The case against moving up to 4

[Nelly]

The cost is just way too high to move up from 20 to 4 for what amounts to a dice roll. Everyone convinces themselves that "THIS" is the guy only to watch him flop while another guy who's got some flaws suddenly becomes star.

I'll say it til i'm blue in the face. You look at history and it's littered with bust QBs or guys who end up being just another guy in the top 10: much moreso than "top 10 QBs." Knowing the Bears' history, we've got the best shot at finding the guy who's going to bust regardless of how highly touted he is. Why trade numerous first round picks for the privilege of watching another high pick bust struggle to become more than a backup QB?

 

[tgmxd]

Not this team, not with this GM and HC. They've already proven that they can't.

Problem is we can't do anything about it now. They aren't going to bring them both back just to punt another year at QB

The good news for us is you don't have to be a great or even good GM to hit on a QB.

 

[Raskolnikov]

We've been doing that for 50 years. In today's NFL you get a Franchise QB when you can. Without one you can't complete for a title.

So let me get this right? Trade every asset you have for the 4th best QB in 2021 draft?

Great idea...Pace would probably hire you as a scout.

 

[bearsfan1977]

Whats the fascination with Davis Mills about? I dont understand it. In the few games he played this year I believe he had a 1 TD:1 INT ratio in all but one game. NO THANKS!!

At least give me a guy who performed well in college. I'll take Trask in the 2nd if he is available. Not interested in any of the other guys. Kellen Mond would be a decent project, but we need someone to come in and legitimacy push Dalton from day 1.

?? He started 13 games. 18TDs to 8 INTs. Nearly 3500 yards passing. 6’4” 225 lbs with a good arm and great accuracy over the middle.

2 issues with him: ACL history and lack of experience. When watching his tape you see a guy who can make reads and has all of the tools, but just needs more game experience in order to make those reads more consistently.

 

[BearFanJohn]

Does anyone here trust Pace to trade up for a QB? It worked out so well before. The Bears have to many problems to lose that much draft capital.

 

[Raskolnikov]

We disagree. I think San Fran is taking Fields. I like Jones as a prospect. If he falls, I’d be on board moving up depending on the cost.

I just happen to think Davis Mills may turn into a very good QB. But, it’s all a crapshoot.

I'd move no higher than 8 for Jones...but honestly just call the Patriots bluff about moving up, and target 13 with the Chargers, still jump ahead of new england for that 74% accuracy rate. (best ever) Thats a Walsh type QB there.
My gut says you can get Jones at 13 due to his Brady body.
Jones at 13...maybe 8 if you hear trade winds. But he might not get past San Fran. In which case you dare someone else to draft Fields and target 13 or 16 maybe as good slots at good value. imo.

The cost to jump to 8 will be quite cost prohibitive. The Julio Jones trade is the benchmark there. 8 is steep, forget about 4. Probably grow some balls and be in contact with Chargers at 13...13 is my personal target for Jones.

For Fields I am more of a mind to see if he falls to us where we are. You can't ever get great value if you don't have balls and patience to BPA. If you trade up you hemorrhage away any luck you might have had and always overpay.

 

[vanavyman]

So let me get this right? Trade every asset you have for the 4th best QB in 2021 draft?

Great idea...Pace would probably hire you as a scout.

Doesn't mean 4th best QB. QB taken with the 4th pick. Who is better is an opinion and there are a lot of them. Of course they would not make this trade unless they see the player as a Franchise QB. What other QB in Bears history has had the talent of Fields?

 

[bearsfan1977]

I'm a big Davis Mills fan but he is very raw and has very little experience. Jones would be a great QB for Nagy's system if we can't get Fields. Mills is a big question mark. With the right coaching maybe he can be a starter in 1-2 years.

I’m with you on Jones, man. I’m a fan of him too. I hope he slides past 10.

 

[Nelly]

So let me get this right? Trade every asset you have for the 4th best QB in 2021 draft?

Great idea...Pace would probably hire you as a scout.

This happens, every, single, year. People look at the draft class in isolation and compare all the QBs of this class against each other and then reason themselves into reasons why this guy is worthy of a top 10 pick almost purely because of the need for a good QB in order to be successful. Once you convince yourself that "this is the guy" it's not even a hop, skip and jump to justify the exorbitant price to get him. Then fans end up hoping against hope that Daniel Jones, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota or Blake Bortles can find a way to not suck.

 

[Raskolnikov]

This happens, every, single, year. People look at the draft class in isolation and compare all the QBs of this class against each other and then reason themselves into reasons why this guy is worthy of a top 10 pick almost purely because of the need for a good QB in order to be successful. Once you convince yourself that "this is the guy" it's not even a hop, skip and jump to justify the exorbitant price to get him. Then fans end up hoping against hope that Daniel Jones, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota or Blake Bortles can find a way to not suck.

I agree, if you jump to 8 I would highly consider WR or OT. I'd endorse that move...not that I don't like Jones, but the risk is too high to pay that cost. There are 2 WR's that are a sure thing to produce at a high level. If you pay all that you have to get something good or you will hit a deep rock bottom.

 

[Nelly]

I agree, if you jump to 8 I would highly consider WR or OT. I'd endorse that move...not that I don't like Jones, but the risk is too high to pay that cost. There are 2 WR's that are a sure thing to produce at a high level. If you pay all that you have to get something good or you will hit a deep rock bottom.

I don't agree with moving up at all. There's too much talent that will available to us at #20 and we can't afford to be giving up more picks when we have some holes to fill. I'd be more in favor of a trade-down considering our success with day 2 and 3 picks. The draft is such a crap shoot that it's better to have more whacks with a claw hammer rather than just a few with a sledge (IMO).

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Yeah can the draft get here already?

I'm still trying to figure out how the case has been made and it's a foregone conclusion that the bears are moving up to #4 that we need a case against doing it...

Also, thoughts like "building the OLine is treading water because its not the QB" are idiotic, but I expect no less of this wonderful board during 'meatballs with scouting/draft hot takes' season.

 

[dentfan]

First off, I have heard the arguments for trading up to 4, and they are valid. I respect those points.

1) 3 QBs will go top 3, which I don’t believe has happened since ‘99. Top 5 may go in the first 10, which I don’t think has ever happened. It is a bad year for a QB-needy team sitting at 20.

2) I don’t think the 9ers take Jones. I believe they cannot pass on Fields’ upside. In truth, I think Jones is a very good prospect and feel he will have a nice career in the right system, including the Shanny system. Fields, though is a prospect that can also lead that team with the right coaching. I do not feel the ransom the Bears will have to pay will be worth the cost of Jones.

3) If I am wrong, and Fields is there at 4, as mentioned, it will cost a ton to get him. Multiple firsts, perhaps a 2nd and 3rds, etc. Fields will be obtained, but the Bears will literally have a near impossible task of building a roster around him for at least the next 2 years. Not an ideal situation for Fields who will need to develop a bit at the NFL level. In addition, there are teams ahead of the Bears who can and will offer the Falcons good compensation, including a higher pick in this years draft.

4)Now if Jones slips out of the top 10, that move makes a lot more sense. He can lean behind Dalton and the future isn’t completely mortgaged.

What I would do: the Orlando Brown rumors may not happen, but it is more possible than people think. The Ravens will released him next year probably since they paid Stanley, just like ARob will probably leave next year. Make a swing for Brown. Draft Jenkins at 20. Fix the trenches on the OL for the first time in decades. Brown-Daniels-Mustipher-Whitehair-Jenkins. Ifedi and Barr backing up.

Draft Davis Mills in the 2nd. I think he could be a very good QB. Just needs experience as he has all the tools. At worst he will be a very good and cheap backup QB, which is very valuable, especially on this team.

CB/WR and BPA rest of the draft.

This will make the offense competitive, IMO, and nothing prevents them from trading up next year for a QB when the cap is more manageable.

Are people still thinking we'll move up? Is that really a thing?

Nah, we will take the best player at 20. We may trade around a bit during days 2 & 3, but there's no way we are paying a king's ransom for QB4 or QB5 in this draft.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Are people still thinking we'll move up? Is that really a thing?

Nah, we will take the best player at 20. We may trade around a bit during days 2 & 3, but there's no way we are paying a king's ransom for QB4 or QB5 in this draft.

I think OP is basically a response to this article/thread.

 

[bearsfan1977]

I think OP is basically a response to this article/thread.

In part. It’s also a response to a lot of other stories, comments, etc saying they should go up to 4.

Fields is at 4-at least debatable.
Fields goes at 3-no freakin way.

 

[vabearsfan15]

?? He started 13 games. 18TDs to 8 INTs. Nearly 3500 yards passing. 6’4” 225 lbs with a good arm and great accuracy over the middle.

2 issues with him: ACL history and lack of experience. When watching his tape you see a guy who can make reads and has all of the tools, but just needs more game experience in order to make those reads more consistently.

Well, ok, I wasn't exactly right, but close enough. 18 TDs in 13 games is not what I call impressive. That's under 1.4 TDs a game. In fact of you compare those stats to Trubisky, who played 3 less games this year, the TD:INT is eerly similar. Trubs had 16 TDs and 8 INTs...and Trubs did that in the NFL.

So, yeah, I don't see what anyone sees in Mills. I dont know of any franchise QBs who were below average in college, drafted in the 2nd rd or better, and then had a good career. Mills, at best is a late rd project.

If Pace & Nagy draft a high rd project like Mills to come in and save the year, they should be fired. It would be one of the most arrogant decisions a staff could make.

 

[bearsfan1977]

Well, ok, I wasn't exactly right, but close enough. 18 TDs in 13 games is not what I call impressive. That's under 1.4 TDs a game. In fact of you compare those stats to Trubisky, who played 3 less games this year, the TD:INT is eerly similar. Trubs had 16 TDs and 8 INTs...and Trubs did that in the NFL.

So, yeah, I don't see what anyone sees in Mills. I dont know of any franchise QBs who were below average in college, drafted in the 2nd rd or better, and then had a good career. Mills, at best is a late rd project.

If Pace & Nagy draft a high rd project like Mills to come in and save the year, they should be fired. It would be one of the most arrogant decisions a staff could make.

Watch tape and analysis on him, which it sounds like you haven’t done. Not making excuses for him, but Stanford has a pro style offense and he made tight window throws in traffic at a far higher rate than someone like Lance whose receivers had to be wide open for him to drop it in. 18:8 isn’t “close” to a 1:1 ratio, it’s more than 2:1. Their offense isn’t an air raid system.

Again, I do not believe that Fields will be available. If there is no trade up, taking Mills in the 2nd is their best option. A helluva lot better than taking a swing on Trask IMO.

 

[PrideisBears]

View attachment 11269


Nick disagrees.

If you dont stop with that picture ?


Anyway the real case is that neither Pace 9r Nagy deserves another chance

 

[vabearsfan15]

Watch tape and analysis on him, which it sounds like you haven’t done. Not making excuses for him, but Stanford has a pro style offense and he made tight window throws in traffic at a far higher rate than someone like Lance whose receivers had to be wide open for him to drop it in. 18:8 isn’t “close” to a 1:1 ratio, it’s more than 2:1. Their offense isn’t an air raid system.

Again, I do not believe that Fields will be available. If there is no trade up, taking Mills in the 2nd is their best option. A helluva lot better than taking a swing on Trask IMO.

I dont need to watch tape on him. Its a waste of time. The odds of someone with his types if stats automatically becoming good in the NFL are slim.

Need I point out again that Davis mills threw for only 18 TDs in 13 games. Kyle Trask on the other hand threw for 43 TDs in 12 games in the SEC. Yet, you think Mills is the better prospect!?!

When has a cute pick, with Mills-like stats worked out? Please enlighten me. Because at the end of the day scoring TDs are what matter.

As for current QBs final collegiate season, Mahomes threw 41 TDs at Texas Tech, Watson 41, Burrow 60, Russell Wilson 33 Tds, Justin Herbert 32 TDs, Baker Mayfield 43, Kyle Murray 42, even Lamar Jackson had 27 ( thoigh he also had 18 Rush TDs)

Your best example may be Josh Allen who all of a sudden put a great season together. Tom Vrady had bad stats bud he was a 6th rd pice.

 

[Payton!34]

I don’t understand how they didn’t fire pace bc of all the shitty qb and first round blunders.

we have no qb therefore it seems no future at being consistent winners and potential diner bowl caliber team.

with that said either they give pace full reigns and say that he’s safe for a few years otherwise giving pace a chance at making a huge trade for a qb in the draft is crazy!

this was the perfect time for new organization to come in here and draft their guy. If pace makes a huge deal and we won’t have shot for picks the next two years we will suck and other teams will benefit from our shitty play.