Stock Market/Investing

[knoxville7]

Japans stock market with the worst day since 1987. DOW futures down 600 points. Things are getting a tad disturbing

 

[Scoot26]

Japans stock market with the worst day since 1987. DOW futures down 600 points. Things are getting a tad disturbing

AI bubble burst?

 

[knoxville7]

AI bubble burst?

Futures now down 900

I’m more concerned about an algo sell off that gets triggered every lower benchmark we hit. Sort of a self fulfilling sell off/nosedive

 

[Scoot26]

Futures now down 900

I’m more concerned about an algo sell off that gets triggered every lower benchmark we hit. Sort of a self fulfilling sell off/nosedive

Guess we'll see if circuit breakers trigger or not.

 

[knoxville7]

Guess we'll see if circuit breakers trigger or not.

VIX is now the highest it’s been since 2020 during the height of the pandemic sell off

 

[Ares]

I shoulda bought PUT options last week.

 

[Scoot26]

I shoulda bought PUT options last week.

Shoulda coulda... BUT YOU DIDN'T.

 

[Ares]

Shoulda coulda... BUT YOU DIDN'T.

Indeed, but if this crash keeps going I may get some really nice calls on the bottom

 

[knoxville7]

Indeed, but if this crash keeps going I may get some really nice calls on the bottom

down 1200 in pre market

like you said, could be a nice buying opportunity. then again, could keep sinking. ill be waiting

 

[Scoot26]

Indeed, but if this crash keeps going I may get some really nice calls on the bottom

The key sign is probably going to be when it was reported Warren Buffet has been selling stock like crazy and is sitting on cash/treasuries.

 

[Scoot26]

down 1200 in pre market

like you said, could be a nice buying opportunity. then again, could keep sinking. ill be waiting

I'll just ride it out like I always do. Probably won't really buy anything either.

 

[Ares]

I wonder if the housing market will move.

 

[Scoot26]

I wonder if the housing market will move.

Unless the home owner is heavily invested in the stock market and loses all their money being forced to sell their house.

I doubt there is any movement.. short of this market becoming a collapse that bleeds into the economy and we end up in Great Recession vibes.

 

[Ares]

Unless the home owner is heavily invested in the stock market and loses all their money being forced to sell their house.

I doubt there is any movement.. short of this market becoming a collapse that bleeds into the economy and we end up in Great Recession vibes.

I suppose I am moreso wondering if its possible we're on the verge of another bursting housing market bubble.

It hasn't, but if its coming, you'd see the markets begin to slide as:

1. Home loans begin going unpaid long enough to foreclose

2. The foreclosure numbers hitting a point where the creditors worry

3. Credit gets more expensive and the market slides as projections worsen.

This could force the Fed's hand on a rate cut maybe?

 

[Scoot26]

I suppose I am moreso wondering if its possible we're on the verge of another bursting housing market bubble.

It hasn't, but if its coming, you'd see the markets begin to slide as:

1. Home loans begin going unpaid long enough to foreclose

2. The foreclosure numbers hitting a point where the creditors worry

3. Credit gets more expensive and the market slides as projections worsen.

This could force the Fed's hand on a rate cut maybe?

I don't feel like there is a housing market bubble. The issue with the housing market is there is simply no supply and a lot of demand. There's a variety of reasons for this... not many of them are bubble reasons.

If people are being foreclosed on, its because of other troubles in the economy, which we'll see way sooner than a housing market collapse.

The bubble that exists in the market right now is AI.

The Fed is going to cut rates next month anyways, and depending on what happens between now and then the cut may be larger than anticipated. The Fed is probably going to make several cuts down the line as well.

 

[Ares]

I don't feel like there is a housing market bubble. The issue with the housing market is there is simply no supply and a lot of demand. There's a variety of reasons for this... not many of them are bubble reasons.

If people are being foreclosed on, its because of other troubles in the economy, which we'll see way sooner than a housing market collapse.

The bubble that exists in the market right now is AI.

The Fed is going to cut rates next month anyways, and depending on what happens between now and then the cut may be larger than anticipated. The Fed is probably going to make several cuts down the line as well.

Seems like a good time to buy then.

If we tank a bit, buy, then rate cuts offer cheap credit and growth.

Could see outsized returns the next 6-12 months.

 

[knoxville7]

housing market is already seeing the rates dropping, which should help the movement of buyers/sellers. the fact that there is a lack of new homes being built/supply should keep existing home prices stable. like scoot said, i dont see a housing bubble bursting anytime soon

 

[Scoot26]

housing market is already seeing the rates dropping, which should help the movement of buyers/sellers. the fact that there is a lack of new homes being built/supply should keep existing home prices stable. like scoot said, i dont see a housing bubble bursting anytime soon

Yup, the basic issue is lack of new housing. Texas is somewhere where they are actually building a lot of housing and you see prices are more stable as a result. But generally, just about everywhere, supply is big issue. The Chicagoland market is pretty awful for example. I also follow the local governments and I see plenty of housing proposed, but NIMBYs do everything they can to either kill it or extremely scale back any project.

The secondary issues are things that are feedback loops. People who would normally move aren't because they can't find a new home even though they could sell their current home (and often for a lot of money). Older people generally like to downsize but many aren't because while they can sell their bigger house, they are obviously having trouble finding something smaller to buy.. thus not worth it to sell.

Another thing is a lot of people like me who got under 2.5% mortgages and aren't going to give that up in this market to move. If rates returned to something like that, you could see people give up those mortages.. To get back there though the Fed has to basically return interest rates to 0.

 

[Ares]

PUT options FTW today

 

[knoxville7]

Yup, the basic issue is lack of new housing. Texas is somewhere where they are actually building a lot of housing and you see prices are more stable as a result. But generally, just about everywhere, supply is big issue. The Chicagoland market is pretty awful for example. I also follow the local governments and I see plenty of housing proposed, but NIMBYs do everything they can to either kill it or extremely scale back any project.

The secondary issues are things that are feedback loops. People who would normally move aren't because they can't find a new home even though they could sell their current home (and often for a lot of money). Older people generally like to downsize but many aren't because while they can sell their bigger house, they are obviously having trouble finding something smaller to buy.. thus not worth it to sell.

Another thing is a lot of people like me who got under 2.5% mortgages and aren't going to give that up in this market to move. If rates returned to something like that, you could see people give up those mortages.. To get back there though the Fed has to basically return interest rates to 0.

my parents are a good example of this. they currently have a house they could sell for probably around a 100% profit. They are even willing to move despite the rates because they are looking to downsize/make a lateral move house size wise and therefore can use the 100% profits on their current home to buy a new house to avoid much of a mortgage, if one at all. so, the rates matter very little to them. the issue is available options that fit what they are looking for, there just isnt much.

they want to be near good hospitals/medical care as their #1 criteria. that tends to mean developed areas with existing housing with little room to build new homes. those areas tend to be the most desirable for folks their age and so there tends to be very little supply/options. folks that live in those areas tend to not want to leave them for the same reasons people want to buy there.