Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[JimJohnson]

They didn't go all in. They had an offer on the table from NY for Schwarber, who was injured at the time, for two years of Andrew Miller. They rejected it and went with Torres for a half season of Chapman, because they thought Schwarber was an integral part of their future. Epstein is never going to sacrifice long-term competitiveness to "go for it" in a single year. And that's a stupid idea in baseball anyway because of playoff variance and how long it can take to reload (unlike the NFL where parity is built into the competitive balance).

Epstein went all in when he traded Torres, and when he traded Cease and Eloy. You don't count that as sacrificing the future?

 

[JimJohnson]

You're sort of missing my point with regard to Lester/Hendricks. It's fine to say knowing the results that they wont duplicate those results but that's sort of a disingenuous point because you already know the results in one case and we're speculating on the potential results in the other. The point I would make is going into 2016 before we knew the results what would be your feelings for Lester/Hendricks vs going into 2019? 2015 Lester had a 3.34 ERA. 2018 Lester had a 3.32 ERA. His k/bb rates were better in 2015 which is why I said he's better going into 2016 but again I'm not sure there's that much difference. In terms of Hendricks, he had a 3.95 ERA in 2015 and a 3.44 ERA in 2018. In my eyes, I think you could say whatever you've lost from Lester from 2016 you likely gained in Hendricks as he enters his prime. As I said before, I would be surprised if statistically they were the same in 2019 as they were in 2016. But that has less to do with them as pitchers and more to do with the fact the 2016 cubs defense if I'm not mistaken was one of the best statistically ever or at the very least since they started tracking defensive metrics.

As for Darvish, like I said before I'm not going to debate health. He either will be or he wont. It's not really an interesting point to debate. However, I will debate taking Davirsh. Again stipulating that Darvish pitches like his career numbers I'd rather have him than Arrieta. Here's why... when you're evaluating pitchers from a statistics stand point you're largely concerned with 2 things, namely k rate and walk rate. The reason for this is balls in play is usually .300 over a long enough time span for most hitters/pitchers. So, that means the things a pitcher can control is how many guys he strikes out and how many guys he walks. HR/FB also matters as HR's disproportionally effect ERA. Anyways, Darvish's 11.04 career K/9 isn't just good, the only starter since he debuted in 2012 with a higher k/9 is Max Scherzer at 11.10. So, his stuff is elite of elite. If we were talking about 2015 Arrieta I think there's more of debate to be had here because his 9.28/1.89 k/bb per 9 rate is better than his 2016 8.67/3.47. In particular, the 1.89 walk rate in 2015 really set him apart. However, his 2016 walk rate nearly doubled. And that largely is why I'd rather have career darvish vs 2016 Arrieta. He strikes out more people with that 11.04 k/9 and he walks fewer people with that 3.38 bb/9.

Honestly, I kind of find it ironic that your concern is the top of the rotation and yet you dislike Darvish so much because there's maybe 1-2 guys in baseball that can match his stuff. And as for him being a mental midget... I'd assume you'd be good with having Chris Sale in the playoff yeah? In 25.0 IP Sale's post season ERA is 5.76. How about Kershaw? 152.0 IP 4.32 ERA. So the fact Darvish has a 5.81 ERA in 25.1 IP doesn't mean much. He's just given up too many HRs in a really short sample. I mean you're talking about a WHIP of 1.18 in the post season having given up 27 hits. The issue is 8 of the hits have been HRs. I'm sure you'll see that as a giant negative but to me that just appears to be a bad selection of data. I think if he gets 20-30 more postseason starts you'd see it level out closer to his career HR/FB rate though slightly elevated given better competition. His career HR/FB is 12.3% in the regular season. It's 25% thus far in his postseasons. That's about as obvious a case as you get for regression to the mean.

Regardless, if Darvish isn't giving up HRs he can win a pitching duel against literally anyone in baseball. And it's not like he's never thrown a good game in the postseason. 3 of his 6 starts(2012 vs BAL, 2017 vs ARI, 2017 vs cubs) he's thrown 18 IP giving up 13 hits 4 ER 1 BB 21 K's for a 2 ERA with a 10.5 k/9 and a 0.5 bb/9. 2 of his other 3 starts were vs Houston and while he was fairly terrible in those games as I said before I suspect houston was effectively cheating in those games. They said he was tipping his pitches but I honestly think they may have been using the same guy that got caught filming boston's dugout because in those two starts he threw 3.1 IP giving up 9 hits, 2 walks 0 k's and 8 ERs. Seeing someone with his lofty K numbers not even manage to strike them out once strikes me as very odd. Even in his 6th start vs TOR in 2016 where he was mediocre he threw 5 innings with 4 k's.

And as I said before, it's not like Darvish has lost the stuff that makes him interesting. His 11.03 2018 k/9 is basically identical to his career rate. His 4.73 bb/9 rate in 2018 however obviously was way elevated. However, if he were pitching through pain it could have easily thrown his mechanics out of wack. And given his comments about not wanting to disappoint fans, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was trying to pitch through pain. Presumably he is now healthy after having the procedure that ended his 2018. If his command returns with his health he's going to be one of the best pitchers in the NL.

As I said before with Darvish, I'll believe it when I see it. I sincerely doubt he ever returns to his former self.

But taking him (as we know him presently, NOT 2016 Darvish) over 2016 Jake is absolutely insane.

 

[anotheridiot]

What does one have to do with the other?

How many black lives matter protests do you want around the park? Move the black guy for a white guy for a quarter billion dollar contract?

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

How many black lives matter protests do you want around the park? Move the black guy for a white guy for a quarter billion dollar contract?

This is ridiculously stupid.

 

[beckdawg]

As I said before with Darvish, I'll believe it when I see it. I sincerely doubt he ever returns to his former self.

But taking him (as we know him presently, NOT 2016 Darvish) over 2016 Jake is absolutely insane.

I am not sure why you are so convinced he wont return to his former self. Pitchers typically don't fail because they lose command. There's cases of it like Ankiel and what not but typically when pitchers fail it's because their stuff backs up. And as I illustrated before, he still had fantastic stuff in 2018. Losing command is typically either a player pitching awkwardly because of pain or something else causing them to lose their mechanics. In other words, a guy like Darvish is throwing good pitches but his issue is he's having problems consistently repeating it. For what it's worth he also tried to implement that whole Kershaw pause timing thing into his delivery last year as well so it could also be that screwing up his mechanics.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs signed another driveline guy. Makes me wonder if some of their new development ideas are incorporating the concepts driveline has been using.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs signed another driveline guy. Makes me wonder if some of their new development ideas are incorporating the concepts driveline has been using.

Seems hot topic right now and teams are seeing if it translates.

 

[JimJohnson]

I am not sure why you are so convinced he wont return to his former self. Pitchers typically don't fail because they lose command. There's cases of it like Ankiel and what not but typically when pitchers fail it's because their stuff backs up. And as I illustrated before, he still had fantastic stuff in 2018. Losing command is typically either a player pitching awkwardly because of pain or something else causing them to lose their mechanics. In other words, a guy like Darvish is throwing good pitches but his issue is he's having problems consistently repeating it. For what it's worth he also tried to implement that whole Kershaw pause timing thing into his delivery last year as well so it could also be that screwing up his mechanics.

I'm pretty confident he won't. But this season will give us all the proof we need. But I can promise, if he does suck again, I won't be afraid to say "told ya so."

 

[beckdawg]

I'm pretty confident he won't. But this season will give us all the proof we need. But I can promise, if he does suck again, I won't be afraid to say "told ya so."

That's a pretty hollow statement. People love to throw out predictions like this but never come back and admit they were wrong. As such it's really no risk because you can throw out 100's of predictions and when one hits you get to be "right." And honestly, I don't even get the mentality even if you turn out to be right because you're effectively rooting for the cubs to be worse than they otherwise would be if he is good just so you can say "told you so."

I have no issue with people being skeptical but you clearly are a step beyond that. I just don't get why you are putting so much weight into 8 starts where he clearly had an injury over the other 131 starts in his career and assuming those 8 starts are all he can be now. I mean logically that just doesn't make much sense. It'd be like looking at Rizzo's 2018 April(.149/.259/.189) and assuming that's all he can be going forward when he went on to hit .300/.390/.508 the rest of the season. Hell, Lester's first 8 starts weren't particularly amazing with the cubs either(3.70 ERA) but clearly that turned out alright.

For me personally, I'm really not worried about his performance at all. If he's healthy I think you're going to get the guy he's been all his career. And while I'm not overly worried about him being healthy, my only real concerns are that he wont be healthy.

 

[JimJohnson]

Not much point in really continuing to discuss it. Only time will tell us what is up. But if he does suck again, or gets hurt again, or whatever, I sure as hell don't want to see any more apologists for him. That shit is getting old.

By the way, I'm not rooting against him or against the Cubs, obviously. I just don't think he's going to do well in 2019, I think his contract will likely go down as a bust.

If I'm wrong, and Darvish destroys the league like you seem to think he's going to do, then that means we will have an awesome Top 3 headed into the playoffs, so I'll be pretty thrilled about that.

 

[TL1961]

Well, this billionaire inbox crap comes out about Joe Ricketts, I guess the chances of flipping Heywards deal for the ability to sign Harper just lost any minute percentage that this will happen.

Why?

 

[TL1961]

Not much point in really continuing to discuss it. Only time will tell us what is up. But if he does suck again, or gets hurt again, or whatever, I sure as hell don't want to see any more apologists for him. That shit is getting old.

By the way, I'm not rooting against him or against the Cubs, obviously. I just don't think he's going to do well in 2019, I think his contract will likely go down as a bust.

If I'm wrong, and Darvish destroys the league like you seem to think he's going to do, then that means we will have an awesome Top 3 headed into the playoffs, so I'll be pretty thrilled about that.

Well, Darvish WAS clearly hurt last year, and it is the only year as a Cub.

So to act like there have been apologists forever is a little unfair, isn't it?

I mean, saying there are "apologists" implies people were making up excuses for him, when that is clearly not the case, since the injury was real. And it was ONCE. One year, one injury.

So, if he gets hurt again, you don't want to hear it?

 

[JimJohnson]

Well, Darvish WAS clearly hurt last year, and it is the only year as a Cub.

So to act like there have been apologists forever is a little unfair, isn't it?

I mean, saying there are "apologists" implies people were making up excuses for him, when that is clearly not the case, since the injury was real. And it was ONCE. One year, one injury.

So, if he gets hurt again, you don't want to hear it?

If he gets hurt again, he's a pussy and would be a bust of a signing. If you want to say it's not his fault, fine. Just don't come to me with shit about not counting him out for 2020. That would be pathetic as all fuck.

 

[anotheridiot]

Why?

apparently nobody sees that there are more black muslims than caucasian muslims and the cubs are trying to keep it that way.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

apparently nobody sees that there are more black muslims than caucasian muslims and the cubs are trying to keep it that way.

Your username is very fitting.

 

[CSF77]

If he gets hurt again, he's a pussy and would be a bust of a signing. If you want to say it's not his fault, fine. Just don't come to me with shit about not counting him out for 2020. That would be pathetic as all fuck.

He is not Prior. He has come in with a history of success. And injury is common with pitching so don't try to pull the he is. Puss mental midget crap. Add to it the Cubs invested 126 M in to him and they are not going to pull a Dusty. I see it as buying a Porsche, strapping a dummy in and running it into a brick wall for kicks.

 

[CSF77]

If he gets hurt again, he's a pussy and would be a bust of a signing. If you want to say it's not his fault, fine. Just don't come to me with shit about not counting him out for 2020. That would be pathetic as all fuck.

Shocked there wasn't outrage like this towards Wood. Dude was injured in his teniour as a Cub. What a bum. Best Cub was a bag of injury and yep fans loved him.

Almost want to play the race card/white privilege with this honestly.

 

[anotheridiot]

Your username is very fitting.

thats the company line, bury it under the rug.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Woof -- finally managing a tiny slice of time for my interests, beyond just what's needed from me. Sorry for the extended absence, here. Had several, more severe medical issues, and my mother had even worse. Had to spend a period of time staying with her in Illinois, and I'm still not certain my job can be recaptured, since I had to abandon it for longer than they would normally allow.

So, not fun times. Interesting, in the sense of the old Chinese proverb.

Enough about me. Here is what is bugging me, forcing me to head back out here and discuss it:

We sign Tony Barnette and the deal is finalized in two days. "Sources" reported we "came to an agreement" with Brad Brach, pending a physical, on January 24th, a whole 13 days ago. We're a week away from him supposedly reporting to camp. And he has notably *not* been signed.

Has Brach failed his physical???

Also, is this impacting what the Cubs want to do with their 40-man roster, which is why they appear determined to be the last team to announce the non-roster invitees to camp?

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

Has Brach failed his physical???

Also, is this impacting what the Cubs want to do with their 40-man roster, which is why they appear determined to be the last team to announce the non-roster invitees to camp?

-Doug

His signing was when all the bad weather happened. So it's entirely plausible that set back some of the process given I believe they typically want to do that in chicago. I wouldn't worry too much about it. If memory serves, they are still at 39 on the 40 man roster which would indicate they still have a slot lined up for him. They had to outright Clakin to AAA off the 40 man to sign Barnette.

As for non-roster invites, they really have nothing to do with the 40 man because they are "non-rostered." I mean I suppose you could argue that they have a hard limit on players with the big league side of camp vs the minor league portion but that doesn't seem like a huge issue. It could also be the fact that the cubs just recently did instructional league stuff. In the past that was done in the fall after the season but they switched it up this year to be right before ST. It's possible some of the guys who may be invited as prospects were still being evaluated.