Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

How do you see they will get to the top side of the tax limit when they dont even want to get out of the basement onto the floor?

They need to move Heyward just to pay the guys that are left here.

You're missing the point I think. The point in cost saving moves now is to allow them the room to do stuff of some impact later. This belief that the cubs are going to suddenly stop spending to me is absurd. I mean sure as of this moment they are sitting tight..... for 2019. Next year $20 mil for Hamels, $12.5 mil for Zobrist, $3.5 mil for Duensing, $5 mil for Kintzler, $6.5 mil for Cishek and $6.25 mil for Strop is all off the books. With the exception of Strop/Cischek and sorta Zobrist that's not really a big loss. Hamels is their 5th starter which presumably will be Alzolay in 2020. Zobrist is a nice have but they have a bunch of 2B's to plug in and presumably if you were to sign someone like Machado that would also replace him.

Regardless, you're talking about that's ~$54 mil coming off their books just next year. So what we're really talking about is them getting through 2019. Sure you'll also have arb. raises to factor in but they have A LOT more flexibility after this season and that's before you talk about finding some way to get rid of Chatwood. It is also possible though I don't think it's likely that Darvish opts out after 2019. But even if he doesn't he's reasonable at $22 mil in 2020/21, $19 mil in 2022, and $18 mil in 2021.

 

[anotheridiot]

You're missing the point I think. The point in cost saving moves now is to allow them the room to do stuff of some impact later. This belief that the cubs are going to suddenly stop spending to me is absurd. I mean sure as of this moment they are sitting tight..... for 2019. Next year $20 mil for Hamels, $12.5 mil for Zobrist, $3.5 mil for Duensing, $5 mil for Kintzler, $6.5 mil for Cishek and $6.25 mil for Strop is all off the books. With the exception of Strop/Cischek and sorta Zobrist that's not really a big loss. Hamels is their 5th starter which presumably will be Alzolay in 2020. Zobrist is a nice have but they have a bunch of 2B's to plug in and presumably if you were to sign someone like Machado that would also replace him.

Regardless, you're talking about that's ~$54 mil coming off their books just next year. So what we're really talking about is them getting through 2019. Sure you'll also have arb. raises to factor in but they have A LOT more flexibility after this season and that's before you talk about finding some way to get rid of Chatwood. It is also possible though I don't think it's likely that Darvish opts out after 2019. But even if he doesn't he's reasonable at $22 mil in 2020/21, $19 mil in 2022, and $18 mil in 2021.

Right, 54, and do you think they will stop trying to lock up Baez, Bryant and to another point, Rizzo? Rizzo is up to 11 million this year, then 14 the next 2. Just because they are club option does not mean they are going to try to extend him. Are Bryant and Baez going to be worth 30 million when they come up to free agency, then what will Rizzo get? They might be able to get Baez this offseason during the negotiations when he jumps to 7. They might try to get him to go for 6,8,10,12 ballpark where he ends up getting them some money to save long term.

Bottom line, you spend now, whoever comes here may end up making it too much to keep Rizzo, Bryant and Baez.

I am not saying the cubs wont spend this off season, but like last year, there is no reason to stay below the floor if you end up getting into the tax when you make moves in june.

 

[beckdawg]

Right, 54, and do you think they will stop trying to lock up Baez, Bryant and to another point, Rizzo? Rizzo is up to 11 million this year, then 14 the next 2. Just because they are club option does not mean they are going to try to extend him. Are Bryant and Baez going to be worth 30 million when they come up to free agency, then what will Rizzo get? They might be able to get Baez this offseason during the negotiations when he jumps to 7. They might try to get him to go for 6,8,10,12 ballpark where he ends up getting them some money to save long term.

Bottom line, you spend now, whoever comes here may end up making it too much to keep Rizzo, Bryant and Baez.

I am not saying the cubs wont spend this off season, but like last year, there is no reason to stay below the floor if you end up getting into the tax when you make moves in june.

Staying below $246 mil is hardly avoiding spending... As for extensions, the idea there would be when your hitters get expensive you have young pitching coming up to replace Lester and company cheaper. Whether or not that is how it plays out who knows but people sleep on how good the cubs minor league pitching is.

 

[CSF77]

You're missing the point I think. The point in cost saving moves now is to allow them the room to do stuff of some impact later. This belief that the cubs are going to suddenly stop spending to me is absurd. I mean sure as of this moment they are sitting tight..... for 2019. Next year $20 mil for Hamels, $12.5 mil for Zobrist, $3.5 mil for Duensing, $5 mil for Kintzler, $6.5 mil for Cishek and $6.25 mil for Strop is all off the books. With the exception of Strop/Cischek and sorta Zobrist that's not really a big loss. Hamels is their 5th starter which presumably will be Alzolay in 2020. Zobrist is a nice have but they have a bunch of 2B's to plug in and presumably if you were to sign someone like Machado that would also replace him.

Regardless, you're talking about that's ~$54 mil coming off their books just next year. So what we're really talking about is them getting through 2019. Sure you'll also have arb. raises to factor in but they have A LOT more flexibility after this season and that's before you talk about finding some way to get rid of Chatwood. It is also possible though I don't think it's likely that Darvish opts out after 2019. But even if he doesn't he's reasonable at $22 mil in 2020/21, $19 mil in 2022, and $18 mil in 2021.

I would be more on board trying to trade for Wil Meyers. Pads were trying already to Seattle. It makes sense if you move Heyward to CF and take on Meyers at RF. He bumps up to 20 AAV after Hamels is off the books.

Now the Cubs do not have a solid return piece here. Padres lack right handed pitching. They are stacked left in rotation and system. After selling Vil to Japan I believe 3B is a issue. But I doubt that they target a 3B on a return.

I still think that you give them any 3 RH pitchers on the top 30 or 2 and Happ

 

[anotheridiot]

Staying below $246 mil is hardly avoiding spending... As for extensions, the idea there would be when your hitters get expensive you have young pitching coming up to replace Lester and company cheaper. Whether or not that is how it plays out who knows but people sleep on how good the cubs minor league pitching is.

They are not trying to stay below 246, they are trying to stay below 206, the basement.

 

[Castor76]

What's the big deal about the CBT? If I'm understanding it correctly, teams that go over pay a percent tax on the amount they go over it and possible have their first or second draft pick moved back 10 slots. So, if I have this correct, a team at max penalty that's 50 million over would pay a tax of 22.5 million. But if the team is doing what they hope they should do and they can afford it, why care? Is there a real difference between the #26-30 pick versus the #36-40 pick?

It almost seems like it's there to stop owners who have a bad contract already from signing another one.

 

[chibears55]

They are not trying to stay below 246, they are trying to stay below 206, the basement.

Below 206 ????
If their planning on going below 206, they better start trading people away and dont sign anyone else because their already projected at 208..

246 is the magic number now, and they have plenty of room to back load salary after this year with expiring contracts coming up

 

[Castor76]

Below 206 ????
If their planning on going below 206, they better start trading people away and dont sign anyone else because their already projected at 208..

246 is the magic number now, and they have plenty of room to back load salary after this year with expiring contracts coming up

I thought how the contract broke down didn't matter, just AAV. Because if it was how the contracts are broken down, I have a helluva plan.

 

[Castor76]

Below 206 ????
If their planning on going below 206, they better start trading people away and dont sign anyone else because their already projected at 208..

246 is the magic number now, and they have plenty of room to back load salary after this year with expiring contracts coming up

I thought how the contract broke down didn't matter, just AAV. Because if it was how the contracts are broken down, I have a helluva plan.

 

[CSF77]

Below 206 ????
If their planning on going below 206, they better start trading people away and dont sign anyone else because their already projected at 208..

246 is the magic number now, and they have plenty of room to back load salary after this year with expiring contracts coming up

Don’t bother with that. When they signed Cole and flipped Smyly they had no intention staying under tax. They could have gone with Smyly if they gave a shit about keeping under.

Here is the thing. It depends on who vs going over in general.

Cole-worth it
Chavez-not worth it.
Strop-worth it.

And so on. It is what it is right now. So if they want to upgrade more trade is most likely but if it is for a clear upgrade like Harper or Machado then you pretty much toss the book out and say 246M limit and they have to shed to get under.

As of right now I can see them pulling a trade more so than signing a F/A.

 

[JimJohnson]

Phillies still target Manny for 3B

If the cubs are interested in either of the 2 big FA, i have to believe it Harper

I can't wait for the meeting to start to see what Theo plan is for 19

I can only hope. I'd much rather have Harper than Machado.

 

[JimJohnson]

They are not trying to stay below 246, they are trying to stay below 206, the basement.

Staying below 206 will certainly guarantee a loser next season.

 

[chibears55]

Seeing this tweet from Maddon son tells me Maddon not getting an extension and there more going on behind the scenes then we know..

 

[Castor76]

Don’t bother with that. When they signed Cole and flipped Smyly they had no intention staying under tax. They could have gone with Smyly if they gave a shit about keeping under.

Here is the thing. It depends on who vs going over in general.

Cole-worth it
Chavez-not worth it.
Strop-worth it.

And so on. It is what it is right now. So if they want to upgrade more trade is most likely but if it is for a clear upgrade like Harper or Machado then you pretty much toss the book out and say 246M limit and they have to shed to get under.

As of right now I can see them pulling a trade more so than signing a F/A.

And in reality, why should they if the money isn't an issue? If you can actually have a top 5 record and be in title contention for the next 5 seasons, does it make a big difference to pick #35-40?

 

[CSF77]

And in reality, why should they if the money isn't an issue? If you can actually have a top 5 record and be in title contention for the next 5 seasons, does it make a big difference to pick #35-40?

Depends on what you are getting. A extra UI most likely pretty stupid. Chavez pretty stupid. Machado most likely stupid also after the whole big deal on offering him. If they go and sign Manny and then flip Russell. Ass hole move and Boras also rep's Bryant...ya that becomes pretty shitty fast.

So I'll tell you what I think happens.

They target a late inning arm #1. They got snakebit late season there and I doubt will go unprepared. How they go about it? That is the 1M $ question. Trade is ideal honestly. They are down to 36 so they can add but honestly it goes against Theo's agenda. More likely they target a guy that profiles like Morrow and keep the 8-9 fluid vs stable.

Out side of that. Harper is a pipe dream. But if they blow it up he would be the target. You just make Rizzo lead off and Harper becomes the #3 inbetween Bryant and Baez. That is why it is in theory the best solution. But it is very pipe dream.

 

[CSF77]

First up: Brad Boxberger non tendered. I think he profiles. Add to it was a Pad when Jed was running things. Pretty sure they will kick the tires here.

 

[CSF77]

Shelby Miller: Pass

 

[CSF77]

Chris Owings: Depends honestly if they are looking at trading Happ. Very unlikely now.

 

[CSF77]

Dan Jennings: Don't dislike it. Lefty pen arm that is better than most options. Maybe

 

[CSF77]

Jonathan Schoop projected 10.1M. Well if they didn't offer Russell.