Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

Yup, this is the lineup that choked last year and is hardly near the top of the league talentwise.

Well when you lose 5 WAR from Bryant it is hard to make up from that.

1/2 half they led the NL in most O stats. Including OBA and runs scored. That is the effect Bryant carries on the team.

I see it as Bryant is a 6 WAR player, Rizzo and Baez sit 4-5. Zobrist, Schwarber and Contreras 3-4.

After that bit you get into part time talent of 2 WAR or less. Which is Heyward/Almora/Happ etc.

Injury free this team still can hammer out production. I think some get wrapoed up into the 2nd half. And that coincided with Almora’s slump and Bryant’s injury. They limped off of Rizzo, Baez and Zobrist til the dead line.

 

[JimJohnson]

Well when you lose 5 WAR from Bryant it is hard to make up from that.

1/2 half they led the NL in most O stats. Including OBA and runs scored. That is the effect Bryant carries on the team.

I see it as Bryant is a 6 WAR player, Rizzo and Baez sit 4-5. Zobrist, Schwarber and Contreras 3-4.

After that bit you get into part time talent of 2 WAR or less. Which is Heyward/Almora/Happ etc.

Injury free this team still can hammer out production. I think some get wrapoed up into the 2nd half. And that coincided with Almora’s slump and Bryant’s injury. They limped off of Rizzo, Baez and Zobrist til the dead line.

Even if they were healthy, they don't come close to beating the Red Sox. And frankly, I doubt they even beat the Dodgers. So what's the point of even discussing it?

 

[CSF77]

I know..
I was basing it off your post

Ya know I prefer Brantley strait. But Rizzo is the most productive lead off in baseball. Im honestly thinking just build it towards OBA and Rizzo and Bryant are hovering .400 every year. Schwarber just for a power bat. Add to it he posted a .315 wRC+. But Zo works here also if Schwarber is 30%+ So’s Still a 30 HR bat makes more sense here. Baez puts the ball in play and you need OBA to feed the monster. After that you want Zo and Contreras.

Billy would be kinda ideal as a 9 just because he would distract and he might be the best D CF in baseball. Other than that Almora fits this role fine too. He is not a bad base runner either.

 

[CSF77]

Even if they were healthy, they don't come close to beating the Red Sox. And frankly, I doubt they even beat the Dodgers. So what's the point of even discussing it?

Red Sox won’t beat last year’s Red Sox. Not even a good comp.

 

[beckdawg]

Even if they were healthy, they don't come close to beating the Red Sox. And frankly, I doubt they even beat the Dodgers. So what's the point of even discussing it?

The team is better than people remember. I mean look it won 95 games with a hurt darvish and a hurt Bryant who if healthy might realistically have made the team a 100 win team. There's also additional reason to bet on them being better next year. Q's ERA in September of last year was 3.24 and he really started looking more like the guy they traded for. You also have Hamels for a full season if he's anywhere near as good as last year that's a big get. I mean you look at that starting rotation and their #5 starter is probably Q who at his best was a very good #2. The vast majority of the bullpen is back and hopefully Morrow is healthy. The cubs 3.35 bullpen ERA was second only two Houston last year. And while there's some holes to fill in it they have a good starting point.

So just looking at their pitching I would bet on it being better next year and it was pretty good in 2018. In terms of their hitting, Rizzo didn't have a Rizzo year. Bryant didn't have a Bryant year. Contreras had a down year. And Schwarber/Almora showed great signs in the first half but didn't put together a full season. Each of those guys having another year under their belt probably helps their development. Zobrist and Heyward if they can maintain roughly what they did or not drop off too hard in the case of Zobrist should still be fine. Baez I expect to come back down to earth but if you effectively flip his performance with what you expect out of rizzo it's not a big loss.

Boston's hitters produced 29.4 fWAR last year. They got 15.8 from their starters and 4.9 from their relievers. For the cubs that's 27.2 8.9 and 4.0 and I'd add that because they had a DH that ~2 war difference in hitters is a bit misleading. That's not to say the cubs have everything figured out. Obviously there's holes in the bullpen that need filling and they need to figure out why the **** their offense "breaks" at times. But to sit here and say they aren't even in the Red Sox's league is flatly wrong. The one area the cubs were clearly outclassed in 2018 was starting pitching but that didn't include a healthy darvish, only included half a season of Hamels and Q was pretty mediocre until the end of the season.

Long story short, if the cubs pitching is as good as it looks on paper I think I'd still give an edge to boston but it's not like they are a 110 win team and the cubs are an 80 win team. The current roster of the cubs team very realistically could win 100 games.

 

[Castor76]

The realty for the playoffs is just about every series is a coin flip. Does Chris Sale come back from his late season ailments? Is David Price the guy he was his last 3 outings or the the previous 9 in the post season? Do some morons in LA thinks Roberts should be on the hot seat because his team lost the last two Series?

Even if this is Joe's last season in Chicago, there's another Joe manager out there with Cub ties I'd love to see in the fold. And he has a title too.

 

[Castor76]

I was looking at the list a FA for next year and one jumped out at me that maybe the Cubs could trade for, especially if they wanted to try Rizzo in the lead-off spot for the season. Scooter Gennett has some fairly good number from the 3-5 slot the past 3 seasons, .315/.363/.512. He bats Lefty and is going to be pushed out by a prospect soon enough. His D is average to slightly above. Could be interesting.

 

[CSF77]

I was looking at the list a FA for next year and one jumped out at me that maybe the Cubs could trade for, especially if they wanted to try Rizzo in the lead-off spot for the season. Scooter Gennett has some fairly good number from the 3-5 slot the past 3 seasons, .315/.363/.512. He bats Lefty and is going to be pushed out by a prospect soon enough. His D is average to slightly above. Could be interesting.

they let Billy go because of him.

 

[Castor76]

they let Billy go because of him.

That doesn't change that Gennett still probably going to be pushed out and the Reds might want to get something for him.

 

[chibears55]

I was looking at the list a FA for next year and one jumped out at me that maybe the Cubs could trade for, especially if they wanted to try Rizzo in the lead-off spot for the season. Scooter Gennett has some fairly good number from the 3-5 slot the past 3 seasons, .315/.363/.512. He bats Lefty and is going to be pushed out by a prospect soon enough. His D is average to slightly above. Could be interesting.

You mean sign???
You dont trade for FAs
Just sayn

 

[CSF77]

The team is better than people remember. I mean look it won 95 games with a hurt darvish and a hurt Bryant who if healthy might realistically have made the team a 100 win team. There's also additional reason to bet on them being better next year. Q's ERA in September of last year was 3.24 and he really started looking more like the guy they traded for. You also have Hamels for a full season if he's anywhere near as good as last year that's a big get. I mean you look at that starting rotation and their #5 starter is probably Q who at his best was a very good #2. The vast majority of the bullpen is back and hopefully Morrow is healthy. The cubs 3.35 bullpen ERA was second only two Houston last year. And while there's some holes to fill in it they have a good starting point.

So just looking at their pitching I would bet on it being better next year and it was pretty good in 2018. In terms of their hitting, Rizzo didn't have a Rizzo year. Bryant didn't have a Bryant year. Contreras had a down year. And Schwarber/Almora showed great signs in the first half but didn't put together a full season. Each of those guys having another year under their belt probably helps their development. Zobrist and Heyward if they can maintain roughly what they did or not drop off too hard in the case of Zobrist should still be fine. Baez I expect to come back down to earth but if you effectively flip his performance with what you expect out of rizzo it's not a big loss.

Boston's hitters produced 29.4 fWAR last year. They got 15.8 from their starters and 4.9 from their relievers. For the cubs that's 27.2 8.9 and 4.0 and I'd add that because they had a DH that ~2 war difference in hitters is a bit misleading. That's not to say the cubs have everything figured out. Obviously there's holes in the bullpen that need filling and they need to figure out why the **** their offense "breaks" at times. But to sit here and say they aren't even in the Red Sox's league is flatly wrong. The one area the cubs were clearly outclassed in 2018 was starting pitching but that didn't include a healthy darvish, only included half a season of Hamels and Q was pretty mediocre until the end of the season.

Long story short, if the cubs pitching is as good as it looks on paper I think I'd still give an edge to boston but it's not like they are a 110 win team and the cubs are an 80 win team. The current roster of the cubs team very realistically could win 100 games.

Here is the short version:

Davis was brought in to reduce strike outs. So he leveled their swing angles. What it resulted in was #26 in FB rates. 23.6% team wide.

Groundballs? #2 in baseball. 1952 of them. Honestly they were luck with then as is. BABIP .313 # 2 in baseball.

As a team wRC+ at 100 league avg. #12 in baseball.

#11 team least strike outs.
#8 in walks. So Baez and Almora soaking AB's didn't kill the over all approach.

Over all they were a good quality team as is. I think we are losing sight of it.

 

[chibears55]

The team is better than people remember. I mean look it won 95 games with a hurt darvish and a hurt Bryant who if healthy might realistically have made the team a 100 win team. There's also additional reason to bet on them being better next year. Q's ERA in September of last year was 3.24 and he really started looking more like the guy they traded for. You also have Hamels for a full season if he's anywhere near as good as last year that's a big get. I mean you look at that starting rotation and their #5 starter is probably Q who at his best was a very good #2. The vast majority of the bullpen is back and hopefully Morrow is healthy. The cubs 3.35 bullpen ERA was second only two Houston last year. And while there's some holes to fill in it they have a good starting point.

So just looking at their pitching I would bet on it being better next year and it was pretty good in 2018. In terms of their hitting, Rizzo didn't have a Rizzo year. Bryant didn't have a Bryant year. Contreras had a down year. And Schwarber/Almora showed great signs in the first half but didn't put together a full season. Each of those guys having another year under their belt probably helps their development. Zobrist and Heyward if they can maintain roughly what they did or not drop off too hard in the case of Zobrist should still be fine. Baez I expect to come back down to earth but if you effectively flip his performance with what you expect out of rizzo it's not a big loss.

Boston's hitters produced 29.4 fWAR last year. They got 15.8 from their starters and 4.9 from their relievers. For the cubs that's 27.2 8.9 and 4.0 and I'd add that because they had a DH that ~2 war difference in hitters is a bit misleading. That's not to say the cubs have everything figured out. Obviously there's holes in the bullpen that need filling and they need to figure out why the **** their offense "breaks" at times. But to sit here and say they aren't even in the Red Sox's league is flatly wrong. The one area the cubs were clearly outclassed in 2018 was starting pitching but that didn't include a healthy darvish, only included half a season of Hamels and Q was pretty mediocre until the end of the season.

Long story short, if the cubs pitching is as good as it looks on paper I think I'd still give an edge to boston but it's not like they are a 110 win team and the cubs are an 80 win team. The current roster of the cubs team very realistically could win 100 games.

Taking nothing away from 95 wins..
I do agree the SP this year if healthy could be very strong

Problem I see is with a couple key players on offense..

Russell: struggled last 2 seasons
Schwarber: struggled last 2 seasons
Heyward: outside a hot month or so in 18, he still a struggling bat last 3 seasons
CF: has been a merry go round the last 2 seasons

That 4 positions in the lineup where they got minimal production over the last 2 seasons

So, if they were to upgrade any of 1 to 4 of those guys, it would be a plus

 

[Castor76]

You mean sign???
You dont trade for FAs
Just sayn

I'm talking about trade for this season. He won't be a FA until after the 2019 season.

 

[JimJohnson]

The team is better than people remember. I mean look it won 95 games with a hurt darvish and a hurt Bryant who if healthy might realistically have made the team a 100 win team. There's also additional reason to bet on them being better next year. Q's ERA in September of last year was 3.24 and he really started looking more like the guy they traded for. You also have Hamels for a full season if he's anywhere near as good as last year that's a big get. I mean you look at that starting rotation and their #5 starter is probably Q who at his best was a very good #2. The vast majority of the bullpen is back and hopefully Morrow is healthy. The cubs 3.35 bullpen ERA was second only two Houston last year. And while there's some holes to fill in it they have a good starting point.

So just looking at their pitching I would bet on it being better next year and it was pretty good in 2018. In terms of their hitting, Rizzo didn't have a Rizzo year. Bryant didn't have a Bryant year. Contreras had a down year. And Schwarber/Almora showed great signs in the first half but didn't put together a full season. Each of those guys having another year under their belt probably helps their development. Zobrist and Heyward if they can maintain roughly what they did or not drop off too hard in the case of Zobrist should still be fine. Baez I expect to come back down to earth but if you effectively flip his performance with what you expect out of rizzo it's not a big loss.

Boston's hitters produced 29.4 fWAR last year. They got 15.8 from their starters and 4.9 from their relievers. For the cubs that's 27.2 8.9 and 4.0 and I'd add that because they had a DH that ~2 war difference in hitters is a bit misleading. That's not to say the cubs have everything figured out. Obviously there's holes in the bullpen that need filling and they need to figure out why the **** their offense "breaks" at times. But to sit here and say they aren't even in the Red Sox's league is flatly wrong. The one area the cubs were clearly outclassed in 2018 was starting pitching but that didn't include a healthy darvish, only included half a season of Hamels and Q was pretty mediocre until the end of the season.

Long story short, if the cubs pitching is as good as it looks on paper I think I'd still give an edge to boston but it's not like they are a 110 win team and the cubs are an 80 win team. The current roster of the cubs team very realistically could win 100 games.

Good post.

 

[CSF77]

Taking nothing away from 95 wins..
I do agree the SP this year if healthy could be very strong

Problem I see is with a couple key players on offense..

Russell: struggled last 2 seasons
Schwarber: struggled last 2 seasons
Heyward: outside a hot month or so in 18, he still a struggling bat last 3 seasons
CF: has been a merry go round the last 2 seasons

That 4 positions in the lineup where they got minimal production over the last 2 seasons

So, if they were to upgrade any of 1 to 4 of those guys, it would be a plus

What are you looking at on Schwarber?

I'm seeing 1.6 WAR to 3.2 WAR increase. OBA from .315 to .356 So if you can't see him improving I can't help you.

Russell I'm not arguing with you. I'm still not a fan.

Heyward has improved. But this run is the worst in his career. 1.9 WAR in 2011 was his all time low. But wRC+ 72-> 88->99 He has been steadily improving.

I'll tell you what I think:

Heyward has to be played. You will never trade him until his value is peaking again. It wouldn't shock me if he posted a 120 wRC+ next year.

Now CF: Almora and Happ.

Almora:

2016 112 PA: 101 wRC+
2017: 323 PA: 103
2018: 479 PA 89

I think that he is a platoon case. He had favorable match ups and hit at league avg. A larger diet of RH pitching he fell 11% below the bell curve.

But splits:

Happ vs RHP: 118 wRC+ Almora: 84
Happ vs LHP: 69 Almora: 101

This is a pure platoon situation here.

 

[CSF77]

Good post.

Ya. The thing is Boston spend 230 Mil+. NYY/LAD were resetting their tax. So Boston said F-it and went for it. They were the best team because they spent the most.
That is pretty much reality.

That is why I said even the Red Sox will never match that because it was a 1 year burn. They are losing the end of their pen. That team is not sustainable as constructed.

 

[TL1961]

Ya know I prefer Brantley strait. But Rizzo is the most productive lead off in baseball. Im honestly thinking just build it towards OBA and Rizzo and Bryant are hovering .400 every year. Schwarber just for a power bat. Add to it he posted a .315 wRC+. But Zo works here also if Schwarber is 30%+ So’s Still a 30 HR bat makes more sense here. Baez puts the ball in play and you need OBA to feed the monster. After that you want Zo and Contreras.

Billy would be kinda ideal as a 9 just because he would distract and he might be the best D CF in baseball. Other than that Almora fits this role fine too. He is not a bad base runner either.

The Cubs' offense is terrible when Rizzo leads off.

 

[TL1961]

What are you looking at on Schwarber?

I'm seeing 1.6 WAR to 3.2 WAR increase. OBA from .315 to .356 So if you can't see him improving I can't help you.

Russell I'm not arguing with you. I'm still not a fan.

Heyward has improved. But this run is the worst in his career. 1.9 WAR in 2011 was his all time low. But wRC+ 72-> 88->99 He has been steadily improving.

I'll tell you what I think:

Heyward has to be played. You will never trade him until his value is peaking again. It wouldn't shock me if he posted a 120 wRC+ next year.

Now CF: Almora and Happ.

Almora:

2016 112 PA: 101 wRC+
2017: 323 PA: 103
2018: 479 PA 89

I think that he is a platoon case. He had favorable match ups and hit at league avg. A larger diet of RH pitching he fell 11% below the bell curve.

But splits:

Happ vs RHP: 118 wRC+ Almora: 84
Happ vs LHP: 69 Almora: 101

This is a pure platoon situation here.

Except Happ sucks defensively in CF.

And the Heyward reasoning kills me.

He is not good enough to be a starter, so we need to trade him. Except his trade value is low, so we need to start him, in hopes that he can improve. And if he does, we trade him.

 

[CSF77]

Except Happ sucks defensively in CF.

And the Heyward reasoning kills me.

He is not good enough to be a starter, so we need to trade him. Except his trade value is low, so we need to start him, in hopes that he can improve. And if he does, we trade him.

100 wRC+ is league avg O. D wise he placed #6 in the fielding bible awards.

So over all his O is neutral. His D is plus. So his value is not a minus right now. Which is a major improvement over dislike value O and Positive value D. Which negates each other.

Going into the signing he earned his contract. He has not made good on it but his trending is going up vs down or flat line. So the only way to move this deal is letting him play it. 1 it eats part of the value with time. Common sense bit. 2nd with a upwards trend then the value of the deal is not backwards. He posted a 1.9 WAR season. That is basically valued at 16M He was paid 23M for it. If he posts a 3 WAR season that is valued at 24M which is equal to his AAV. Schwarber posted a 3WAR season this past year so this is not like a unreachable plateau.

Happ was not good at CF. I know that. -19 UZR150. But he held a 15 the year before. Sample size was 350-400 innings each year. Honestly I think that he has the tool set but needs quality coaching more than anything. Almora is a highlight reel. You really can't teach that.

 

[CSF77]

What is crazy: Billy has posted UZR150

2014: 13.1
2015: 10.0
2016: 15.3
2017: 11.2
2018: 6.0

Almora's highest season: 2.9 Honestly Billy is a superior CF. It is temping to make him a offer. We are talking GG level CF with 50 SB speed. I would put up with drag bunt O