Offseason thread

[knoxville7]

Glass is not equal to Morel. It would have been Brown centering that deal plus

Sale? I doubt that also.

Chapman? It was going to be Chapman or Cody and Jed picked his buddy.

Chapman had a better season than Cody this year. Parades was a better ending player. Plus he is going to get around 6-8M in 2025.

I was pro Glass last off-season. I believe most here thought that I was crazy for saying that he should have been targeted. Well he would have been the needed ace and they could have still targeted Shota.

Jed's biggest fail this offseason was targeting Cody after having Busch at 1B and PCA almost ready. It was a fan suck off move.

The 2nd biggest fail was going cheap at closer. Became a shit show.

So if Jed traded for Glass and then targeted Hader then this year might have been a bit better.

How was your climax then?!

 

[TL1961]

They had the #1 system and still traded out their blue chips for Soto. Then it didn't work out so they freed up payroll and traded for Cease.

And they made the play offs.

SD was a strong team under Bochy. Then not so great under Black. This current team is under the Cubs in payroll on the 40 man. 231M to 237M and +10 wins going up against the Dodgers in Division.
Add to it SF was running a 250M 40 man and the Dodgers 351M. So winning 92 games in that environment is far more impressive than the Cubs barely breaking .500 in a division front lined by a STL at 215M and Mil at 160M and the rest under 120M

So SD got their payroll in check and added a ace. Result was a play off berth. Cubs made some decent moves but were out weighted by adding Cody and Neris. They broke even in wins from last year.

SD has a legit Ace. A superstar hitter. A legit closer that saved 36 games.

The Cubs a semi ace (need to prove not a one and done) no superstar hitter. Suzuki was the closest thing and he is not at that level. And a influx of closers that made us feel that we were watching musical chairs

These two teams are not even in the same stratosphere

Your response about this 9 year run of being under .500 with superstars us to discuss only 2024 and bring up Cubs’ payroll?

Personally, I could give a shit what my team spends. All I care about is how they perform on the field. If they are not performing and not spending, I’ll be upset that they’re not doing what it takes but if they win, I don’t care if they have spent or not spent $240 million.

But my question was about the Padres.

 

[CSF77]

SD, Det, KC advanced. Mil put up a fight

 

[CSF77]

Your response about this 9 year run of being under .500 with superstars us to discuss only 2024 and bring up Cubs’ payroll?

Personally, I could give a shit what my team spends. All I care about is how they perform on the field. If they are not performing and not spending, I’ll be upset that they’re not doing what it takes but if they win, I don’t care if they have spent or not spent $240 million.

But my question was about the Padres.

You should care. If a team spends over 230M that goes back onto the fan in avg price of attendance.

So if you are paying more for a product then you should expect more in return

If you are self centered and don't give a shit about all of that then I feel sorry for your lame ass

San Diego Padres Team History & Encyclopedia | Baseball-Reference.com

Get information about San Diego Padres history, past franchise names, retired numbers, top players and more on Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

So which 9 years are you talking about

Last year they won 82. Previous 89,

I would say the change in dynamic was with the Machado signing in 2019. They built a stadium downtown. That caused the whole downtown to modernize over the years and is still in process. That was a dynamic change in San Diego and Petco has also been taking part of comic con every year

From that time the Pads have gone from a small market to a mid bordering large market venue.

Their record post Machado signing:

450-420 with a compiled payroll of 1.3B

Cubs over that span 429-441 with a compiled payroll of 1.3B.

Add to it SD has a superior division with 2 top 5 payroll teams to contend with. Cubs are the top dog in division and have sub performed with the largest payroll

So if you can not figure out how incompetent Jed has been I am sorry for your lack of common sense

 

[EberflusBeardBears]

Glass is not equal to Morel. It would have been Brown centering that deal plus

Sale? I doubt that also.

Chapman? It was going to be Chapman or Cody and Jed picked his buddy.

Chapman had a better season than Cody this year. Parades was a better ending player. Plus he is going to get around 6-8M in 2025.

I was pro Glass last off-season. I believe most here thought that I was crazy for saying that he should have been targeted. Well he would have been the needed ace and they could have still targeted Shota.

Jed's biggest fail this offseason was targeting Cody after having Busch at 1B and PCA almost ready. It was a fan suck off move.

The 2nd biggest fail was going cheap at closer. Became a shit show.

So if Jed traded for Glass and then targeted Hader then this year might have been a bit better.

I'm not sure what we are arguing about to be honest. We have the highest payroll of any team not in the playoffs and you can look around the league and there are so many guys that the Cubs could have retained and wanted to stay in Chicago but Jed chose to let them go, and they are big reasons why their new teams are in the playoffs.

Besides Jed's mother, I don't think anyone can really argue he's been a success at his job. It's very unlikely a replacement GM would do worse than Jed, because Jed is currently the least efficient and productive GM in MLB.

If we replace him with the worst GM in the league so that it matches where we are at now, then so be it. That's a risk worth taking.

 

[EberflusBeardBears]

Anyone responsible for the Schwarber decision should be let go, honestly. The writing was on the wall that the DH was coming to the NL and his power made Wrigley look like a little league park. He'd have been hitting 40/50 HR a year for us for the rest of his career and that would have saved us a lot the last few years especially with how our offense stalls.

 

[knoxville7]

I'm not sure what we are arguing about to be honest. We have the highest payroll of any team not in the playoffs and you can look around the league and there are so many guys that the Cubs could have retained and wanted to stay in Chicago but Jed chose to let them go, and they are big reasons why their new teams are in the playoffs.

Besides Jed's mother, I don't think anyone can really argue he's been a success at his job. It's very unlikely a replacement GM would do worse than Jed, because Jed is currently the least efficient and productive GM in MLB.

If we replace him with the worst GM in the league so that it matches where we are at now, then so be it. That's a risk worth taking.

Schwarber and who else??

 

[Diehardfan]

Some things never change.....Brewers blow through the season easily winning the Central.....then whoops.

Bounced out in the first round.......AGAIN.

LOL

 

[SilenceS]

Peter sucks at baseball

 

[Diehardfan]

I'm not sure what we are arguing about to be honest. We have the highest payroll of any team not in the playoffs and you can look around the league and there are so many guys that the Cubs could have retained and wanted to stay in Chicago but Jed chose to let them go, and they are big reasons why their new teams are in the playoffs.

Besides Jed's mother, I don't think anyone can really argue he's been a success at his job. It's very unlikely a replacement GM would do worse than Jed, because Jed is currently the least efficient and productive GM in MLB.

If we replace him with the worst GM in the league so that it matches where we are at now, then so be it. That's a risk worth taking.

Ok, you're new here. But most of us here have been bitching about the Cubs inept GM for over two years.

It's old news to us.

 

[CSF77]

Jed had an interview. His game plan for 2025 is the current roster to over perform expectations.


IE we are not going to target Soto or any other top dollar player.

And not once did he say that the goal.was to win a championship.

Sometimes I wonder if he is just Tom's ***** voice box or is he this much of a pussy.

 

[CSF77]

On a good note Mil got crushed in the 9th.

Even though the Mets have a pay roll that is 190M higher than the Crew.

Ya that shit is real. Mets should be a powerhouse with that ability to buy the top players.

With the Cubs fan base there is no reason why they are not at tax every year. All I ever hear is excuses why they can not vs actions to push them to the next level.

Maybe his daddy selling Ameratrade scared Tom into daddy can't bail me out mode

 

[CSF77]

Cubs future speak from Jed.

 

[CSF77]

Anyone responsible for the Schwarber decision should be let go, honestly. The writing was on the wall that the DH was coming to the NL and his power made Wrigley look like a little league park. He'd have been hitting 40/50 HR a year for us for the rest of his career and that would have saved us a lot the last few years especially with how our offense stalls.

Cubs were #29 in park factor. Or there were wind not blowing out games more than normal.

Somethings never change. Ability to get on base and solid base running skills and solid D.

The HR plays up more on the road as the park factor was not favoring a team built around it.

That is why Cody was so good in 2023. He put the ball where the D was not and hit .307. That is how you score runs in Wrigley constantly. Get guys on and get them into scoring position by good hitting.

Yes the Cubs need a guy like Soto. It is never going to happen unless Tom hires a team Pres. That will not knuckle underneath Tom.

So under this current model the best bet is to trade up to make the pen top end then push Brown into Kyle's spot in the rotation. That should get the Cubs into the 86 win on paper. After that it comes down to over performance

 

[CSF77]

Cody Bellinger 1b-of
3 years/$80M (2024-26)
24: $27.5M, 25: $27.5M player option ($2.5M buyout), 26: $25M player option ($5M buyout)



Jameson Taillon rhp

4 years/$68M (2023-26)

23: $14M, 24: $18M, 25: $18M, 26: $18M

limited no-trade protection allowing Taillon to block deals to 10 clubs annually



Nico Hoerner 2b
3 years/$35M (2024-26)

24: $11.5M, 25: $11.5M, 26: $12M



57M freed up.



Internal replacements:

RF: Platoon of Caissie and Alcantara.

2B: Shaw

SP: Brown



F/A: Hendricks 24: $16M club option

Replacement: Wicks



Lowers 40 man to 93.4M



Arb cases:



Cubs (14)

• Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM (Maybe)
• Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM (Pass)
• Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM (Maybe)
• Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM (pass)
• Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM (Kick rocks)
• Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM (kick rocks)
• Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM (pass)
• Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM (kick rocks)
• Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM (pass)
• Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM (yes)
• Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM (yes)
• Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K (who dat?)
• Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K (Punched his ticket out)
• Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM (over it)

So I could see Almonte, Tauchman, Paredes, Steele offered. 20M approx.



Puts payroll at 113M. Add bonus pool and benefits package: 132M



Major needs:

Pen.

Current players:

Luke Little (40-man depth ATM)

Caleb Kilian (He should get a roster spot)

Michael Arias (Should get some games in)

Porter Hodge (High leverage arm)

Jack Neely (Could become a high leverage arm)

Hayden Wesneski (Swing guy)



They need a closer. They have decent talent going on but they lack an anchor.



High-Leverage Arms

• Jeff Hoffman (32)

MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Hoffman’s emergence in a piece for Front Office subscribers last week. The former top 10 pick bounced around the league before finding a home in Philadelphia. He has a sterling 2.28 ERA across 118 2/3 innings for the Phils over the past two seasons. Hoffman has pitched his way up the leverage hierarchy and proven up to the challenge of tougher assignments. He posted a 2.17 mark while striking out more than a third of batters faced over 66 1/3 frames this season. Hoffman should at least land a three-year deal and has a shot at four — especially if he continues to elevate his profile with a strong postseason showing at the back of Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

• Carlos Estévez (32)

When Estévez first hit the market two seasons ago, he was a hard-throwing upside play who hadn’t put things together in Colorado. That has been one of the Angels’ better free agent moves in recent years. Estévez immediately stepped in as the Halos’ closer and turned in a 3.36 ERA with 51 saves over a season and a half. Los Angeles flipped him to the Phillies for a pair of highly-regarded pitching prospects at the deadline. Estévez has saved another six games with Philadelphia, turning in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames. His cumulative 23.6% strikeout percentage and 12.5% swinging strike rate are more solid than elite. Yet he’s showing the best command of his career (5.7% walk rate) while averaging nearly 97 MPH on his heater. He’s 26-31 in save chances. Estévez should get another multi-year deal and has a shot at breaking $30MM if he lands three years.



This post is already too long. But moves like this starts the turnaround.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I agree with the idea that we need to get Soto.
But after hearing Hoyer's end of season presser he seems content on trying to get the current roster to outplay projections. Which is a small market mentality, and if it continues this way he needs to get fired.
They need to either sign Soto or trade their AAA prospects for another stud that we perhaps aren't thinking of right now.

One of the major holes on this team is lack of homers. When you don't hit a homer the win percent for your team goes to about 30 percent, the Cubs were 19 wins out of 57 games this year when they didn't homer.

If we don't get Soto, there isn't really a good high homer guy on the market. So we would have to rely on talent coming up to do this, but many are blocked, which then logically leads to someone getting traded. But both Happ and Suzuki have no trade clauses.

 

[Dpaw]

Trade for Vlad and sign Fried

 

[CSF77]

Trade for Vlad and sign Fried

It is not a bad idea.

Everything hinges on Cody. But my opinion is to take the bull by the horns

Jed has solid trade chips. Out of who is on the team:

Parades, Hoerner, Busch are all strong trade chips

Of those 3 you would rather flip Hoerner of the 3 with Shaw ready and having a impact bat. Caissie is a cheaper Cody. I am not going to say that he is going to be greater. If he matches Cody then it is a success.

Targeting Vlad is a strong play for sure. Center it around Caissie, Hoerner and Busch. On get a pen arm depth piece in return with Vlad. Takes care of the needed star hitter. It also allows Jed to keep Cody in RF.

If they target a SP I would like them to target Walker Buehler. His nickname of Ferris is one of the reasons. Jed being able to get him at discount with bonuses and option kickers is another. Add to it SP is not a issue of depth right now. It is more so impact and Buehler has pitched at the highest level already. At worst it is a gamble that has little effect

They need a closer more. There are going to be a few to look at in F/A

 

[CSF77]

I agree with the idea that we need to get Soto.
But after hearing Hoyer's end of season presser he seems content on trying to get the current roster to outplay projections. Which is a small market mentality, and if it continues this way he needs to get fired.
They need to either sign Soto or trade their AAA prospects for another stud that we perhaps aren't thinking of right now.

One of the major holes on this team is lack of homers. When you don't hit a homer the win percent for your team goes to about 30 percent, the Cubs were 19 wins out of 57 games this year when they didn't homer.

If we don't get Soto, there isn't really a good high homer guy on the market. So we would have to rely on talent coming up to do this, but many are blocked, which then logically leads to someone getting traded. But both Happ and Suzuki have no trade clauses.

Say they did what I posted.

PCA CF
Suzuki DH
Bellinger RF
Vlad Jr 1B
Happ LF
Paredes 3B
Swanson SS
Amaya/Ballestroes C
Shaw 2B

Rotation

Steele
Imanaga
Taillon
Buehler
Brown/Wicks/Assad competition. If Buhler is a dud then for 2 spots and let Horton compete for a spot.

Pen was the biggest issue this year. The rotation was pretty decent for the regular season. Play offs is another animal and that is where you want a guy like Buehler to utilize.

They have talented arms but not one of them are playoff tested.

I would love to trade for Miller but I doubt Jed would give up his babies for pen arms. Vlad I can buy as the price of superstar hitters is 30M+

But I would like to see Hoffman from Phi targeted. Has play off exposure and at min a high leverage arm with closer upside. This gives Hodge the opportunity to challenge for the closer roll.

I do like a competitive environment as it makes players excel. I would stay away from Jansen etc. over paid and suspect at this point

 

[Diehardfan]

Ahhh, yet another change in the wind.

"20M gets you a top closer. I would prefer Jed to also target Jansen for catcher." 7/29/24