The Bulls Chances of Getting the Fifth Seed

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The Bulls best possible remaining playoff situation is to get the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. To get the fifth seed, the Bulls would need to win out, while Miami loses out, and the Philadelphia 76ers would have to win 1 or less games.

Now you can skip to the end if you would like, but here I will look at the process of determining our chances of making the fifth seed.

First, I will go through each individual matchup and assign for the Bulls, the probability of them winning it, by taking the average of the Bulls record either at home or on the road, and the 1 - the average of the other team's records, and adding them together, dividing them by two. For the 76ers and Heat, I will look at their probabilities of losing those games.

I'll start by looking at the Bulls.

vs. Charlotte
Bulls Probability of Winning: 68.83%

at Detroit
Bulls Probability of Winning: 38.75%

vs. Toronto
Bulls Probability of Winning: 67.95%

Bulls Probability of Winning Out: 18.12%

Now let's take a look at the Heat.

vs. New York
Heat's Probability of Losing: 31.67%

at Atlanta
Heat's Probability of Losing: 68.75%

vs. Detroit
Heat's Probability of Losing: 39.74%

Heat's Probability of Losing Out: 8.65%

Probability of Bulls Winning Out and Heat Losing Out: 1.57%

Now lets look at the Philadelphia 76ers.

at Toronto
76ers Probability of Losing: 50.74%

vs. Boston
76ers Probability of Losing: 53.33%

at Cleveland
76ers Probability of Losing: 78.21%

76ers Probablity of Losing Out: 21.16%

But in regards to the Bulls playoff chances, the Bulls just need the 76ers to lose 2 games. To find this, I will take the average of these three probabilities, and use that to compute the probability of the 76ers losing 2 games.

The 76ers Probability of Losing Two Games Is: 36.92%

Therefore, the probability of the Bulls making the fifth seed is: 0.58%

 

[collisrost]

wow. significantly less than 1.7%!!! guess our luck isn't going to hold.

 

[dougthonus]

I don't know of a better way to calculate the odds, but I don't think they're fairly representative of the actual odds.

Philly's odds of losing two games is just calculated incorrectly. You need to figure out the odds of all possible situations and then add up the ones where they lose two games. In this case the odds are way better than that they lose two than they win two. This is intuitively obvious by the fact that they lose is greater than a win for each game.

That being said, while I think the odds are probably 5-10 as high as you credit. They're still extremely low.

 

[dunkside.com]

by using some very elaborate calculations combined with advanced statistics, complex trigonometry i created a model that i ran on some bleeding edge technology. the results indicated that the bulls' chances of getting the 5th seed are: ZERO

 

[??? ??????]

Alright, redoing this, after the Bobcats game, following Doug's suggestion for the 76ers.

at Detroit
Bulls Probability of Winning: 38.75%

vs. Toronto
Bulls Probability of Winning: 68.33%

Bulls Probability of Winning Out: 26.48%

Now let's take a look at the Heat.

vs. New York
Heat's Probability of Losing: 31.67%

at Atlanta
Heat's Probability of Losing: 68.75%

vs. Detroit
Heat's Probability of Losing: 39.17%

Heat's Probability of Losing Out: 8.53%

Probability of Bulls Winning Out and Heat Losing Out: 2.26%

Now lets look at the Philadelphia 76ers.

at Toronto
76ers Probability of Losing: 50.74%

vs. Boston
76ers Probability of Losing: 53.33%

at Cleveland
76ers Probability of Losing: 78.21%

76ers Probablity of Losing Out: 21.16%


But in regards to the Bulls playoff chances, the Bulls just need the 76ers to lose 2 games.

The 76ers Probability of Losing Two Games Is: 36.15%

Therefore, the probability of the Bulls making the fifth seed is: 0.82%

 

[TheStig]

I think your numbers are off but the 5th seed is very slim that we win out and both Miami and Philly lose out. I've been saying for a little we can take the sixth seed but our only chance at the 5th seed is a wade injury or if they shut him down for rest. Its doubtful they shut him down since they are close and there is a big difference between playing the hawks and the powerhouse teams.

 

[pinkizdead]

dunkside.com wrote:

by using some very elaborate calculations combined with advanced statistics, complex trigonometry i created a model that i ran on some bleeding edge technology. the results indicated that the bulls' chances of getting the 5th seed are: ZERO

i just use a magic 8 ball.

-Outlook not so good

 

[Ton]

According to Jesse Rogers, Barry Smith helped Joel Quenneville run practice this morning. He was instructing the power-play which is interesting if only for the simple fact that he served as Scotty Bowman's assistant/associate coach from 1986-2002.



Smith was a major contributor at Scotty Bowman's side, helping him win five Stanley Cups while gaining credit for bringing over the left-wing lock system, one of the most effective strategies the game has ever seen, after seeing it in Europe.



Barry is currently the Director of Player Development for the Chicago Blackhawks.



If Barry has any sort of impact on the power-play, the video below may be a hint of what we are suppose to expect in the coming weeks for the Blackhawks on the man advantage.



[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9CBC1un4v8[/media]



Click here to view the article

 

[Pez68]

Might as well move my posts from the Quenneville thread to here.

 

[R K]

We all know how the PK changed overnight during the last part of the trip and ironically who was on that trip? Now this. 1 + 1 = what most of us have been saying for a long time.



Unfortunately is it too late. Some awefully good teams from here on out.

 

[PatrickShart]

He's a sharp cookie and I could see him replacing Kitchen in the off season as the coaching change.



I've had the opportunity to chat/work with him a few times several years ago - he does a lot with USA hockey

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Nice!

 

[EspoForever]

This is great to see that they are doing something about the problem.



I liked how Barry stressed

1. Player movement and

2. Handling the puck well to get it to time and space



The 2 things our PP has not had in a good while.



This cannot hurt!

 

[puckjim]

**** Quenneville.



I'm a big fan of this public admonishment, whether it's successful or not.

 

[PatrickShart]

Now if the players can complete a pass, that would go a long way



Not to put any sort of accountability towards them

 

[Rex]

why has this taken so damn long??

 

[Rex]

Now if the players can complete a pass, that would go a long way



Not to put any sort of accountability towards them

that would be huge, but I can't tell you how tired I have gotten of the "cycle for 90 seconds, get stripped of the puck, spend 30 seconds taking it back into the zone" PP we currently have. Other teams know that we are going to cycle the puck and then try to feed the puck to someone who is open at the side of the net. It's been our PP for years now, and it's not working anymore.

 

[Pez68]

Now if the players can complete a pass, that would go a long way



Not to put any sort of accountability towards them

Being setup for one timers would help this drastically.... Unfortunately this team doesn't believe in playing guys on their offhand side on the PP.

 

[CLWolf81]

Awww **** this is disabled...



Well, this quote from above I like, that's for sure...

Smith was a major contributor at Scotty Bowman's side, helping him win five Stanley Cups while gaining credit for bringing over the left-wing lock system, one of the most effective strategies the game has ever seen, after seeing it in Europe.

Thats huge. If Barry Smith is the next coach, then so be it.... Wish it were Haviland, but damn this is too tempting to pass up.

 

[the canadian dream]

Im good with this.



I know there has been a lot of debate in the past regarding who runs the pp. I have no idea who it is but when i see kitch with the play board when its a time out on a man advantage my gutt tells me its been him. But whatever.



Here's the possible next head coach. A bowman guy. How surprising.