The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

[TL1961]

That is straight fucking lunacy. In no way would it take that package to get him.

It wouldn't take that package even if it came with a guarantee he'd win the Cy Young award.

 

[TL1961]

Philly is asking for quite a bit more more than that for Hamels. In Cubs terms they would want something like Bryant, Soler and Edwards or Almora. Zimmerman is younger and most teams would insist on signing him to an extension before making the deal. Now, without an extension maybe something like Edwards, McKinney and Olt might get it done but the price on these guys is high. Think about what Oakland paid the Cubs for Samardzija and both Zimmermann and Hamels are true number ones where Samardzija is probably a #2. Pretty much why the Cubs won't make a trade and would prefer to buy their pitchers.

And every analyst that talks about Philly says all other teams say they are asking way too much. Which may explain why they did nothing last July with a terrible team No selling, no picking up prospects.

 

[chibears55]

Love this. .. like or dislike KAP, he usually accurate with his sources...

@thekapman: Latest on Lester: Solid east coast non-team source told me Cubs being very aggressive (135+). Team has been in radio silence... Won't talk.

@GDubCub: Source: Report that Cubs offered Lester a six-year deal of more than $135m is "not accurate."

@thekapman: I stand 100% by my source @GDubCub you're wrong on this one buddy.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Good.

Be prepared to go up if he wants. Do whatever you gotta do to sign the guy.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Good.

Be prepared to go up if he wants. Do whatever you gotta do to sign the guy.

While I agree signing Lester would be an important piece - I'm not willing to do whatever it takes to sign him. Lester is not worth $185M over 7 years. I don't see Lester being in the fold next season as the difference between a World Series winner or not. It's going to take 2-3 years for guys like Soler, Baez, and Bryant to peak.

As painful as it is to say it, if the money for Lester gets too high -- it might be in our best interest to save our money for one more season. I don't see us competing for a WS just quite yet. At 6-years/$140M he makes sense to me -- but 7-years/$185M seems to be too much.

 

[CSF77]

While I agree signing Lester would be an important piece - I'm not willing to do whatever it takes to sign him. Lester is not worth $185M over 7 years. I don't see Lester being in the fold next season as the difference between a World Series winner or not. It's going to take 2-3 years for guys like Soler, Baez, and Bryant to peak.

As painful as it is to say it, if the money for Lester gets too high -- it might be in our best interest to save our money for one more season. I don't see us competing for a WS just quite yet. At 6-years/$140M he makes sense to me -- but 7-years/$185M seems to be too much.

Rather have them trade for Hamel if it got into the 200 mil area. Hamel costs 110 mil and leaves open future payroll for more addition. His avg is 22.5 mil per. 26+ mil is a bit much for a guy that has pitched at ace levels only for 1 year of his career.

 

[czman]

I don't think the Cubs should be pushing for Lester this hard. I still think they are at least 1 more year from the playoffs. Either go younger or wait. 6 years for Lester is a bad idea. 7 is down right stupid. Scherzer makes more sense at 6 years because he is younger and thrown fewer innings.

 

[brett05]

Eventually the Cubs have to sign guys if they want to attract others

 

[Boobaby1]

Eventually the Cubs have to sign guys if they want to attract others

Exactly. What kind of statement did Boston just make? Regardless if they are worth the money in the long run, people act sometimes as if these teams are losing money.

Nail down who you want when you have the money, and let the other teams then scurry and overpay for the remaining fish in the sea.

 

[czman]

Eventually the Cubs have to sign guys if they want to attract others

Money attracts people. They need to sign players when it makes sense to sign them. Yes, age is included in that.

 

[JZsportsfan]

If the Cubs don't start doing moves like this, they will continue to be "one year away". Lester is needed for his experience in big games as much as his arm. The first few signings are going to be overpays. Look what the Nationals did for Werth. That contract was absurd but it sort of helped set the stage for their revival. I'd go even higher than $135 M for Lester

 

[SilenceS]

Exactly. What kind of statement did Boston just make? Regardless if they are worth the money in the long run, people act sometimes as if these teams are losing money.

Nail down who you want when you have the money, and let the other teams then scurry and overpay for the remaining fish in the sea.

Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandavol will be horrible contracts before its done. People ***** about Casto. Ramirez really gives zero fucks about playing this game.

 

[DewsSox79]

Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandavol will be horrible contracts before its done. People ***** about Casto. Ramirez really gives zero fucks about playing this game.

well if he doesnt care so what when he puts up a .283/.369/132 ops+ being a 3.5 win player. Do you know him personally? cant his past be his past? I bet if the cubs signed him you would be fapping. Give me that slash line from any player that doesnt care and I will take it all day.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[DewsSox79]

I don't think the Cubs should be pushing for Lester this hard. I still think they are at least 1 more year from the playoffs. Either go younger or wait. 6 years for Lester is a bad idea. 7 is down right stupid. Scherzer makes more sense at 6 years because he is younger and thrown fewer innings.

how are they a year away when you have no clue how your 3bmn will be,2b, all 3 outfield positions, and needing an ace with only a high 2 or low 3 starter in that rotation. posts like this boggle my mind.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[SilenceS]

well if he doesnt care so what when he puts up a .283/.369/132 ops+ being a 3.5 win player. Do you know him personally? cant his past be his past? I bet if the cubs signed him you would be fapping. Give me that slash line from any player that doesnt care and I will take it all day.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

Has played 128 games or less in 3 of the last 4 years. He will be 31 in December and has numerous stories of not giving a ****.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

how are they a year away when you have no clue how your 3bmn will be,2b, all 3 outfield positions, and needing an ace with only a high 2 or low 3 starter in that rotation. posts like this boggle my mind. Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

Because you have to look at where they are and what they have. They have two stars in Rizzo and Castro and you have to believe Soler is the real deal. They have a solid bullpen with a ton of arms behind that and they've indicated a commitment to buy pitching. 2015 should answer a lot of questions and they have the money and prospects to fill in holes. Also with 4 top 10 prospects and using the 70% success rate of similarly ranked prospects the odds say that there should be only one bust out of Soler , Bryant, Russell and Baez. There are zero guarantees but if you look at other rebuilds, Washington is a close enough analogy, they should contend in 2016 and the FO is even saying that publicly. To say that stating so out loud is somehow crazy ignores the facts and instead just says that you don't like predictions.

 

[chibears55]

Because you have to look at where they are and what they have. They have two stars in Rizzo and Castro and you have to believe Soler is the real deal. They have a solid bullpen with a ton of arms behind that and they've indicated a commitment to buy pitching. 2015 should answer a lot of questions and they have the money and prospects to fill in holes. Also with 4 top 10 prospects and using the 70% success rate of similarly ranked prospects the odds say that there should be only one bust out of Soler , Bryant, Russell and Baez. There are zero guarantees but if you look at other rebuilds, Washington is a close enough analogy, they should contend in 2016 and the FO is even saying that publicly. To say that stating so out loud is somehow crazy ignores the facts and instead just says that you don't like predictions.

Im not gonna argue you statistics but I have to disagree with that statement of them being a year away right now. .

As of today looking at the roster there no way their a year away.. yes they have money to spend but to this point they haven't spent it, yes they have prospects but as of today we have no idea how they will fair for a full season...

Until they actually add players to strengthen the rotation and the lineup, and we see the kids perform on the field . we cant predict or assume their going to be contenders by 2016 with what they actually have on their roster. .


I thought they were going to be aggressive and attack their needs, especially after Maddon fell into their laps..

Ill wait til the meetings in 2 weeks and see what they come out with before I determine where their at..

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Because you have to look at where they are and what they have. They have two stars in Rizzo and Castro and you have to believe Soler is the real deal. They have a solid bullpen with a ton of arms behind that and they've indicated a commitment to buy pitching. 2015 should answer a lot of questions and they have the money and prospects to fill in holes. Also with 4 top 10 prospects and using the 70% success rate of similarly ranked prospects the odds say that there should be only one bust out of Soler , Bryant, Russell and Baez. There are zero guarantees but if you look at other rebuilds, Washington is a close enough analogy, they should contend in 2016 and the FO is even saying that publicly. To say that stating so out loud is somehow crazy ignores the facts and instead just says that you don't like predictions.

I disagree with a lot of what's said here, though you hvae some good points.

First, no guarantees with Soler. In fact, I think he will regress, not like what Rizzo did in 2013, but in growing pains fashion. Success in this league is about adjustment and readjustment. Soler is an aggressive hitter, so expect a lot of good change up pitchers to take notice.

Plus, one half a year isn't enough for me to 'believe he's the real deal.' Sorry. Meatball statement there.

I agree one of the 4 will bust, but that doesn't mean the other 3 are 'successful.' What are we defining as successful? Average players? Situational hitters? All stars?

Washington is not a close enough analogy. The cubs have blatantly ignored TOR pitching in the draft and trade (to be seen at this point) for the sake of stockpiling bats. They had a shot at Appel in 2012 and Grey in 2013, and Nola/Freeland in 14.

Where's the Cubs' Stratsburg? They can acquire their Gio, but no Stratsburg developed.

Where's the Jayson Werth like signing?

Washington will contend in 2015, you're correct. The cubs, as of right now don't plan to unless they strike gold at the right time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I disagree with a lot of what's said here, though you hvae some good points.

First, no guarantees with Soler. In fact, I think he will regress, not like what Rizzo did in 2013, but in growing pains fashion. Success in this league is about adjustment and readjustment. Soler is an aggressive hitter, so expect a lot of good change up pitchers to take notice.

Plus, one half a year isn't enough for me to 'believe he's the real deal.' Sorry. Meatball statement there.

I agree one of the 4 will bust, but that doesn't mean the other 3 are 'successful.' What are we defining as successful? Average players? Situational hitters? All stars?

Washington is not a close enough analogy. The cubs have blatantly ignored TOR pitching in the draft and trade (to be seen at this point) for the sake of stockpiling bats. They had a shot at Appel in 2012 and Grey in 2013, and Nola/Freeland in 14.

Where's the Cubs' Stratsburg? They can acquire their Gio, but no Stratsburg developed.

Where's the Jayson Werth like signing?

Washington will contend in 2015, you're correct. The cubs, as of right now don't plan to unless they strike gold at the right time.

They ignored TOR pitching by design instead exploiting the market inequity if right handed power which they are now poised to start seeing results from. From the minute they drafted Kris Bryant they made the decision to pay for pitching and I firmly believe they'll do that. There's nothing they said they were going to do that they haven't done so I'm inclined to believe them. As far a prospects nobody knows for sure but most best guesses have Soler as a legitimate major league hitter. No guarantees, as you say, is s given but who expects those? I like what I see. Kris Bryant is probably the most elite prospect to come up since Mike Trout who was the best player in baseball within three months of his major league debut. Now I don't have those kind of expectations for Bryant but I do expect him to be a good major league hitter by the end of 2015. Again am I betting on the team to be a WS contender in 2016? No, baseball is too unpredictable, but it is the stated goal of this organization and again I'm inclined to believe they can make it happen.

These guys showed a lot of guts to lose for three years on purpose in a major market and I respect that because it needed to be done. They've also followed a rebuilding path never tried before and it's been fascinating to watch. I'm predicting nothing but I think they can do say they will and that's contend in 2016. I hope they add Lester and it looks to me like they will. That's a hell of a start.

 

[jooo83]

I don't think the Cubs should be pushing for Lester this hard. I still think they are at least 1 more year from the playoffs. Either go younger or wait. 6 years for Lester is a bad idea. 7 is down right stupid. Scherzer makes more sense at 6 years because he is younger and thrown fewer innings.

So they should only sign impact players the year they believe they are going to compete? All due respect, I don't follow that logic.