the league in K's. Ill give you that.
#3 in BB%
#12 in OBA
#15 in runs scored.

2016: led league in WAR
#15 in SO
#1 in BB
#2 OBA
#3 in runs scored.


So what you said holds true in the complete improvement.

2015 PA/fWAR
Rizzo 701/5.2
Fowler 690/3.0 f
Bryant 650/6.1
Castro 578/0.6
Russell 523/2.6
Coghlan 503/3.2
Soler 404/0.3
Montero 403/2.0

2016 PA/fWAR
Bryant 699/7.9
Rizzo 676/4.9
Zobrist 631/4.0
Russell 598/3.4
Heyward 592/1.0
Fowler 551/4.6
Baez 450/2.2
Montero 284/0.0
Contreras (adding a 9th here) 283/2.3

So looking it over
1. Bryant pushed a 7.9 fWAR. That was a 1.8 increase which is adding another player worth of value.
2. Castro->Zobrist was a 3.4 fWAR increase. I've never had a issue with Zo. Best signing by far.
3. Coghlan put up a 3.2 fWAR. Heyward pushed a 1. That is honestly an embarrassment.
4. Baez was a impact that was not there. He began his break out in 2016 and freed up Zo to help elsewhere.
5. Contreras pretty much was a wash with Montero. Looking deeper Ross put up a 1.7 in 16 vs a 0 in 15.

So it was a team wide effort. If you had to point out 1 player that impacted the most it is Zobrist. 2nd Baez. 3rd Bryant just because his bar was that high already. Heyward was a determent and has been ever sense.

Now looking at it they didn't have to spend on Heyward. They really didn't. Zo made sense with the connection with Joe and they had to trade Castro to create playing time. By the results it worked out fantastic. They moved on from Coghlan in left because they decided that Schwarber was not a catcher and needed a spot for his bat. That is why they let him go. (resigned but that is a digress). So going into 2016 they had Schwarber in LF Soler in RF. Fowler wanted a multi year deal and they choose to ink Heyward instead. That is it. The whole Fowler resigning happened in spring. The Cubs made their bed and that was unexpected.

So yes there were some improvements that were needed but the answers ended up coming from with in.

So I guess my point in this is the answers sometimes are with in vs looking outside. So get over the Harper tragedy. Not you Fat as I know that you don't give a damn about him.

Allow me to summarize: "The Cubs should've known that they didn't need Jason Heyward in December of 2015 because of data that only became available to them after the 2016 season had concluded."

You have to judge decisions in the context of the information available to the decisionmakers at the time. They couldn't know that Heyward would stink, and they couldn't know that the entire roster would have career years in 2016. They had just been boat-raced out of the NLCS by an overpowering Mets pitching staff, and they knew they needed more contact in the lineup.

 

[CSF77]

Allow me to summarize: "The Cubs should've known that they didn't need Jason Heyward in December of 2015 because of data that only became available to them after the 2016 season had concluded."

You have to judge decisions in the context of the information available to the decisionmakers at the time. They couldn't know that Heyward would stink, and they couldn't know that the entire roster would have career years in 2016. They had just been boat-raced out of the NLCS by an overpowering Mets pitching staff, and they knew they needed more contact in the lineup.

So they traded their best contact hitter? That doesn't make sense.

They lost to the Mets because the Mets had the best staff going in. Cards were over rated and got smacked. Mets had a legit rotation vs one led by Lackey.

The biggest difference between 2015 and 16 was the rotation. Plain and simple. Hendricks broke out and led in ERA. Jon put a Cy-young run. 2015 Jake carried that team.

So stop trying to justify Heyward's contract. It sounds plain dumb. 2015 was a young team that over achieved. They had talent in place and more upwelling from the top farm in baseball driven by hitting talent. They had Almora pending but no legit lead off upwelling. They had 2 corner OF on the major league team. Baez ran a 50% SO rate and no one knew if he was a failed pick.

So with Castro pushing a .6 signing Zo made sense. Baez looked bust.

Now Heyward's situation.

Fowler they could have signed to stay in CF. They chose not to. Now I believe the reason was Almora. Not blocking their first draft pick. So they signed Heyward and then could move him back to his natural spot. We saw this illustrated in 2017 with Jay babysitting Jr.

Regardless I'm kinda done arguing with you. If you want to think that them spending 184 mil on a converted CF made perfect sense with no lead off going into 2016 that is fine. As I posted it was a poor decision that to date has not been rectified.

 

[fatbeard]

So they traded their best contact hitter? That doesn't make sense.

They lost to the Mets because the Mets had the best staff going in. Cards were over rated and got smacked. Mets had a legit rotation vs one led by Lackey.

The biggest difference between 2015 and 16 was the rotation. Plain and simple. Hendricks broke out and led in ERA. Jon put a Cy-young run. 2015 Jake carried that team.

So stop trying to justify Heyward's contract. It sounds plain dumb. 2015 was a young team that over achieved. They had talent in place and more upwelling from the top farm in baseball driven by hitting talent. They had Almora pending but no legit lead off upwelling. They had 2 corner OF on the major league team. Baez ran a 50% SO rate and no one knew if he was a failed pick.

So with Castro pushing a .6 signing Zo made sense. Baez looked bust.

Now Heyward's situation.

Fowler they could have signed to stay in CF. They chose not to. Now I believe the reason was Almora. Not blocking their first draft pick. So they signed Heyward and then could move him back to his natural spot. We saw this illustrated in 2017 with Jay babysitting Jr.

Regardless I'm kinda done arguing with you. If you want to think that them spending 184 mil on a converted CF made perfect sense with no lead off going into 2016 that is fine. As I posted it was a poor decision that to date has not been rectified.

Characterizing Heyward in December 2015 as merely "a converted CF" is dishonestly ignoring the fact that he was a perennial 4-5 fWAR player who fit the exact profile the Cubs were looking for (contact & defense). His deal, given his age and production to that date, was completely justified.

 

[CSF77]

Characterizing Heyward in December 2015 as merely "a converted CF" is dishonestly ignoring the fact that he was a perennial 4-5 fWAR player who fit the exact profile the Cubs were looking for (contact & defense). His deal, given his age and production to that date, was completely justified.

Not when you had Eloy, Almora, McKinney and Torres still in the system at that point. Signing Heyward closed a door and made these players expendable. At this point the Cubs had a top 5 system and all we're tossed away for short term gains.

Again when you are building from with in the farm it really went against what they were building up towards. That money could have went to a closer vs spending 2 on a rent. Could have been used on a pitcher vs flipping your top 2 prospects.

Again it comes down to choices and this one has fallen into the category of E-Jax and Chatwood. Came out of nowhere.

 

[CSF77]

Regardless as far as going forward the pressure goes more on Schwarber and Happ to make up for Heyward's lackings. Having Heyward absorbing contract forces them to play him. It forces them to bench Almora who gives simmiler production at a fraction of the cost.

It also impacted this off season. They were handcuffed and couldn't offload these bad deals.

 

[chibears55]

Have a source? It feels off with 3B and SS set with plus talent.

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1086487827041447937?s=19

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1086487827041447937?s=19

Most were speculating the 2 teams were the SDP and NYM. I can see the Mets being the favored if true as their staff holds up and they upgraded their pen. Adding a impact bat is only natural.

 

[fatbeard]

Not when you had Eloy, Almora, McKinney and Torres still in the system at that point. Signing Heyward closed a door and made these players expendable. At this point the Cubs had a top 5 system and all we're tossed away for short term gains.

Again when you are building from with in the farm it really went against what they were building up towards. That money could have went to a closer vs spending 2 on a rent. Could have been used on a pitcher vs flipping your top 2 prospects.

Again it comes down to choices and this one has fallen into the category of E-Jax and Chatwood. Came out of nowhere.

After their 2015 performance, the Cubs expected themselves to contend for a WS in 2016. What good do Jimenez, Almora, McKinney, and Torres do for you in terms of winning a WS in 2016...or even 2017? The Cubs knew after the 2015 NLCS that to contend they needed more contact and defense, and they couldn't rely on unproven prospects to give them that (especially from guys who have still not hit the majors...three years later) You are being disingenuous ​again.

 

[Omeletpants]

After their 2015 performance, the Cubs expected themselves to contend for a WS in 2016. What good do Jimenez, Almora, McKinney, and Torres do for you in terms of winning a WS in 2016...or even 2017? The Cubs knew after the 2015 NLCS that to contend they needed more contact and defense, and they couldn't rely on unproven prospects to give them that (especially from guys who have still not hit the majors...three years later) You are being disingenuous ​again.

True. I was all about "winning now"

 

[chibears55]

How can you complain about the guy who in a game 7 of a WS, verbally won them the world series with a great speech ..
That was worth millions
[emoji57][emoji57]

 

[CSF77]

If Theo had to do that again he would have passed. That is all that matters.

I look at it as if they didn't win a ring Theo would have been canned for signing that deal. The problem is as more time passes on that deal looks more and more boneheaded.

 

[fatbeard]

If Theo had to do that again he would have passed. That is all that matters.

Don't strain your back moving those goalposts.

I look at it as if they didn't win a ring Theo would have been canned for signing that deal.

This is a comically bad take. As in really, really, epically, awfully bad. Find me one bit of reporting that even remotely implies Epstein would've been fired over the Heyward deal had they not won the WS in 2016.

I'll wait.

 

[CSF77]

I look at it as if I hired a broker and gave him 184M and lost my ass then I would have no choice in the matter because that broker was wrong on his choices. You can't fire the player but you sure can fire the decision maker.

The ring bought Theo time. He unloaded the talent that he built in the aftermath. For 2 failed attempts.

Eventually it will come down to getting these investments to produce to contract value or ridding the problem. It goes that far I doubt it will be Theo doing it.

 

[CSF77]

Don't strain your back moving those goalposts.



This is a comically bad take. As in really, really, epically, awfully bad. Find me one bit of reporting that even remotely implies Epstein would've been fired over the Heyward deal had they not won the WS in 2016.

I'll wait.

I wouldn't doubt that was a factor going into the deadline. Heyward was broken and Theo might have made a collosal **** up and a ring cures all

 

[CSF77]

Anyways I said the money should have been used towards a closer. We know Theo doesn't care for heavy closer investments. That is on him. But most of us knew that Rondon was playing the part vs a high quality closer.

He will do it again this year. Just watch more talent go for rents.

 

[CSF77]

Makes me wonder if Tom shut down Harper for this reason. He is sitting on a bad mega and pretty much told Theo if you can rid those poor investments then I'll greenlight it. No team was willing to deal with Theo and this is the result.

Wouldn't shock me if this is how it played out. It is not like the Ricketts can't afford it. It was more to do tossing more and more at a problem that was caused by tossing money