The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[Parade_Rain]

Maybe you're perception is different than mine but what I see is 0 concern about him actually making it. It's all "wait and see." There's plenty of reason to be overly pessimistic about any prospect let alone one that has struggled.

Right here is your problem. "One that has struggled". You knew this. Even the Cubs Front Office tried to explain it to you and every Cubs fan why Baez was up now. Is there some indication Hoyerstein don't know what they are doing considering how quickly they've turned over the team into something people are interested in watching next season?

Something like 30% of top 100 players turn into average or better major league players. Even if you want to exclude that to A) hitters and B) hitters who are top 10 prospects I think it's still only a 50/50 chance.

Great. So if he fails, Russell can give it a go. If he fails, who is the next in line? It seems to me the people who are living and dying based upon every AB Baez takes are those who appear to want him to fail.

Perhaps I'm overly overly pessimistic but if anything cubs fans should take this approach after the constant flow of Corey Patterson's, Felix Pies, Josh Vitters and Brett Jacksons's of the world.

Most prospects fail. Some prospects succeed. Is this supposed to be earth shattering news?

 

[brett05]

Because that tells you how much better the pitching is at the MLB level. The home stretch was also stacked with playoff teams so he wasn't facing a bunch of late season callups to pad stats.

So in other words he might not be able to make the adjustment. I mean each level the pitching gets that much better. Not saying he won't get better but to deny it as a real possibility since that is all he is showing seems unwise.

 

[brett05]

He is at 199 at bats. The jump from AAA to majors is huge. It takes time. Its not like he is 700 at bats into his career.

If he was his trade value would be sinking faster then a rock off a cliff.

 

[CSF77]

Castro needs to be in the 6th hole IMO, followed by Baez.

For instance. If you have...let's say

CF Span
2B Alcantara
LF Bryant
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
SS Castro
3B Baez
C Castillo

Here you have two speedsters at the top with a true high OBP lead-off hitter, followed by the meat of the order which are big, strong, powerful hitters, Then you get to face Castro who has been proven to hit, followed by Baez batting 7th who can hit it to the moon out of that slot.

Not too many breaks in that line-up, and the addition would be a 12 million per year player, which is chump change for the Cubs.

U need to change your meds.

Just by June you are looking at Bryant alone. Add to it Russell should be up at latest Aug.

The best solution:
LF: Cog
SS: Castro
1B: Rizzo
RF: Soler
3B: Valbuena/Olt
2B: Baez
CF: Alcantara
C: Castillo/Lopez

This leaves the bench with Sweeney, Szczer, Watkins and Valikia.

14

Rotation:

Arrieta
Lester
Hendricks
Doubront
Turner

Pen:
Rondon
Strop
Wright
Ramirez
Vizcaino
Rosscup

Basically they add Lester and I believe it will cost the Cubs a 7th year to out bid the Sox. Add to it they have to eat 11 mil on Jackson.

But they will be able to add Bryant and Russell mid season. So that should put the O over the top. The 2 weak links which IMO are league avg not weak would be filled by 2 top 10 prospects. That is like having a young Braun and Larkin added mid season.

Tying up roster spots is dumb now. That should be saved for AFTER these kids are failures vs BLOCKING them from getting a shot.

 

[CSF77]

It is far better to see what they have early season. Add Russell and Bryant and have cash avail to add some one like """Price""" at the deadline when he is up.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That is very true that doesnt get brought up. I think it was Theo that said the same thing. Shit, the other day Bryant said Baez is a freak. He said batting behind him for however long was a lot of fun. He said he would do unbelievable things.

With everyone installed into the lineup next season I would also expect Baez to be where he belongs in the order. He isn't a 2 hitter even when he is clicking, imho.

The thing is Baez could very easily bust, but making any kind of judgement because of a 199 bat sample size of a 21 kid is ridiculous. Its always why I am not gushing over Soler. The league will adjust and they will have to adjust back. Its to small of sample to jump to any conclusions.

Yes, but regarding Soler, I'm not as concerned about adjustments. He has a powerful, yet simplified swing. I don't think his valley will be anywhere near as low as Baez' could be.

Also, I kind of want Baez to work with Castro. I think they could both learn from each other.

If I'm following you correctly, that's an interesting concept. Working with Baez, Castro can teach him how to attack, yet have better control of the zone. Baez can help Castro get a bit more pop in the bat. Is that your thinking?

 

[Parade_Rain]

So in other words he might not be able to make the adjustment. I mean each level the pitching gets that much better. Not saying he won't get better but to deny it as a real possibility since that is all he is showing seems unwise.

Yes. If he doesn't make the adjustments, he'll need to find a good tattoo removal service.

 

[beckdawg]

Right here is your problem. "One that has struggled". You knew this. Even the Cubs Front Office tried to explain it to you and every Cubs fan why Baez was up now. Is there some indication Hoyerstein don't know what they are doing considering how quickly they've turned over the team into something people are interested in watching next season?

Great. So if he fails, Russell can give it a go. If he fails, who is the next in line? It seems to me the people who are living and dying based upon every AB Baez takes are those who appear to want him to fail.

Most prospects fail. Some prospects succeed. Is this supposed to be earth shattering news?

Living and dying by each AB? That's a bit melodramatic don't you think? We're on a message board talking baseball. Can we no longer talk about a FA who gets off to a 2 month hot start? Was it too early to say Veras sucked? I mean I get where you're trying to go and suggesting that small playing time doesn't ultimately mean a great deal. But if we're going to sit here and reserve judgment until 1000 PAs or 500 IP or whatever arbitrary number you throw down then you're not going to have anything to discuss. As I have pointed out multiple times, even teams don't do that. You're talking about people and ultimately people trying to keep their jobs in a market with a ridiculous attrition rate.

If you differ on how much patience to have well then I'm sorry. However, even if Baez were playing some what decent but no where near his potential does it make my suggestion of trading him any less viable? I mean every top 10 prospect ever was thought to be a franchise player by someone and any number of them have been traded by teams to get parts they thought made them better. To get back to the point that most prospects fail, if that's indeed the case and as some have suggested which I agree with, teams hold top prospects in high regard, you can make a compelling argument that good MLB players are underrated in comparison. Obviously, you're unlikely to get a team to trade a Mike Trout but would anyone seriously take a unproven top 10 prospect over say Rizzo? Ignore for a minute that it's Baez. I think Bryant can be a very good player but I'd consider trading him for Yasiel Puig who's the same 4.9 fWAR as Rizzo.

 

[brett05]

Yes. If he doesn't make the adjustments, he'll need to find a good tattoo removal service.

I'm anti tattoo. That said, If I made a MLB roster I'd never , ever remove it. He can say something a ton of hot prospects will never be able to say. He made it to the show.

 

[SilenceS]

And you seem to have a problem separating what's happened and projecting that to what's going to happen going forward. In those 200 PAs Baez has not made good contact. Are you honestly going to sit here and try to argue other wise? I never suggested that this sample size will ultimately be where he stabilizes to just like I never said he'd be a 2% or whatever it was walk rate guy. This data shows it takes around 800 PAs for LD% and 200 for IFFB to stabilize. I knew that well before making these comments. 25% isn't the full picture and I never said it was. My point was it isn't a positive indication going forward. Incidentally, his infield fly balls would have stabilized according to that data. The entire point of that comparison was Trout hit poorly despite average or better contact rates which people should have viewed as a positive for him the following season. Baez on the other hand has hit this poorly because he has made poor contact. I have never suggested he can't improve, not once.

Also please spare me the "you don't like him" talk. I don't like him because he's played poorly not because I hold some personal grudge toward him. If and when he turns thing around my opinion will turnaround on him and any other player. Frankly, I think I'm done responding to you on matters involving him because it seems pretty clear to me that you have an emotional attachment to him and can't separate that from talk on data. I've seen you make comments about Olt basically being done as a cub(rightly so) after 200ish PAs in the majors with roughly equivalent numbers to what Baez has put up. I'm not even suggesting they are identical situations but if you can't see the inherent bias between the two stances here then what's the point of even continuing further?

Lol, Olt is 26 years old that had bad vision. I didnt want to trade for him. See, the funny thing is you take sample sizes wrong and get mad when I say something. I have no bias or "emotional" connection. I just dont fly by the seat of my pants on players which you seem to do. You have tried to push 50 bat sample sizes before. I am not the only poster who has told you this. So, dont take things so personal and if you dont want to respond to me thats fine. But, Im not going to sit here and judge a 21 year old kid. Oh and I talk data a ton on another site. I dont talk it with you because you make judgements on data before they ever have a chance to stabalize. Also, you suggested he get traded two weeks into being called up. You never did like him. Its cool. I dont like Almora. We all have our favorites, so go with how you feel. No problem, but I am going to state my end as well. Its called a discussion board.

 

[brett05]

Wait..there's another good site out there besides CCS?

 

[SilenceS]

With everyone installed into the lineup next season I would also expect Baez to be where he belongs in the order. He isn't a 2 hitter even when he is clicking, imho.

Yes, but regarding Soler, I'm not as concerned about adjustments. He has a powerful, yet simplified swing. I don't think his valley will be anywhere near as low as Baez' could be.

If I'm following you correctly, that's an interesting concept. Working with Baez, Castro can teach him how to attack, yet have better control of the zone. Baez can help Castro get a bit more pop in the bat. Is that your thinking?

Soler was the safest prospect we had. His valley is nowhere near Baez like you said. Im still of the belief that Rizzo should bat 2nd, but I am the only one backing that horse. lol Yes, you are correct on Baez/Castro. They are both free swingers. Castro still needs to learn when to drive the ball and Baez needs to continue to attack but learn a better zone. The worst thing the Cubs could do to Baez is to take away his aggressiveness. He needs to harness it not remove it.

 

[SilenceS]

Also, Castro knows what its like to struggle from last season. The Cubs almost ruined him. He could teach Baez a lot.

 

[SilenceS]

Wait..there's another good site out there besides CCS?

Its a small site. Almost everyone of them on the site is about the numbers. They got some smart dudes on it. CCS will always be my number 1 though. Much more fun.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Living and dying by each AB? That's a bit melodramatic don't you think? We're on a message board talking baseball.

Baez struck out. Great conversation. I haven't participated in that one before.

Can we no longer talk about a FA who gets off to a 2 month hot start? Was it too early to say Veras sucked?

Veras had a previous MLB track record. Apples, oranges, strawmen, pitchforks.

I mean I get where you're trying to go and suggesting that small playing time doesn't ultimately mean a great deal. But if we're going to sit here and reserve judgment until 1000 PAs or 500 IP or whatever arbitrary number you throw down then you're not going to have anything to discuss. As I have pointed out multiple times, even teams don't do that. You're talking about people and ultimately people trying to keep their jobs in a market with a ridiculous attrition rate.

This is a conversation you need to have with SilenceS. I haven't told you to wait for 1000 PAs or specific number of PAs. I did state when I would send him down next season, if adjustments weren't being made.

If you differ on how much patience to have well then I'm sorry.

It doesn't matter how much or how little patience I have. What matters is how much patience the Club says they will have, and as usual they have been honest and up front about Baez.

However, even if Baez were playing some what decent but no where near his potential does it make my suggestion of trading him any less viable?

The Club has provided indications that there won't be any trades of prospects this off-season. Since that's who actually controls whether he gets traded or not, I'd say your suggestion of trading him simply isn't very viable.

I mean every top 10 prospect ever was thought to be a franchise player by someone and any number of them have been traded by teams to get parts they thought made them better.

What do the cubs need to get better? TOR. Who is available via FA and who is available via trade? which one costs less?

To get back to the point that most prospects fail, if that's indeed the case and as some have suggested which I agree with, teams hold top prospects in high regard, you can make a compelling argument that good MLB players are underrated in comparison. Obviously, you're unlikely to get a team to trade a Mike Trout but would anyone seriously take a unproven top 10 prospect over say Rizzo? Ignore for a minute that it's Baez. I think Bryant can be a very good player but I'd consider trading him for Yasiel Puig who's the same 4.9 fWAR as Rizzo.

Puig does not belong on a team that does not have a decent presence of veterans.

 

[SilenceS]

Who is more untradeable? Trout or Kershaw? You know what nevermind. Im gonna start my first poll ever.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Lol, Olt is 26 years old that had bad vision. I didnt want to trade for him. See, the funny thing is you take sample sizes wrong and get mad when I say something. I have no bias or "emotional" connection. I just dont fly by the seat of my pants on players which you seem to do. You have tried to push 50 bat sample sizes before. I am not the only poster who has told you this. So, dont take things so personal and if you dont want to respond to me thats fine. But, Im not going to sit here and judge a 21 year old kid. Oh and I talk data a ton on another site. I dont talk it with you because you make judgements on data before they ever have a chance to stabalize. Also, you suggested he get traded two weeks into being called up. You never did like him. Its cool. I dont like Almora. We all have our favorites, so go with how you feel. No problem, but I am going to state my end as well. Its called a discussion board.

Olt was a buy low candidate. He wasn't the best prospect the Cubs got from that trade. They took a flyer on his, and so far it hasn't panned out. But he has been better since coming back and he will have a shot to win the job again in ST until some prospect takes it from him

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Javier Baez is the worst player in the history of Major League Baseball. I expect him to be completely out of the league and serving oreo shakes at Culver's by October 2015. Never in my life have I seen a player worse at the game of baseball. We have Jim Hendry to thank for such an atrocious, franchise-crippling draft pick. He makes Brett Jackson look like a .400 OBP guy.

The day Jim Hendry selected Javier Baez, a dark cloud developed over Wrigley Field. The cloud has since thickened and condensed, solidifying it's mass and casting shadows all throughout Wrigleyville.

Cut Javy!

 

[brett05]

Javier Baez is the worst player in the history of Major League Baseball. I expect him to be completely out of the league and serving oreo shakes at Culver's by October 2015. Never in my life have I seen a player worse at the game of baseball. We have Jim Hendry to thank for such an atrocious, franchise-crippling draft pick. He makes Brett Jackson look like a .400 OBP guy.

The day Jim Hendry selected Javier Baez, a dark cloud developed over Wrigley Field. The cloud has since thickened and condensed, solidifying it's mass and casting shadows all throughout Wrigleyville.

Cut Javy!

All I got from this is that Culver's has oreo shakes. Yum!!!

 

[SilenceS]

Javier Baez is the worst player in the history of Major League Baseball. I expect him to be completely out of the league and serving oreo shakes at Culver's by October 2015. Never in my life have I seen a player worse at the game of baseball. We have Jim Hendry to thank for such an atrocious, franchise-crippling draft pick. He makes Brett Jackson look like a .400 OBP guy.

The day Jim Hendry selected Javier Baez, a dark cloud developed over Wrigley Field. The cloud has since thickened and condensed, solidifying it's mass and casting shadows all throughout Wrigleyville.

Cut Javy!

Ive seen worst post. Carry on!