The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Kinda dumb they dont include HRs , its a ball put in play

Well for what you're wanting yeah I can see why that seems dumb but like I said, that's not really what it's being used for. In reality, it's not that it matters that much. You can always add them back in. I just wanted to make sure you realized where you were off.

 

[chibears55]

Well for what you're wanting yeah I can see why that seems dumb but like I said, that's not really what it's being used for. In reality, it's not that it matters that much. You can always add them back in. I just wanted to make sure you realized where you were off.

Makes those other guys AVGs that much more impressive

 

[beckdawg]

Unless you know Baez timing and mechanics you will never know why things do what they do. You can get mad and I dont really care. I agree with some. Its life. The funny thing is you dont understand or see talent over other talent. Just looking at numbers does nothing for Baez. I have watched him in AAA. I have watched him the majors. I know when he is funky and I know when he is right. I am not saying I know if he will make it cause I dont. I am no better then you but I suggest you watch and study before you judge.

Who's mad? I'm certainly not. Also, when have I ever said Baez wasn't talented? Pretty sure in most of my talk about him I've said his natural talent is enough to be one of the best in the game. In fact, most of my statements probably said something to the effect that his problem is he is relying too much on talent and that he shows little polish. Also, did you even read what I said? I do watch him(and any other cub player) as much as I get the chance to.

I'll be honest here. Mechanics are something I'm not particularly interested in because I remember when Prior was coming up the talk was about his perfect mechanics and how he would stay away from injuries because of that. And I've also seen people with supposed funky mechanics succeed with no issues. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they are hogwash and have no value. As I said before, I really don't understand them on a deep enough level to talk intelligently on them. I understand some of the basic concepts but I'm not going to sit here and tell you why Baez needs to change his "hammer" because such and such will fix him. I posted a quite detailed article talking about Baez's mechanics less than a week ago. So, I frankly find you're characterization of all stats and no knowledge on mechanics to be off. Just because I choose to avoid making a fool of myself talking about something I don't know as well doesn't mean I don't listen to others who do.

I also know perfectly well that players can make that sort of change and then suddenly become different players. I've mentioned Bautista a lot in talk about Baez. He'd be the very definition of a player making a major mechanical change. I also realize that can start to appear as noise in data if you don't understand on a deeper level mechanics. This is probably why I was unconvinced on Arrieta until around July. I owned up to being wrong on him. However, the great thing about stats is over a long enough time frame they always normalize. After 3 months, Arrieta seemed like small sample size noise, after a full year of this it appears to be his new norm. If and when Baez makes that change I'll change my opinion.

Regardless, we're talking about someone who is hitting .171/.233/.348 with 41.1% K rate. Rationalize it however you like but until that improves you're not talking about a major league player. Baez has hit worse in Septemeber than he did in August. As I said with Olt, the fan bias here is obvious. If you change Baez's name with Barney no one would even give a shit about a player hitting that poorly. That same Barney everyone talked about as garbage(rightly so) hit .208/.266/.303 last year. Being 21 shouldn't entirely shield you from that. Being 21 gives you time to change but you still have to make that change. Historically speaking, players who've debuted like this haven't made the change. If people want to believe he will make that change that's fine but it's based on faith not empirical data. My issue is people seem to believe that this sort of struggle is common and that people generally turn things around. That's not the case. It's rare that players who can k at a 40% rate even get to the majors.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'll be honest here. Mechanics are something I'm not particularly interested in because I remember when Prior was coming up the talk was about his perfect mechanics and how he would stay away from injuries because of that.

According to some of the experts I've seen regarding pitching mechanics, his mechanics weren't good, but I do remember at the time people loved his mechanics. That was before people really put everything in slomo and analyzed.

Also, according to Bautista, he didn't make mechanical changes. He changed the timing of when he started his loading process. That's more mental than physical.

 

[beckdawg]

According to some of the experts I've seen regarding pitching mechanics, his mechanics weren't good, but I do remember at the time people loved his mechanics. That was before people really put everything in slomo and analyzed.

Well that's another issue though. What's good mechanics today doesn't necessarily mean it's what will be considered good 10 years from now. I guess to put it a better way, I don't care how someone becomes a .300 hitter. You could be someone like Vlad Guerrero who would hit some pitches that bounced to the plate. You could be Ted Williams. The "how" matters less to me than the result. If someone brings up a point that the "how" on <x> player doesn't match the results then I give that it's due importance. That's when the "how" matters to me.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well that's another issue though. What's good mechanics today doesn't necessarily mean it's what will be considered good 10 years from now. I guess to put it a better way, I don't care how someone becomes a .300 hitter. You could be someone like Vlad Guerrero who would hit some pitches that bounced to the plate. You could be Ted Williams. The "how" matters less to me than the result. If someone brings up a point that the "how" on <x> player doesn't match the results then I give that it's due importance. That's when the "how" matters to me.

Good core mechanics haven't changed since the time of Babe Ruth.

 

[beckdawg]

Good core mechanics haven't changed since the time of Babe Ruth.

You literally just said many considered Prior fine until slow mo replay and whatnot came about. The obvious implication here is that applies to others as well. I'd imagine soon we'll see more stuff like they do on espn's sports science to measure all sorts of stuff from a physics perspective. Perhaps what looks good in slow mo today will be considered poor by those measures because you can generate more force some other way is what i'm getting at.

If you're trying to argue that keeping balance in your swing will always be right then fine I'd agree. That's probably a poor example a a "core" mechanic but as I've said that's not really my bag. Point I'm trying to make is that there's a lot of moving parts to throwing a pitch or taking a swing. I'll give a good example. David Ortiz is a hitter who gets put in shifts quite often because of his current swing. There's a number of players like that. Shifts are proving to be quite effective on certain power hitters and are being used more and more because of it. 5 years ago very few people used shifts and I'm sure many considered Ortiz's mechanics fine. 5 years from now that same swing may be characterized as something not to do because of the shift or any other number of things. And with regard to that, people often say just hit it away from the shift but those players have said themselves that it's not easy to do because of the way their swing works and because the way pitchers pitch.

So when I'm saying opinions on mechanics change that's what I'm getting at. There's also the consideration of what the swing is trying to accomplish. Small speedy players often swing for contact. Big bulky types will swing for power. There's no one "right" swing or everyone would just swing like Pujols.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You literally just said many considered Prior fine until slow mo replay and whatnot came about.

What does a comment about Prior have to do with hitting mechanics? Huge strawman, literally.

]If you're trying to argue that keeping balance in your swing will always be right then fine I'd agree. That's probably a poor example a a "core" mechanic but as I've said that's not really my bag.

That's good, because it is a poor example.

So when I'm saying opinions on mechanics change that's what I'm getting at.

Opinions can change within the hitting instruction community based upon over-reactions. They change very slowly at the Pro level, because most of the things players are taught is a regurgitation of cues.

There's also the consideration of what the swing is trying to accomplish. Small speedy players often swing for contact. Big bulky types will swing for power. There's no one "right" swing or everyone would just swing like Pujols.

Proper hitting position over the course of time hasn't changed, as I stated. From heel drop to contact,it doesn't matter whether it's a power hitter or a speed guy. There are core movements shared by the majority of the best. From this hitting instructor's perspective, you seem caught up in style differences and not substance.

 

[beckdawg]

From this hitting instructor's perspective, you seem caught up in style differences and not substance.

I don't think this characterization is accurate. I agree with the idea that at a core level any hitter who hits .300 will do <x>, <y>, and <z>. However, how every player gets there is different. Some have elite bat speed. Some have elite contact. Some have great pitch recognition. It's not enough to just say do <x>, <y>, and <z> to be a great hitter. If it were every swing would look the same. I don't feel comfortable going into more detail because I'd probably make myself look like a fool but sacrifice to say you can't tell a player to hit like Baez does because few can create his bat speed. You can't tell someone to hit like Joey Votto because not everyone has his eye. Look no farther than Castro in 2013 if you want to see what I'm getting at. They tried to get him to different things and to an extent it ruined him as a hitter. While I agree you can augment a player to an extent, it's almost always cleaning up things he was already doing rather than entirely changing what he did to begin with. Doing so may make that player a better version of him but that change has limits. If it didn't there'd be no point in a hit grade in scouting because any player theoretically could be an 80 grade.

As for the supposed strawman, fair enough the comment was about pitching but if slow mo changed people's opinion on what is good pitching mechanics surely the same happened with hitting no? Clearly you can see where I was going with that.

 

[Parade_Rain]

As for the supposed strawman, fair enough the comment was about pitching but if slow mo changed people's opinion on what is good pitching mechanics surely the same happened with hitting no? Clearly you can see where I was going with that.

Not with hitting, imho. I could show you video of what a certain MLB manager who was a batting title winner thinks his swing looks like and then compare it to what his game swing actually was. It would be mind-boggling. My purpose in mentioning that is swing is about individual feel. A pro player can look at video a lot, but they have to feel it. I will say one thing from a hitting community standpoint that has filtered down to the areas of youth baseball, slowmo has virtually eliminated the bug-squishing cue from all except those who wish to remain blissfully ignorant.

Pitchingwise, yes, but it is very hard to pinpoint certain things. I'm not sure what I believe there, but since I'm not a pitching coach nor plan to be one it doesn't matter. Prior had what is called an inverted W at front foot landing. The theory, as I follow it anyway, is that when the front foot lands, the ball needs to already be above the elbow or there is too much stress on the elbow. This is the same essential positioning as Strasburg. For me it's hard to make that claim as there are so many other variables involved, but I thought I would point that particular theory out.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertai...s-threatening-baseballs-young-phenoms/240351/

 

[beckdawg]

Not with hitting, imho. I could show you video of what a certain MLB manager who was a batting title winner thinks his swing looks like and then compare it to what his game swing actually was. It would be mind-boggling. My purpose in mentioning that is swing is about individual feel. A pro player can look at video a lot, but they have to feel it. I will say one thing from a hitting community standpoint that has filtered down to the areas of youth baseball, slowmo has virtually eliminated the bug-squishing cue from all except those who wish to remain blissfully ignorant.

Pitchingwise, yes, but it is very hard to pinpoint certain things. I'm not sure what I believe there, but since I'm not a pitching coach nor plan to be one it doesn't matter. Prior had what is called an inverted W at front foot landing. The theory, as I follow it anyway, is that when the front foot lands, the ball needs to already be above the elbow or there is too much stress on the elbow. This is the same essential positioning as Strasburg. For me it's hard to make that claim as there are so many other variables involved, but I thought I would point that particular theory out.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertai...s-threatening-baseballs-young-phenoms/240351/

Fair enough.

 

[SilenceS]

Baez gets funky on his front foot. He doesnt always time it consistently and thats why he will miss hittable pitches. Baez is a reactionary hitter and right now he is playing the guessing game like Rizzo did last year. Its a learning experience. There is a difference with knowing tendencies and looking for something over just flat out guessing and hoping you are right. Baez can cover every square inch of that plate and them some with power. When he is right, his timing is great and he goes right center a lot. That is what I think Baez biggest asset is he isnt a pull hitter. He will hit to all fields with insane power for his age. He has a lot to work on, but with his talent and ability to learn. He should be able to make some good adjustments. Law has always tempered expectations on Baez compared to some scouts and he believes Baez will adjust in due time and he is no Baez lover I can tell you that.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Jake Arrieta may be a badass but the fact that he has a higher BA than Baez is quite worrisome. Read today that Baez plans on losing 10 lbs this offseason. Idk what that will do, but I am confident that he will be able to make some adjustments. I don't think he will reach the ceiling some hoped for 2 years ago, but I hope he can still hit .240 with 30+ bombs over the course of a season.

I mean Rizzo improved a lot from last season over the course of an offseason by changing his approach. Why can't Baez? He has a lot more to fix that Rizzo, but he is still only 21.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I have grown tired of the comments about Baez average and atrike outs. He has a MO. Everyone knows it. Life goes on.

 

[SilenceS]

I have grown tired of the comments about Baez average and atrike outs. He has a MO. Everyone knows it. Life goes on.

Best post ever. No one will get traded and the Cubs are going to let the kids play.

 

[chibears55]

if there still complaints about Baez strikeouts and AVG in 365 days then there concern with him.. till then its a wait n see

 

[JZsportsfan]

Yeah I'm not going to panic about him unless he is still having these struggles next year. Didn't expect him to do well at all this year. Maybe not this bad, but now he knows what adjustments to make. Rizzo and Castro bounced back from awful seasons last year, I see no reason why Baez can't have a similar trend upwards

 

[SilenceS]

Yeah I'm not going to panic about him unless he is still having these struggles next year. Didn't expect him to do well at all this year. Maybe not this bad, but now he knows what adjustments to make. Rizzo and Castro bounced back from awful seasons last year, I see no reason why Baez can't have a similar trend upwards

Dude, I am so excited about Castro. Before he went down, he had full control of the strikezone. He looked like a complete different hitter. Fouling off out pitches and hitting balls that should be hit hard. He was batting over .380 for over a month. He was also hitting over .900 OPS during that span. He seemed to focus in and just control the plate. Castro has always been considered one of the best hand to eye coordination guys in the game. He is hungry. I want to see these payers eat.

 

[CSF77]

I want to see Castro hitting #2 again. They need guys like that getting on base.

Cog has shown the ability to get on base and to be honest is a perfect lead off. Alcantara IMO needs to grow into the role vs being thrust into it.

Baez needs to hit in a RBI spot lower in the order. Like 5-7. Have him be a HR threat while developing vs a table setter. He will never be that type anyways.

 

[Boobaby1]

I want to see Castro hitting #2 again. They need guys like that getting on base.

Cog has shown the ability to get on base and to be honest is a perfect lead off. Alcantara IMO needs to grow into the role vs being thrust into it.

Baez needs to hit in a RBI spot lower in the order. Like 5-7. Have him be a HR threat while developing vs a table setter. He will never be that type anyways.

Castro needs to be in the 6th hole IMO, followed by Baez.

For instance. If you have...let's say

CF Span
2B Alcantara
LF Bryant
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
SS Castro
3B Baez
C Castillo

Here you have two speedsters at the top with a true high OBP lead-off hitter, followed by the meat of the order which are big, strong, powerful hitters, Then you get to face Castro who has been proven to hit, followed by Baez batting 7th who can hit it to the moon out of that slot.

Not too many breaks in that line-up, and the addition would be a 12 million per year player, which is chump change for the Cubs.