Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[anotheridiot]

That's not even comparing similar things. MLB teams roster 40 players. NBA teams roster 13(one inactive). And more to the point, a guy like Lebron has a disproportional effect on the game as compared to an MLB player. Mike Trout is great but he's not single handedly taking LA to the world series every year. As such individual performance in baseball is less valuable.

NBA rosters 15, 12 dress for the game one inactive is the minimum allowed in the league and the league average is 14, plus they get two two way players with their G league. Dont compare it to 40, you are too smart for that, 40 is what they are allowed to PROTECT in MLB. You are comparing 15 to 25, not 13 to 40. But whatever makes your argument I guess. As far as Lebron, he is the second highest paid player, not first, and next year it will be Anthony Davis, not LeBron. 15th highest paid is the best player in the league in Durant.

Do you want to go to football with a 53 man roster?

 

[brett05]

I agree that's fairly low but you have to understand why. They break their WAR down as such

Grandal - 3.1
Aguilar - 1.3
Hernan Perez - 0.3
Orlando Arcia - 1.1
Travish Shaw - 2.6
Braun - 1.8
Yelich - 4.8
Cain - 3.8

Chacin - 1.2
Davies - 1.1
Anderson - 0.8
Woodruff - 1.2
Nelson - 1.6

Bench bats - 2.9
Bullpen - 6.2

The biggest thing there is it's not buying Aguilar's 2018 as he was a 3.1 win player and clearly had a career year. Perez seems perfectly reasonable because he's not that good. Arcia was terrible last year(-0.4). He did put up 1.4 the year prior so seems reasonable. Shaw was a 3.6 last year but typically these projections are conservative so while 2.6 might be a bit lower than I'd say it's not that far off. Braun was 1.3 fWAR last year so again reasonable. Yelich and Cain both had career years last year. Putting them at nearly 5/4 wins respectively seems fair.

Their starters are always going to be their weakness. So, I think that's fair. Their bullpen is given a pretty decent projection at 6.2. I'd probably put them closer to 85 wins but I think they are going to fall back pretty hard. They had like 5-6 guys who had career years one of which ended up being the best hitter in the NL when he's never been anywhere near that level of a hitter.

And they were without their Ace. And adding arguably the best defensive catcher will make the entire staff better. I'd be shocked if they were any worse than 90 wins and a 3rd place finish.

 

[SchwarberRuth]

I agree that's fairly low but you have to understand why. They break their WAR down as such

Grandal - 3.1
Aguilar - 1.3
Hernan Perez - 0.3
Orlando Arcia - 1.1
Travish Shaw - 2.6
Braun - 1.8
Yelich - 4.8
Cain - 3.8

Chacin - 1.2
Davies - 1.1
Anderson - 0.8
Woodruff - 1.2
Nelson - 1.6

Bench bats - 2.9
Bullpen - 6.2

The biggest thing there is it's not buying Aguilar's 2018 as he was a 3.1 win player and clearly had a career year. Perez seems perfectly reasonable because he's not that good. Arcia was terrible last year(-0.4). He did put up 1.4 the year prior so seems reasonable. Shaw was a 3.6 last year but typically these projections are conservative so while 2.6 might be a bit lower than I'd say it's not that far off. Braun was 1.3 fWAR last year so again reasonable. Yelich and Cain both had career years last year. Putting them at nearly 5/4 wins respectively seems fair.

Their starters are always going to be their weakness. So, I think that's fair. Their bullpen is given a pretty decent projection at 6.2. I'd probably put them closer to 85 wins but I think they are going to fall back pretty hard. They had like 5-6 guys who had career years one of which ended up being the best hitter in the NL when he's never been anywhere near that level of a hitter.

I think Arica could be break out canidate next year. He pummeled the Cubs at the end and was very solid in the postseason from what I can remember through my tears. They also have some very good young pitching. NL Central is going to be brutal.

 

[beckdawg]

NBA rosters 15, 12 dress for the game one inactive is the minimum allowed in the league and the league average is 14, plus they get two two way players with their G league. Dont compare it to 40, you are too smart for that, 40 is what they are allowed to PROTECT in MLB. You are comparing 15 to 25, not 13 to 40. But whatever makes your argument I guess. As far as Lebron, he is the second highest paid player, not first, and next year it will be Anthony Davis, not LeBron. 15th highest paid is the best player in the league in Durant.

Do you want to go to football with a 53 man roster?

If you're not counting the 15 men not on the active roster for MLB then you're not counting anyone after like the 8th guy on an NBA team either and the point still remains. You're paying 2x as many players.

 

[beckdawg]

And they were without their Ace. And adding arguably the best defensive catcher will make the entire staff better. I'd be shocked if they were any worse than 90 wins and a 3rd place finish.

I think they will be worse than 90 wins largely just because the division is that much better. I mean keep in mind they only won 95 games in their 162 and that's with 4-5 players having career years. If those players go back to career norms they are easily below 90 even before you factor in the division being better. I do agree though they wont be below 3rd. But, I think people are VASTLY underselling just how lucky they were in 2018

 

[beckdawg]

I think Arica could be break out canidate next year. He pummeled the Cubs at the end and was very solid in the postseason from what I can remember through my tears. They also have some very good young pitching. NL Central is going to be brutal.

Maybe but I wouldn't bet on it. His last year in the minors in AAA he hit .267/.320/.403(91 wRC+). It's not like he has proven to be able to hit high level pitching. I think he's just going to be a glove first guy

 

[brett05]

I think they will be worse than 90 wins largely just because the division is that much better. I mean keep in mind they only won 95 games in their 162 and that's with 4-5 players having career years. If those players go back to career norms they are easily below 90 even before you factor in the division being better. I do agree though they wont be below 3rd. But, I think people are VASTLY underselling just how lucky they were in 2018

ANd I think people are thinking guys like Cain and Yelich are flashes in the pan, that others can't improve and that missing an Ace is near meaningless.

The Reds are now the Pirates and the Pirates are the Reds. Still 2 BAD teams for me. Only the Cardinals actually improved a noticeable amount.

 

[beckdawg]

ANd I think people are thinking guys like Cain and Yelich are flashes in the pan, that others can't improve and that missing an Ace is near meaningless.

The Reds are now the Pirates and the Pirates are the Reds. Still 2 BAD teams for me. Only the Cardinals actually improved a noticeable amount.

I'm not sure I'd call the pirates and Reds "bad". Mediocre would be more how I would describe them. I mean even last year cincy was taking games off the cubs and pitt was taking games off MIL. I think there's a vast difference between these two teams and a team like Baltimore. The issue isn't so much that they are good teams. It's that there's no easy wins in the division. The central was already the most competitive division in baseball. Had the cubs played in any other NL division last year they would have been at home for the NLDS rather than the wild card and STL the #3 team finished 2.5 back in the wild card. PIT didn't get any worse and arguably will be better with a full year of Archer. I don't think they are much better but they won 82 games and I think they can repeat that. So, if you also have cincy in that 80 win range.... i mean that's probably the most competitive division in the last 20 years.

 

[anotheridiot]

Get a real catcher. Contreras can't pitch frame or call a game.

great. another one who prefers a guy stealing strikes instead of pitchers earning them.

 

[brett05]

I'm not sure I'd call the pirates and Reds "bad". Mediocre would be more how I would describe them. I mean even last year cincy was taking games off the cubs and pitt was taking games off MIL. I think there's a vast difference between these two teams and a team like Baltimore. The issue isn't so much that they are good teams. It's that there's no easy wins in the division. The central was already the most competitive division in baseball. Had the cubs played in any other NL division last year they would have been at home for the NLDS rather than the wild card and STL the #3 team finished 2.5 back in the wild card. PIT didn't get any worse and arguably will be better with a full year of Archer. I don't think they are much better but they won 82 games and I think they can repeat that. So, if you also have cincy in that 80 win range.... i mean that's probably the most competitive division in the last 20 years.

IF, too big for me. I still think call Cincy and Pitt wins when you look at schedules. Not Baltimore bad but still not 500 good that I can see.

Can't wait though...we are a month out.

 

[fatbeard]

ANd I think people are thinking guys like Cain and Yelich are flashes in the pan, that others can't improve and that missing an Ace is near meaningless.

Yelich hit .367 in the second half last year. His career HR/FB% is 20.3%. In the second half of last year, it was 48.1%. Those are not sustainable numbers. He is a good player, but he is not a perennial MVP-caliber player and he is bound to regress next year.

As for Cain, he had a near-career year at 5.7 fWAR and his heading into his age 33 season. I'll take the under on him, too.

 

[beckdawg]

IF, too big for me. I still think call Cincy and Pitt wins when you look at schedules. Not Baltimore bad but still not 500 good that I can see.

Can't wait though...we are a month out.

Well I mean PIT was a .500 team last year and I can't see how they are worse. I think you can make the case that cincy isn't that good yet but you're sort of having to decide dhow much you buy Puig, Kemp, Wood and Gray making improvements. The 14 win swing fangraphs has them on seems a tad rich for me but if Gray is the guy he was in oakland and the others do what you expect from them it wouldn't be that crazy. It's also worth noting they have the prospects to make a run at someone bigger as well and given Vottos age and their seeming willingness to win now it wouldn't shock me to see them push more chips in. There's been rumors of a 3 team deal between them SD and CLE where they would end up with Kluber.

 

[beckdawg]

This is pretty interesting when you look at it like this. Cubs might not have done a ton at the MLB level but they have set themselves up depth wise quite well.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs sign reliever Brad Brach
1 yr 3 mil

His wife will be replacing Zobrist wife singing before games

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/TonyAndracki23/status/1088503920790507520?s=19

 

[chibears55]

Dodgers sign AJ Pollack 4/55

If they had any interest in Harper, they dont now

 

[CSF77]

This is pretty interesting when you look at it like this. Cubs might not have done a ton at the MLB level but they have set themselves up depth wise quite well.

I only care about the starters. But he should be close. I see Steele in the rotation with Clifton. The fact that they protected Steele and left Clifton shows their thought process.

Tseng is an engima still. He clearly sucked and they chose to protect again. Stuff wise he has volume but lacks talent.

 

[CSF77]

Dodgers sign AJ Pollack 4/55

If they had any interest in Harper, they dont now

They needed a RH bat more. Simple as that.

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/TonyAndracki23/status/1088503920790507520?s=19

Brach is not a bad pick up at 3M. I see him filling Strops role while Strop is closing.

So closing I am seeing Brach, Clishek and Strop 7-9 now. Edwards in high leverage and Kintzler in low pressure. Lefties should remain que. What happens happens when Morrow returns. By then things tend to work them selves out.

 

[chibears55]

What teams are legitimately left for Harper?

Nationals and Phillies???

I said back in October if not the Cubs, I can see the Angels getting him