Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

Corbin to the nats 6/$140 mil.... would seem they are likely out on Harper then...

Ya Yanks wouldn’t go over 5

 

[chibears55]

Corbin to the nats 6/$140 mil.... would seem they are likely out on Harper then...

Nats gonna have a helluva rotation but not sure what kind of offense theyll have..

Lotta low scoring games

 

[CSF77]

This is what I’m thinking on Harper. 15 year 375 M with a 25M bonus paid after the deal ends inn a lump.

Takes him to 41. Pays as 25 AAV. I would think to pay 15M year 1 then pay 35M year 2 to balance it. Cole coming off the books creates the gap needed. But it works under cap for now and there is contract shedding from Zo etc.

Im pretty sure that the Cubs are his preferred destination. Boras has shown that he can work out a pay structure that benefits both sides

On the why? Harper is the most feared hitter in baseball. Think he saw the 3rdfewest strikes last year while leading baseball in walks. Teams are flat scared of him.

IDK. At this point they might as well say f-it. Boston proved that you have to scrap pay roll restrictions to win it. With the Yankee’s imposing limits it is time to take advantage of the market.

 

[brett05]

This is what I’m thinking on Harper. 15 year 375 M with a 25M bonus paid after the deal ends inn a lump.

Takes him to 41. Pays as 25 AAV. I would think to pay 15M year 1 then pay 35M year 2 to balance it. Cole coming off the books creates the gap needed. But it works under cap for now and there is contract shedding from Zo etc.

Im pretty sure that the Cubs are his preferred destination. Boras has shown that he can work out a pay structure that benefits both sides

Not a chance you get him at that AVV

 

[CSF77]

Not a chance you get him at that AVV

He wants 400M. What he wants is the years. Most teams will never go 15

 

[CSF77]

Anyways that is why you have Boras structure it. What he did with the Nats proves that he cares more about the pie vs the slice.

 

[brett05]

He wants 400M. What he wants is the years. Most teams will never go 15

You think he'd balk at same money less years? Come on.

 

[chibears55]

He wants 400M. What he wants is the years. Most teams will never go 15

Doubt he wants years.

He 26, I'm sure he gonna want 1 more crack at Free Agency to go after more crazy numbers..

Also

I really doubt any team will offer double digit years anymore with crazy money because of the tax and having to pay a guy plus money during his decline years

I know Boris is putting 400 mil on the map but it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up with between 300 and 350 and under 10 years with options after 4

 

[anotheridiot]

Makes you wonder, was there ever a player that got the biggest longest contract in history and ended staying with the same team that signed them?

 

[brett05]

Makes you wonder, was there ever a player that got the biggest longest contract in history and ended staying with the same team that signed them?

https://sabr.org/research/baseball-s-major-salary-milestones

That link shows the milestone numbers. Some of those players remained thru the contract.

 

[Castor76]

Which is why I still think he signs a 14/400M deal, probably with opt outs after years 3 and 4. How it's structured would be interesting because the more money left on the back end lessens the likeliness of an opt out. Even if there's 100M in the first 4 that leaves 300M over the 10 years remaining.

I'd get kind of crazy with it by paying large sums in years 5-8, like 55/50/50/45, just to cut down on what the remaining years will have to pay out. That would take his last 6 seasons down to 20M per. I might even give him an opt out after year 8 as well. The AAV would be 28.5+M. Richest deal for a hitter in all 3 ways, average, length, and total dollars. There's enough cash incentive that he would would necessarily jump to opt out the first two chances and if he did opt out after year 8, it would take a lot off the Cubs' books.

 

[CSF77]

I was more thinking:

19: 15M
20: 35M
21: 35M
22: 35M
23:35M

Next 5 years at 25M

Last 5 years scaling down so his reduced production is more in line with his current AAV

then a severance payment.

 

[CSF77]

2019: 224,957,143 payroll. 15M moves it up to 239,957,143. Under tax.
2020: they are at 99M currently. But they have Hamels, Zobrist, Kintzler, Duesing and Strop off the books. 48.75M which 35M goes to Harper. 13.75M covers pay increases.
2021: Lester is on a opt. Rizzo off the books. They have to decide on resigning Hendricks then.
2022: Bryant up for F/A

So getting Harper on board helps retain Bryant. With Rizzo going F/A 2021 it pushes them to move Bryant to 1B or resign Rizzo.

Over all it is pretty doable. especially if they can trade Heyward. But even so I don't think it prevents retention.

 

[Castor76]

2019: 224,957,143 payroll. 15M moves it up to 239,957,143. Under tax.
2020: they are at 99M currently. But they have Hamels, Zobrist, Kintzler, Duesing and Strop off the books. 48.75M which 35M goes to Harper. 13.75M covers pay increases.
2021: Lester is on a opt. Rizzo off the books. They have to decide on resigning Hendricks then.
2022: Bryant up for F/A

So getting Harper on board helps retain Bryant. With Rizzo going F/A 2021 it pushes them to move Bryant to 1B or resign Rizzo.

Over all it is pretty doable. especially if they can trade Heyward. But even so I don't think it prevents retention.

I'm of the understanding it was the AAV that counts towards the yearly total. Am iI misunderstanding that?

 

[Castor76]

2019: 224,957,143 payroll. 15M moves it up to 239,957,143. Under tax.
2020: they are at 99M currently. But they have Hamels, Zobrist, Kintzler, Duesing and Strop off the books. 48.75M which 35M goes to Harper. 13.75M covers pay increases.
2021: Lester is on a opt. Rizzo off the books. They have to decide on resigning Hendricks then.
2022: Bryant up for F/A

So getting Harper on board helps retain Bryant. With Rizzo going F/A 2021 it pushes them to move Bryant to 1B or resign Rizzo.

Over all it is pretty doable. especially if they can trade Heyward. But even so I don't think it prevents retention.

And they can find a landing spot for Heyward. It's just going to come down to how much the Cubs will have to eat. I hope he can have a good year and drive that down to about 5M per year remaining.

 

[beckdawg]

I'll say it now as I've said it for awhile. Harper gets less than people think. In fact, I'd argue he wont even surpass the deal stanton got in total value though obviously as I've said before stanton's deal was wonky to avoid loria paying him and putting it all on the new ownership. I see no way he approaches 400 mil. IMO he's lucky if he gets $300 mil. Teams are getting far smarter about how they spend their money. There's very little conceivable way that Harper earns that contract in terms of performance. I mean just look at the deal JD Martinez got last year. That was 5/$110. He was 29 coming off a 3.8 fWAR season. Harper is 25 coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. Maybe you're more comfortable going to 10 years or w/e with a 26 year old but if Martinez couldn't get $200 mil then why is Harper going to get $400 ml?

IMO you're looking at $25-28 mil a season over 8-10 years.

 

[chibears55]

Which is why I still think he signs a 14/400M deal, probably with opt outs after years 3 and 4. How it's structured would be interesting because the more money left on the back end lessens the likeliness of an opt out. Even if there's 100M in the first 4 that leaves 300M over the 10 years remaining.

I'd get kind of crazy with it by paying large sums in years 5-8, like 55/50/50/45, just to cut down on what the remaining years will have to pay out. That would take his last 6 seasons down to 20M per. I might even give him an opt out after year 8 as well. The AAV would be 28.5+M. Richest deal for a hitter in all 3 ways, average, length, and total dollars. There's enough cash incentive that he would would necessarily jump to opt out the first two chances and if he did opt out after year 8, it would take a lot off the Cubs' books.

Why would you sign a 14 yr deal but want opt out after 4?????

Also, no team would agree to that because the biggest reason a player who choose to not opt out would be because they started to suck or got injured and then the team is stuck for another 10 yrs paying him

 

[chibears55]

I'll say it now as I've said it for awhile. Harper gets less than people think. In fact, I'd argue he wont even surpass the deal stanton got in total value though obviously as I've said before stanton's deal was wonky to avoid loria paying him and putting it all on the new ownership. I see no way he approaches 400 mil. IMO he's lucky if he gets $300 mil. Teams are getting far smarter about how they spend their money. There's very little conceivable way that Harper earns that contract in terms of performance. I mean just look at the deal JD Martinez got last year. That was 5/$110. He was 29 coming off a 3.8 fWAR season. Harper is 25 coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. Maybe you're more comfortable going to 10 years or w/e with a 26 year old but if Martinez couldn't get $200 mil then why is Harper going to get $400 ml?

IMO you're looking at $25-28 mil a season over 8-10 years.

I've been saying that since day 1..

 

[Castor76]

Why would you sign a 14 yr deal but want opt out after 4?????

Also, no team would agree to that because the biggest reason a player who choose to not opt out would be because they started to suck or got injured and then the team is stuck for another 10 yrs paying him

He and Boras will want it because it'll be a record. The reason for the opt out after year 4 would be because Harper would only be 29 then and would still be able to sign one more mega contract. It's going to be a negotiating ploy. He's going to get one.

 

[chibears55]

He and Boras will want it because it'll be a record. The reason for the opt out after year 4 would be because Harper would only be 29 then and would still be able to sign one more mega contract. It's going to be a negotiating ploy. He's going to get one.

They may want it, noone giving it to them unless there team options ..

So, doubt it happens