Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Castor76]

What is crazy: Billy has posted UZR150

2014: 13.1
2015: 10.0
2016: 15.3
2017: 11.2
2018: 6.0

Almora's highest season: 2.9 Honestly Billy is a superior CF. It is temping to make him a offer. We are talking GG level CF with 50 SB speed. I would put up with drag bunt O

Would you bat him 8th and forget about it? Almost his entire career at the majors has been at the leadoff spot. Perhaps being put in a different role and getting a few free passes could change his outlook and approach.

 

[JimJohnson]

The Cubs' offense is terrible when Rizzo leads off.

I agree. We need to abandon the idea of Rizzo leading off. It's just turrrrrrrrrible!

 

[CSF77]

I agree. We need to abandon the idea of Rizzo leading off. It's just turrrrrrrrrible!

Him leading off had nothing to do with the slump. If anything that boost in his production salvaged that part of the season.

.328/.428/.552 really sucks out of your lead off.

but batting

.272/.369/.451 out of the 3 hole is far better production.

on the planet moron.

 

[CSF77]

Would you bat him 8th and forget about it? Almost his entire career at the majors has been at the leadoff spot. Perhaps being put in a different role and getting a few free passes could change his outlook and approach.

8 would be pointless. You push an auto out bunt behind a runner that doesn’t require help advancing bases. 9 makes more sense.

 

[CSF77]

The reality is any hitter ahead of Bryant sees a boost in production. Almora did, Heyward did and Rizzo did. Again him being injured caused the break in the O. Davis causing the Cubs to become landscapers didn't help but losing Bryant affected it more.

That is why I'm kinda laughing at all of the posts here regarding the pathetic 2nd half. I would have been concerned if Bryant was 100% and Davis didn't screw with the hitters.
Then I would be on board the Manny train because they need talent. Right now they need Bryant healthy and then build around him.

 

[CSF77]

I was looking at the Padre's team needs. Fangraphs has Wil Meyers at 3B now. But most sources do not believe that Preller is serious about him. Now Mike Moustakas makes more sense going forward for them there.

but

$83m / 6 Years (2017 - 2022) + 1 Option Years (Edit)
signed by San Diego Padres on 1/17/2017 (Extension)
2017: $2M, 2018: $2M, 2019: $3M, 2020: $20M, 2021: $20M, 2022: $20M

Padres IMO would be smart to move Meyer's contract this off season. 2020 his pay scales up and he is being used as a slash right now.

Now as far as the Cubs go he would fit in RF while platooning Heyward and Almora in CF. His impact would be 3 Mil and when his pay scales then it is off set by Cole coming off the books.

Now SD needs pitching. They have Clayton Richards listed as their ace? I could see Meyers for Alozay, Underwood and ODLC. Pad's are stacked with LHP talent but a lacking for RHP talent.

 

[chibears55]

What are you looking at on Schwarber?

I'm seeing 1.6 WAR to 3.2 WAR increase. OBA from .315 to .356 So if you can't see him improving I can't help you.

Russell I'm not arguing with you. I'm still not a fan.

Heyward has improved. But this run is the worst in his career. 1.9 WAR in 2011 was his all time low. But wRC+ 72-> 88->99 He has been steadily improving.

I'll tell you what I think:

Heyward has to be played. You will never trade him until his value is peaking again. It wouldn't shock me if he posted a 120 wRC+ next year.

Now CF: Almora and Happ.

Almora:

2016 112 PA: 101 wRC+
2017: 323 PA: 103
2018: 479 PA 89

I think that he is a platoon case. He had favorable match ups and hit at league avg. A larger diet of RH pitching he fell 11% below the bell curve.

But splits:

Happ vs RHP: 118 wRC+ Almora: 84
Happ vs LHP: 69 Almora: 101

This is a pure platoon situation here.

Schwarber...

Had a 1.5 War in 2018 not 3.2

Outside of walking and hitting some bombs he provided very little offensively.

He strikes out alot and is basically useless against LH pitching


He sorta sucked really bad in 17 outside of hitting Hrs and I guess you can say he sucked a little less in 18 outside of hitting some Hrs but he still sucked offensively..lol

 

[CSF77]

Schwarber...

Had a 1.5 War in 2018 not 3.2

Outside of walking and hitting some bombs he provided very little offensively.

He strikes out alot and is basically useless against LH pitching


He sorta sucked really bad in 17 outside of hitting Hrs and I guess you can say he sucked a little less in 18 outside of hitting some Hrs but he still sucked offensively..lol

WTF are you talking about?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF

Oh you are looking at bWAR. fWAR is considered the standard.

 

[beckdawg]

It's gonna be a long winter if shit doesn't pick up soon. Last winter we kept waiting and waiting for the dam to burst and stuff to happen and it really never came.

 

[Castor76]

It's gonna be a long winter if shit doesn't pick up soon. Last winter we kept waiting and waiting for the dam to burst and stuff to happen and it really never came.

I expect nothing until the winter meeting get here. Then some stuff, followed by more nothing until someone breaks. Everyone going to be positioning for a few guys but not wanting to jump the gun and get the best deal they can.

 

[chibears55]

It's gonna be a long winter if shit doesn't pick up soon. Last winter we kept waiting and waiting for the dam to burst and stuff to happen and it really never came.

as far as cubs go...
Last winter it was pitching as we waited on them to sign 2 SP and a closer

This year, it the offense as we'll be waiting to see if they trade any of their young core guys ( Contreras Russell Schwarber Heyward Almora Happ ) and or sign that big FA ( Harper Machado)to try and change up the offense a bit

 

[CSF77]

as far as cubs go...
Last winter it was pitching as we waited on them to sign 2 SP and a closer

This year, it the offense as we'll be waiting to see if they trade any of their young core guys ( Contreras Russell Schwarber Heyward Almora Happ ) and or sign that big FA ( Harper Machado)to try and change up the offense a bit

Theo first said trade for pitching. Then got involved with Ohtani failed signed a off the radar and 11 hr. Best deals were in the pen.

This year Ryan IMO becomes a unexpected excellent decision offering him a major league deal. They need another late inning arm still.

The meeting starts on the 10th. I believe they reduced the 40 down to 36 for a reason. Russell and ODLCcoming off is a part of it but that still leaves 2 adds. Lead off and late inning arm

 

[beckdawg]

So, apropos of nothing the fact that Philly is near a trade for Segura is pretty interesting. The thought up until recently was they were a front runner for machado and/or harper. I suppose they could still be in on harper but the market for Machado seems really really dead right now. Like who's the favorite if Seagura goes to Philly? The White Sox? I mean there's the Yankees but they don't seem particularly focused on him though I suppose that could be smokescreen. There's the cubs who I've long said make a ton of sense but the cubs seem like money issues may be at play on the top end. LA seems out. So IDK....

Basically, I'm sitting here wondering if Machado is this year's Darvish as a guy the cubs probably weren't initially going to target but who may price himself into their range. And logically speaking if the prices aren't crazy on Machado I think playing with his close personal friend Almora would give the cubs a leg up.

 

[Castor76]

So, apropos of nothing the fact that Philly is near a trade for Segura is pretty interesting. The thought up until recently was they were a front runner for machado and/or harper. I suppose they could still be in on harper but the market for Machado seems really really dead right now. Like who's the favorite if Seagura goes to Philly? The White Sox? I mean there's the Yankees but they don't seem particularly focused on him though I suppose that could be smokescreen. There's the cubs who I've long said make a ton of sense but the cubs seem like money issues may be at play on the top end. LA seems out. So IDK....

Basically, I'm sitting here wondering if Machado is this year's Darvish as a guy the cubs probably weren't initially going to target but who may price himself into their range. And logically speaking if the prices aren't crazy on Machado I think playing with his close personal friend Almora would give the cubs a leg up.

It would blow out the CBT unless they found taker for Heyward and Money, but I'd argue it could be worth it. Draft pics are nice, but only if you can identify and develop the players. Someone else can tell me how the Reds and Padres systems are looking as they've been drafting in the upper half of the rounds the past 4 years and about to be 5.

At that point I go crazy and see if I can make a run at Harper too to have a super line up. Presuming none would be traded off, but some most likely would,

Contreas C
Rizzo 1B
Baez 2B
Machado SS
Bryant 3B
Shwarber LF
Almora CF
Harper RF

You could be possible crazy and have

Rizzo
Bryant
Harper
Machado
Schwarber
Baez
Contreas
Pitcher
Almora

But of course that's pipe dream of a pipe dream

 

[CSF77]

Manny is a spoiled child that kicks his class mates and complains if he doesn’t get the best seat in the house. Philly is making the right choice right now and targeting a better quality human

 

[chibears55]

Phillies still target Manny for 3B

If the cubs are interested in either of the 2 big FA, i have to believe it Harper

I can't wait for the meeting to start to see what Theo plan is for 19

 

[anotheridiot]

Phillies still target Manny for 3B

If the cubs are interested in either of the 2 big FA, i have to believe it Harper

I can't wait for the meeting to start to see what Theo plan is for 19

yeah, I kind of feel that Philly will still be in on Machado, but since nobody seems to be beating down his door to get him, they may be able to dictate some terms and tell him he will play third. Just think, you gotta pay a guy around 30 million and dont get to put him where you want..

 

[beckdawg]

It would blow out the CBT unless they found taker for Heyward and Money

I mean not really. It all depends on the price Machado goes for. They are currently on pace for something like $225 mil. If we assume the $246 mil is the absolute hard limit which seems to make the most sense, they are $21 mil under that. The thought was that Machado's market heading into FA was probably $30 mil. But if it's more like $20 or $25 mil that's workable. Granted you're likely going to need to move someone like Chatwood still but they likely need to do that anyways. I've mentioned the idea of him for Martin before but if you could effectively trade his bad contract for another player with a bad contract who's at C, or RP or maybe 2B/SS then you fill the only real holes left and assuming the trade is mostly CBT neutral then staying under $246 mil isn't that unrealistic.

 

[anotheridiot]

I mean not really. It all depends on the price Machado goes for. They are currently on pace for something like $225 mil. If we assume the $246 mil is the absolute hard limit which seems to make the most sense, they are $21 mil under that. The thought was that Machado's market heading into FA was probably $30 mil. But if it's more like $20 or $25 mil that's workable. Granted you're likely going to need to move someone like Chatwood still but they likely need to do that anyways. I've mentioned the idea of him for Martin before but if you could effectively trade his bad contract for another player with a bad contract who's at C, or RP or maybe 2B/SS then you fill the only real holes left and assuming the trade is mostly CBT neutral then staying under $246 mil isn't that unrealistic.

How do you see they will get to the top side of the tax limit when they dont even want to get out of the basement onto the floor?

They need to move Heyward just to pay the guys that are left here.

 

[CSF77]

How do you see they will get to the top side of the tax limit when they dont even want to get out of the basement onto the floor?

They need to move Heyward just to pay the guys that are left here.

246 is where they start losing draft picks hard. I see them going over. This is the thing; signing Cole pushed them over. If they were concerned then they would have status que and let Cole walk. So Beck is right. They are committed to winning in 2019 and expect more.