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Castro will represent the Cubs.. end of story
opcorn:
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I'll ask again... Why shouldn't Garza be an all-star?
The short answer is that while he has a ridiculous FIP, the balls that he allows in play are finding their way into hits at a high clip that might be unsustainable at that rate, but the fact that he's giving up lots of hard-hit line drives may be contributing to the high BABIP. He's had pretty good luck on fly balls staying in the park so far as well, and he seems to have changed his approach to induce more grounders, which tend not to go for home runs.
Despite his high FIP and fWAR, the fact that he is getting hit hard means that he's not as good as the numbers say he is. The ERA is also a function of his leaky infield and bad defense by the Cubs letting balls drop for hits. He's not as bad as his ERA says he is, but he's also not as good as his FIP suggests. And that's why he won't be considered an All-Star even if the dinosaurs who look at ERA and W/L record weren't in control of selecting pitchers.
As a comparison, here is a list of the top pitchers sorted by WAR in the NL so far:
National League Leaderboards
You can make a much more compelling case for all of the ones above Garza than you could for Garza himself. Even Tim Lincecum. You're going to have to stretch quite a bit to argue Garza onto the team.
My guess is that the Cubs rep is going to be either Castro or Marmol. But again, I think it'd be badass if Zambrano got in, although his case is probably just as hard to justify as Garza's would be.
One should never use WAR as a basis for a debate on whether or not a player should or should not be in an all star game. WAR is not a stat for one, and is also way too subjective. Allthough Saber heads and wanna be saber heads live by WAR, most of them dont even understand the specifics behind this hole filled metric.
The way it's set up is standardized though. I agree with you that WAR is not the end-all, and it has its flaws (there's a huge discrepancy sometimes between fWAR and rWAR) but for quickie comparisons, I'm okay with using it. But I see your point.
I think Castro has a real good shot, I'm rooting for him. I hope he continues to have a nice career with the Cubs.
As long as they don't give him too much crap for his rookie mistakes and allow him to eat dinner, I'm sure he'll be okay.
With no shut-down closers in the NL,
The short answer is that while he has a ridiculous FIP, the balls that he allows in play are finding their way into hits at a high clip that might be unsustainable at that rate, but the fact that he's giving up lots of hard-hit line drives may be contributing to the high BABIP. He's had pretty good luck on fly balls staying in the park so far as well, and he seems to have changed his approach to induce more grounders, which tend not to go for home runs.
Despite his high FIP and fWAR, the fact that he is getting hit hard means that he's not as good as the numbers say he is. The ERA is also a function of his leaky infield and bad defense by the Cubs letting balls drop for hits. He's not as bad as his ERA says he is, but he's also not as good as his FIP suggests. And that's why he won't be considered an All-Star even if the dinosaurs who look at ERA and W/L record weren't in control of selecting pitchers.