The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[brett05]

They are getting a TOR in the off season via FA. They are NOT trading any of the top prospects or Castro this off season.

You forgot the word 'hoping' and 'to' twice

 

[beckdawg]

Rizzo didn't swing and miss this badly but his overall statistics were very similar in his first call-up. If he struggles like this all of next season, there is a big problem but not yet

They're really not and I'm fairly sure I've explained this to you before but I'll do it again. If you want to make the suggestion that Baez and Rizzo's first stint have similar batting average then fine. That's a perfectly fair statement. However, if you go so far as to say their overall statistics are "very similar" it leads me to believe you don't understand their representation.

Let's start with walk rate. In 153 PAs, Rizzo walked 13.7% of the time or 21 times. I don't think I need to explain why walks are a good thing. But I will go so far as to suggest that walks are often a indication of a good hitter. Obviously they aren't the only thing but if you're walking about 10% you generally have a shot to be a useful player. Case in point, Valbuena hit .218 last year but with a 13.6% walk rate and decent defense was around a 2 fWAR player. Conversely, Baez has walked 12 times in 187 PAs(6.4%). That's not even league average which is 7.7%. For some perspective, over the past 4 years a 6.4% walk rate would put him at tied for 69th worst out of 283 qualified hitters. At 13.7% Rizzo would have bee 8th best on that list. Clearly that number normalizes some over more at bats but the point here being that there is a vast difference between the two.

Now let's go to k's. At 30.1% Rizzo's numbers were high. However, Baez at 41.7% is 2/5th's higher. That's significant. And even if you make the argument that Baez drops his current k rate the 10.8% Rizzo has to his career K rate, that means Baez would be at a 30.9% clip. Over the past 4 seasons only 8 players have K'd at that rate. Chris Carter in 2013(36.2% 0.4 fWAR), 2012 Adam Dunn(34.2% 1.8 fWAR), 2014 Chris Davis(33% 0.4 fWAR), 2013 Mike Nappoli(32.4% 3.9 fWAR), 2013 Dan Uggla(31.8% 0.4 fWAR), 2011 Mark Reynolds(31.6% -0.1 fWAR), 2014 Chris Carter(31.4% 2.0 fWAR), and 2013 Adam Dunn(31.1% -0.2 fWAR). The worst walk rate any of those players had is Chris Carter this year at 9.7% with the second worse being Chris Davis this year at 11.4%. And of those players, WAR suggest that most of them save for Nappoli(12.6% bb rate) were below league average(2 fWAR). I know some don't buy the concept of WAR but even if you ignore that to suggest he's at a similar level to those players would be a fairly massive disappointment in most fans eyes I'd imagine. Additionally, I'm not even sure you can consider him in a similar light given he's not likely to walk any where near as high as those players.

Now on to BABIP. Rizzo's BABIP in 2011 was .210. That's 50 points less than his disappointing 2013 campaign. Given league average is usually .300ish and given in his 2 good years of 2012 and 2014 he's bee at .310 and .298 it seems pretty clear that a lot of his issues were him hitting it where people were. Call that bad luck or whatever you want but as I suggested in regard to his 2013 BABIP as that normalizes his average will come up. On the contrary, Baez's BABIP sits at .253 currently. That's low but not low enough to explain away a .178 batting average. If you give him the .300 BABIP benefit of the doubt that puts him at a .226 average. If you push Rizzo's average up to .300 BABIP he'd also have been a .231 hitter but rather than a .282 on base Baez would have instead Rizzo would have had .371 on base. Again, 89 point points of on base is significant.

If you look at batted ball data, that too favors Rizzo's 2011 season. His line drive rate is 13.4% vs 12.6% for Baez. His infield fly ball rate was 5.6% vs an astronomical 21.4% for Baez. To put that into perspective, only 2 players in the past 3+ years have had over 20% and that was Gordon Beckham in 2011(21.0%) and Chris young also in 2011(20.5%). Unsurprisingly, one good area for Baez is his HR/FB at 21.4% vs 2.8% rate for Rizzo. To add to this, if you look at plate discipline data, it shows Rizzo had a 34.7% at swinging at pitches outside of the zone vs 41.9% for Baez. Rizzo had a 66.1% rate at pitches in the zone vs 56.9% for Baez. To add to this, Baez's O-Contact% which is contact on pitches outside the zone was 41.3% vs 50.0% for Rizzo. They have basically identical rates inside the zone on contact.

If you put that batted ball data together with his plate discipline data as well as what you can easily see watching the games it tells you that Baez is much more of a free swinger. In particular, the fact he's popping so many pitches up tells you along with his lower line drive rate and high O-swing% that his pitch selection is pretty poor. Unsurprisingly, when he has connected with pitches he's hitting a lot of homers. While that may seem like a positive, I think in his case it may be reinforcing him in a negative way. Put another way, he's being reward occasionally for his poor plate discipline and all out swing.

Either way, you can draw your own conclusions going forward on Baez but to suggest that Baez and Rizzo's first stint is similar is ignorant of the data. Rizzo was already a far more controlled hitter in 2011. He took walks. He had a very high Z-Swing% rate and a relatively low O-Swing%. Both of these were in line with his career line currently. Rizzo's flaws were arguably his contact rate(10% less than his career rate), his line drive rate which is likely tied in with his contact(7% below his career rate) and his HR/FB rate which again see contact(12% below career rate). Put another way, Rizzo had a good approach and got poor results. I don't profess to be a hitting coach but my guess is he likely had mechanical flaw in his swing or didn't know how to handle certain pitches and that allowed pitchers to exploit him and thus draw poor contact.

On the contrary, Baez thus far isn't approaching at bats well. He's getting himself out by chasing pitches outside the zone. In that regard he's an immature hitter. What makes me doubt Baez is that type of immaturity is often very difficult for players to overcome because they got the majors doing this and to vastly change your approach isn't easy. Even players who've had success after these sort of numbers typically take several years. Jose Bautista in particular comes to mind because his first major league season had a similar K rate and walk rate to Baez. He didn't become an above average player(2+ fWAR) until he was 29. These are statistically similar players to Baez. Outside of Bo Jackson, Gorman Thomas and what now appears to be a flukey 2013 for Chris Davis, there isn't a lot of promise there. They all have been replacement level players and that 60+ years of data.

In summary, if people want to believe in Baez going forward that's fine. I think that it's overly optimistic but that's people's right. However, please let's stop acting like this year in the majors is some how a positive for Baez. Obviously the expectation was at least some struggle but I don't think there's anything he's done to show improvement(yet) which was the general idea behind the struggle. Also, let's not compare him to Rizzo for crying out loud. For one, they aren't even remotely similar as I've shown and for two the implication is that struggle and then finally success is the norm when in fact the norm is typically struggle and wash out entirely. Rizzo, and most other major league players, is an exception not the norm. This belief is self serving at its finest which is ironic considering the cubs prospects in general over the past 10 years. I get that to some extent that's what being a fan is but there needs to be at least some objectiveness here. Usually, a player struggling in his first stint in the majors means he's a bad player. Occasionally, it's just growing pains. As of right now, Baez has done nothing to show he belongs in the second group and to suggest otherwise is incredibly naive.

 

[beckdawg]

Also sorry for the essay but man do incomparable things being compared bother me. Baez has much more in common with 2014 Mike Olt than he does with 2011 Rizzo down to the k's, the HR rate as well as to an extent the walks average and iso.

 

[chibears55]

You forgot the word 'hoping' and 'to' twice

Even if they dont sign lester or scherzer or a TOR type starter in off season their not going to trade their core position guys in Baez Soler Bryant Alcantara Castro Rizzo or Russell this off season.

Sure technically your right im sure he raised some GMs eyebrows in a negative way with his start but given his age and high potential im sure as there a handful of GMs that may think like you and would hesitate to pull the trigger for him there a handful of GMs that would do it in a heartbeat. .

Lets just be clear that this off season there is no way their trading any of these core players, next off season after the dust clears and positions are established and Russell comes into the picture, then yes we will probably see a big trade with someone.

 

[SilenceS]

They're really not and I'm fairly sure I've explained this to you before but I'll do it again. If you want to make the suggestion that Baez and Rizzo's first stint have similar batting average then fine. That's a perfectly fair statement. However, if you go so far as to say their overall statistics are "very similar" it leads me to believe you don't understand their representation.

Let's start with walk rate. In 153 PAs, Rizzo walked 13.7% of the time or 21 times. I don't think I need to explain why walks are a good thing. But I will go so far as to suggest that walks are often a indication of a good hitter. Obviously they aren't the only thing but if you're walking about 10% you generally have a shot to be a useful player. Case in point, Valbuena hit .218 last year but with a 13.6% walk rate and decent defense was around a 2 fWAR player. Conversely, Baez has walked 12 times in 187 PAs(6.4%). That's not even league average which is 7.7%. For some perspective, over the past 4 years a 6.4% walk rate would put him at tied for 69th worst out of 283 qualified hitters. At 13.7% Rizzo would have bee 8th best on that list. Clearly that number normalizes some over more at bats but the point here being that there is a vast difference between the two.

Now let's go to k's. At 30.1% Rizzo's numbers were high. However, Baez at 41.7% is 2/5th's higher. That's significant. And even if you make the argument that Baez drops his current k rate the 10.8% Rizzo has to his career K rate, that means Baez would be at a 30.9% clip. Over the past 4 seasons only 8 players have K'd at that rate. Chris Carter in 2013(36.2% 0.4 fWAR), 2012 Adam Dunn(34.2% 1.8 fWAR), 2014 Chris Davis(33% 0.4 fWAR), 2013 Mike Nappoli(32.4% 3.9 fWAR), 2013 Dan Uggla(31.8% 0.4 fWAR), 2011 Mark Reynolds(31.6% -0.1 fWAR), 2014 Chris Carter(31.4% 2.0 fWAR), and 2013 Adam Dunn(31.1% -0.2 fWAR). The worst walk rate any of those players had is Chris Carter this year at 9.7% with the second worse being Chris Davis this year at 11.4%. And of those players, WAR suggest that most of them save for Nappoli(12.6% bb rate) were below league average(2 fWAR). I know some don't buy the concept of WAR but even if you ignore that to suggest he's at a similar level to those players would be a fairly massive disappointment in most fans eyes I'd imagine. Additionally, I'm not even sure you can consider him in a similar light given he's not likely to walk any where near as high as those players.

Now on to BABIP. Rizzo's BABIP in 2011 was .210. That's 50 points less than his disappointing 2013 campaign. Given league average is usually .300ish and given in his 2 good years of 2012 and 2014 he's bee at .310 and .298 it seems pretty clear that a lot of his issues were him hitting it where people were. Call that bad luck or whatever you want but as I suggested in regard to his 2013 BABIP as that normalizes his average will come up. On the contrary, Baez's BABIP sits at .253 currently. That's low but not low enough to explain away a .178 batting average. If you give him the .300 BABIP benefit of the doubt that puts him at a .226 average. If you push Rizzo's average up to .300 BABIP he'd also have been a .231 hitter but rather than a .282 on base Baez would have instead Rizzo would have had .371 on base. Again, 89 point points of on base is significant.

If you look at batted ball data, that too favors Rizzo's 2011 season. His line drive rate is 13.4% vs 12.6% for Baez. His infield fly ball rate was 5.6% vs an astronomical 21.4% for Baez. To put that into perspective, only 2 players in the past 3+ years have had over 20% and that was Gordon Beckham in 2011(21.0%) and Chris young also in 2011(20.5%). Unsurprisingly, one good area for Baez is his HR/FB at 21.4% vs 2.8% rate for Rizzo. To add to this, if you look at plate discipline data, it shows Rizzo had a 34.7% at swinging at pitches outside of the zone vs 41.9% for Baez. Rizzo had a 66.1% rate at pitches in the zone vs 56.9% for Baez. To add to this, Baez's O-Contact% which is contact on pitches outside the zone was 41.3% vs 50.0% for Rizzo. They have basically identical rates inside the zone on contact.

If you put that batted ball data together with his plate discipline data as well as what you can easily see watching the games it tells you that Baez is much more of a free swinger. In particular, the fact he's popping so many pitches up tells you along with his lower line drive rate and high O-swing% that his pitch selection is pretty poor. Unsurprisingly, when he has connected with pitches he's hitting a lot of homers. While that may seem like a positive, I think in his case it may be reinforcing him in a negative way. Put another way, he's being reward occasionally for his poor plate discipline and all out swing.

Either way, you can draw your own conclusions going forward on Baez but to suggest that Baez and Rizzo's first stint is similar is ignorant of the data. Rizzo was already a far more controlled hitter in 2011. He took walks. He had a very high Z-Swing% rate and a relatively low O-Swing%. Both of these were in line with his career line currently. Rizzo's flaws were arguably his contact rate(10% less than his career rate), his line drive rate which is likely tied in with his contact(7% below his career rate) and his HR/FB rate which again see contact(12% below career rate). Put another way, Rizzo had a good approach and got poor results. I don't profess to be a hitting coach but my guess is he likely had mechanical flaw in his swing or didn't know how to handle certain pitches and that allowed pitchers to exploit him and thus draw poor contact.

On the contrary, Baez thus far isn't approaching at bats well. He's getting himself out by chasing pitches outside the zone. In that regard he's an immature hitter. What makes me doubt Baez is that type of immaturity is often very difficult for players to overcome because they got the majors doing this and to vastly change your approach isn't easy. Even players who've had success after these sort of numbers typically take several years. Jose Bautista in particular comes to mind because his first major league season had a similar K rate and walk rate to Baez. He didn't become an above average player(2+ fWAR) until he was 29. These are statistically similar players to Baez. Outside of Bo Jackson, Gorman Thomas and what now appears to be a flukey 2013 for Chris Davis, there isn't a lot of promise there. They all have been replacement level players and that 60+ years of data.

In summary, if people want to believe in Baez going forward that's fine. I think that it's overly optimistic but that's people's right. However, please let's stop acting like this year in the majors is some how a positive for Baez. Obviously the expectation was at least some struggle but I don't think there's anything he's done to show improvement(yet) which was the general idea behind the struggle. Also, let's not compare him to Rizzo for crying out loud. For one, they aren't even remotely similar as I've shown and for two the implication is that struggle and then finally success is the norm when in fact the norm is typically struggle and wash out entirely. Rizzo, and most other major league players, is an exception not the norm. This belief is self serving at its finest which is ironic considering the cubs prospects in general over the past 10 years. I get that to some extent that's what being a fan is but there needs to be at least some objectiveness here. Usually, a player struggling in his first stint in the majors means he's a bad player. Occasionally, it's just growing pains. As of right now, Baez has done nothing to show he belongs in the second group and to suggest otherwise is incredibly naive.

I have a question? How much have you truly watched Baez in the minors and the majors?

 

[SilenceS]

Welcome to The Show, Javier Baez. Meet Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.

When the Cubs forced the issue in early August and called up Baez from Triple-A Iowa, they knew it could get ugly, an out-of-control swing plus a September schedule loaded with contending teams. It would give an elite prospect with world-class bat speed something to think about all winter.

There are only nine games left after Thursday night’s sloppy 8-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Cubs get another Cy Young Award winner in Kershaw on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

“I’m just taking my ABs one-by-one and trying to get better in all of them,” Baez said. “Try to see good pitches in the zone.”

[MORE CUBS: Darwin Barney's not counting down the days with Dodgers]

These growing pains are worth remembering whenever Cubs fans and the Chicago media become giddy about the idea of 2015.

When Kris Bryant stopped by Wrigley Field on Wednesday to pick up another award after a 43-homer/110-RBI season, the consensus national minor league player of the year was asked if watching Baez struggle caused any concerns about his own development.

“No, it doesn’t scare me at all,” Bryant said. “Javy is kind of known for struggling at first and then turning it around. The kid’s a freak of nature.

“I have all the confidence in the world in him. I hit behind him for — what was it? — 50 games in Iowa, and I watched him do some incredible things.”

[MORE CUBS: Cubs trade in Kane County for South Bend Class-A affiliate]

Baez looked like a table-setter against Greinke, getting on base with a walk and a single. Jorge Soler — a young hitter who’s already shown a plan of attack — drove in Baez both times. Another single and a ninth-inning strikeout against Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen moved Baez’s average to .178, with 78 strikeouts in 187 plate appearances.

The rookie double-play combination of Baez (one) and Logan Watkins (two) also combined for three errors. This is the crash course the Cubs signed up for, and it hasn’t blindsided the president of baseball operations.

“As tough as it can be to watch sometimes, this is exactly what Javy needs,” Theo Epstein said. “He’s going to end up going into the offseason reflecting back on this. Over time, it will sink in that despite what pitchers do to him, he controls the at-bat. He can’t get away from his strengths. He can do as much damage as anyone in the game when he’s patient and gets a pitch that he can drive.

“Those are things you can’t just tell somebody. Hitting coach would be the easiest job in baseball — not the hardest job in baseball — if you could just tell someone that and it would sink in through osmosis somehow. It just doesn’t work that way. Players need to figure it out naturally.”

[MORE CUBS: What a difference a year makes for Kyle Hendricks]

Baez has been talked about so much that it’s easy to forget he’s only 21 years old and had played only 54 games above the A-ball level until this season. He’s still put up nine homers and 18 RBIs in his first 43 games with the Cubs.

But that comes with the territory now. National websites from Deadspin (“Is Javier Baez’s Rocket-Powered Swing Built to Last?”) to Grantland (“The First Hundred PAs: The Curious Case of Cubs Rookie Javier Baez, Slugger and Strikeout Machine”) have caught on to the story.

“This is the reality for young players,” Epstein said. “Almost without exception, young players come up, and after perhaps an initial period of success when the adrenaline’s carrying them, the league then adjusts and their weaknesses get exploited.

“And then it’s a struggle (to) adjust your game (back) to cover those holes and then force the league to adjust to you again. It’s a constant cat-and-mouse game.”

[MORE CUBS: Edwin Jackson gets Clayton Kershaw in return to Cubs rotation]

The Major League Baseball logo tattooed onto the back of his neck shows Baez won’t lack for confidence or wonder if he belongs here.

“That is Javy’s pattern,” Epstein said. “It just takes him a little bit of time to have that light go on at a new level. I think it’s part of his aggressive nature, but he doesn’t back down. He has a very strong will, strong mental makeup, where he will continue to fight and scrap until he does figure it out. And when he does, he makes up for it, because someone’s got to pay.”

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-say-struggling-show-exactly-what-javier-baez-needs

Lol, that may be my favorite Theo line in the bold. Becuase someone's got to pay! haha

 

[brett05]

You can only hope

 

[chibears55]

Anyone know if they keep track of this..
I was looking over Baez stats just to see how he has been over the last 10 games just in making contact and putting ball in play and found this to be interesting in his overall stats...

After his first AB today
he now has 180 ABs with 31 hits for a .172 AVG

he has K'd 82 times in his 180 AB meaning he put the ball in play 98 times of which he has 31 hits in those 98 balls in play, which would give him an AVG of .316 when he puts the ball in play.

Just curious to know where he would rank amongst hitters with balls put in play if you take away strikeouts..

 

[brett05]

Anyone know if they keep track of this..
I was looking over Baez stats just to see how he has been over the last 10 games just in making contact and putting ball in play and found this to be interesting in his overall stats...

After his first AB today
he now has 180 ABs with 31 hits for a .172 AVG

he has K'd 82 times in his 180 AB meaning he put the ball in play 98 times of which he has 31 hits in those 98 balls in play, which would give him an AVG of .316 when he puts the ball in play.

Just curious to know where he would rank amongst hitters with balls put in play if you take away strikeouts..

Babip

 

[chibears55]

Babip

Thanks.. .316 is impressive but not as impressive as I thought as it would rank him 60th in baseball..

Surprisingly he ahead of Rizzo who at .299 but I feel that shift has a lot to do with that..

 

[chibears55]

I predict either an oblique , back, or broken ankle as a future Baez injury due to his swing....

 

[beckdawg]

I have a question? How much have you truly watched Baez in the minors and the majors?

I fail to see what relevance that has. I said myself I don't profess to be a hitting coach. My standpoint is and always has been/will be looking at things from a numerical standpoint since I know **** all about teaching hitting while I actually understand many of the concepts behind metrics which more casual fans often don't. It's where I can contribute useful information vs mindless guess.

But if you must know, I watch every cubs game I get on tv even when they are shitty. I don't see much minor league stuff other than video clips from highlights and when places do breakdowns. However, I do actively seek out sources who(as opposed to me) A) do know what the hell they are talking about in terms of hitting/pitching mechanics and B) break down cubs players with that knowledge. For example, a day maybe 2 ago I posted the fangraphs article talking about Arrieta's change. I'll also note that I've actively been posting the fangraphs organizational charts for teams that is from a former scout which does often have video breakdowns of players from both minor league games and batting practice. So, it's not like all I do is sit and watch stats daily.

I also really don't agree with the idea some have that it's too early to draw a conclusion on Baez. Teams draw conclusions on players on short sample sizes all the time. Brett Jackson got exactly 142 PAs and 44 games in the majors before falling out of favor and ultimately traded. Felix Pie got 287 PAs and 130 games in the majors before the cubs cut ties. Hee Seop Choi had 302 PAs with the cubs before he was traded to the Marlins. Josh Vitters has 109 PAs and most are ready to cut him loose. Mike Olt had 204 PAs in the first half before being sent down and most were ready to let him go with texas having already done so after 40 MLB PAs. For right or wrong, Cashner had 65 IP and again most were fine when he was traded. Cashner's trade opposite Rizzo was dealt by SD after 153 PAs. Tyler Colvin had 617 PAs and again few cried about him being dealt. Ronny Cedeno had around 405 PAs when he was dealt. Juan Cruz was a top 10 prospect and pitched less than 200 innings for the cubs. Bobby Hill had 215 PAs before they sent him off for ARam. All of those players were top 100 prospects of varying degrees and I'm sure if I looked more I could come up with any number of similar cases with highly rated prospects with the cubs and/or other teams. MLB isn't a league that is patient. With 197 PAs already what makes Baez different? If the cubs aren't happy with his progress he can just as easily be dealt as any of those players were. With the possible exception of Cashner(you know I'd take Rizzo every day but I'll humor you), the cubs made the right move dealing those players when they did and perhaps should have done so sooner. More patience from a new team didn't make those players better in most cases.

As I said before, people can draw their own conclusions on his future success/failure. All I'm trying to show is that the case for him being untouchable is far from a lock. Also, I want people to consider the vastly difference in public perception between Olt and Baez despite remarkably similar bb/k rates, triple slash and ISO. Admittedly a 25 year old vs a 21 year isn't the same situation. I'm not even trying to suggest people were wrong thinking Olt was crap in July. However, if Olt hadn't started hitting in September we're probably talking about him being on his 3rd team before he's 27. If Baez doesn't start hitting soon I think we'll likely talking about him being on his second team before he's 23.

 

[beckdawg]

Anyone know if they keep track of this..
I was looking over Baez stats just to see how he has been over the last 10 games just in making contact and putting ball in play and found this to be interesting in his overall stats...

After his first AB today
he now has 180 ABs with 31 hits for a .172 AVG

he has K'd 82 times in his 180 AB meaning he put the ball in play 98 times of which he has 31 hits in those 98 balls in play, which would give him an AVG of .316 when he puts the ball in play.

Just curious to know where he would rank amongst hitters with balls put in play if you take away strikeouts..

Not sure I'm following your numbers here. Brett was right on BABIP being batting average on balls in play. But his BABIP isn't .316. It's .239. He's gt 82 K's and 13 walks. You're presumably also counting HR's as "in play" which BABIP doesn't because home runs aren't "in play." Thus he has 22 hits(excluding 9 HRs) in 92(after today) at bats in play.

You might question the HR thing as some have but you have to consider the reason people use BABIP which is to essentially measure fortune. I'm probably not putting this as elegant as can be but in a nutshell the idea is that to some extent hitters can't control where they hit the ball. So, if you are hitting the ball right at someone as a line drive you're a bit unfortunate because a foot or two over and it's maybe a double. Rule of thumb is .300 BABIP is league average though it can vary player to player. Faster players can often be in the .330+ range with their ability to beat out infield singles while conversely slow players often will have lower BABIPs.

Another thing to watch out for is batted ball data. While a cursory look at Baez's .239 BABIP might seem to suggest he's been unlucky, batted ball(fangraphs is great for this) data shows he's had 20.5% of his in play balls have been infield flies. To give you some idea of the difference and why I was high on Rizzo coming into this year, if you compare 2013 Rizzo's .258 BABIP and 9.9% infield fly to where Baez you can see a pretty big difference. You're also talking about 19.6% line drives for Rizzo vs 12.4% for Baez. The conclusion to be drawn here was 2013 Rizzo comparatively was making better contact with pitches because he wasn't popping as many pitches up and was driving more pitches. As I said many times, the reasoning for that change in Rizzo's at bats isn't really my specialty but that's change is one of the large reasons for Rizzo's disappointing 2013.

As an added piece to this, BABIP is also useful when talking about pitchers. Often a pitcher can have an inflated ERA because the defense behind him isn't good and thus allows higher BABIP. This is semi-related to FIP(fielding independent pitching) and one of the reason stats people like to use it. The idea being that pitchers really only have control over HRs, walks and K's. Any ball put in play requires his defense to make a play.

 

[SilenceS]

I fail to see what relevance that has. I said myself I don't profess to be a hitting coach. My standpoint is and always has been/will be looking at things from a numerical standpoint since I know **** all about teaching hitting while I actually understand many of the concepts behind metrics which more casual fans often don't. It's where I can contribute useful information vs mindless guess.

But if you must know, I watch every cubs game I get on tv even when they are shitty. I don't see much minor league stuff other than video clips from highlights and when places do breakdowns. However, I do actively seek out sources who(as opposed to me) A) do know what the hell they are talking about in terms of hitting/pitching mechanics and B) break down cubs players with that knowledge. For example, a day maybe 2 ago I posted the fangraphs article talking about Arrieta's change. I'll also note that I've actively been posting the fangraphs organizational charts for teams that is from a former scout which does often have video breakdowns of players from both minor league games and batting practice. So, it's not like all I do is sit and watch stats daily.

I also really don't agree with the idea some have that it's too early to draw a conclusion on Baez. Teams draw conclusions on players on short sample sizes all the time. Brett Jackson got exactly 142 PAs and 44 games in the majors before falling out of favor and ultimately traded. Felix Pie got 287 PAs and 130 games in the majors before the cubs cut ties. Hee Seop Choi had 302 PAs with the cubs before he was traded to the Marlins. Josh Vitters has 109 PAs and most are ready to cut him loose. Mike Olt had 204 PAs in the first half before being sent down and most were ready to let him go with texas having already done so after 40 MLB PAs. For right or wrong, Cashner had 65 IP and again most were fine when he was traded. Cashner's trade opposite Rizzo was dealt by SD after 153 PAs. Tyler Colvin had 617 PAs and again few cried about him being dealt. Ronny Cedeno had around 405 PAs when he was dealt. Juan Cruz was a top 10 prospect and pitched less than 200 innings for the cubs. Bobby Hill had 215 PAs before they sent him off for ARam. All of those players were top 100 prospects of varying degrees and I'm sure if I looked more I could come up with any number of similar cases with highly rated prospects with the cubs and/or other teams. MLB isn't a league that is patient. With 197 PAs already what makes Baez different? If the cubs aren't happy with his progress he can just as easily be dealt as any of those players were. With the possible exception of Cashner(you know I'd take Rizzo every day but I'll humor you), the cubs made the right move dealing those players when they did and perhaps should have done so sooner. More patience from a new team didn't make those players better in most cases.

As I said before, people can draw their own conclusions on his future success/failure. All I'm trying to show is that the case for him being untouchable is far from a lock. Also, I want people to consider the vastly difference in public perception between Olt and Baez despite remarkably similar bb/k rates, triple slash and ISO. Admittedly a 25 year old vs a 21 year isn't the same situation. I'm not even trying to suggest people were wrong thinking Olt was crap in July. However, if Olt hadn't started hitting in September we're probably talking about him being on his 3rd team before he's 27. If Baez doesn't start hitting soon I think we'll likely talking about him being on his second team before he's 23.

Unless you know Baez timing and mechanics you will never know why things do what they do. You can get mad and I dont really care. I agree with some. Its life. The funny thing is you dont understand or see talent over other talent. Just looking at numbers does nothing for Baez. I have watched him in AAA. I have watched him the majors. I know when he is funky and I know when he is right. I am not saying I know if he will make it cause I dont. I am no better then you but I suggest you watch and study before you judge.

 

[chibears55]

Not sure I'm following your numbers here. Brett was right on BABIP being batting average on balls in play. But his BABIP isn't .316. It's .239. He's gt 82 K's and 13 walks. You're presumably also counting HR's as "in play" which BABIP doesn't because home runs aren't "in play." Thus he has 22 hits(excluding 9 HRs) in 92(after today) at bats in play.

You might question the HR thing as some have but you have to consider the reason people use BABIP which is to essentially measure fortune. I'm probably not putting this as elegant as can be but in a nutshell the idea is that to some extent hitters can't control where they hit the ball. So, if you are hitting the ball right at someone as a line drive you're a bit unfortunate because a foot or two over and it's maybe a double. Rule of thumb is .300 BABIP is league average though it can vary player to player. Faster players can often be in the .330+ range with their ability to beat out infield singles while conversely slow players often will have lower BABIPs.

Another thing to watch out for is batted ball data. While a cursory look at Baez's .239 BABIP might seem to suggest he's been unlucky, batted ball(fangraphs is great for this) data shows he's had 20.5% of his in play balls have been infield flies. To give you some idea of the difference and why I was high on Rizzo coming into this year, if you compare 2013 Rizzo's .258 BABIP and 9.9% infield fly to where Baez you can see a pretty big difference. You're also talking about 19.6% line drives for Rizzo vs 12.4% for Baez. The conclusion to be drawn here was 2013 Rizzo comparatively was making better contact with pitches because he wasn't popping as many pitches up and was driving more pitches. As I said many times, the reasoning for that change in Rizzo's at bats isn't really my specialty but that's change is one of the large reasons for Rizzo's disappointing 2013.

As an added piece to this, BABIP is also useful when talking about pitchers. Often a pitcher can have an inflated ERA because the defense behind him isn't good and thus allows higher BABIP. This is semi-related to FIP(fielding independent pitching) and one of the reason stats people like to use it. The idea being that pitchers really only have control over HRs, walks and K's. Any ball put in play requires his defense to make a play.

Kinda dumb they dont include HRs , its a ball put in play

 

[brett05]

Beckdawg

Im going to pay you the best comliment I can...I hope you never mod.

The two other great posters fell off severely in frequency and quality since becoming full mods. I would miss your posts.

You have top notch analysis. Your last was dead on.

Thanks for your posts!

 

[Parade_Rain]

So then I should be a mod.

 

[brett05]

So then I should be a mod.

No. I don't want you as a mod either

 

[Parade_Rain]

No. I don't want you as a mod either

I wouldn't ban you.

 

[brett05]

I wouldn't ban you.

I know...and the site would lose if you modded