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VIX jumped over 50% today...things looking a bit dicey all of a sudden
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- Thread starter knoxville7
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Subpar jobs report that technically set off the Sahm Rule.
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Yup read similar thing in WSJ. I do wonder if a September rates cut eases things. We'll have another jobs report in early Sept too.
Fed has a tendency to be slow on these things, so could temporarily get a little worse before it gets better.
From a feels standpoint, nearly everyone I talk to about their companies, including my own, don't feel things are good. Only my IT friends are saying things are bad, but their industry got hit pretty bad. Everyone else is pretty much in the "meh" category. It has also made them say they have zero interest in trying to find a new job right now.
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the feels is what worries me. I have heard lots of rumblings of lay offs at different major corporations
here in memphis, FedEx has been laying off people at a pretty large rate(which actually sent its stock soaring). International Paper is going through a re-structuring and they are closing down mills around the country.
I had been a bull for quite a while, even when things "looked grim" to most of the pundits a while back. now, im starting to reconsider how things will be in the coming months/years. The FED did an excellent job navigating some extremely tough situations the last several years...i dunno if they can thread the needle yet again on this one
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The market is rarely if ever rational as the response to the jobs report today is basically "OMG OUR RECORD LOW AND COMPLETELY UNSUSTAINABLE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT UP. THE SKY IS FALLING!"
Publicly traded corporations respond to this of course for short term gains. So in terms of FedEx in your example, they cut jobs because it will raise their stock price short term.
Where the unemployment rate sits now is where it should be and historically is where "low unemployment" has sat. However, these under 4% unemployment rates, looking at the history of it anyways, have shown it's just about always resulted in a recession.
All recessions are not equal though. Some are short lived, some are longer. A lot of it just depends on how it's responded to (or not).
Publicly traded corporations respond to this of course for short term gains. So in terms of FedEx in your example, they cut jobs because it will raise their stock price short term.
Where the unemployment rate sits now is where it should be and historically is where "low unemployment" has sat. However, these under 4% unemployment rates, looking at the history of it anyways, have shown it's just about always resulted in a recession.
All recessions are not equal though. Some are short lived, some are longer. A lot of it just depends on how it's responded to (or not).
HSBOB
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Was the "higher for longer" approach possibly a bit too long? Most economists claim real inflation has fallen below 3% and some claim it's 2.5% and closing in on the Fed's 2% target. Is a Fed-funds rate of 5-5.5% necessary at this point? Lower interest rates on mortgages and auto loans will benefit both industries,not to mention a lower cost of business borrowing.
Historically,adding 100K plus jobs,an unemployment rate of 4.3% and a GDP of 2.8% are solid economic numbers,but problematic due to their trends in this instance. Rate cuts SHOULD help.
There's also seasonability,last summer's rally saw markets hit new highs in July too,only to correct considerably by October before they began their most recent rally.
The last few weeks have been a kick in the teeth but I've been kicked in the teeth before,I've also held my nose and stayed the course before,as I will this time.
Historically,adding 100K plus jobs,an unemployment rate of 4.3% and a GDP of 2.8% are solid economic numbers,but problematic due to their trends in this instance. Rate cuts SHOULD help.
There's also seasonability,last summer's rally saw markets hit new highs in July too,only to correct considerably by October before they began their most recent rally.
The last few weeks have been a kick in the teeth but I've been kicked in the teeth before,I've also held my nose and stayed the course before,as I will this time.
TL1961
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Unemployment should remain low. For the entirety of our lives there has been a larger labor force than there has been jobs available so Unemployment of course was higher. But I believe since like 2018 (we started seeing a mass exodus from the work force of boomers) we have more jobs available than people to actually fill those jobs. With less people than jobs available, obviously Unemployment should be very low. This mass exodus of boomers will likely continue until 2030 without enough people to fill those jobs because generations after boomers didn't breed like rabbits because they began believing in science instead of religion.
So I guess my point is Unemployment should certainly stay low and continue to set records, while industries themselves might struggle to fill positions. Companies are going to need to get creative and likely will rely more on AI to increase productivity. This new normal is also forcing corporations to adapt to employees and create better workplace environments as the employees have options of where they want to work and the corporations don't have as broad of a market to choose new hires from.
It'll be interesting to see things evolve over the next decade or so.
So I guess my point is Unemployment should certainly stay low and continue to set records, while industries themselves might struggle to fill positions. Companies are going to need to get creative and likely will rely more on AI to increase productivity. This new normal is also forcing corporations to adapt to employees and create better workplace environments as the employees have options of where they want to work and the corporations don't have as broad of a market to choose new hires from.
It'll be interesting to see things evolve over the next decade or so.
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I suppose this does make sense.
Unemployment was mostly at 5%+ from 1970 until 2018 with an exception for the late 90s. Boomers would have largely been coming onto the job market starting around 1970.
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My company is laying off 5% of their workforce. It's a large company so probably 1,000 to 1,500 people impacted. A whole slew of different factors are impacting this but mainly AI/advancement of IT systems are making jobs redundant. They aren't saying it's 'layoffs' but using the term 'co-sourcing'. Basically, outsourcing work to other companies that do the same thing for lower cost thus reducing costs for us (salaries, benefits, etc). The impacted people will be offered positions at the other companies or can seek other jobs within the company and will be given preference. The rest paid 6 months severance. This has been a long time coming so it's not really a surprise to myself.
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I also work for a very large company, and a few months ago we had a leadership retreat.. Our SVP says some shit like, "Don't be afraid of AI! We need to embrace it. Sure, some of you may not have your jobs in a year from now, but we can't worry about that. You need to think of the legacy you'll leave behind!"
Needless to say, everyone has been worrying about it ever since.
inchibearfan
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It depends on what calculation for unemployment is used. The government constantly changes the way it calculates the unemployment numbers--thr do not count sone people who are unemployed in the numbers now. Here is a chart that shows different formulas over thr years so comparisons can actually he done:
If using the full numbers of those who are unemployed, the US is actually at its highest other than Covid when jobs were intentionally closed.
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You can't afford eggs or gas. Please don't try to be an economic expert.
inchibearfan
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I did not realize you could not afford those. Maybe you shouls thank your boy.
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What ShadowStats and why should I believe it?
inchibearfan
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They use the old calculation numbers, meaning counting all people who are unemployed. Almost all of the administrations have changed the formula over the years to make each admin look better.
Unemployment is measured through the Current Population Survey, conducted monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Only residents who are in the labor force are counted in the unemployment rate; those who have given up looking for a job are not—a controversial position.
Critics argue that not counting workers who have given up looking paints a brighter picture of unemployment than really exists.
How Is the U.S. Monthly Unemployment Rate Calculated?
The unemployment rate is a closely followed indicator, used by businesses, investors, and others to gauge the state of the U.S. economy.www.investopedia.com
Currently, if you apply for a job and give up because you are tired of filling out apps and not getting a job, you are no longer counted as "unemployed." Its magic.
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You’re claiming unemployment is 25%? Lol
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Apparently,you could only trust Department of Labor statistics when Chump was in office,Joe's jobs numbers are obviously a product of the 'deep state' or the dreaded 'shadow stat'..........LOL!
June saw roughly 200K jobs added yet the unemployment rate rose .1% and July's 114K new jobs resulted in a .2% rise.....this is clearly due to more people entering the job market......NOT less.
Discus fish salesman
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It's an absurd considering there is far more jobs available than workers available to fill jobs currently and has been for about 6 years. He's probably including retired individuals who could still work and high school and college kids who intentionally don't have jobs.