Starlin Castro's Error Tracker (2014 Edition!)

[MRubio52]

you have just described the less than 5% of errors that I stated in the previous post were not no doubt, clear cut errors. now that we have established that a ridiculously large percentage of errors are exactly that, errors by the player and not the scorekeeper, we can move on and not completely discard a stat because of am extremely small amount of subjectiveness. i mean there are some close calls on called third strikes that can go either way, so I guess we should just eliminate the strikeout stat also right?

I'm not talking about errors, I'm talking about all plays and I would like to see where your data is on the 5%.

 

[diavolos]

I'm not talking about errors, I'm talking about all plays and I would like to see where your data is on the 5%.

id like to see your data that errors should be completely discounted when considering a players defensive ability. even if 7% of errors are plays that could go either way, it is still an overwhelming minority of plays that are left to subjectivity and not obvious conclusions that you want to throw away the entire system over.

 

[MRubio52]

id like to see your data that errors should be completely discounted when considering a players defensive ability. even if 7% of errors are plays that could go either way, it is still an overwhelming minority of plays that are left to subjectivity and not obvious conclusions that you want to throw away the entire system over.

System has been more or less overturned in that regard by people a lot smarter than I am. Errors are pretty devalued as a statstic in the upper echelons.

Here's a sampling:

http://www.browndailyherald.com/201...g-percentage-and-error-dont-tell-whole-story/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/defens...-uncertainty-and-the-problem-with-regression/

I mean, there's a lot more than this. I think on the whole the stat community has moved on from the error/fielding percentage/range factor tree into more analytics based stuff. I like marrying the two, the data and the eye test when I can. Failing that I want to read reports on defense.

Again, this isn't about throwing away the error, this is about expanding our critical thinking to reduce our reliance on one number to determine how good or poor a player is at defense. There are more things to take into account and the simplification you're bringing about. Defense is multi faceted.

 

[diavolos]

Again, this isn't about throwing away the error, this is about expanding our critical thinking to reduce our reliance on one number to determine how good or poor a player is at defense. There are more things to take into account and the simplification you're bringing about. Defense is multi faceted.

no one reduced the determining factor of a players total defensive worth to one number, just pointed out the ridiculousness of eliminating one number from the equation based on an overwhelming minority of subjectiveness.

 

[brett05]

I'm torn between laughing at the insanity of this, but then again, loving how cool this is.

 

[SilenceS]

It's all gonna be true.


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[brett05]

It's all gonna be true.


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Hahahaha

Tho there is no crime to drink kool aid

Go Alexei! !

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[SilenceS]

I was being dumb. The hits are gonna pile up over the years.


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[brett05]

I was being dumb. The hits are gonna pile up over the years.


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it might...Odds are severely against

 

[SilenceS]

it might...Odds are severely against

Of course health against any player, but not many people in history have had as many hits as Castro by the age of 24. He has 743 already. HE has shown to not get hurt. Time will tell.

 

[Boobaby1]

With the Mets looking for a cost controlled SS, and the Cubs desperate for young pitching talent, I wouldn't mind a swap of Castro, for a package headlined or with Noah Syndergaard in it.

 

[beckdawg]

With the Mets looking for a cost controlled SS, and the Cubs desperate for young pitching talent, I wouldn't mind a swap of Castro, for a package headlined by Noah Syndergaard.

This was the type of deal I mentioned during the offseason as a possibility. If that sort of deal becomes available then I think you consider it especially how stingy teams appear to be with top of the rotation starters these days. I get people's hesitance and I'm not saying it's a slam dunk you'd do it but it is the type of deal that appears to make sense for both sides assuming the cubs think Baez will stick at SS long term. We obviously don't know how the cubs feel about Noah but personally he'd be one of my most desirable top pitching candidates because he's high k rate(9+ per 9) and a pretty good BB rate(been between 2 and 2.69 per 9 the last 3 years) though it's up a bit in AAA this year.

I would however worry about doing this before Baez hits the majors and shows he is the real deal because if for whatever reason Baez busts then you just created a big hole at SS with nothing that impressive in the system. So, you solve one issue(TOR pitcher) but create another.

 

[brett05]

With the Mets looking for a cost controlled SS, and the Cubs desperate for young pitching talent, I wouldn't mind a swap of Castro, for a package headlined or with Noah Syndergaard in it.

It'll take more from the Cubs

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[MRubio52]

no one reduced the determining factor of a players total defensive worth to one number, just pointed out the ridiculousness of eliminating one number from the equation based on an overwhelming minority of subjectiveness.

I'm pretty sure I said it should be reduced as a means of evaluation because the number is so very, very flawed.

 

[MRubio52]

With the Mets looking for a cost controlled SS, and the Cubs desperate for young pitching talent, I wouldn't mind a swap of Castro, for a package headlined or with Noah Syndergaard in it.

I don't think the Mets want to give up either Wheeler or Syndergaard.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think the Mets want to give up either Wheeler or Syndergaard.

In fairness, I don't think the cubs want to give up Shark. However, to get quality players you generally have to give up quality players. Maybe they could get a lessor player for less but if you're giving up B or C level prospects you're going to be getting a B or C level player. Castro is also a great age range for a lot of their younger players. Travis d'Amaud is 25. Wheeler is 24. Harvey is 25. So, Castro being 24 fits into that young mix of players well. If you sign a FA you get 3 or so good years before they decline. If you're trading for a different one they are generally in the 27-28 age range so you get a few more years but you're still talking about replacing him when that group is still "in their prime."

I'm not saying it's a sure thing to happen I just think it makes a ton of sense for both teams.

 

[MRubio52]

In fairness, I don't think the cubs want to give up Shark. However, to get quality players you generally have to give up quality players. Maybe they could get a lessor player for less but if you're giving up B or C level prospects you're going to be getting a B or C level player. Castro is also a great age range for a lot of their younger players. Travis d'Amaud is 25. Wheeler is 24. Harvey is 25. So, Castro being 24 fits into that young mix of players well. If you sign a FA you get 3 or so good years before they decline. If you're trading for a different one they are generally in the 27-28 age range so you get a few more years but you're still talking about replacing him when that group is still "in their prime."

I'm not saying it's a sure thing to happen I just think it makes a ton of sense for both teams.

I'm not saying it's rational on their end but I think they have a few untouchables and those two are it for them.

I also wouldn't trade Castro given the struggles Baez is going through. I'd say Castro is a guy you keep.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying it's rational on their end but I think they have a few untouchables and those two are it for them.

I also wouldn't trade Castro given the struggles Baez is going through. I'd say Castro is a guy you keep.

I'm very not very surprised by Baez struggle. He's had fewer than 1k minor league at bats. I brought this up here before the season because that plus his high k rate lead me to worry about those calling for him to play in the majors to start the year. As for Noah/Mets, I'm not really sure who they are expecting to get if that is indeed how they approach trading for one. The most recent SS trade I recall is Didi Gregorius who went for Trevor Bauer and minor other parts. If I'm not mistaken Bauer's stock had fallen some but a year or two prior he was something like a top 25 prospect.

Gregorius was obviously young but it was pretty well known he wasn't going to hit much. So unless the Mets try to reclaim a failed player(ironically Gregorius sort of fits) the cost seems like it's going to take that level of prospect. So, while I get why they wouldn't want to trade Noah, I just don't see a lot of other options unless they gut a lot of their system instead of trading him.

 

[Boobaby1]

I'm not saying it's rational on their end but I think they have a few untouchables and those two are it for them.

I also wouldn't trade Castro given the struggles Baez is going through. I'd say Castro is a guy you keep.

Who knows if the Cubs are saying whether or not Baez is the one at SS or not? Maybe they are looking elsewhere like FA just as the Cardinals did, or looking down the line at someone else in the system.

Again, the Cubs need pitching, the Mets have a surplus of it, and the deal would be a proven player, headlined for one that hasn't played in the big leagues yet.

The Mets received Syndergaard and d'Arnaud for Dickey last year, so in other words, they could possibly get Castro and d'Arnaud for Dickey and be no worse than they already are, getting a hitting SS and a catcher who is in the minors.

Just a thought.

 

[dabears253313]

Alexei says hi

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No doubt Alexei has played good this season. Yesterday I voted for him to go to the all star game.

But did he drop by to say hi to Starlin Castro in 2010, 2011 and 2012?