The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Oliver isn't fangraph's exactly. It's just one of many projections they host. Zips and Streamer are others.

As for this being an attendance move, that's pretty naive IMO. For one, there's not that much season left. They waited this long for a reason. Baez recently changed agents so my guess is they likely have the workings for an extension in mind. Also, he's crushed the ball lately in Iowa. I believe his numbers peaked around the time Bryant was called up. The last 28 days he's hitting .319/.365/.681 with a 6% walk rate and a 24% k rate. Last 90 days he's hitting .290/.346/.565 with a 8% walk rate and a 28% k rate.

As for where you bat him, I would guess 3rd if you want to be a bit aggressive or 6th/7th if you want to just take the pressure off him. If you bat him 3rd you would have Baez, Rizzo, Castro as a night power hitting core with a R/L/R split plus Rizzo would be protection for him. If you go later, you'd basically just be replacing probably schierholtz positionally.

To be honest though I think he's going to be kind of meh this year. I'd love to be wrong about this but look at the adjustment he had to A+ and AAA. Daytona is more of a pitching league so I think when he finally caught up there he was obviously ready for AA hence what we saw last year. However, in both of his first stints in those two leagues he struggled. Additionally, if you take his last 90 days at roughly 28% k rate and compare that to the MLB for the past 3.5 years there's not a ton of guys who are super stars at that level of K's. You're basically hoping he's Giancarlo Stanton at 27.6%. Staton walks more at 12%. Jay Bruce at 9.9%/25.3% is another guy in that range that's likely a star in most people's minds. Additionally, if he's a .270 hitter in A+ and a .260 hitter in AAA what's that make him in the majors? .250 tops? Even if you take his later splits where he's hitting around .300 in AAA, that's still PCL numbers. So maybe .270 tops?

I get why people are excited. And I get why scouts like his tools. However, me being more a numbers guy its hard for me to see this current iteration of him succeeding massively. He's only 21 so clearly stuff can change. We'll see I suppose.

They are avg right now 32k per. Say with Baez it umps up to 35k per. That is not really a reach here. 3 k more to see Baez play. 29 more games. 87,000 more ticket sales. Say each person costs $60 Cheapest tickets are $35 than beer/snacks and food. $60 is low end. $5,220,000 just from a 3k sales increase. And that is honestly a low end projection. 5 beers with food and some snacks with better seating is going to push it up.

 

[Bear Pride]

It was alittle over the top. 40 HR's in his first full season. Talk about a Kool-aid site.

He's hitting one every 4 games since he's been in the minors. That equals 40 HR's. :dunno:

 

[Bear Pride]

He could hit anywhere from .220 to .300. His hit tool allows for that big of range. Its all about pitch recognition with him. He has batted over .300 and had over a .900 OPS since mid MAY. So, he has hit well over .260 for awhile. His start was so bad. He could hit for the highest AVG out of our big 4 because he hits the ball so hard he should always carry a better BABIP then most. Baez will struggle, but his ceiling can not be matched by anyone in our ORG, even Bryant.

Also, I read his coach said wait until you see his range at second. He said it is unbelievable. This is why Alcantara was moved to CF.

I was surprised, myself, at Mendy. I thought Mendy looked better than I thought he would at 2nd. Hearing what his coach said about his range is nice to hear!

 

[Parade_Rain]

Nah, Fishy's a thankbanger.

For those of us who don't routinely post on the Bears forum, would you mind provide an explanation of what a "thankbanger" is?

 

[SilenceS]

For those of us who don't routinely post on the Bears forum, would you mind provide an explanation of what a "thankbanger" is?

He thanks people post a lot.

 

[SilenceS]

Here is a write up on Baez. Pretty good. Has his spray chart and heat map and other things.

http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=595879&position=SS

 

[Parade_Rain]

He thanks people post a lot.

Ah. So it's a good thing.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm also going to say he hits between .245-.260 the rest of this season at MLB level. Should we have a poll on this? who else wants to make predictions here?

 

[brett05]

Ah. So it's a good thing.

Context counts

 

[brett05]

5 hrs 233

 

[Parade_Rain]

Context counts

So when he thanks your posts in the Cubs forum, he's just adding to the trolling?

 

[Bear Pride]

For those of us who don't routinely post on the Bears forum, would you mind provide an explanation of what a "thankbanger" is?

It would be a poster that follows a certain group of other posters around and thanks them all the time. For instance, when he thinks someone gives me shit good, he will thank them. I t works in reverse as well.

 

[brett05]

So when he thanks your posts in the Cubs forum, he's just adding to the trolling?

Misspelled genius but yes

 

[Bear Pride]

[video=youtube;IYaTURv3kLA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYaTURv3kLA[/video]

 

[Parade_Rain]

It would be a poster that follows a certain group of other posters around and thanks them all the time. For instance, when he thinks someone gives me shit good, he will thank them. I t works in reverse as well.

I don't follow you around and I can tell you that based upon most of your postings in the Cubs forum, I will strongly consider thankbanging anyone who argues with you.

 

[beckdawg]

They are avg right now 32k per. Say with Baez it umps up to 35k per. That is not really a reach here. 3 k more to see Baez play. 29 more games. 87,000 more ticket sales. Say each person costs $60 Cheapest tickets are $35 than beer/snacks and food. $60 is low end. $5,220,000 just from a 3k sales increase. And that is honestly a low end projection. 5 beers with food and some snacks with better seating is going to push it up.

And you're talking about $5 mil to a team that supposedly makes around $300 mil a year. Even if you say it's $10 mil it would be incredibly stupid from a developmental standpoint. If Baez is ready according to the front office, I have no problem with him being called up. But to do it to boost attendance is stupid. Additionally, it's not Theo's job to worry about attendance at least not directly.His job is wins. So, if ownership is sweating him over potentially $5-10 mil in a lost season it says some troubling things over ownership.

 

[CSF77]

He's hitting one every 4 games since he's been in the minors. That equals 40 HR's. :dunno:

In the minors is the key phrase

 

[beckdawg]

He could hit anywhere from .220 to .300. His hit tool allows for that big of range. Its all about pitch recognition with him. He has batted over .300 and had over a .900 OPS since mid MAY. So, he has hit well over .260 for awhile. His start was so bad. He could hit for the highest AVG out of our big 4 because he hits the ball so hard he should always carry a better BABIP then most. Baez will struggle, but his ceiling can not be matched by anyone in our ORG, even Bryant.

Also, I read his coach said wait until you see his range at second. He said it is unbelievable. This is why Alcantara was moved to CF.

It's kind of amusing to hear that about 2B considering the consternation some had for him at SS which is essentially the reverse of SS. As for his average, I see what you're saying but it's basically never that a player reaches their top end on everything. I can buy the idea of him pounding pitches and thus getting more line drives for higher BABIP. He's also got underrated speed. He's probably a 20-25 SB guy if he plays a full MLB season. That should also help his BABIP.

The worry is more about contact. I can buy his increased walked rate but I have a very tough time buying him as a sub 25% K guy until we see it long term. Not saying it can't happen because obviously at 21 he's still quite raw but that's my worry. If he's a .250 hitter with that sort of K rate we're talking about world's in difference in long term value.

 

[CSF77]

And you're talking about $5 mil to a team that supposedly makes around $300 mil a year. Even if you say it's $10 mil it would be incredibly stupid from a developmental standpoint. If Baez is ready according to the front office, I have no problem with him being called up. But to do it to boost attendance is stupid. Additionally, it's not Theo's job to worry about attendance at least not directly.His job is wins. So, if ownership is sweating him over potentially $5-10 mil in a lost season it says some troubling things over ownership.

That doesn't even get into viewer ratings and contract negotiations with the new deal with Fox. Money/profit is always a factor in business. To think other wise is just foolish.
.
Starting his timer early means they will have to pay up earlier. But, if it causes a boost in profit now in a slumping sales year with a new TV contract upcoming it is always makes sense to boost ratings.

The fact is the Cubs have been unwatchable now for 4 years while this overhaul has been happening. Moves like this gain attention and it is corresponding with a new fox deal.....ya if you don't think the business side of the house did not motivate this deal you are naive.

 

[Bear Pride]

I don't follow you around and I can tell you that based upon most of your postings in the Cubs forum, I will strongly consider thankbanging anyone who argues with you.

You guys, wtf is with your comprehension? I never suggested that you follow me around. WTF? :dunno: You asked what a thankbanger was, after the term was used in reference to a post about fish, and I answered it for you. Now you're putting words in my mouth and threatening me with thankbangery. No wonder I get frustrated with some of you fuckin people!

I swear, the collective IQ around here will be less than Baez's batting average! As far as I'm concerned, you're fuckin lucky I'm here to bring up the average!

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