OT - PHI Extends Fletcher Cox, Most Guaranteed $$ In The NFL For A Non-QB

[Bort]

True, but then you have to look at the issue as "what would Cutler command on the open market", which is really the only relevant number in all of this.

What do you think he would command?

We can't actually run this experiment, but I bet someone would offer him a 2-year deal in the $30-35 million range.

 

[FirstTimer]

What do you think he would command?

We can't actually run this experiment, but I bet someone would offer him a 2-year deal in the $30-35 million range.

I'd bet something in the 2-3 year range. I could see something lower on the base pay scale ($12 million a year maybe) with some performance/awards incentives.

 

[Bort]

Except Stafford can at least claim two seasons that are easily better than Cutler and Alex Smith has been the QB of one of the better teams in football over the last half decade (49-21-1) and has had Rate+ numbers easily over 100 for the last five years. Smith is one of the most efficient and least turnover prone QB's in football.

Cutler's career Rate+ with the Bears is pretty similar to Fitzpatrick's since he's been a starter....so not sure what your point is.

Career Rate+ as a starter:

Smith: 102.5
Cutler: 102.0
Stafford: 99.0
Fitzpatrick: 94.5
Bradford: 94.2

Smith, Cutler, and Stafford have been pretty average, and Fitzpatrick and Bradford have been below average (although Bradford's number will likely come up due to the fact that he's younger).

 

[modo]

Relative to the average of rest of the NFL, none of that is true.






Cool. No one said any different.

I wasn't talking to you.....or was I


I don't have a clue what your first statement actually means....

No, Jay wasn't the best in the NFL at any of those compared to anyone else. But as far a completion percentage it was the same as Brady and the yards per pass was the same as Brady.....No one is saying he was tops in the NFL, but he got better than his career historic numbers.

And plenty of people thought Jay would be traded last year...there still are people who want Cutler gone....obviously

 

[Midway Fields]

not that much. Again, without even looking at contract numbers, what nfl teams would be willing to ditch their current starter and install cutler? Would those teams bid against each other in an effort to acquire cutler's services?

For all the ccs teeth-gnashing of how its impossible to find a starting qb, it looks like nearly every team is set at the position. That's why fitzpatrick is having difficult negotiations...teams like the jags and titans aren't willing to use him as even a stop-gap solution at qb.

wtf

 

[FirstTimer]

Career Rate+ as a starter:

I repeat:
Except Stafford can at least claim two seasons that are easily better than Cutler and Alex Smith has been the QB of one of the better teams in football over the last half decade (49-21-1) and has had Rate+ numbers easily over 100 for the last five years. Smith is one of the most efficient and least turnover prone QB's in football.

Call me crazy but I'd expect people to look at Smith's recent production and Stafford's recent production in deciding on their contract than some poor years early on.

Cutler Rate+ with the Bears: 99

Fitzpatrick as a starter: 95

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Not that much. Again, without even looking at contract numbers, what NFL teams would be willing to ditch their current starter and install Cutler? Would those teams bid against each other in an effort to acquire Cutler's services?

For all the CCS teeth-gnashing of how its impossible to find a starting QB, it looks like nearly every team is set at the position. That's why Fitzpatrick is having difficult negotiations...teams like the Jags and Titans aren't willing to use him as even a stop-gap solution at QB.

Niners, Browns, Bills, Jets. That's all I can think of. All of these teams would probably rather roll with what they have over Cutler, tbh.

 

[FirstTimer]

I don't have a clue what your first statement actually means....

That's not shocking....

Cutler's numbers last year that you cited("Cutler had his best season last year from a TD to INT ratio, average yards per pass, and QB rating".), relative to the NFL, were not the best of his career.

He did not have his best TD:INT ratio, his AVG Y/A, or Passer rating season relative to how the rest of the league performed(+ stats from PFR)

but he got better than his career historic numbers.

No he did not.

His Rate+ was not a career high. It was the same has his 2008 and worse than his 2007.

His TD:INT ratio by + numbers was better in:
2011 2008 and 2007

His Y/A by + numbers was better in:
2007 and the exact same in 2010.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CutlJa00.htm#passing_advanced::none

 

[Bort]

Not that much. Again, without even looking at contract numbers, what NFL teams would be willing to ditch their current starter and install Cutler? Would those teams bid against each other in an effort to acquire Cutler's services?

For all the CCS teeth-gnashing of how its impossible to find a starting QB, it looks like nearly every team is set at the position. That's why Fitzpatrick is having difficult negotiations...teams like the Jags and Titans aren't willing to use him as even a stop-gap solution at QB.

Fitzpatrick is having difficult negotiations because he is asking for a raise from $7.5 million a year to $16 million a year despite not being worth that much. The Jets have too good of a team to waste on Geno Smith, so I expect they'll eventually pay Fitzpatrick somewhere in the $9-10 million a year range. To answer your other question, the Jets would probably be willing to pay Cutler the $16 million a year that Fitzpatrick is asking for.

 

[modo]

I can't believe we've reached the point where the Cutler contract is ok with fans because Cutler has continued to suck/be average for coming up on half a decade and the rest of the NFL has improved and started handing out more money to younger QB's with more potential.

Would Bears fans be happy if tomorrow we cut Cutler and signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 1yr 18 million dollar deal?

Over the last two years:

Ryan Fitzpatrick
28 games
6,388 yards
48 TD's
23 INT's
90.6 Passer Rating

Jay Cutler
30 games
7471 yards
49TD's
29INT's
90.3 passer rating

Who cares about the contract......

Has it prevented us from signing a really great QB?

In the grand scheme of things I don't think it has hamstrung the Bears from really doing anything. They had plenty of money and will have plenty of money next year.

Jay's Cap number next year is 16 million, 17 million the next year and the year after in 2019 and 2020 it is 20m and 21.7m respectively......it really isn't that much...



Most people's complaints are that he isn't an "elite" QB or that we don't have an "elite" QB or that why aren't you more pissed about Cutler and us not having an "elite" QB.....


The time for pissing and moaning is gone. And the money is irrelevant because its not your money and it isn't preventing the Bears from doing things with the shit ton of money they do have.

 

[Bort]

I repeat:
Except Stafford can at least claim two seasons that are easily better than Cutler and Alex Smith has been the QB of one of the better teams in football over the last half decade (49-21-1) and has had Rate+ numbers easily over 100 for the last five years. Smith is one of the most efficient and least turnover prone QB's in football.

Call me crazy but I'd expect people to look at Smith's recent production and Stafford's recent production in deciding on their contract than some poor years early on.

Cutler Rate+ with the Bears: 99

Fitzpatrick as a starter: 95

Tangentially, I actually think Stafford is overrated and has inflated numbers. To me, a guy who gets to throw to Calvin Johnson every game of his career should be putting up better numbers than Stafford has over the course of his career.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Cutler's outperformed Carson Wentz last season? No way!

Here's a dumb hypothetical for everyone. Cutler is slated to make $18.765M/yr over the next 4 seasons. If the Bears cut Cutler and then resigned him to a new contract that pays him $19M/yr over the next three seasons, would you be happy with this development since its the "going rate" for an "average" NFL QB?

If Cutler was cut tomorrow, care to venture how much he would get in a deal with another team? He would get what Fitzpatrick is asking.

 

[FirstTimer]

In the grand scheme of things I don't think it has hamstrung the Bears from really doing anything.

This is nuts.

The Bears defense is a cesspool of suck.

Look at some of the free agents available the last few years on defense...you really think that having some of THOSE guys on the roster wouldn't have helped? You really think the Bears wouldn't have made major runs at those players if they had the available cap space?

This is great backtracking by you though.

It's gone from:
The Cutler contract is "going rate"

to now....
He's overpaid! Who cares?! The Bears couldn't have used that salary elsewhere!

 

[didshereallysaythat]

That's not a true "going rate", as many of the young QBs are still working off their non-market value rookie contracts. I would guess that the "going rate" for Mariota, Bortles, Winston & Luck would be more than $6M/year. If you think if/when Andrew Luck becomes a free agent some team is going to sign him to a 5yr/$30M contract, then that's ridiculous.

That's why looking at total money made once they retire is the best and most accurate way to go.

 

[Bort]

I'd say something similar to RGIII. 2 years at $7.5M/yr, $3.5M signing bonus.

You're nuts. The Jets are going to give Fitzpatrick more than that.

 

[FirstTimer]

That's why looking at total money made once they retire is the best and most accurate way to go.

Jay Cutler, not able to be judged until 2030.

Got it.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

As I said earlier...

If the going rate for QB's of Cutler's ilk was so accepted Ryan Fitzpatrick would have been signed on the first day of free agency.

No because teams don't feel that Fitz is on the same level as Cutler.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I repeat:
Except Stafford can at least claim two seasons that are easily better than Cutler and Alex Smith has been the QB of one of the better teams in football over the last half decade (49-21-1) and has had Rate+ numbers easily over 100 for the last five years. Smith is one of the most efficient and least turnover prone QB's in football.

Call me crazy but I'd expect people to look at Smith's recent production and Stafford's recent production in deciding on their contract than some poor years early on.

Cutler Rate+ with the Bears: 99

Fitzpatrick as a starter: 95

You assume that GMs would look at metrics of QBs the same exact way that you do. But there are different ways to measure a QB that they might take into account and subjective measures like the situation that a QB was in and the talent they have.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

People are so caught up in their hatred of Cutler that they can't think straight. It's not worth arguing anymore.

 

[FirstTimer]

You assume that GMs would look at metrics of QBs the same exact way that you do. But there are different ways to measure a QB that they might take into account and subjective measures like the situation that a QB was in and the talent they have.

I was replying to modo's post where he used metrics...

But whatever.

Cutler was marginally productive surrounded by Marshall, Jeffery, Forte, and Bennett. He's been the same guy his entire career regardless of surrounding cast.

Your argument, as per the usual, holds little to no water.