From a statistical standpoint, he simply is not a HOF'er. You have to compare him against his peers during the same era.
From Eli's 2nd season to his 15th season, he placed, on average, ~20th in QB rating in the league, ~19th in completion percentage, and 10.5th in TDs thrown. So overall, based on those 3 categories, you can say that more than half the league's QBs were consistently better than Eli throughout his career (at least regarding completion percentage and rating.)
That simply isn't good enough.
BUT, as others have mentioned.... His iron man streak and two sensational playoff runs may elevate him to HOF status.
Personally, as an individual player, I'm not sure that he deserves it. But I think he may make it, though it may take 10+ years to get in.