Offseason thread

[knoxville7]

But ya Jed did a end season presser.

Said that they have to over perform projections vs expect a major F/A signing.

Then he basically begged Cody to move on.

After Tom$ put out a note to the fans in F-flat

How did it go? Oh ya.

We came out great oh ya...
But injuries stopped us oh no.

It doesn't matter that other teams also got injured because it is not on my spreadsheet. Oh ya.

So I beg ya don't go.

Here is to a great system I deflect.
To Ryno's statue I deflect.
But keep on filling the seats I expect.

2025 the same ole song and dance please don't reject.

I’m high as **** and jamming out to this tune right now! Thanks, bud!

 

[CSF77]

Here is a potential plan

Looking at cots the Cubs are at 177M including all pending Arb cases

So here we go

Offer Paredes and Steele

Rest dump

Frees up around 22M

Rotation target 1 multi 1 rental

Rental is a holding spot for Horton. Assad, Brown, Kilian, Wesneski, Wicks go-to the pen for what ever roles suits them. Add in Hodge, Little for late inning leverage and Neely to compete for a job

So right now they are 52M under tax. Dropping Arb cases puts it around 70M give or take depending on replacement costs.

Now as a realistic long term target: Nathan Eovaldi if he opts. Jack Flaherty is another

One year deal. Verlander or Max would be awesome. Even if Horton comes up and Verlander jumps into the closer gig would be a great moment for the fans

Cody most likely opts in and I have said and read trade out. Thinking it over sit him in RF and let him build value. He is a plus glove in RF and I doubt that Caissie produces better next year. Soto is just wishing on a star.

 

[CSF77]

Jed did say something on his exit talk

Depth can not be undervalued. With injury and underperformance having top 100 talent in Iowa is a value that can not be quantified.

So I am thinking that it will be opertunity based. If Shaw comes out with a .350 BA and Hoerner or Paredes blow. Or Busch has a sophomore slump and Shaw can take over 3B and Paredes moves over to 1B.

Jed seems like the type to let the season to dictate vs trade out to open playing time.

 

[TL1961]

Why is the latest trend to say that something? “cannot be undervalued” when in fact you mean “cannot be overvalued”?

I see this all the time.

“The importance of a strong pitching staff cannot be understated.“

No, it cannot be OVERstated.

 

[knoxville7]

Why is the latest trend to say that something? “cannot be undervalued” when in fact you mean “cannot be overvalued”?

I see this all the time.

“The importance of a strong pitching staff cannot be understated.“

No, it cannot be OVERstated.

dude, i COULDNT care less!

 

[CSF77]

Why is the latest trend to say that something? “cannot be undervalued” when in fact you mean “cannot be overvalued”?

I see this all the time.

“The importance of a strong pitching staff cannot be understated.“

No, it cannot be OVERstated.

Ya I get your point

But I get where Jed is coming from. Most likely he will have Hoerner at 11.5M at 2B and Paredes at 3B and 7M.

Busch will have to keep his job and mid season slumps can end up as a trip to Iowa with the depth there.

It is a good place to be at. Most teams would love to be in that spot where you can swap a bat instead of dealing with a prolonged slump then letting said hitter figure it out while not giving up at bats to do so

 

[CSF77]

The more that I think about it pushing all of the SP projects into the pen and forcing position players into a performance based playing allotment then investing into the rotation works great

The rotation was the strongest point of the team and building around their top 3 makes it a force to deal with for teams. If the bats go cold then start swapping out bats. Pen should be in the same boat. Keep rotating in fresh arms and keep the overhead low.

Cody should be the only question going in and it would be foolish for him to test F/A off of a bad year after a good year got a snub. He most likely sits in RF and that is okay.

 

[CSF77]

Now here is my f-it and go for it one.

1. Retain Cody.
2. Extend Steele
3. Trade with Boston. Devers lacks a NTC. Send them Paredes, Hoerner, Alcantara or a arm like Brown or a prospect arm.
4. Trade with Oakland. Miller and Rooker and be willing to send over Horton, Caissie and Ballestroes plus.
5. Sign Burnes and German in F/A.

This would kill the system but in return you are getting a 3/4 hitter combo that this team lacks and a legit closer that you could convert back to a starter with ace upside

I feel that is a better play than hoping that it works out.

Rooker would be going into F/A, but an extension makes sense to retain a core hitter like that

Pay roll would get a ping but if Jed cuts his Arb cases it lowers the boom.

 

[CSF77]

Breakdown: Rooker Arb 1 Projected 5M I would buy that up. 29 now and will hit F/A at 32. So I would offer a 6/105M Gives a tax hit of 17.5M
Miller Hits Arb 1 2026. I see him getting super 2 so he should go into Arb this year.

So that would give Jed 2 guys starting their Arb cycle. A's would want a ton here as we are talking about 7 combined years of control.

That is why I would start with Horton. I just see Miller as a higher celling if Jed moves him to the rotation. Plus he is a known vs a unknown. Cubs should stick to what they know. A's know how to get players MLB ready. Jed lacks that trait. After that it would have to come down to negotiation. I would not go over 3 top 100 then 2 10-30 range guys. And yes I would trade Shaw also if I can lower the over all give. I am good with Busch moved to 2B and Cody at 1B. Jed has Vazquez that can push Busch at 2B. So it is not a major concern.

Devers would be a reload for Boston. They are planning to get involved this offseaon and Devers lacks a NTC. He has a tax hit of 29.1M

Paredes is projected at 5.25M. Hoerner 11.5M. So the numbers ease up some. +12.35M to payroll. I would give them Caissie and a lower prospect.

Then cutting arb cases: 21M off the books. That off sets the Oakland trade and extend. Devers pushes payroll up to 200M give or take which is 41M under tax. With that give Burnes a AAV of 30M and defer anything over to after the deal. German on a 1 year fix it for 3M at most. They have Assad, Wicks and Brown MLB tested. They still have Taillon coming off the books which opens up payroll. Personally I am converting Miller to the rotation at that point.

So it puts them right at tax and would go over if they decide to add at the deadline. But with the team on paper. They stand up with the top teams.

I am not a proponent of having the top farm. I was fine with the last run because they were all top 20 prospects vs a top 20 then 3 50's rest fighting to keep on the top 100. Add to it the current core is all tier 2 or lesser talent so adding unknowns to meh is not going to win many games.

When you go back to back 82 win seasons with a payroll at tax it is time to overhaul.

PCA CF
Suzuki RF/DH
Devers 3B
Rooker DH/RF/LF
Belli 1B/RF/CF
Happ LF/DH
Swanson SS
Busch2B/1B Vazquez 2B/SS
Amaya C

Then pick up a back up catcher and a glove first corner OF for D upgrade in RF. You would have to go with scoring to get ahead the protect the lead late. Or bring in Vazquez, Move Busch to 1b and Cody to RF. Might be a better use of a roster rotation.

Rotation

Burnes
Steele
Taillon
Shota
Brown (My pick)

Pen Miller and Hodge with what ever works.

 

[CSF77]

Getting close. And a bit disappointed with Judge. Sad off-season.

So what do most think on the Odds that Cody opts out now?

Mmm Buehller shut them down for 5. Well guess he still has stuff in the tank. Should help him getting a deal.

 

[SilenceS]

Breakdown: Rooker Arb 1 Projected 5M I would buy that up. 29 now and will hit F/A at 32. So I would offer a 6/105M Gives a tax hit of 17.5M
Miller Hits Arb 1 2026. I see him getting super 2 so he should go into Arb this year.

So that would give Jed 2 guys starting their Arb cycle. A's would want a ton here as we are talking about 7 combined years of control.

That is why I would start with Horton. I just see Miller as a higher celling if Jed moves him to the rotation. Plus he is a known vs a unknown. Cubs should stick to what they know. A's know how to get players MLB ready. Jed lacks that trait. After that it would have to come down to negotiation. I would not go over 3 top 100 then 2 10-30 range guys. And yes I would trade Shaw also if I can lower the over all give. I am good with Busch moved to 2B and Cody at 1B. Jed has Vazquez that can push Busch at 2B. So it is not a major concern.

Devers would be a reload for Boston. They are planning to get involved this offseaon and Devers lacks a NTC. He has a tax hit of 29.1M

Paredes is projected at 5.25M. Hoerner 11.5M. So the numbers ease up some. +12.35M to payroll. I would give them Caissie and a lower prospect.

Then cutting arb cases: 21M off the books. That off sets the Oakland trade and extend. Devers pushes payroll up to 200M give or take which is 41M under tax. With that give Burnes a AAV of 30M and defer anything over to after the deal. German on a 1 year fix it for 3M at most. They have Assad, Wicks and Brown MLB tested. They still have Taillon coming off the books which opens up payroll. Personally I am converting Miller to the rotation at that point.

So it puts them right at tax and would go over if they decide to add at the deadline. But with the team on paper. They stand up with the top teams.

I am not a proponent of having the top farm. I was fine with the last run because they were all top 20 prospects vs a top 20 then 3 50's rest fighting to keep on the top 100. Add to it the current core is all tier 2 or lesser talent so adding unknowns to meh is not going to win many games.

When you go back to back 82 win seasons with a payroll at tax it is time to overhaul.

PCA CF
Suzuki RF/DH
Devers 3B
Rooker DH/RF/LF
Belli 1B/RF/CF
Happ LF/DH
Swanson SS
Busch2B/1B Vazquez 2B/SS
Amaya C

Then pick up a back up catcher and a glove first corner OF for D upgrade in RF. You would have to go with scoring to get ahead the protect the lead late. Or bring in Vazquez, Move Busch to 1b and Cody to RF. Might be a better use of a roster rotation.

Rotation

Burnes
Steele
Taillon
Shota
Brown (My pick)

Pen Miller and Hodge with what ever works.

Brown wont be ready for opening of the season. He will most likely go to Iowa for depth

 

[CSF77]

Brown wont be ready for opening of the season. He will most likely go to Iowa for depth

The early word it Cody will opt out. Jed might offer Lopez a deal in his 4 day window. Then he will offer Patterson, Steele and Paredes Arb. Rest he will axe

I will have to look over the projected deals but Jed might be under 150M if that plays out.

Hodge I did look at and he matched what Biggie did in BAA, SO/BB etc. We got so hyped on Biggie but Hodge did that with out the flashy 100mph.

Brown I feel should be a set up with Little and Patterson. If he starts on the DL that is fine. I look at it as what he brings when he is on the mound and don't be codependent on it by lacking depth.

Wesneski has a different look with his horizontal pitch movement. I do like him as a situational pen arm. Taking Miller's spot.

Kilian needs to be given a mid inning role. It is time for him to make or break it. Last year his injury was unfortunate as he was on Craig's radar and most likely breaks camp. He got lost in the shuffle and pushed into starting. I see him as a 4 seem pitcher that goes up in the zone with his curve to counter. The whole 2 seem stuff is fine as a starter but he is not good enough to win a rotation spot.

Assad is a filler arm. Jed is just saving payroll with keeping him. Which is fine. Place holder for Horton is okay

Wicks could go into Smyly's role. Swing arm. His SO/9 was solid. It might make sense to let him mature a bit in that role.

That is how I feel about the pen ATM.

Now if Jed gets payroll down to 150M ya the rumor mill will pop off on Soto. That is 90M under tax and you could get Soto and Burnes for that coin.

Lilelyhood is less than 1% but that never stopped the koolade from flowing here

 

[CSF77]

Window is open. Sunday and Monday are the next deadlines.

 

[CSF77]

Snell opted out. Montgomery in. Belli left

 

[CSF77]

Bellinger just opted back in. I thought it was 50/50 but I was shocked a little bit. Anthony Rizzo got the ax from the Yankees. He's getting 6 million from a buyout so honestly I could even see Jed picking that up maybe for 2 million to be a bench leader and help groom first base

 

[CSF77]

3 options here:

1. Trade, now or at the deadline.

2. Let it play out and let him walk. Delay for a year to let the kids mature.

3. Extend and sell prospects for established vets.

I don't think that I have a opinion right now on this outside of option 2 feels the worst.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs Decline Option On Drew Smyly
November 2nd, 2024 at 11:55am CST • By Steve Adams
The Cubs have declined their end of a $10MM mutual option on left-hander Drew Smyly, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll be paid a $2.5MM buyout and return to the free agent market.

Smyly, 35, pitched to a 3.84 ERA in 58 2/3 innings over 50 relief appearances with the Cubs this past season, but that solid earned run average was accompanied by more worrying rate stats. The southpaw’s strikeout rate dipped to 21.8% while his walk rate spiked to a 9.7% mark that stands as the second-worst of his career. He also yielded an average of 1.53 homers per nine innings pitched and surrendered his highest hard-hit rate (38.2%) and average exit velocity (89.2 mph) since 2020. His 11.3% swinging-strike rate was his lowest since 2019.

When the Cubs signed Smyly, they did so with an eye toward a potential rotation spot. He indeed started 23 games for them in 2023, the first season of his two-year $19MM pact, but he didn’t make a single appearance out of the rotation in 2024. Chicago’s rotation mix includes Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks, with promising prospect Cade Horton on the horizon. Allocating $10MM to a swingman coming off diminished strikeout/walk rates and with ongoing home run issues wasn’t something on which the team was keen, clearly.

 

[TL1961]

Bellinger just opted back in. I thought it was 50/50 but I was shocked a little bit. Anthony Rizzo got the ax from the Yankees. He's getting 6 million from a buyout so honestly I could even see Jed picking that up maybe for 2 million to be a bench leader and help groom first base

Cubs have Busch at first and Bellinger who also plays first just opted back in and you feel that makes signing Rizzo who can only play first a likelihood?

 

[TL1961]

3 options here:

1. Trade, now or at the deadline.

2. Let it play out and let him walk. Delay for a year to let the kids mature.

3. Extend and sell prospects for established vets.

I don't think that I have a opinion right now on this outside of option 2 feels the worst.

Who is “him”?

 

[CSF77]

Cubs have Busch at first and Bellinger who also plays first just opted back in and you feel that makes signing Rizzo who can only play first a likelihood?

Bench bat/helping Bush refined his skills at first base. Also he is a team leader and I think they lack that right now. They should have gotten better and they got arguably worse and I feel it was losing the leadership that Ross brought and taking on laid back approach that Craig gives. So I think they need some of that team leadership that doesn't really show up in the numbers. For 2 million that's worth it