Should the Cubs deal Castro?

[brett05]

Hasn't he been batting 7th/8th for the past few games? Is he hurt or something?

 

[KBisBack!]

Castro down to .240 now in the 8th inning of the game against the Reds. He is going ridiculously bad right now.

If indeed the Cubs are trying to change his approach, it clearly isn't working.

He is seeing more pitches per at bat but that has translated to his lowest walk percentage and highest strikeout rate of his career.

 

[The Bandit]

This is pretty brutal, he is now batting below what Albert Pujols is batting.

 

[KBisBack!]

This is pretty brutal, he is now batting below what Albert Pujols is batting.

As well as 1700 hits, 450 HR's, 7 All Star Games, 3 MVPS and one reserved place in Cooperstown behind.

Genius comparison.

 

[The Bandit]

As well as 1700 hits, 450 HR's, 7 All Star Games, 3 MVPS and one reserved place in Cooperstown behind.

Genius comparison.

I can see that sarcasm meter in your head doesn't work. But just for the hell of it. Guess what? None of those accolades mean anything when saying that Pujols is batting .242 in the season of 2013 and Castro is batting .240 in the year 2013. It was a joke, pull up your big boy pants, and stop wining and crying.

 

[dabears253313]

As well as 1700 hits, 450 HR's, 7 All Star Games, 3 MVPS and one reserved place in Cooperstown behind.

Genius comparison.

Oh, so now we are talking about the past and not the present?

 

[KBisBack!]

Oh, so now we are talking about the past and not the present?

Actually we were talking about the present "superstar" shortstop performing at a unacceptable sub standard level before a couple of crybabies came whining because they can't accept the truth.

 

[patg006]

Oh, so now we are talking about the past and not the present?

You wanna talk present?

10 HR, 37 RBIs, 25 BBs, 34 Ks, 312 OBP, 419 SLG, 731 OPS, and fuck--even though its a loaded, flawwed stat a 1 WAR

Or

3 HR, 22 RBI, 11BBs, 46 Ks, 283 OBP, 319 SLG, 624 OPS, and a -.4 WAR

Yeah--still gonna take Pujols.

Thanks for playing!

 

[The Bandit]

You wanna talk present?

10 HR, 37 RBIs, 25 BBs, 34 Ks, 312 OBP, 419 SLG, 731 OPS, and fuck--even though its a loaded, flawwed stat a 1 WAR

Or

3 HR, 22 RBI, 11BBs, 46 Ks, 283 OBP, 319 SLG, 624 OPS, and a -.4 WAR

Yeah--still gonna take Pujols.

Thanks for playing!

Now look at the salaries of each. Both teams are getting hosed, but the Angels are taking it twice a day and 3 times on Sunday

 

[The Bandit]

Actually we were talking about the present "superstar" shortstop performing at a unacceptable sub standard level before a couple of crybabies came whining because they can't accept the truth.

He isn't a superstar nor was he when he made the all star team. He can be, but so far he's not.

 

[Boobaby1]

He isn't a superstar nor was he when he made the all star team. He can be, but so far he's not.

He won't be. Cubs fans need to realize this. He doesn't have the make up to be a Superstar. Look at Jeter, Tulo, and a host of others. It is beyond laughable to ever put Castro in that conversation.

He is an average defensive shortstop, an impatient hitter who has minimal power, who probably at best may get close to being a .285 to .290 lifetime hitter. That is Castro in my opinion, and I don't care how young he is.

It is what it is.

 

[SilenceS]

He won't be. Cubs fans need to realize this. He doesn't have the make up to be a Superstar. Look at Jeter, Tulo, and a host of others. It is beyond laughable to ever put Castro in that conversation.

He is an average defensive shortstop, an impatient hitter who has minimal power, who probably at best may get close to being a .285 to .290 lifetime hitter. That is Castro in my opinion, and I don't care how young he is.

It is what it is.

I get what you are saying and I dont think he is a superstar at all but I think you are still a little short sided on him. I dont think he will just be an average shortstop, He does have the ability to be great but so do a lot of players. I dont think he will ever get there. But, I do think he can be a top 5 to7 shortstop in this league for a long time.

 

[CSF77]

Unless he can get his D towards the top end his slacking at the plate will cause his stock to drop.

SS is a D position on the field. any O is build on top of that vs in Lieu of it.

At this point his stock is falling and he needs to get it together.

 

[kchicub08]

But we still have Darwin Barney....:elephant:

 

[SilenceS]

But we still have Darwin Barney....:elephant:

Now, he is a monster in the making!!!!!!!!!!!! haha

 

[KBisBack!]

Now look at the salaries of each.

Who cares.

Totally ignorant attempt.

Both teams are getting hosed, but the Angels are taking it twice a day and 3 times on Sunday

And yet the Angels have a better record.

So are the Cubs taking it three times a day and 4 times on Sunday?

 

[patg006]

Now look at the salaries of each. Both teams are getting hosed, but the Angels are taking it twice a day and 3 times on Sunday

Except the cubs can pay Pujol's salary twice a day and 3 times on Sunday.......And Fielder's. And Cliff Lee's. Something about being a top revenue team that can spend but wont because the word 'both' doesnt exist in their dictionary.

 

[X]

Who cares.

Totally ignorant attempt.


And yet the Angels have a better record.

So are the Cubs taking it three times a day and 4 times on Sunday?

He was being sarcastic. who gives an F about the Angels?



At this point, trading Castro would be dumb. His value is lower now than it's ever been. Buy Low, Sell High.

 

[SilenceS]

Really good read on Castro, I believe a lot in what this is saying.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20899

Last week, Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer appeared on Buster Olney's podcast. The pair discussed a variety of Cubs-related topics, spending a chunk of time on the organization's new emphasis on plate discipline. Historically the Cubs have operated without great concern for discipline or walks, Hoyer explained, and as a result some of the inherited players are struggling to adjust to the new definition of a quality at-bat, which puts their jobs at risk. Olney smartly followed up with a question about Starlin Castro—an inherited player with a substandard walk rate—to which Hoyer replied with a vote of confidence by saying, "He does need to improve his plate discipline over time. I think he will." Hoyer added, "He'll figure out the on-base thing."

Whether Castro, or any player, can figure out the on-base thing is an endless debate without an apparent answer. In Castro's case there's cause for skepticism. This is his fourth season in the majors, after all, and he's still in search of his first season in which he walks in more than 6 percent of his plate appearances. In fact, his career-high walk rate came in his rookie season, as a 20-year-old. Thus far this year Castro is walking and striking out at what would be career-worst rates, although that isn't too surprising considering many of his rate stats are in the same boat. So there's absolutely reason to think Castro is not figuring out the on-base thing anytime soon.

But then maybe there is. Hoyer kept things vanilla in defending Castro, citing the shortstop's age and hands, as well as hitting coach James Rowson—whom the Cubs hired away from the Yankees after the 2011 season. (Let the record show Rowson talks the good talk, be it about attacking the strike zone or Castro in particular.) So much of quantifying plate discipline is choosing the parameters. Those walk rates cited above paint an ugly picture of Castro's education at the plate. Pick another set of numbers and the answer varies. For instance: He's seeing more pitches per plate appearances, and working himself into more hitter's counts than before. This season he's worked 25 3-1 counts and 12 3-0 counts; last season he saw 38 and 26 all season long.

The PITCHf/x-generated plate discipline stats tell of Castro swinging at a career-low 21 percent of the first pitches he's seen this season. He's also expanding his zone less often, and swinging less in general relative to the two seasons beforehand. Of course these are almost imperceptible differences tied to one or two swings per 100 taken. Those experiencing Castro day in and day out wouldn't notice.

Season


Swing%


O-Swing%


Z-Swing%

2010


47.7%


33.0%


61.5%

2011


48.9%


33.3%


63.8%

2012


49.6%


34.1%


64.9%

2013


47.9%


32.1%


64.0%

Yet those watching Castro daily would notice how he is not the stereotypical hacker who swings at anything and everything, from his eyebrows to his toenails, from his hip to his shadow's lip. Catch Castro during the right segment of the at-bat and he'll appear to be a disciplined hitter, perhaps one bordering on passivity. Catch him during the wrong segment and he'll look like the world's worst hacker. There is a pattern to these behavioral shifts, one made apparent by Ryan Lind's data crunching. Lind's product shows Castro's aggressiveness increases with the strike count. No surprise there. What does surprise is the degree of its increases, which can be compared to the league's other hitters using an OPS+-like metric that, for these purposes, is called SWING+:

Split


0-Strike Swing Rt


1-Strike Swing Rt


2-Strike Swing Rt

Castro '13


27.2%


54.7%


74.5%

Rest of League '13


31.1%


51.6%


60.8%

'13 SWING+


87


106


123

'12 SWING+


86


106


122

This season Castro is less likely to swing on no-strike counts than the league-average, slightly more likely to swing on one-strike counts, and a lot more likely to take the bat off his shoulder with a two-strike count. Just as he was last season. So if Castro has progressed in his plate discipline it's not showing through this prism. Still, Castro's case becomes more intriguing with further context. When questioned, Sam Miller named Brandon Belt as a hitter with a "very disciplined" approach. Belt's infield partner, Pablo Sandoval, is a world-renowned bad-ball hitter with swing-happy tendencies. Thus creating the perfect spectrum of plate discipline:

Split


0-Strike SWING+


1-Strike SWING+


2-Strike SWING+

Belt


135


107


99

Sandoval


168


125


108

Compare these numbers to Castro and he comes out as a more passive/disciplined hitter in the first two stages than the hand-picked disciplined hitter, yet somehow more aggressive in two-strike counts than the hand-picked wild thing. Before delving into why that could be, consider one other piece of context: Castro's numbers compared to the other players with the league's 10 lowest walk rates through 250-plus plate appearances. Once again Castro comes out looking passive/disciplined in the early going, then overly aggressive late:

Player


BB%


0-Strike SWING+


1-Strike SWING+


2-Strike Swing+

Adam Jones


2.9%


130


123


117

Alcides Escobar


3.1%


108


116


117

Zack Cozart


4.0%


99


91


102

Alexei Ramirez


4.0%


120


132


111

Starlin Castro


4.2%


87


106


123

Jean Segura


4.2%


94


113


119

Starling Marte


4.4%


108


114


109

Manny Machado


4.8%


100


85


101

Howard Kendrick


5.0%


106


116


116

J.J. Hardy


5.0%


66


106


103

There are at least three theories as to why Castro chooses to shift gears, the first being he cannot recognize the off-speed pitches that come out to finish at-bats. A cursory glance at his tendencies earlier in the count suggest this is probably not the case. Another theory is that he hates to strike out. Plausible, as no player enjoys going down on strikes. The final explanation feels like the most likely: He lets his innate ability get the best of him.

Castro is a tremendous natural hitter with a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, possessing that kind of skill can work against a player by coercing him to expand his zone and offer at poor pitches. He's not swinging over that slider or changeup falling beneath the zone; he's hitting them into the ground. Sometimes his efforts result in hits, more often they result in outs. Below is a great example of how Castro might hurt himself. The pitch is a 3-2 changeup that might've been called ball four anyway—especially since the catcher dropped his knee during the delivery—but Castro swings and gets the barrel on the pitch, and winds up reaching on a single.

While that swing is part of Castro's problem, it's also part of the tough task ahead for Rowson and the Cubs. They do need to work with him to improve his walk rate and pitch selection. At the same time, stripping him of the ability to expand the zone late in counts could work against them, as part of Castro's specialness is being able to turn a b-hack on a pitch tailing out of the zone into a hit. The key is to work with him to tighten his zone outside of the zone. If Castro can do that—and keep in mind he shows the aptitude to do so earlier in counts—then he'd make Hoyer's confidence appear well-placed, and if he does figure out the on-base thing then the Cubs will have one of the game's most gifted and well-rounded hitters.

 

[KBisBack!]

and if he does figure out the on-base thing then the Cubs will have one of the game's most gifted and well-rounded hitters.

But he isn't figuring it out.

Like I pointed out before, he is seeing more pitches than he has ever seen before.

He is walking less than ever before, and he never walked much to begin with so it is hard to get even worse in that category, yet he has.

He is striking out more than before.

His numbers across the board are career worsts and in some categories way, way, way worse.

If they are trying to change him they need to stop and stop immediately and let him go back to what was natural and what made him a .300 hitter his first two seasons even if it goes against the "Cubs Way".

I'd really like to take a dump on that handbook right now.