CSF77
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chibears55
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A couple weeks til ST starts and Harper and Machado not even close to signing with anyone..
Said during the season, I just dont see any teams wanting to go 10+ years for 35+ per that these guys want
My guess was 8 yrs top with options
Said during the season, I just dont see any teams wanting to go 10+ years for 35+ per that these guys want
My guess was 8 yrs top with options
chibears55
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CSF77
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I wouldn't say that. Guy is small market. It happens. All it does is make it harder to bottom feed in division.
CSF77
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Tough call honestly. If I had to say right now, there is at least 1 team out there that will pay up for Machado. My guess it is the Mets. With their new GM it changes their dynamic and that is a team that I can see making a real offer. Cotts has them at 176 so a 30 mil off puts them at tax. I don't see them valuing Amed Rosario that much and Cano could just move to 1B if this gets complicated anyways. I don't see the sox going near 300M myself.
Harper IMO will default to Phi. I just don't see another team willing to pay him on par as them outside of the Nats who would have to counter the Mets.
So IMO the Mets sign Manny first which puts Phi and Nats into a bid war. That is how it goes down IMO.
Castor76
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I could see either or both guys going the same route as Donaldson and signing one year deals and taking their chances next year in the hopes that teams free up money or get more desperate.
chibears55
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That would work well for the cubs
beckdawg
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That really doesn't make much sense if you ask me. The reason Donaldson took a 1 year deal is because he was hurt and didn't perform in a signing year. Unless you're assuming harper has the year he had in 2015 next year there's really not point. If you exclude that year he's played roughly 5.5 seasons worth of PAs and put up 21.4 fWAR or roughly 3.9 fWAR per season. In 2018 he put up 3.5 fWAR which is on the lower end of expectations but it's not like it was a disastrous year for him. It's more or less what you'd expect. It's far more likely that he would get hurt than improve based on that again unless you assume he's that 2015 player which I think is difficult to defend. He'd be far better off with a contract like Heyward's or Darvish where he can opt out after a year or two but he still has the back end protection.
As for Machado, his 6.2 fWAR was his third best season behind the 6.3 in 2016, and the 6.6 in 2015 and to be honest he's bat was better in 2018 posting a 141 wRC+ in 2018 to the 135/131 in 15/16. He only really got dinged because he was pretty shitty at SS to start the year though he was better once he was traded over to LA. Realistically he's not going to get a better offer than now. NY specifically chose not to sign him by picking up Tulo/LeMahieu and various bullpen arms. They apparently think those several players are worth more than him individually. LA could sign him now. Nothing is really stopping him save for the fact they don't really need him. Maybe the cubs in a different year are interested but there's been like 0 rumors of them actually being in on him. Boston already has a young 3B/SS combo making far less. Suffice to say I don't really see any team out there that's going to fall over themselves to sign him because they could do that now.
And as with Harper even if there were a team like that out there players are going to just be better with an early opt out.
Castor76
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The reason I say it simply that they will bet on themselves having big years and hope more teams have payroll open up and want them. At his point, neither has gotten an off they want. Maybe they never will because those days are gone. If Donaldson got 1 year and 23M either of them could get 25 or 26M.
beckdawg
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Oh I get what you're saying but I just don't think there's a "big year" out there. I mean Machado hit 37 HRs and had a .297 average to go with the highest walk rate of his career. If you want to argue there's a little bit more skill there to unlock ok but to get substantially more like you are talking you'd have to have him go from being something like a 140 wRC+ guy to 160+. Additionally, you could argue that maybe he plays lights out at SS for some team next year and that adds some value but idk like... people know he was a gold glove 3B. Unless he's literally a gold glove SS next year I don't see his value improving. So, could he be better in some ways next year? Sure, but there's no way it's worth risking getting hurt. He could lose half a season and it will tank his value worse. And that's not even really talking about the potential for him to have a career ending injury however unlikely that may be.
I think your argument with regard to Harper is slightly more compelling.... but still not really. I just don't believe there's another 2015 season in him. I mean he hit .330 with a 19.0% walk rate and a .369 ISO. Those are basically Barry Bonds when he was on steroids numbers. Bonds is potentially the most gifted hitter ever and he never prior to 1999 had an ISO over .341 and only once had an average over .312(.336 in 93). Bonds did post rather regularly some pretty bonkers walk rates so that doesn't surprise me to see Harper continuing but combining all of those things.... i mean it just doesn't happen much. Even Mike Trout doesn't do it. His career best iso is .323. His career best average is .326.
So, if we can agree it's incredibly unlikely that 2015 season is out, then what's a realistic best case scenario? I'd argue something along the lines of his 2017 season(155 wRC+). One could argue his 13.8% walk rate that season was really low given the other seasons he's had. And while I agree with that, I think just saying that's a reason that there is more there than 2017 is wrong. If you remember, Maddon started pitching him like Bonds and it broke him. I personally believe that having a high walk rate is a very fine line because while it means you're patient... it also means you are going to miss pitches to hit. To an extent, I think that's Schwarber's problem. He'll work a count great but when you get to 2 strikes it's hard for any player to hit. So, you'll often see more walks lead to more K's. And in Harper's case, he sorta had both k rate and bb rate good in 2016.... but his BABIP was .264 which lead to a really disappointing year. There's a lot that could be but I believe it's a case of him putting weaker contact into play because of deeper counts.
As for what that's worth, I mean Mike Trout is making roughly $34 mil the next two years. Harper isn't Trout. It's not even close. Trout is a career 172 wRC+ to Harper's 140. Trout plays CF and Harper some what poorly plays RF(may need to move to LF sooner or later). Cespedes is a some what similar player. He's making $29/$29.5 mil the next two years. Stanton is also a similar player though I think he's a better defender. He's owed $260 mil over the next 9 season but if he doesn't opt out in 2020 Miami is paying $30 mil of that. So, that's like $25.5 mil a season as a similar real world value for a guy on the open market. realistically speaking, I just don't see much more than $30 mil a year out there.
So, if we're being realistic here, my view is that Harper can probably get more than $25 mil a season pretty easily. I'd even say $27 mil/season is likely. I'm not sure he realistically gets more than $29 mil/season though. Like Cespedes' deal works because it's short term. He signed at 31 for 4 years. If Harper is signing for 8-10 years a team is going to have to factor in years he's going to get hurt and miss time and the potential that he does what Heyward did. Just as an example, the stats types viewed Heyward as a potentially $300 mil type contract based solely on value before he signed. Heyward actually got 62% of that and some people think that contract is still a giant albatross. If you think Harper is a 5 win player like he was in 2017, that's some where between $40 and $45 mil value but if you discount that 62% you're looking at $24.8-$27.9 mil. And all of this assumes that the market hasn't changed(it looks like it has). $200 mil players last year had trouble getting $200 mil. That hasn't changed this year. I doubt it changes next either.
That's why all along I have told people they are crazy talking about $400 mil contract let alone $350+. if I'm Boras, what I'm trying to get for Harper is a deal such that the first 2 years pay him maybe $35 mil a season with an opt out after 2. That way he can effectively say Harper is the highest paid hitter in baseball though it's kind of fudging with the numbers. For a team to do that, they are going to want to get his AAV down a lot. For the sake of argument let's go the top in $28 mil. You could realistically do something like the first two years at $35 mil + an opt out, then the next 4 at $24.5 mil a pop for a total of 6/$168. My guess is Boras would probably want that number to be a 2 so you'd likely need to add 2 more years or 8/$224. That's quite a bit bigger than Heyward. It's a higher AAV than stanton's 13/$325. It's slightly less AAV than Cespedes but if he's good he's going to opt out after 2 years anyways and he has the long term certainty if not.
That's how I see this playing out and honestly I don't think that is really going to change much next year.
chibears55
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CSF77
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Cubs have 800K left in pool. Doubt that is enough.
anotheridiot
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Amazing how a basketball player, with half of the regular season games and most likely playing 70 of them with now normal rest like Chris Paul (if he even does play) ends up with a 40 million dollar salary. If anything, I think that is what Boreass looks at. NFL quarterbacks make 30 million just because they are supposed to. Those are two careers who are pretty much over at 32, maybe 35, when baseball players just start slowing down.
There is a very simple bottom line here. Do the cubs want to spend the next decade paying Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contrares and pitchers or not. I cannot see this fickle fan base accepting this same team for a decade. I brought this up years ago, back when they were holding Bryant back and Baez could not get out of the minors. Why are the fans now expecting, Machado, Harper, hell, people want Klueber. This is it unless you want to see those player leave because nobody is going to be able to field 5 guys making 30 million. You gotta believe part of why Theo left Boston was the fans expecting more and more. Guess what, they did get more thru the system. Mookie Betts was drafted in the 5th round. That is what this team needs to focus on again.
Thats what got them to the dance.
tim62565
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Get a real catcher. Contreras can't pitch frame or call a game.
beckdawg
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That's not even comparing similar things. MLB teams roster 40 players. NBA teams roster 13(one inactive). And more to the point, a guy like Lebron has a disproportional effect on the game as compared to an MLB player. Mike Trout is great but he's not single handedly taking LA to the world series every year. As such individual performance in baseball is less valuable.
beckdawg
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Something i was thinking about tonight... I'm hoping Joe is a bit more aggressive with pitchers in spring training this year. As you all probably realize, he's been very passive with them the past couple of seasons with the idea being you lighten their spring work load to keep them healthy for october. Typically I agree with this approach. However, I think this season is different. The division is shaping up to be very competitive this year. As such, you want to get out to a really good start.
Given the early exit from the playoffs, they hopefully can be pushed a bit harder this spring. In 2016 they were 33-15 in april and may. I don't think they have to be *that* good but I'd like to see them start the season winning something like 30 or 31 of their first 50. That would put them on a 97-100 win pace. I'm guessing 95 wins next year probably wins you the central pretty comfortably. Fangraphs currently has it like this
Cubs 87-75
Cards 86-76
Reds 81-81
Pirates 80-82
Brewers 79-83
So if they got off to a 30-20 pace they would be in pretty good position. To win 90 games they'd need to go 60-52(.536). To win 95 they'd need to go 65-47(.580).
Given the early exit from the playoffs, they hopefully can be pushed a bit harder this spring. In 2016 they were 33-15 in april and may. I don't think they have to be *that* good but I'd like to see them start the season winning something like 30 or 31 of their first 50. That would put them on a 97-100 win pace. I'm guessing 95 wins next year probably wins you the central pretty comfortably. Fangraphs currently has it like this
Cubs 87-75
Cards 86-76
Reds 81-81
Pirates 80-82
Brewers 79-83
So if they got off to a 30-20 pace they would be in pretty good position. To win 90 games they'd need to go 60-52(.536). To win 95 they'd need to go 65-47(.580).
CSF77
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The rotation is going to have to put up heavier innings than the past to over come the balky pen.
So the starters are going to need to focus on pitching to contact to get easy outs. Out of the 5 Q gives me fits right now. Fly ball rate and HR rate went up and his success rate went down. That has to change.
So the starters are going to need to focus on pitching to contact to get easy outs. Out of the 5 Q gives me fits right now. Fly ball rate and HR rate went up and his success rate went down. That has to change.
brett05
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beckdawg
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I agree that's fairly low but you have to understand why. They break their WAR down as such
Grandal - 3.1
Aguilar - 1.3
Hernan Perez - 0.3
Orlando Arcia - 1.1
Travish Shaw - 2.6
Braun - 1.8
Yelich - 4.8
Cain - 3.8
Chacin - 1.2
Davies - 1.1
Anderson - 0.8
Woodruff - 1.2
Nelson - 1.6
Bench bats - 2.9
Bullpen - 6.2
The biggest thing there is it's not buying Aguilar's 2018 as he was a 3.1 win player and clearly had a career year. Perez seems perfectly reasonable because he's not that good. Arcia was terrible last year(-0.4). He did put up 1.4 the year prior so seems reasonable. Shaw was a 3.6 last year but typically these projections are conservative so while 2.6 might be a bit lower than I'd say it's not that far off. Braun was 1.3 fWAR last year so again reasonable. Yelich and Cain both had career years last year. Putting them at nearly 5/4 wins respectively seems fair.
Their starters are always going to be their weakness. So, I think that's fair. Their bullpen is given a pretty decent projection at 6.2. I'd probably put them closer to 85 wins but I think they are going to fall back pretty hard. They had like 5-6 guys who had career years one of which ended up being the best hitter in the NL when he's never been anywhere near that level of a hitter.