Sources: Cubs pursuing Pujols, Fielder

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AddisonStation

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Captain Obvious said:
I'm gonna play the disagree card here. Let's say he gets 250 million, which is the high end. That means that he will be getting 25/year, or 5 wins/year. That means he needs to have 50 WAR over the life of the contract. I don't think that that is unreasonable to expect at all. I think that they would be smarter to front load it, but it doesn't really matter, as you're paying for the production through out the contract. I see the 5 million per win rate going up too, with the new CBA. I see no reason he can't put up 50 WAR over the rest of his career.
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Ehhh...let's keep in mind he slipped by his standards this year, which was still beastly. What if he's not really 31? What if he get seriously injured? Fair questions.
 

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Rice Cube said:
Aren't we optimistic...

Let's pretend for a moment that Pujols' 2011 was a fluke. He was worth 5.4 rWAR. Previously he was at least a 7 rWAR player so let's pretend he'll start with 7 rWAR in 2012.

Pujols is not a machine. He is human. He will get older and start to suck (for him anyway). You have to decrease his projected production for each year going forward.

2012 7 WAR
2013 6.5 WAR
2014 6 WAR
2015 5.5 WAR
2016 5 WAR
2017 4.5 WAR
2018 4 WAR
2019 3.5 WAR
2020 3 WAR
2021 2.5 WAR

So that would give you about 47.5 WAR if you just assume he'll depreciate at a steady half-win per season. The problem is that once you get past a certain age, the production really starts to drop, so it's unlikely that even a player as great as Pujols will be able to get those 47.5 WAR. That's a crazy gamble to make. And it's a lot easier to do it when you're an armchair GM than when it's your money that's about to be set on fire after 2016 or so.
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I use fWAR, just because fangraphs is my main site and I know that fWAR = 5 MM/year while I think rWAR is a bit different.

Hank Aaron posted 60 WAR from 32-42. I don't think that Pujols will regress in the way that you think it will. I think he will be a little more like Aaron where it will be steady till about 37, then he will kind of fall off a cliff. However, I don't think that 50 WAR is unreasonable at all and do we really think that Albert will get 250 MM? I don't. It's probably closer to 225, which means he only needs 45 WAR.

I think that there is a great cause of concern with Pujols' injury history. However, I don't think that his contract is something he won't live up to.
 

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The main differences in fWAR and rWAR is the inputs. I use rWAR because fWAR uses UZR which is much too volatile for my tastes. Regardless, any team giving Pujols that much money is very likely to be happy with him for about four years and then regretting the other six.
 
AddisonStation

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Captain Obvious said:
I use fWAR, just because fangraphs is my main site and I know that fWAR = 5 MM/year while I think rWAR is a bit different.

Hank Aaron posted 60 WAR from 32-42. I don't think that Pujols will regress in the way that you think it will. I think he will be a little more like Aaron where it will be steady till about 37, then he will kind of fall off a cliff. However, I don't think that 50 WAR is unreasonable at all and do we really think that Albert will get 250 MM? I don't. It's probably closer to 225, which means he only needs 45 WAR.

I think that there is a great cause of concern with Pujols' injury history. However, I don't think that his contract is something he won't live up to.
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Im just horrified of injuries in a mega deal like this. You are absolutely screwed if he goes down a few times throughout the deal for extended periods...
 
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While Pujols reportedly was contemplating a 10-year offer worth more than $200 million from the Marlins on Tuesday, the Cubs were believed to have made an offer in the same salary range but at far fewer years. It's a way to keep in the game without overextending their budget but made them decided long shots at signing the slugger.

The same strategy would apply to Fielder, who theoretically could agree to a shorter deal than Pujols, knowing it likely wouldn't be his final contract.

The Cubs' ace in the hole with Fielder is manager Dale Sveum, who would be involved in recruiting his friend from the Brewers. Sveum said he had no knowledge of the Cubs' pursuit of Fielder but acknowledged he probably would be part of the process if it gets to that point.
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Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs trying to position themselves - chicagotribune.com

I want Fielder for the sole reason of not wanting Pena back or seeing AAAA player Bryan LaHair get PT, which the article suggests. I would like Sanchez if the Cubs can get him in the right deal if the Marlins overpay for Pujols.

If the Cubs aren't gonna spend on a 1st baseman, I hope they sign Edwin Jackson or Hiroki Kuroda
 
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Honestly, I hope he stays w/ the Cardinals. Can't imagine him in those hideous Marlins uniforms
 

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I think it'd help if both Fielder and Pujols went out of division.
 
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My favorite teams
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Money will make people do stupid things :yep:
 
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Really surprised at this
Consensus of most baseball people is that Marlins will end up w/ a significantly better offer on the table; but Pujols will resign w/Cards
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