The Albert Pujols Watch Thread

[cubsneedmiracle]

If its gonna go down its gonna be 280 range.. nothing really below that.

 

[Jntg4]

He won't go down for a home town discount:

Now that the Super Bowl is over, the countdown can really begin. Spring Training is just days away, but that's not the countdown in question. The Cardinals have to lock Albert Pujols up by Spring Training or bid for him on the open market after the season and as ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes, contract talks are “not moving at all.”

Pujols appears to be pursuing a "Mt. Everest" contract whether it's in St. Louis or elsewhere. Other clubs - Olney names the Angels, Dodgers and Mets as examples - could re-brand themselves by signing Pujols, arguably the game's best player.

But it's too early to assume that Pujols is hitting the open market. Talks haven't been going well for a few days, but as we saw with negotiations between Derek Jeter and the Yankees, teams and players can make progress in a hurry.

Olney On Pujols Negotiations: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[Jntg4]

Hurry Up, STL: The Albert Pujols Countdown

 

[Jntg4]

Someone posted this Insider article at VSN:

With the recent revelation that Albert Pujols will not negotiate a new contract during the season, the rumor mill is already turning with possible scenarios for the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman if he doesn't reach a new deal before spring training.

The three most likely scenarios to consider when analyzing the situation are fairly obvious: Either he re-signs with St. Louis, gets traded in July, or signs elsewhere next winter. When we break down these possibilities one by one it's easy to envision some pretty intriguing situations, such as Pujols ending up with the Cards' long-time divisional rivals, or peppering the Green Monster with line drives well into the next decade.


Scenario No. 1: Pujols stays with the Cardinals
In order to determine where Pujols lands, we need to establish his value. His agent Dan Lozano is supposedly asking the Cardinals for a contract on par with the ten-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez currently operates within. (Pujols will be 32 when his next contract begins, the same age Rodriguez was when he signed his contract.) The difference is that A-Rod got that on the open market, and if Pujols re-signs before camp, he'll be negotiating only with St. Louis. He'll surely do better than the five-year, $125 million extension Ryan Howard got last season, and one source told Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman that the Cardinals could go as high as $196 million over seven years, which fits nicely between the A-Rod and Howard deals.

If Pujols signs a deal worth $28 million per year, that's a raise of more than $10 million; the Cards' 2011 payroll is already north of $100 million, and considering that their payroll has averaged $92.3 million over the past five years, they're probably at their upper limit. The Cardinals' 2012 commitments are at about $49 million right now, so adding Pujols' $28 million to that puts them at $77 million and gives them a core of Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Colby Rasmus. They could exercise Chris Carpenter's $15 million option, but that would put them at about $92 million with 18 roster spots left to fill. Sorry, St. Louis fans, but Pujols and Carpenter are probably mutually exclusive beyond 2011.

It's certainly within the Cardinals' means to re-sign Pujols before camp begins, but if they decide he'll be too much of a burden on their overall payroll, or if he holds out for a 10-year deal, that's when things will get interesting.

Scenario No. 2: Pujols gets moved in July 2011
Let's say the Cardinals have fallen out of the NL Central race in July -- the Milwaukee Brewers did acquire Zack Greinke, after all, and the Cincinnati Reds return much of their core. There will certainly be some trade buzz surrounding Pujols. Since he will cost a king's ransom in a trade (or at least a prince's), any team that acquires him would be one that thinks it can re-sign him. Plus, since Pujols has a full no-trade clause because of his 10-and-5 rights, that limits the field a bit.

A common refrain during this Pujols saga is that the market for him is weakened because since the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox -- baseball's biggest bidders -- both have established first basemen, they won't pay top dollar for another, so that one has to be a full-time DH, even if the other guy is Pujols. This is probably true about New York, as Mark Teixeira has six years left on his contract and a full no-trade clause, but what about the Red Sox? Yes, they traded for Adrian Gonzalez this winter and there was an understanding that he would soon sign a long-term extension, but he hasn't yet. You don't think Theo Epstein has Pujols in the back of his mind at this point? If the Red Sox wanted to, they could even give Gonzalez an extension and send him to the Cardinals in a trade for Pujols. I know what you're thinking: That's not worth it; Pujols isn't that much better than Gonzalez. But really, he is. Check out this graph comparing their Wins Above Replacement by year.

Yes, Pujols is a couple of years older, but he's an outlier in terms of talent perhaps more than anyone else in MLB. If the Red Sox can bring him on board, you don't think they'd be willing to flip Gonzalez? His current contract does not include any no-trade provisions, and it's not inconceivable to think he could be Pujols trade bait this summer if the Cardinals are scuffling. Gonzalez, who will certainly cost less than Pujols, would be a nice fit in St. Louis and keep the Cards in contention. Crazy? Maybe. But considering the high standard for success in the AL East, don't write the Red Sox off just yet.

Scenario No. 3: Pujols signs elsewhere next winter
The Pujols-to-the-Sox scenario is admittedly far-fetched, so who are some potential free-agent suitors if we assume the Yanks and Sox are out of it? The Los Angeles Angels will also have some cash, and could move Kendry Morales to DH if need be. They're a possibility. The New York Mets have a bunch of money coming off the books next winter, but would they move promising young first baseman Ike Davis to right field, a position he played in college, to make room for Pujols? Possible, but unlikely. The real doomsday scenario for Cardinals fans is Pujols signing with the Chicago Cubs, which would be the modern-day equivalent of the Red Sox selling Babe Ruth to the Yankees.


Getty Images
Wrigley Field could someday be the home of Pujols.
The Cubbies have been plagued by some onerous contracts in recent years, but Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena could all be free agents after next season (Ramirez has a mutual option), and that's roughly $37.1 million off of the books. Other than beating them in the NLCS, is there a better way for the Cubs to stick it to the Cardinals than by signing Pujols? One thing's for sure: If he hits the market, Chicago will be there waiting to drive up the price.

We could have fun with crazy Pujols scenarios all day, but it's hard to imagine the Cardinals letting him go. St. Louis gave Holliday a huge deal last offseason, and that's not a move you make unless you plan on signing Pujols, no matter the cost. Holliday is an excellent player, but the Cardinals are not going to consistently contend with him and not Pujols.

If St. Louis somehow lets Pujols slip away, it will be reminiscent of when Barry Bonds finally retired. The Giants' status as a contending team had been propped up for many years by Bonds alone, and the same can be said for Pujols. The difference between him and the typical first baseman is about five wins a season. You don't need a WAR graph to know that's enough to turn St. Louis from a perennial contender into a perennial pretender.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Its not gonna get done at this rate.

 

[Jntg4]

Its not gonna get done at this rate.

My thoughts exactly.

He's hitting the FA market IMO. Sure, STL could get a deal done is their 7-day (or however long it is now) exclusive negotiation period after the World Series, but he said that he will test the FA market if not signed now.

St. Louis is showing no signs of Pujols remaining a Cardinal in 2012.

Should be an interesting off-season.

 

[AddisonStation]

My thoughts exactly.

He's hitting the FA market IMO. Sure, STL could get a deal done is their 7-day (or however long it is now) exclusive negotiation period after the World Series, but he said that he will test the FA market if not signed now.

St. Louis is showing no signs of Pujols remaining a Cardinal in 2012.

Should be an interesting off-season.

If they don't sign him I'm going to be a bucket of nerves til he signs with someone.

 

[Jntg4]

If they don't sign him I'm going to be a bucket of nerves til he signs with someone.

As long as he doesn't sign in STL, I'll be happy. If he does sign in STL, then I'll be a little bummed.

This helps the Cubs whether he signs with Chicago or not, as long as another NL Central team doesn't sign him.

 

[DewsSox79]

you guys seem to think that because he states a deadline, that he wont sign during the season. there is a long way to go before this is over.

Now lets say the cubs signed him at 300 million 10 years. the cubs better win the world series the first couple of years, or this contract will be REAL bad.

 

[Jntg4]

you guys seem to think that because he states a deadline, that he wont sign during the season. there is a long way to go before this is over.

Now lets say the cubs signed him at 300 million 10 years. the cubs better win the world series the first couple of years, or this contract will be REAL bad.

They could win soon if they got Pujols with Castro, Colvin, Cashner, and Jackson looking like solid young players.

With Pujols, they aren't bad.

If the NL adds the DH in 2012, like there have been some rumors of, then Soriano is suddenly a valuable player again too.

 

[Jntg4]

you guys seem to think that because he states a deadline, that he wont sign during the season. there is a long way to go before this is over.

Now lets say the cubs signed him at 300 million 10 years. the cubs better win the world series the first couple of years, or this contract will be REAL bad.

He said that he won't sign during the season, but I see what you mean.

 

[DewsSox79]

He said that he won't sign during the season, but I see what you mean.

what I am saying is that he could tell the media that, and on may 12th he could sign. things change in sports.

my prediction:

STL first
or
NYY

 

[Jntg4]

what I am saying is that he could tell the media that, and on may 12th he could sign. things change in sports.

my prediction:

STL first
or
NYY

I don't see NYY getting him. Boston might though, since they never extended Gonzalez.

 

[Jntg4]

Pujols Countdown Gets Lower by 3 Days

The deadline for an extension between the Cardinals and Albert Pujols is earlier than anticipated. The first baseman had been scheduled to arrive in Spring Training on February 19th, but he is now expected to report on February 16th, according to ESPN. That will reduce the sides' negotiating window by three days.

The Cardinals have until Spring Training to work out a deal with Pujols’ agent, Dan Lozano, or the three-time MVP will hit free agency after the season. Earlier today, we heard that the Cardinals had yet to make Pujols a formal offer as of last weekend.

:clap:

 

[waldo7239117]

Cardinal fans better stop worrying haha.

 

[Jntg4]

Cardinal fans better stop worrying haha.

U mean start?

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

he's still gonna sign with the cards.....i just don't see him leaving...

 

[Jntg4]

he's still gonna sign with the cards.....i just don't see him leaving...

I'm doubting it more and more.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Its gonna have to be after the season.

 

[The Bandit]

he's still gonna sign with the cards.....i just don't see him leaving...

agreed