Robinson unlikely to be extended before deadline

[playthrough2001]

It doesn't matter though, because as I said....those guys aren't available. You can't say, "Well Allen, Tyreke Hill only makes 17Mil and he's better than you, so we won't pay you more than 17Mil." Hell, you think Jefferson is better. You gonna try to pay Robinson less than a rookie contract?

Age, health, and projection are real factors.....which is where your list of who's better is flawed. You included guys who haven't been healthy, guys who only have 1 year of production up to Robinson's standard that he has shown pre and post a torn ACL and with various levels of terrible QB play.

I never said anything about trying to pay him less than a rookie. The list helps determine where he fits against other impact receivers. It helps an organization place a value on him. It’s a piece of the puzzle like age, health and a projection of future production.

If I think he’s not a top ten receiver, is it worth paying him like he’s top 5 based on market realities?

 

[rawdawg]

I never said anything about trying to pay him less than a rookie. The list helps determine where he fits against other impact receivers. It helps an organization place a value on him. It’s a piece of the puzzle like age, health and a projection of future production.

If I think he’s not a top ten receiver, is it worth paying him like he’s top 5 based on market realities?

But that line of thinking is flawed, because things don't work that way. Like dude said, Lamar Jackson is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd highest paid QB. He's not the 2nd or 3rd best QB. But the Ravens can't let him walk because he's only 9th best or something. And I understand QB is not the same as WR. But the alternative to not paying your guy is the same.

For the Ravens, it's pay the 9th best QB the 3rd most money, or draft another QB and hope he develops into one of the top 9. For the Bears, it's pay a top 15 WR (I think he's top 10 but whatever) top 5 money, or with no 1st round pick probably pay a FA top 50 money, but you're probably also getting the 40-50th best WR as well. Granted, it's easier to get by with rookie or top 50 WR production than it is with non top 10 QB production, but the point remains that you have to consider the alternatives.

And for the record, I agree with your previous comment. I have said all along that the Bears have played this situation well. They have the franchise tag at their disposal. No reason NOT to use it just because it makes a player feel disrespected. If they tag him again, paying him 40M in 2 years is far from disrespectful. That's probably about what he would have been guaranteed if the Bears re-signed him long-term in March. Except this way doesn't negatively effect the Bears in future years like a 5-year deal would w/ dead money and so forth.

So, I'm not really arguing that ARob should get paid whatever he wants. Just arguing that your reasoning of him not being a top 5 WR so he shouldn't get paid like one is not a good reason.

 

[playthrough2001]

But that line of thinking is flawed, because things don't work that way. Like dude said, Lamar Jackson is probably going to be the 2nd or 3rd highest paid QB. He's not the 2nd or 3rd best QB. But the Ravens can't let him walk because he's only 9th best or something. And I understand QB is not the same as WR. But the alternative to not paying your guy is the same.

For the Ravens, it's pay the 9th best QB the 3rd most money, or draft another QB and hope he develops into one of the top 9. For the Bears, it's pay a top 15 WR (I think he's top 10 but whatever) top 5 money, or with no 1st round pick probably pay a FA top 50 money, but you're probably also getting the 40-50th best WR as well. Granted, it's easier to get by with rookie or top 50 WR production than it is with non top 10 QB production, but the point remains that you have to consider the alternatives.

And for the record, I agree with your previous comment. I have said all along that the Bears have played this situation well. They have the franchise tag at their disposal. No reason NOT to use it just because it makes a player feel disrespected. If they tag him again, paying him 40M in 2 years is far from disrespectful. That's probably about what he would have been guaranteed if the Bears re-signed him long-term in March. Except this way doesn't negatively effect the Bears in future years like a 5-year deal would w/ dead money and so forth.

So, I'm not really arguing that ARob should get paid whatever he wants. Just arguing that your reasoning of him not being a top 5 WR so he shouldn't get paid like one is not a good reason.

I agree with most of what you posted. There is no question I would be more flexible in my thinking on how I would value and pay a QB vs a WR. If Fields delivers, I’ll be one of the loudest voices yelling “pay the man.”

 

[dabears70]

Chicago Bears: Matt Nagy is behind the Allen Robinson contract situation

It's been a mystery as to why Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace has not yet extended Allen Robinson. To know why, look no further than head coach Matt Nagy.

dawindycity.com

 

[bears26]

The good thing is if Fields does well (and I believe he is going to be great), other top WRs will want to come play with him. I like Allen Robinson a lot but I would be hesitant as well to give him a large contract. Just let it play out.

 

[dabears70]

The good thing is if Fields does well (and I believe he is going to be great), other top WRs will want to come play with him. I like Allen Robinson a lot but I would be hesitant as well to give him a large contract. Just let it play out.

The thing for me is if their plan is to replace him with a WR in next years free agency that fits more of what Nagy wants (speed) is that there's very few that are as good or better than ARob in next years free agency with D.Adams (no way GB lets him go) and C.Godwin leading the way. There's other WR's i really like in next years free agency, it's actually a really strong year for free agent WR's, like C.Sutton who i really like but after him they're all downgrades from ARob. I like W.Fuller and think he'd be a great fit with Mooney on the other side but he's been so injury prone his entire career. I like Robby Anderson but he's inconsistent as hell. There's a lot of them that will be out there besides the ones i named but aren't #1 type WR's.

 

[bears26]

The thing for me is if their plan is to replace him with a WR in next years free agency that fits more of what Nagy wants (speed) is that there's very few that are as good or better than ARob in next years free agency with D.Adams (no way GB lets him go) and C.Godwin leading the way. There's other WR's i really like in next years free agency, it's actually a really strong year for free agent WR's, like C.Sutton who i really like but after him they're all downgrades from ARob. I like W.Fuller and think he'd be a great fit with Mooney on the other side but he's been so injury prone his entire career. I like Robby Anderson but he's inconsistent as hell. There's a lot of them that will be out there besides the ones i named but aren't #1 type WR's.

Yeah, I am not against extending him at all. It just does not look like it is going to happen. The tag is still in play next year, though at a higher cost. I do think Mooney has the potential to be a Tyreek Hill type of player for the Bears with his route running skills. It is going to be all about Fields moving forward and he will make receivers look better than they are.

 

[Toast88]

"Who knows what he's truly asking for, but I'm not sure Robinson is worth $25 mil a year."

"Oh my God, why do you hate Allen Robinson? Have fun with Mooney as your #1, cheap-ass."

 

[rawdawg]

The thing for me is if their plan is to replace him with a WR in next years free agency that fits more of what Nagy wants (speed) is that there's very few that are as good or better than ARob in next years free agency with D.Adams (no way GB lets him go) and C.Godwin leading the way. There's other WR's i really like in next years free agency, it's actually a really strong year for free agent WR's, like C.Sutton who i really like but after him they're all downgrades from ARob. I like W.Fuller and think he'd be a great fit with Mooney on the other side but he's been so injury prone his entire career. I like Robby Anderson but he's inconsistent as hell. There's a lot of them that will be out there besides the ones i named but aren't #1 type WR's.

Seems weird that Nagy would want more speed instead of Robinson, when the team's first big FA signing after they hired him was Robinson coming off an ACL tear. Could have gone after Sammy Watkins if that's the case.

But yeah, I think the plan would be for 2 to replace 1 Robinson. Even if they keep Robinson, they'll need more WR help. All they have is Mooney and Newsome under contract. Newsome probably will be 6th WR at best this year, and was a late pick so temper expectations. So, even with Robinson, I could see them going after a slot WR in the draft or free agency again. I can see them going for a solid 3WR set with no true #1 but a lot of vertical speed similar to what Houston and Carolina had. Someone like Gallup, Fuller or Anderson who would cost about 1/2 of what Robinson will + an early pick in the draft, possibly trading up into the late 1st for one of Fields' Ohio State teammates.

 

[DC]

It definitely happened against the Giants and Falcons. I’m pretty sure you’re right on there being a third one too.

IIRC, they all happened at critical times in a game which caused our classic CCS meltdown reaction, myself included.

 

[DC]

Yeah, I am not against extending him at all. It just does not look like it is going to happen. The tag is still in play next year, though at a higher cost. I do think Mooney has the potential to be a Tyreek Hill type of player for the Bears with his route running skills. It is going to be all about Fields moving forward and he will make receivers look better than they are.

Whatever bro. The bigger question is are YOU ready for July 27th? Our F5 fingers have been banging 10s all off-season in preparation for you and your incredible interwebz skills.

Bring that shit and stay hydrated.

 

[dabears70]

Seems weird that Nagy would want more speed instead of Robinson, when the team's first big FA signing after they hired him was Robinson coming off an ACL tear. Could have gone after Sammy Watkins if that's the case.

But yeah, I think the plan would be for 2 to replace 1 Robinson. Even if they keep Robinson, they'll need more WR help. All they have is Mooney and Newsome under contract. Newsome probably will be 6th WR at best this year, and was a late pick so temper expectations. So, even with Robinson, I could see them going after a slot WR in the draft or free agency again. I can see them going for a solid 3WR set with no true #1 but a lot of vertical speed similar to what Houston and Carolina had. Someone like Gallup, Fuller or Anderson who would cost about 1/2 of what Robinson will + an early pick in the draft, possibly trading up into the late 1st for one of Fields' Ohio State teammates.

I actually forgot that Gallup could hit UFA next offseason as well and would love to get him. I'd actually put him right next to Sutton and would love to get Gallup and W.Fuller or Gallup and maybe Mike Williams (San Diego) so we still have that big go up and get it WR.

Other good options that will be out there.
DJ Chark
J.Crowder--one of the best Slot WR's in the league.
JuJu--Also a good slot WR

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I actually forgot that Gallup could hit UFA next offseason as well and would love to get him. I'd actually put him right next to Sutton and would love to get Gallup and W.Fuller or Gallup and maybe Mike Williams (San Diego) so we still have that big go up and get it WR.

Other good options that will be out there.
DJ Chark
J.Crowder--one of the best Slot WR's in the league.
JuJu--Also a good slot WR

I'm assuming they'll sign a guy and draft a guy

 

[remydat]

Seems weird that Nagy would want more speed instead of Robinson, when the team's first big FA signing after they hired him was Robinson coming off an ACL tear. Could have gone after Sammy Watkins if that's the case.

But yeah, I think the plan would be for 2 to replace 1 Robinson. Even if they keep Robinson, they'll need more WR help. All they have is Mooney and Newsome under contract. Newsome probably will be 6th WR at best this year, and was a late pick so temper expectations. So, even with Robinson, I could see them going after a slot WR in the draft or free agency again. I can see them going for a solid 3WR set with no true #1 but a lot of vertical speed similar to what Houston and Carolina had. Someone like Gallup, Fuller or Anderson who would cost about 1/2 of what Robinson will + an early pick in the draft, possibly trading up into the late 1st for one of Fields' Ohio State teammates.

The gap between Watkins and ARob is probably greater than the gap between ARob and some of the speedier options next year. Not to mention the price tag is a lot different. ARob's AAV was 8% of the cap in 2018. Given him 20-25m a yar would represent 11 to 13.7% of the 2021 cap. So probably better to wait until the cap hopefully goes up significantly next year.

 

[abegibronlives]

Robinson has made it fairly clear that Chicago is not where he wants to be, and the only way he was gonna stay here was if the Bears significantly overpaid for his services. That would have been dumb.

Use him this season, thank him for his time here, and let him move on to wherever he thinks he'll be happier. It's not like there's another choice for the Bears anyway.

 

[Mdbearz]

The thing about Robinson's stats is they can't get much better other than TDs. He's averaged 100 catches the last 2 years. Unless he gets 20-30 more targets than he ever has (bad QBs help with # of targets as they're leaning on him when in doubt) then he's not getting much more than 100-110 catches. He's averaged 1200 yards the last 2 years and already has a 1400 yard season in Jacksonville. He said he was focusing on creating more after the catch, even if he does, I don't see much more than 1400. He also had a 14 TD season already w/ a bad QB. So, slim chance he puts up a season that takes his price up.

I also don't know that the cap and TV deal is going to make too much of a difference. Money was still being thrown around this offseason with teams adding void years. If the Bears wanted to have Robinson signed, they could have made it work (not saying they DON'T want him signed). I think the bigger issue with WRs is that there are so many good ones coming out in the draft every year. There's a decision to make to pay a top guy 20M vs. a guy on a rookie deal in a league where the top guys like Hopkins, Julio, Diggs, Cooper, etc. have been traded and guys like Jefferson, Ridley, DK and McLaurin are putting up similar numbers on rookie contracts.

Bears have plenty of leverage and used some of it by showing interest in Golladay to get Robinson to sign his tag.

Great points!! If you are right, and Robinson does have another great year but doesn't have his best season, he is still going to be a super hot commodity this off season. He is going to get paid, and to me he is the kind of player you want to spend a little extra on..... The way this is all playing out, someone with a ton of cap space is going to land him OR he will go to the team that has a real shot of winning a title, and he will be the final piece to put them over the top......

My hope is that Fields get a shot and impresses all of us, including Robinson. Then the Bears and his camp find a middle ground with the contract, and he wants to stay because he likes his chances for a title

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Robinson was seeking $20M per year on a long-term deal and Chicago was at the range of about $16M, which is $4M a year off. Ouch. (Chris Emma)

 

[HansGruber]

He is NOT worth 20 million a year,its laughable he wants that much

 

[Nelly]

He is NOT worth 20 million a year,its laughable he wants that much

Amari Cooper got it and is he really a better receiver? Similar stats, just Robinson in a much worse situation and he still put up those numbers.

 

[remydat]

Amari Cooper got it and is he really a better receiver? Similar stats, just Robinson in a much worse situation and he still put up those numbers.

Cooper wasnt worth it either and his performance since signing has proved it.

Robinson has made it fairly clear that Chicago is not where he wants to be, and the only way he was gonna stay here was if the Bears significantly overpaid for his services. That would have been dumb.

Use him this season, thank him for his time here, and let him move on to wherever he thinks he'll be happier. It's not like there's another choice for the Bears anyway.

Eh wouldnt put much stock into anything pre-Fields. Let's see how he feels after this year.