The thing about Robinson's stats is they can't get much better other than TDs. He's averaged 100 catches the last 2 years. Unless he gets 20-30 more targets than he ever has (bad QBs help with # of targets as they're leaning on him when in doubt) then he's not getting much more than 100-110 catches. He's averaged 1200 yards the last 2 years and already has a 1400 yard season in Jacksonville. He said he was focusing on creating more after the catch, even if he does, I don't see much more than 1400. He also had a 14 TD season already w/ a bad QB. So, slim chance he puts up a season that takes his price up.
I also don't know that the cap and TV deal is going to make too much of a difference. Money was still being thrown around this offseason with teams adding void years. If the Bears wanted to have Robinson signed, they could have made it work (not saying they DON'T want him signed). I think the bigger issue with WRs is that there are so many good ones coming out in the draft every year. There's a decision to make to pay a top guy 20M vs. a guy on a rookie deal in a league where the top guys like Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Cooper, etc. have been traded and guys like Jefferson, Ridley, DK and McLaurin are putting up similar numbers on rookie contracts.
Bears have plenty of leverage and used some of it by showing interest in Golladay to get Robinson to sign his tag.