The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[beckdawg]

He doesn't have the all-around game that Buxton or Tavares have. I think he could potentially move up a few more pegs, especially if the picture on his position becomes a bit clearer, but my personal opinon on Buxton, Tavares and even Miguel Sano are a bit higher. Still, I'm super pumped about Baez.

I've been critical of Baez's K% and I'm still concerned. But if he fixes that this year I'm not so sure.

If you take Buxton's A and A+ splits last year you're talking about 109 runs 12 HRs 77 RBIs 55 SBs with around a .330/.420/.510 in 574 PAs. He'll likely put on some more power and his average/OBP will drop as he moves up. A lot depends on how much power he develops and how much his average/OBP drops as he progresses. With these sort of numbers it's not difficult to envision him as the next Trout. A good range for him is probably Alex Rios to Trout. The midpoint would maybe be McCutchen.

As for Tavares, his last "full" season was in AA in 2012 where he had 83 runs 23 HRs 94 RBIs 10 SBs with .321/.380/.572 in 531 PAs. Based off that he looks more like a Jayson Werth, Justin Upton, and Matt Holliday type.

Sano between A+/AA had 86 runs, 35 HRs, 103 RBIs, 11 SBs with around a .280/.385/.610. His average/OBP seems high given his A/AA splits. Not a ton of great comparisons in the MLB currently but a better Pedro Alvarez might be fair.

Baez between A+ and AA last year had 98 runs, 37 HRs, 111 RBIs, 20 Sbs with around a .285/.340/.585. As such, I think right now you can say Baez is a better prospect than Sano because he's probably more a .250/.340/.570 guy than the .330/.424/.655 he hit in A+. As for Tavares and Buxton, a lot depends on Baez staying at SS. I'd argue Baez's power potential is worth more than what Tavares brings to the table but it's more a case of people like me worried if he actually hits for average. Baez has long been considered a boom or bust type and I think that still holds true for a lot of evaluators.

But, Buxton vs Baez is pretty interesting. I think in a lot of regards it's the prospect version of Trout vs Cabrera. The difference between Baez and Cabrera is for the moment he still has a shot at SS to be at least average defensively and he also has a bit more speed. Also, you're counting on Buxton to develop 20-25 HR power in this sort of comparison where as you're counting on Baez to strike out less.

 

[DewsSox79]

I've been critical of Baez's K% and I'm still concerned. But if he fixes that this year I'm not so sure.

If you take Buxton's A and A+ splits last year you're talking about 109 runs 12 HRs 77 RBIs 55 SBs with around a .330/.420/.510 in 574 PAs. He'll likely put on some more power and his average/OBP will drop as he moves up. A lot depends on how much power he develops and how much his average/OBP drops as he progresses. With these sort of numbers it's not difficult to envision him as the next Trout. A good range for him is probably Alex Rios to Trout. The midpoint would maybe be McCutchen.

As for Tavares, his last "full" season was in AA in 2012 where he had 83 runs 23 HRs 94 RBIs 10 SBs with .321/.380/.572in 531 PAs. Based off that he looks more like a Jayson Werth, Justin Upton, and Matt Holliday type.

Sano between A+/AA had 86 runs, 35 HRs, 103 RBIs, 11 SBs with around a .280/.385/.610. His average/OBP seems high given his A/AA splits. Not a ton of great comparisons in the MLB currently but a better Pedro Alvarez might be fair.

Baez between A+ and AA last year had 98 runs, 37 HRs, 111 RBIs, 20 Sbs with around a .285/.340/.585. As such, I think right now you can say Baez is a better prospect than Sano because he's probably more a .250/.340/.570 guy than the .330/.424/.655 he hit in A+. As for Tavares and Buxton, a lot depends on Baez staying at SS. I'd argue Baez's power potential is worth more than what Tavares brings to the table but it's more a case of people like me worried if he actually hits for average. Baez has long been considered a boom or bust type and I think that still holds true for a lot of evaluators.

But, Buxton vs Baez is pretty interesting. I think in a lot of regards it's the prospect version of Trout vs Cabrera. The difference between Baez and Cabrera is for the moment he still has a shot at SS to be at least average defensively and he also has a bit more speed. Also, you're counting on Buxton to develop 20-25 HR power in this sort of comparison where as you're counting on Baez to strike out less.

baez and cabrera in the same sentence? really?


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[brett05]

baez and cabrera in the same sentence? really?


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

I think he meant another name there. Had to of

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

 

[JosMin]

baez and cabrera in the same sentence? really?


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

I think he meant another name there. Had to of

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

He wasn't comparing Baez to Cabrera -- the correlation he was making between the "value" portrayed in the Trout/Cabrera argument for game's best player is similar to how some view Baez and Buxton, in the sense that Trout offers you a more polished game (much like Trout does), while Cabrera's premium is placed solely on his hitting tools -- he's a subpar runner and is average-at-best in the field.

 

[beckdawg]

He wasn't comparing Baez to Cabrera -- the correlation he was making between the "value" portrayed in the Trout/Cabrera argument for game's best player is similar to how some view Baez and Buxton, in the sense that Trout offers you a more polished game (much like Trout does), while Cabrera's premium is placed solely on his hitting tools -- he's a subpar runner and is average-at-best in the field.

Well this. But also Jason Parks of baseball prospectus is making that comparison as Baez's top end. Baez may never meet his top end but that would be it just as Buxton's top end may be Trout but he may never reach that either.

 

[brett05]

He wasn't comparing Baez to Cabrera -- the correlation he was making between the "value" portrayed in the Trout/Cabrera argument for game's best player is similar to how some view Baez and Buxton, in the sense that Trout offers you a more polished game (much like Trout does), while Cabrera's premium is placed solely on his hitting tools -- he's a subpar runner and is average-at-best in the field.

Sorry Jos. If you read the paragraph he clearly switches gears and puts Baez in Cabreras class. Anyone doing that is...is...just not right

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

I think every one needs to chill here. No one knows how good any prospect will get at one point. No one knew that Cabrera would have become what he did while he was in the minors still.

There is no need to diminish any players potential.

 

[brett05]

I think every one needs to chill here. No one knows how good any prospect will get at one point. No one knew that Cabrera would have become what he did while he was in the minors still.

There is no need to diminish any players potential.

True but no need to call someone as possibly the next Cabrera either

Sent from my SCH-I200 using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I think every one needs to chill here. No one knows how good any prospect will get at one point. No one knew that Cabrera would have become what he did while he was in the minors still.

There is no need to diminish any players potential.

It's more a case of potential vs what someone's current ability is. 20 year old Cabrera had this sort of potential. That's why he hit the majors when he did. But he wasn't today Cabrera as a rookie. Baez has probably the highest ceiling of any prospect in the minors save for maybe Buxton which is where the Buxton/Trout vs Baez/Cabrera comp started. This isn't over hyping Baez. There's very few players in the past 10 years who've had his sort of power. I brought this up in the hitting prospect topic i did but I think there were only 3 players who had a similar level of power in AA over the past 8 years as him. Mostuakes was one. Goldsmidt was another. I think Stanton was the third. None of those guys played SS. In particular, 1B and corner OF you expect to put up bigger power numbers. 3B you expect to a lessor degree because there's fewer guys who fit there(see guys like vitters and possibly bryant having to move to OF). If Baez stays at SS and has 40 HR power he is one of the rarest players in the minors. Tulow hit 25 last year and stole 1 base. His peak was 2009 with 32. No one's hit 35 HRs at SS since Bill Hall(WTF????) in 2006. Tejada in 2004 hit 34. And then you have A-rod's peak from 2003 and before.

So, to have arguably the best power hitter in the minors at one of the weakest positions hitting wise is quite valuable. Maybe Baez doesn't stay there. Maybe he never fixes his issues with K's. Cabrera in 2003 was the #12 prospect in baseball america's top 100 as a 3B. The year prior he was #38 as a SS. So, to see similarities between the two isn't that absurd.

Cabrera
A age 18 - .268/.328/.382 with 7 HRs in 465 PAs
A+ age 19 - .274/.333/.421 with 9 HRs in 545 PAs
AA age 20 - .365/.429/.609 with 10 HRs in 303 PAs

Baez
A age 19 - .333/.383/.596 with 12 HRs in 235 PAs
A+ age 19-20 - .256/.319/.507 with 21 HRs in 423 PAs
AA age 20 - .294/.346/.638 with 20 HRs in 240 PAs

Baez appears to be about half a season behind Cabrera in terms of reaching various levels. Baez has had 916 total minor PAs with .286/.342/.562 and 150 runs 53 HRs 158 RBIs 46 SB. Cabrera had 1597 PAs with .286/.350/.431 and 225 runs 28 HRs 228 RBIs 23 SB. As I've said before, what worries me with Baez is his K's. Cabrera had 262 in 1597 PAs vs 220 in 916 PAs for Baez. But to say you can't compare the two is a bit unfair to Baez. Baez is basically matching Cabrera's career triple slash only with substantially more power and Baez also has considerably more stolen bases. I'm not sure Baez can keep up with Cabrera's .321 career BA unless he fixes his issues with K's. But the rest appears there.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh and to add to all that

http://www.obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/baseball-prospectus-cubs-top-10-prospects.html

Baez might lack Buxton’s overall athleticism or Bogaerts’ polish, but the 21-year-old Puerto Rican might have the highest offensive ceiling of any player in the minors, a potential middle-of-the-order force capable of hitting for average and obnoxious game power. While he’s no longer a true boom-or-bust prospect, Baez carries more risk than the average high-end prospect with Double-A experience because of the extreme projections on his tools and the balls-to-the-wall approach he often brings to all sides of the game. As Baez matures and adds more patience at the plate and more confidence in the field, he should develop into one of the game’s elite players, a left-side infielder (short or third) with an offensive attack that some scouts project to achieve Miguel Cabrera-level heights, an extreme comparison but one that his elite bat speed and power potential could make a reality if everything clicks.

 

[CSF77]

You can not argue 37 HR's at A-AA level play. No matter how you spin it. He is in a select group right now.

Ya know he is going to SO. What I liked is his BB% improved to 10%. That means more to me. It means he is understanding the strike zone more and is laying off of pitches out of the strike zone.

He will be fine as a Cub.

 

[SilenceS]

You can not argue 37 HR's at A-AA level play. No matter how you spin it. He is in a select group right now.

Ya know he is going to SO. What I liked is his BB% improved to 10%. That means more to me. It means he is understanding the strike zone more and is laying off of pitches out of the strike zone.

He will be fine as a Cub.

Its about time that Baez gets the boom or bust tag off of him. I think Jason Parks said it in his last questions that he is no longer that type of prospect. People freak out to much over K's. Striking out is not the worst thing in the world. Would you prefer lower k rate, yes, but power hitter are always going to have semi high to high k rates. Baez biggest jump last year was as the season went on he started walking. He kept raising his OBP every month and if you notice thats when his power really started to come into play. Dont get it twisted. He is by far the best Cubs prospect since Prior and maybe the best hitting prospect in the past 30 years. Patterson was a number 1 ranked guy, but he was more like Buxton. His hit tool wasnt in the same category as Baez has become. Also, people talk about instincts with Almora but Baez is no slouch. Its why he has such a good SB rate in the minors. He isnt fast. He is probably a tick above average but he makes great reads when he steals bases. He could easily steal 15 to 20 bags a year for a good while. I think he needs to transition over to third because I just see him as a gold glover over there but I dont make those choices. HE has plenty of arm and a quick first step. It seems a natural fit. All in all. Baez isnt being declared the next Cabrera. They are saying his hit tools are so special that if he hits his ceiling it would be Miggy-esque. They are saying he has the most potential offensively out of anyone in the minors and I dont disagree. For all you non Cubs fans or Cubs fans that havent seen film on him. Watch him. Even to the casual baseball fan, the bat speed is insanely noticeable. He is man playing amongst children now. The majors is where we going to find out if he can fulfill those hefty comparisons.

 

[brett05]

Reports are Baker is a Mariner

 

[Boobaby1]

Reports are Baker is a Mariner

Good! 5.5 million to sit and rehab all year long is a waste, and I fully blame management for that one. I hope they learned their lesson.

 

[beckdawg]

People freak out to much over K's. Striking out is not the worst thing in the world.

I wouldn't say I'm freaking out about it. But it's something in his game that can really hold him back. I'm not even saying he can't fix it. But, to reach the miggy-like peak he needs to address that. If he hits at the average he has in the minors and then fixes the K rate issues he's got a good shot to be a .310-.330 type hitter. You then combine that with his power and you could be talking 4-5 more HRs a year vs a .270-.300 type hitter.

 

[CSF77]

Good! 5.5 million to sit and rehab all year long is a waste, and I fully blame management for that one. I hope they learned their lesson.

Baker chose not to stick with the Cubs and decided to move on.

What this tells me is he wanted to play competitive ball and did not want to sit on a rebuild.

 

[CSF77]

Mariners To Sign Scott Baker
By Steve Adams [January 29, 2014 at 12:34pm CST]
12:34pm: Baker has already passed his physical, and the deal will be announced later today, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com.

12:17pm: The Mariners have agreed to terms with right-hander Scott Baker on a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. Baker, who is represented by Octagon, will earn $1MM if he makes the team and can earn up to $3.25MM more via incentives, according to Cotillo (Twitter links).

The 32-year-old Baker underwent Tommy John surgery prior to the 2012 season -- his walk year with the Twins. He inked a one-year, $5.5MM contract with the Cubs last offseason, but persistent setbacks in his recovery limited him to three starts late in the season.

Baker's last significant big league action came in 2011, and it was also the best work of his career. In 134 innings for the Twins that season, the former second-round pick posted a 3.14 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Strong command and K/BB numbers have been typical of Baker throughout his career, as evidenced by his lifetime 3.4 K:BB ratio. Baker's skill-set seems to be fitting of Safeco Field; the extreme fly-ball pitcher has just a 34 percent ground-ball rate for his career.

Should Baker make the rotation out of Spring Training, he'll slot in behind aces Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Top prospect Taijuan Walker and right-hander Erasmo Ramirez are also candidates for the rotation, and the Mariners have been said to be on the lookout for a veteran starter to add to the mix as well (presumably, Baker is not that arm)


Cubs Looking At Starters, Will Not Re-Sign Scott Baker
By Jeff Todd [January 22, 2014 at 2:24pm CST]
After losing out on Masahiro Tanaka, the Cubs remain interested in adding rotation depth, likely in the form of a relatively minor signing, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Chicago will not be in the market for one of the top remaining free agent starter, such as former Cubbie Matt Garza, unless a golden opportunity arises.

Neither is the club interested in bringing back Scott Baker, Rogers adds. According to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (via Twitter), the Mariners and Indians are more likely landing spots for the 32-year-old righty. The Cubs signed Baker to a one-year, $5.5MM deal last year, but Baker was only able to make three starts after a long Tommy John rehab.

Chicago has been linked to other mid-tier starting options, Rogers notes, including Paul Maholm and Jason Hammel. Both pitchers would seem to fit the mold of the club's rotation signings from last year, which included Baker, Scott Feldman (one year, $6MM), and Carlos Villanueva (two years, $10MM). Internal candidates for the club's final rotation spot, according to Rogers, include Justin Grimm, Kyle Hendricks, and Chris Rusin.

 

[SilenceS]

Ty Youngfelt ‏@TyYoungfelt 54m

Cubs, Royals have discussed Emilio Bonifacio for Darwin Barney...

 

[TL1961]

Ty Youngfelt ‏@TyYoungfelt 54m

Cubs, Royals have discussed Emilio Bonifacio for Darwin Barney...

I don't know anything about Bonifacio, and even without looking it up, I am in favor of this move.

 

[daddies3angels]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bonifem01.shtml

He a decent player. Great thing about him he can play 2B, 3B and some OF. So he be a Utility guy for Cubs once Baez or Alacantara comes up