The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[beckdawg]

Ty Youngfelt ‏@TyYoungfelt 54m

Cubs, Royals have discussed Emilio Bonifacio for Darwin Barney...

I was about to bring him up so I'm glad to see this. He's not amazing by any regard but he brings 2 things the cubs really need in SB's and OBP. The arbitration estimate on Barney is 2 mil and Bonifacio is making $3.5 IIRC. Plus, you can move him around based on need. I'm not sure if he can play CF but you could probably move him around with Lake and Sweeney manning CF as needed.

 

[dabynsky]

Bonifacio was designated for assignment by the Royals yesterday so seems like you could get him for pretty low cost. His bat is about Barney's with only one year above 76 OPS+. Seems like you are trading elite defense for elite speed.

 

[patg006]

I don't know anything about Bonifacio, and even without looking it up, I am in favor of this move.

Wicked fast guy on the bases. Not desirable OBP for a lead off man. But he can't be any worse than Darwin Barney at the plate.

 

[beckdawg]

Bonifacio was designated for assignment by the Royals yesterday so seems like you could get him for pretty low cost. His bat is about Barney's with only one year above 76 OPS+. Seems like you are trading elite defense for elite speed.

Barney - .246/.293/.336
Bonifacio - .262/.322/.340

Those are career numbers by the way. Now you can say what's 20 points on BA and 30 on OBP. But it's really a big deal. To put it into perspective, Miami last year had a .293 OBP and scored 513 runs for last in the majors. Atlanta had a .321 OBP and scored 688 runs for 13th in the majors. Granted that's over an entire team but it goes to illustrate the point. For reference, the cubs had .300 OBP last year so Bonifacio would push that up by a fair margin. I'm not sure the slugging portion of OPS+ even really matters given they both aren't going to hit for power and given Bonifacio's career slugging is slightly better than Barney's.

As for elite defense, that's hard to quantify. But, UZR/150 for Barney over his career is 12.4. Bonifacio is a bit of a mixed bag. At 2B his career mark is -2.6. However, last year was the first year he spent significant time there. He had 710.2 innings with no other season having more than 325 where as last year barney had 1237.1. And last year he was 0.9. So, it's not like you're falling off a cliff defensively. You're just going from arguably the best defensive 2B to an average 2B. If Bonifacio had qualified he would have been 11th in the majors in UZR/150. It's also worth noting that Bonaficio was significantly better at the corner OF defensively(10.4 career in RF, 8.6 in LF).

The reason I like the move is because you're likely going to see Alcantara or Baez at 2B by midseason anyways and Bonifacio gives you a versatile switch hitter who could slot into the 1/2 hole with Castro as well as play multiple positions. For example, he in theory could play 2B til midseason where they decide to deal Schierholtz allowing them to move Bonifacio to RF and have Baez/Alcantara to play 2B. Also, Bonifacio was fairly horrid in TOR(.218/.258/.321) but hit well after being traded to KC in the second half(.285/.352/.348). That's a lot closer to his 2011 campaign with the Marlins where he hit .296/.360/.393.

So, I see it as more than just speed for defense. That being said, the overall lack of OBP the cubs have makes you think they will need to manufacture runs and given that Soriano lead the cubs in steals last year at 10 that's pretty troubling. The way I see it is you likely would put Bonifacio at lead off and bat Castro behind him. Between Bonifacio stealing second say 30-40 times it puts him in scoring position for Castro who you'd hope would see a rebound in his average. And if not, you then have Rizzo batting third.

 

[dabynsky]

Barney - .246/.293/.336
Bonifacio - .262/.322/.340

Those are career numbers by the way. Now you can say what's 20 points on BA and 30 on OBP. But it's really a big deal. To put it into perspective, Miami last year had a .293 OBP and scored 513 runs for last in the majors. Atlanta had a .321 OBP and scored 688 runs for 13th in the majors. Granted that's over an entire team but it goes to illustrate the point. For reference, the cubs had .300 OBP last year so Bonifacio would push that up by a fair margin. I'm not sure the slugging portion of OPS+ even really matters given they both aren't going to hit for power and given Bonifacio's career slugging is slightly better than Barney's.

As for elite defense, that's hard to quantify. But, UZR/150 for Barney over his career is 12.4. Bonifacio is a bit of a mixed bag. At 2B his career mark is -2.6. However, last year was the first year he spent significant time there. He had 710.2 innings with no other season having more than 325 where as last year barney had 1237.1. And last year he was 0.9. So, it's not like you're falling off a cliff defensively. You're just going from arguably the best defensive 2B to an average 2B. If Bonifacio had qualified he would have been 11th in the majors in UZR/150. It's also worth noting that Bonaficio was significantly better at the corner OF defensively(10.4 career in RF, 8.6 in LF).

The reason I like the move is because you're likely going to see Alcantara or Baez at 2B by midseason anyways and Bonifacio gives you a versatile switch hitter who could slot into the 1/2 hole with Castro as well as play multiple positions. For example, he in theory could play 2B til midseason where they decide to deal Schierholtz allowing them to move Bonifacio to RF and have Baez/Alcantara to play 2B. Also, Bonifacio was fairly horrid in TOR(.218/.258/.321) but hit well after being traded to KC in the second half(.285/.352/.348). That's a lot closer to his 2011 campaign with the Marlins where he hit .296/.360/.393.

So, I see it as more than just speed for defense. That being said, the overall lack of OBP the cubs have makes you think they will need to manufacture runs and given that Soriano lead the cubs in steals last year at 10 that's pretty troubling. The way I see it is you likely would put Bonifacio at lead off and bat Castro behind him. Between Bonifacio stealing second say 30-40 times it puts him in scoring position for Castro who you'd hope would see a rebound in his average. And if not, you then have Rizzo batting third.

Bonifacio career numbers are boosted by one spectacular season where he hit .296/.360/.393. Prior to that and after that he has not been a high OBP player. Here are his season by season OBP with games played:
2007 .333 (11 games)
2008 .296 (49 games)
2009 .303 (127 games)
2010 .320 (73 games)
2011 .360 (152 games)
2012 .330 (64 games)
2013 .295 (136 games)

The gap between Bonafacio and Barney isn't nearly as large as you make it out to be even including that huge year. Barney's career OPS+ is 71 and Bonafacio's is 79. Sure if Bonafacio somehow replicates that 2011 season it becomes a huge win for the Cubs, but the odds of that happening are quite low.

Now don't get me wrong I wouldn't mind adding Bonafacio as a utility guy with his ability to play over the diamond and speed and ability to draw a walk occasionally. I just not sure the Cubs have to give up a player with even as limited skills as Barney to make it happen following Bonafacio's DFA.

 

[dabynsky]

Just to make my point a little more clear now that baseball-reference is working for me. Here is Bonifacio's slash line before his amazing 2011 and after 2011:
2007-2010 .251/.306/.317 69 OPS+ in 923 PA
2012-2013 .248/.308/.325 73 OPS+ in 735 PA

So again apart from one season Bonifacio has been right around Darwin Barney offensively. You trade some AVG/OBP for SLG but their OPS+ which is adjusted to league and ballpark pins them to be just about equal.

And so yeah I think it is pretty safe to describe a Barney-Bonifacio trade as trading average speed/elite defense for average defense/elite speed.

 

[beckdawg]

Bonifacio career numbers are boosted by one spectacular season where he hit .296/.360/.393. Prior to that and after that he has not been a high OBP player. Here are his season by season OBP with games played:
2007 .333 (11 games)
2008 .296 (49 games)
2009 .303 (127 games)
2010 .320 (73 games)
2011 .360 (152 games)
2012 .330 (64 games)
2013 .295 (136 games)

The gap between Bonafacio and Barney isn't nearly as large as you make it out to be even including that huge year. Barney's career OPS+ is 71 and Bonafacio's is 79. Sure if Bonafacio somehow replicates that 2011 season it becomes a huge win for the Cubs, but the odds of that happening are quite low.

Now don't get me wrong I wouldn't mind adding Bonafacio as a utility guy with his ability to play over the diamond and speed and ability to draw a walk occasionally. I just not sure the Cubs have to give up a player with even as limited skills as Barney to make it happen following Bonafacio's DFA.

Barney's OBP over the past 3 years is 9th worst among players with qualified innings(226 players). Bonifacio's "one big season" accounts for 641 of his 2299 career PAs. So you're talking 28%. Barney's "one big season" offensively was 2011 where he hit .276/.313/.353 and that accounts for 32% of his total PAs. That's vs .296/.360/.393 at Bonifacio's peak. I would call that a significant difference. The past 2 seasons Barney has had a .299 OBP and a .266 OBP. If you want to knock Bonifacio you have to do the same for Barney. More importantly, Bonifacio's 2nd half numbers which I posted were pretty similar to his "one spectacular season." So, it's not all smoke and mirrors. On the contrary, Barney has steadily gotten worse every season.

I'll admit that people should be skeptical of Bonifacio but honestly what hope is there for Barney? Sure his BABIP was low but even if you up it 48 points to his career average he's a .256 hitter with a .314 OBP. Bonifacio's worst two seasons were .252/.303 and .243/.295 the latter of which was last year where he hit .207/.248/.304 with a .260 BABIP(his career average is .332) in the first half and .285/.347/.363 with a .375 BABIP. A .375 BABIP is likely unsustainable but a .340-.350 BABIP especially for someone with his speed isn't that unheard of. Trout has a .366 BABIP over the past 3 years with Kemp(.366), Dexter Fowler(.357), Michael Bourn(.353), Ryan Braun(.350), Austin Jackson(.348), Carlos Gonzalez(.346), Melky Cabrera(.342) and Bonifacio himself at .342 being examples of guys who have speed and have been able to sustain that sort of BABIP over an extended period. Bonifacio's other down year was a .312 BABIP which is 20 points below his average. That pushes him up to a .272/.323 hitter again which coincidentally is right in line with his career average.

Would I give up anything significant to get Bonifacio? No. Would I trade Barney for him straight up? Absolutely. And given the rumor was "Cubs, Royals have discussed Emilio Bonifacio for Darwin Barney..." that's just what was being discussed.

 

[dabynsky]

Barney's OBP over the past 3 years is 9th worst among players with qualified innings(226 players). Bonifacio's "one big season" accounts for 641 of his 2299 career PAs. So you're talking 28%. Barney's "one big season" offensively was 2011 where he hit .276/.313/.353 and that accounts for 32% of his total PAs. That's vs .296/.360/.393 at Bonifacio's peak. I would call that a significant difference. The past 2 seasons Barney has had a .299 OBP and a .266 OBP. If you want to knock Bonifacio you have to do the same for Barney. More importantly, Bonifacio's 2nd half numbers which I posted were pretty similar to his "one spectacular season." So, it's not all smoke and mirrors. On the contrary, Barney has steadily gotten worse every season.

I'll admit that people should be skeptical of Bonifacio but honestly what hope is there for Barney? Sure his BABIP was low but even if you up it 48 points to his career average he's a .256 hitter with a .314 OBP. Bonifacio's worst two seasons were .252/.303 and .243/.295 the latter of which was last year where he hit .207/.248/.304 with a .260 BABIP(his career average is .332) in the first half and .285/.347/.363 with a .375 BABIP. A .375 BABIP is likely unsustainable but a .340-.350 BABIP especially for someone with his speed isn't that unheard of. Trout has a .366 BABIP over the past 3 years with Kemp(.366), Dexter Fowler(.357), Michael Bourn(.353), Ryan Braun(.350), Austin Jackson(.348), Carlos Gonzalez(.346), Melky Cabrera(.342) and Bonifacio himself at .342 being examples of guys who have speed and have been able to sustain that sort of BABIP over an extended period. Bonifacio's other down year was a .312 BABIP which is 20 points below his average. That pushes him up to a .272/.323 hitter again which coincidentally is right in line with his career average.

Would I give up anything significant to get Bonifacio? No. Would I trade Barney for him straight up? Absolutely. And given the rumor was "Cubs, Royals have discussed Emilio Bonifacio for Darwin Barney..." that's just what was being discussed.

See the additional post for addressing the just 28% of his PAs is one spectacular season.

Expecting .340 BABIP seems high given that his BABIP has seemingly stabilized in the mid .320s range with a career mark of .320. Steamer projects a .320 BABIP next year which gives him a .255/.318/.337 slash line. I would take that player, but it is hardly a lock that the Cubs get that guy. And therefore don't take it as a no brainer slam dunk trade.

 

[beckdawg]

See the additional post for addressing the just 28% of his PAs is one spectacular season.

Expecting .340 BABIP seems high given that his BABIP has seemingly stabilized in the mid .320s range with a career mark of .320. Steamer projects a .320 BABIP next year which gives him a .255/.318/.337 slash line. I would take that player, but it is hardly a lock that the Cubs get that guy. And therefore don't take it as a no brainer slam dunk trade.

It's hardly a lock that Barney is better than the .254/.299/.354 he put up in 2012. Your pre-2011 split seems to be missing the fact that he was 22-25. Bonifacio wasn't some highly regarded prospect. So seeing that it took him til 25+ to start hitting is far from a shock. And the post split includes a sizable chunk where he hit 70 points below his career BABIP. If you want to to take Bonifacio at his "prime" of 25-32ish that puts his numbers at .269/.331/.353. Ok so he had a big season. But adding in his poor seasons as a younger player off sets that. I have no issue with suggesting his 2011 season is unlikely to repeat. But to say his career average is slanted because of it is a bit much. And it's perfectly fair to say the same about Barney given they are of a similar age. That's why I used career averages for both. It's not like I was cherry picking. I tried to use the biggest sample size possible.

Take the past 2 seasons and chop out the first half of this year which he was dreadful in and you get a .270/.337 player. Given that, is it so difficult to believe his .262/.322 career average is unsustainable? I mean I'm not saying you totally ignore his first half last year but his BABIP was .260 over 245 PAs where as the rest of his career he had .338 BABIP over 1811 PAs from 2008-2012 + whatever .375 BABIP over 216 PAs in the second half would add.

Either way, even if you take streamers OBP you're talking about him providing 20 points in OBP over Barney's 2012 season. And the simple fact that he has hit .296/.360/.393 in the past proves it can be done. Is it likely? Probably not. But he proved in the second half last year that he can hit .285/.347/.363. That's 857 PAs of his career 2299 PAs where he's been a highly effective offensive player. When's Barney EVER been highly effective? Barney's best season he hit .276/.313/.353 over 571 PAs which at best can be described as below average. Over his remaining 1228 PAs he hasn't managed to keep his OBP above .300 which is atrocious.

So to say there's not much of a difference between the two is something I can't agree to. Bonifacio's floor is right around Barney's ceiling.

 

[dabynsky]

It's hardly a lock that Barney is better than the .254/.299/.354 he put up in 2012. Your pre-2011 split seems to be missing the fact that he was 22-25. Bonifacio wasn't some highly regarded prospect. So seeing that it took him til 25+ to start hitting is far from a shock. If you want to to take Bonifacio at his "prime" of 25-32ish that puts his numbers at .269/.331/.353. Ok so he had a big season. But adding in his poor seasons as a younger player off sets that. I have no issue with suggesting his 2011 season is unlikely to repeat. But to say his career average is slanted because of it is a bit much. And it's perfectly fair to say the same about Barney given they are of a similar age. That's why I used career averages for both. It's not like I was cherry picking. I tried to use the biggest sample size possible.

Take the past 2 seasons and chop out the first half of this year which he was dreadful in and you get a .270/.337 player. Given that, is it so difficult to believe his .262/.322 career average is unsustainable? I mean I'm not saying you totally ignore his first half last year but his BABIP was .260 over 245 PAs where as the rest of his career he had .338 BABIP over 1811 PAs from 2008-2012 + whatever .375 BABIP over 216 PAs in the second half would add.

Either way, even if you take streamers OBP you're talking about him providing 20 points in OBP over Barney's 2012 season. And the simple fact that he has hit .296/.360/.393 in the past proves it can be done. Is it likely? Probably not. But he proved in the second half last year that he can hit .285/.347/.363. That's 857 PAs of his career 2299 PAs where he's been a highly effective offensive player. When's Barney EVER been highly effective? Barney's best season he hit .276/.313/.353 over 571 PAs which at best can be described as below average. Over his remaining 1228 PAs he hasn't managed to keep his OBP above .300 which is atrocious.

So to say there's not much of a difference between the two is something I can't agree to. Bonifacio's floor is right around Barney's ceiling.

Agree to disagree on this point. I see a player that has value due to his walk rate, speed and defensive versatility. That is a player I would like the Cubs to have in all honesty. I just don't think you can wave away the fact that his OBP has hoovered much closer to .300 throughout his entire career than the .320s you've been touting here. And that neglects the fact that Barney actually has more power than Bonifacio (definition of a tallest midget competition there). Steamer likes Bonifacio better than Barney this year, but ZiPS projects Barney to be a more valuable player than Bonifacio. Again not saying I don't see worth in Bonifacio I just dispute that it is as clear of an upgrade as presented by you.

 

[Derkach77]

Barney is a total scrub on offense. I just wish Baez would be the 2b right now but Bonifacio I can live with. We need speed to and he will hit for a better avg than Barney.

 

[beckdawg]

Agree to disagree on this point. I see a player that has value due to his walk rate, speed and defensive versatility. That is a player I would like the Cubs to have in all honesty. I just don't think you can wave away the fact that his OBP has hoovered much closer to .300 throughout his entire career than the .320s you've been touting here. And that neglects the fact that Barney actually has more power than Bonifacio (definition of a tallest midget competition there). Steamer likes Bonifacio better than Barney this year, but ZiPS projects Barney to be a more valuable player than Bonifacio. Again not saying I don't see worth in Bonifacio I just dispute that it is as clear of an upgrade as presented by you.

The power is debatable. You have to remember Barney's spent his whole career in wrigley where as Bonifacio's spent the vast majority of his career in Florida where both of their stadiums are regarded as pitching parks. If you're talking ISO it's .078 for Bonifacio vs .096 for Barney for their respective careers. That's one of the few stats Fangraphs doesn't have a weighted version of. Regardless, it's marginal if at all.

I also think you're using small splits when it benefits you and throwing them away when it doesn't. Bonifacio's OBP is hovering close to .300? It was his first 2 seasons(age 23 and 24) in the majors for a total of 695 PAs. It was also for 245 in the first half of this year aided heavily by a low BABIP for a grand total of 940 PAs. His 2010, 2011, 2012 and second half of 13 constitutes 1332 PAs where it was .320 or above with 1131 of that being above .330. So, 58% of his career he's had an OBP above .320 and if you exclude the adjustment period players go through of his first 2 years your talking about roughly 85% of his career. What's more likely, Bonifacio is the player he was as a 23/24 year old or the player he's been for the majority of the past 4 seasons?

As I said before, if you want to be skeptical of his 2011 season I'm perfectly fine with that. But the fact remains that his career average even including all of that is .262/.322. So, to say he's not that player because he struggled as a 23 and 24 year old is being obtuse. And that's before even bring up the elephant in the room which is the fact Barney has regressed each of the past 2 seasons offensively. If you flipped 2013 and 2011 maybe I can see your argument. In that case you're talking about struggling in his first full season in the majors who has turned around some of the negatives. But in this case it's the opposite. At this point, you're hoping to get back to a horrid 2012.

 

[beckdawg]

One more thing. For giggle's here's the 2 respective of the past 4 years

Barney 1799 PAs 16 HRs 200 R 130 RBI 19 SB .089 ISO .270 BABIP .246/.293/.336 .278 wOBA 67 wRC+ -53.9 fangraphs offense stat 45.5 fangraphs defense stat 5.0 WAR
Bonifacio 1577 PAs 9 HRs 192 R 88 RBI 110 SB .084 ISO .341 BABIP .269/.331/.353 .305 wOBA 88 wRC+ 0.4 fangraphs offense stat -4.2 fangraphs defense stat 4.9 WAR

So based off this, Bonifacio has put up 0.1 fewer WAR in 222 fewer PAs. Fangraphs is basically saying that Bonifacio is close to average offensively and slightly below average defensively while Barney is the 5th worst offensive player(out of 287) in baseball over those years and the 15th best defensive player. He's quite literally worse than replacement level as a hitter. If you don't put a limit on the innings, Barney is actually worse than some pitchers in their offense stat. Humberto Quintero was the worst with -47.3.

People can and have made the argument that his defense makes up for it. But you can't win games on defense alone. You have to score. So, frankly I'll take the roughly average overall Bonifacio over him any day of the week.

 

[dabynsky]

The power is debatable. You have to remember Barney's spent his whole career in wrigley where as Bonifacio's spent the vast majority of his career in Florida where both of their stadiums are regarded as pitching parks. If you're talking ISO it's .078 for Bonifacio vs .096 for Barney for their respective careers. That's one of the few stats Fangraphs doesn't have a weighted version of. Regardless, it's marginal if at all.

I also think you're using small splits when it benefits you and throwing them away when it doesn't. Bonifacio's OBP is hovering close to .300? It was his first 2 seasons(age 23 and 24) in the majors for a total of 695 PAs. It was also for 245 in the first half of this year aided heavily by a low BABIP for a grand total of 940 PAs. His 2010, 2011, 2012 and second half of 13 constitutes 1332 PAs where it was .320 or above with 1131 of that being above .330. So, 58% of his career he's had an OBP above .320 and if you exclude the adjustment period players go through of his first 2 years your talking about roughly 85% of his career. What's more likely, Bonifacio is the player he was as a 23/24 year old or the player he's been for the majority of the past 4 seasons?

As I said before, if you want to be skeptical of his 2011 season I'm perfectly fine with that. But the fact remains that his career average even including all of that is .262/.322. So, to say he's not that player because he struggled as a 23 and 24 year old is being obtuse. And that's before even bring up the elephant in the room which is the fact Barney has regressed each of the past 2 seasons offensively. If you flipped 2013 and 2011 maybe I can see your argument. In that case you're talking about struggling in his first full season in the majors who has turned around some of the negatives. But in this case it's the opposite. At this point, you're hoping to get back to a horrid 2012.

Right so your point is what exactly? The only points in his career that he has been the player you've described is when his BABIP was at .372 and .369 respectively. I just don't buy that he is the .260/.320 player based on very limited stretches that he was well above that which brings up the career averages of what he has been for the vast majority of his career.

 

[dabynsky]

One more thing. For giggle's here's the 2 respective of the past 4 years

Barney 1799 PAs 16 HRs 200 R 130 RBI 19 SB .089 ISO .270 BABIP .246/.293/.336 .278 wOBA 67 wRC+ -53.9 fangraphs offense stat 45.5 fangraphs defense stat 5.0 WAR
Bonifacio 1577 PAs 9 HRs 192 R 88 RBI 110 SB .084 ISO .341 BABIP .269/.331/.353 .305 wOBA 88 wRC+ 0.4 fangraphs offense stat -4.2 fangraphs defense stat 4.9 WAR

So based off this, Bonifacio has put up 0.1 fewer WAR in 222 fewer PAs. Fangraphs is basically saying that Bonifacio is close to average offensively and slightly below average defensively while Barney is the 5th worst offensive player(out of 287) in baseball over those years and the 15th best defensive player. He's quite literally worse than replacement level as a hitter. If you don't put a limit on the innings, Barney is actually worse than some pitchers in their offense stat. Humberto Quintero was the worst with -47.3.

People can and have made the argument that his defense makes up for it. But you can't win games on defense alone. You have to score. So, frankly I'll take the roughly average overall Bonifacio over him any day of the week.

And over half of the WAR that Bonifacio has put up in your arbitrary time frame comes from that 2011 season (2.8 of 4.9 WAR). The guy was amazing in 2011. The question is will he get anywhere close to that player again because if the answer is no than it really doesn't matter what he did then.

 

[beckdawg]

Right so your point is what exactly? The only points in his career that he has been the player you've described is when his BABIP was at .372 and .369 respectively. I just don't buy that he is the .260/.320 player based on very limited stretches that he was well above that which brings up the career averages of what he has been for the vast majority of his career.

The past 4 years with 1577 PAs is a limited stretch? That's over 2 full seasons worth of ABs and closer to 3. 695 PAs as a 23/24 year old is enough to weigh him down in your book but double that in a good stretch isn't enough to believe in? Ok.....

 

[dabynsky]

The past 4 years with 1577 PAs is a limited stretch? That's over 2 full seasons worth of ABs

Around and around we go. It is clear that you buy into those stretches of brilliance that Bonifacio has had when his BABIP has been well above every other part of his career. I don't. That is the sum of this debate. You can choose to slice it how you want, but there is a reason not a single projection out of ZiPS, Steamer and Oliver have him matching those .262/.320 career numbers next year.

 

[beckdawg]

Around and around we go. It is clear that you buy into those stretches of brilliance that Bonifacio has had when his BABIP has been well above every other part of his career. I don't. That is the sum of this debate. You can choose to slice it how you want, but there is a reason not a single projection out of ZiPS, Steamer and Oliver have him matching those .262/.320 career numbers next year.

What bothers me is you're throwing out data when it benefits your argument. That's the definition of cherry picking. I used his career stats which is the good and the bad for both and Bonifacio had a .262/.322/.340. His one good season is something that happened. You can't just throw it out. And it's not as though he's never had other stretches like that as I've pointed out. If you don't want to buy his career stats than fine. But stop acting like they aren't a valid reason to believe in him. You're choosing to weigh some portions of his career heavier than others. Fine but there is significant data to suggest that he is more than marginally better than Barney offensively.

Hell, I can make the argument alone that Bonifacio is a better play on upside alone where as Barney doesn't appear to have any. But, I don't have to. The level you're suggesting Bonifacio will play at is higher than what Barney has played at offensively for the majority of his career. In 3 of Barney's seasons he's failed to put up a .300 OBP. So even if Bonifacio puts up .252/.303 that he did in his first full season in the majors it's still better than the .241/.294, .254/.299, .208/.266 Barney put up in 2010, 2012 and 2013. As I said, Bonifacio's floor is around the level of Barney's ceiling. Now there are other factors such as defense but we're talking the absolute worst case for Bonifacio being better than what Barney put up last year offensively.

As for using projections to justify your argument, perhaps you should look at what they projected last year.
Barney
Zips - .273/.311/.352
Streamer - .275/.315/.362
Oliver - .265/.298/.336

Bonifacio
Zips - .263/.326/.347
Streamer - .263/.324/.351
Oliver - .272/.330/.351

Point here being they are projections are far from accurate. Bonifacio had a down year and they are reacting accordingly. And even then you're grasping at straws. Zips has Bonifacio at .258/.315/.339, Streamer at .255/.318/.337 and only oliver projecting him where you seem to think he will be at .247/.294/.314 with a .311 BABIP which is well below the other projections and his career average. On the contrary, they have Barney at .253/.299/.349(-.019 OBP), .248/.300/.344(-.018 OBP), and .233/.291/.336(-.003 OBP). My entire point to begin with was that Bonifacio was likely to be 20-30 points higher in OBP and 2 of the 3 have him at 18 or higher so my 20-30 points higher argument was a whole 2 points off those 2 projections. Plus there's still no reason to believe Barney gets any better. Literally the only argument I'm seeing is to hope for his BABIP to rise. But even if it goes back to his career average you're talking about a player who is still a similar level to Bonifacio's worst case offensively.

Frankly, if it's not Bonifacio it will probably be Valbenua or Roberts or Murphy taking his job. I'm by no means saying Bonifacio is special. I'm saying Barney is that terrible.

 

[dabynsky]

What bothers me is you're throwing out data when it benefits your argument. That's the definition of cherry picking. I used his career stats which is the good and the bad for both and Bonifacio had a .262/.322/.340. His one good season is something that happened. You can't just throw it out. And it's not as though he's never had other stretches like that as I've pointed out. If you don't want to buy his career stats than fine. But stop acting like they aren't a valid reason to believe in him. You're choosing to weigh some portions of his career heavier than others. Fine but there is significant data to suggest that he is more than marginally better than Barney offensively.

Hell, I can make the argument alone that Bonifacio is a better play on upside alone where as Barney doesn't appear to have any. But, I don't have to. The level you're suggesting Bonifacio will play at is higher than what Barney has played at offensively for the majority of his career. In 3 of Barney's seasons he's failed to put up a .300 OBP. So even if Bonifacio puts up .252/.303 that he did in his first full season in the majors it's still better than the .241/.294, .254/.299, .208/.266 Barney put up in 2010, 2012 and 2013. As I said, Bonifacio's floor is around the level of Barney's ceiling. Now there are other factors such as defense but we're talking the absolute worst case for Bonifacio being better than what Barney put up last year offensively.

As for using projections to justify your argument, perhaps you should look at what they projected last year.
Barney
Zips - .273/.311/.352
Streamer - .275/.315/.362
Oliver - .265/.298/.336

Bonifacio
Zips - .263/.326/.347
Streamer - .263/.324/.351
Oliver - .272/.330/.351

Point here being they are projections are far from accurate. Bonifacio had a down year and they are reacting accordingly. And even then you're grasping at straws. Zips has Bonifacio at .258/.315/.339, Streamer at .255/.318/.337 and only oliver projecting him where you seem to think he will be at .247/.294/.314 with a .311 BABIP which is well below the other projections and his career average. On the contrary, they have Barney at .253/.299/.349(-.019 OBP), .248/.300/.344(-.018 OBP), and .233/.291/.336(-.003 OBP). My entire point to begin with was that Bonifacio was likely to be 20-30 points higher in OBP and 2 of the 3 have him at 18 or higher so my 20-30 points higher argument was a whole 2 points off those 2 projections. Plus there's still no reason to believe Barney gets any better. Literally the only argument I'm seeing is to hope for his BABIP to rise. But even if it goes back to his career average you're talking about a player who is still a similar level to Bonifacio's worst case offensively.

Frankly, if it's not Bonifacio it will probably be Valbenua or Roberts or Murphy taking his job. I'm by no means saying Bonifacio is special. I'm saying Barney is that terrible.

I have acknowledged that Bonifacio has had stretches of tremendous play. I have also acknowledged that he is likely better offensively than Barney. The only thing that has ever been questioned is the degree to which he will be. And hence why I have presented the information that I have. Again, for the vast majority of Bonifacio's career he hasn't been a useful offensive player. I don't see much evidence that is likely to change. The degree of separation between Barney and Bonifacio is heightened by two periods of brilliance that if Bonifacio was expected to come close to replicating he wouldn't have been DFA'd. Again, Bonifacio will likely have a higher OBP than Barney next year. The question is how much.

Frankly if the choice is between Bonifacio, Barney, or Valbuena/Murphy platoon at 2B I would gladly take that last option.

 

[beckdawg]

I have acknowledged that Bonifacio has had stretches of tremendous play. I have also acknowledged that he is likely better offensively than Barney. The only thing that has ever been questioned is the degree to which he will be. And hence why I have presented the information that I have. Again, for the vast majority of Bonifacio's career he hasn't been a useful offensive player. I don't see much evidence that is likely to change. The degree of separation between Barney and Bonifacio is heightened by two periods of brilliance that if Bonifacio was expected to come close to replicating he wouldn't have been DFA'd. Again, Bonifacio will likely have a higher OBP than Barney next year. The question is how much.

Frankly if the choice is between Bonifacio, Barney, or Valbuena/Murphy platoon at 2B I would gladly take that last option.

I mean I guess my point of contention here has always just been it really doesn't matter if Bonifacio hasn't always been a useful offensive player because he's been far and away a more useful player than Barney. Like I said, I've never said Bonifacio was amazing. His peak is probably to be an average MLB player unless he some how sustains the 2011. Barney is a good glove and nothing else. Honestly, I just don't see the argument to be made for Barney as an every day player where as there is at least an outside shot if not better one for Bonifacio as an every day player.

If you want to argue Murphy/Valbuena vs Bonifacio I think that is a much better debate. But the way I see it is Barney doesn't provide any offense. He doesn't provide much if any flexibility defensively. All he provides is a good glove at 2B. On the contrary, Bonifacio provides super-utility, average defense and potentially average-above average offense not to mention if he doesn't start he also is a great bench player with his speed being able to pinch run. Hell, Bonifacio is also a good back up case for Sweeney/Lake/OF extravaganza.

So again, if the trade is Barney for Bonifacio straight up I'm taking that deal every day of the week.