The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

[SilenceS]

Cease hasn't thrown a pitch.

Edwards throws 60 pitches then his shoulder gives out.

So doing well in Kane County makes you TOR material? Shit. Why isn't Randy Wells the ace of the staff then?

You contradict yourself when you say they don't have a wealth of strong pitching, yet go on to say they have not ignored pitching in any way.

I didn't say they ignored pitching. I said they ignored top potential pitching. And signing a high schooler who would have been a top pick but we wont know for at least another year what he is doesn't count. He is 3-4 years away unless he has a tour de force return with no hitches......a bet I'm pretty safe making.

You need pitching and hitting, and right now I'm not worried about the hitting in the pipeline, I'm worried about how they're going to have to score 6 runs a game to beat teams because their starting rotation is average at best.

I look to the present because that's where we are. We aren't living in lala land where everything works out A-Okay and hand picked Theo prospects succeed while everybody else living in reality gets maybe 1 or 2 guys to do it.

Or should I not be so jaded because we have a 21 year old who had a great year at Kane County?

Have a little dignity. Wipe off your chin, man......

So, who should they have drafted for top pitching? Yet again, the only pitching they passed up on was Jon Gray for Kris Bryant which at the present time seems like the right call and they passed up Mark Appel for Almora which seems to be the right call so far. They targeted a top pitch in last years draft, but they were all drafted and Hoffman got hurt. So, they went with Schwarber and got two first round pitching talents later in the draft. This isnt some magic show where you can snap your fingers and acquire everything. They have traded for pitching as well. Another thing, CJ Edwards had one stint on the DL in his career and it wasnt from a pitch count. So, back to your original statement. They are acquiring as many top assets that they can to trade for pitching. Yes, a big time pitcher comes on the block almost every year and there are several whose contract are coming up. So, have a little dignity and understand the scenario.

 

[Boobaby1]

So, who should they have drafted for top pitching? Yet again, the only pitching they passed up on was Jon Gray for Kris Bryant which at the present time seems like the right call and they passed up Mark Appel for Almora which seems to be the right call so far. They targeted a top pitch in last years draft, but they were all drafted and Hoffman got hurt. So, they went with Schwarber and got two first round pitching talents later in the draft. This isnt some magic show where you can snap your fingers and acquire everything. They have traded for pitching as well. Another thing, CJ Edwards had one stint on the DL in his career and it wasnt from a pitch count. So, back to your original statement. They are acquiring as many top assets that they can to trade for pitching. Yes, a big time pitcher comes on the block almost every year and there are several whose contract are coming up. So, have a little dignity and understand the scenario.

Always keep in mind too that prospects are really attractive, especially to low-market teams that have to function a certain way. There are as you said, always good pitchers available for the right price, and that price comes in the form of prospect currency.

 

[SilenceS]

Always keep in mind too that prospects are really attractive, especially to low-market teams that have to function a certain way. There are as you said, always good pitchers available for the right price, and that price comes in the form of prospect currency.

I mentioned it in a previous post.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

So, who should they have drafted for top pitching? Yet again, the only pitching they passed up on was Jon Gray for Kris Bryant which at the present time seems like the right call and they passed up Mark Appel for Almora which seems to be the right call so far. They targeted a top pitch in last years draft, but they were all drafted and Hoffman got hurt. So, they went with Schwarber and got two first round pitching talents later in the draft. This isnt some magic show where you can snap your fingers and acquire everything. They have traded for pitching as well. Another thing, CJ Edwards had one stint on the DL in his career and it wasnt from a pitch count. So, back to your original statement. They are acquiring as many top assets that they can to trade for pitching. Yes, a big time pitcher comes on the block almost every year and there are several whose contract are coming up. So, have a little dignity and understand the scenario.

I would have done Appel. He would have costed more, but if I recall would have went #1 in 2012 and 13 but his salary demands were too high. Which is why Pittsburgh I want to say didn't sign him after taking him 8th.

We have no idea what he would have or could be doing had he have come here in 2012. But his stuff at Stanford was top of the line and he drew comparisons to Mark Pryor. If by 'right call' you mean his struggles at A+ before turning the ship around at AA, i"m quite okay with a prospect struggling then finding his way.

Because it makes more sense than anointing a Kane County player TOR material based on one year.

I really wanted Jeff Hoffman, who likely would have been #1 this past year except he had TJ surgery.

I do understand the scenario. The Phillies want the top 2-3 prospects of the trading team and for them to eat all of Cole Hamels' money.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cole-hamels

Explain how that's productive. Ship off Bryant, Soler, and Russell and eat this dude's 20 mil? Its not. Philly doesn't have to trade him. They should.

And CJ Edwards coming out of nowhere in South Carolina or NC had issues of durability to begin win. Everybody loves his stuff, but doesn't realistically see him becoming a starter. As a bullpen guy or closer yikes he'll be good.

So what ace will be on trade market this year?

So the scenario is this: Jon Lester comes for no strings attached and will cost money. Do whatever you gotta do to sign the guy. Then draft the best quality pitching next June and the June after. Stop bulk drafting lesser talent, throwing it against the wall and hoping it works, because till this point, it hasn't.

 

[SilenceS]

I would have done Appel. He would have costed more, but if I recall would have went #1 in 2012 and 13 but his salary demands were too high. Which is why Pittsburgh I want to say didn't sign him after taking him 8th.

We have no idea what he would have or could be doing had he have come here in 2012. But his stuff at Stanford was top of the line and he drew comparisons to Mark Pryor. If by 'right call' you mean his struggles at A+ before turning the ship around at AA, i"m quite okay with a prospect struggling then finding his way.

Because it makes more sense than anointing a Kane County player TOR material based on one year.

I really wanted Jeff Hoffman, who likely would have been #1 this past year except he had TJ surgery.

I do understand the scenario. The Phillies want the top 2-3 prospects of the trading team and for them to eat all of Cole Hamels' money.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cole-hamels

Explain how that's productive. Ship off Bryant, Soler, and Russell and eat this dude's 20 mil? Its not. Philly doesn't have to trade him. They should.

And CJ Edwards coming out of nowhere in South Carolina or NC had issues of durability to begin win. Everybody loves his stuff, but doesn't realistically see him becoming a starter. As a bullpen guy or closer yikes he'll be good.

So what ace will be on trade market this year?

So the scenario is this: Jon Lester comes for no strings attached and will cost money. Do whatever you gotta do to sign the guy. Then draft the best quality pitching next June and the June after. Stop bulk drafting lesser talent, throwing it against the wall and hoping it works, because till this point, it hasn't.

Never disagreed with signing Lester. The Cubs will never draft need over best player available. Its not what McLeod does and his track record speaks for itself. The Phillies will never get that kind of package from anyone. Pitchers come on the market all the time. Like we have talked in other threads, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zimmerman, Hamels and others are likely to hit FA or trade block. You are enamored with pitching even though the Cubs have been respectable with Edwin Jackson being God awful. Throwing shit at a wall allowed them to net Arrieta who could be a Chris Carpenter like steal.

Also, scouts are mixed on Edwards and have no idea if his body will hold up. He will be a starter on the Cubs not in the bullpen. His body would have to break down for them to even consider the switch and that hasnt happened. Also, you keep saying TOR because of Kane County. No, its TOR because of the pitch set. Im guessing you dont follow the minors that closely and just read box scores. The guys I named are based on future ability not present time. You know, that is what scouts do for a living.

So, in conclusion, yes I would like the Cubs to sign a top FA pitcher. But, I am not going t agree with drafting a pitcher just to draft a pitcher. The Cubs decided to draft a plethora of power bat that the league is certainly going to want. Its about assets and the Cubs are deep in them.

 

[CSF77]

This year bats are less abundant than pitching. There are 3 ace quality. Hamels and Shark on the trade blocks. McCarthy as a #3 type or better. Bats 1 team got the top 2. Cabrera it the other major name and that is it. This is a good time to be deep in position players.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I would have done Appel. He would have costed more, but if I recall would have went #1 in 2012 and 13 but his salary demands were too high. Which is why Pittsburgh I want to say didn't sign him after taking him 8th.

We have no idea what he would have or could be doing had he have come here in 2012. But his stuff at Stanford was top of the line and he drew comparisons to Mark Pryor. If by 'right call' you mean his struggles at A+ before turning the ship around at AA, i"m quite okay with a prospect struggling then finding his way.

Because it makes more sense than anointing a Kane County player TOR material based on one year.

I really wanted Jeff Hoffman, who likely would have been #1 this past year except he had TJ surgery.

I do understand the scenario. The Phillies want the top 2-3 prospects of the trading team and for them to eat all of Cole Hamels' money.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cole-hamels

Explain how that's productive. Ship off Bryant, Soler, and Russell and eat this dude's 20 mil? Its not. Philly doesn't have to trade him. They should.

And CJ Edwards coming out of nowhere in South Carolina or NC had issues of durability to begin win. Everybody loves his stuff, but doesn't realistically see him becoming a starter. As a bullpen guy or closer yikes he'll be good.

So what ace will be on trade market this year?

So the scenario is this: Jon Lester comes for no strings attached and will cost money. Do whatever you gotta do to sign the guy. Then draft the best quality pitching next June and the June after. Stop bulk drafting lesser talent, throwing it against the wall and hoping it works, because till this point, it hasn't.

SilenceS said a lot of what I would say here so I'll just add a few things. The Phillies are asking too much for Hamels but if they got realistic they would get a nice package for him. The problem there is that Ruben Amaro Jr. Doesn't know what he's doing. Where I disagree is this thought of a trading team eating his contract. That deal is an asset, not an albatross and adds to his value which is why Amaro is asking for the world. Again he's asking too much but the deal is below market at an average of $22.5 million per or $23 million if Hamels forces the trading team to pick up fifth year. Oakland overpaid for Samardzija but that same deal would probably be fair for Hamels. It may not be Amaro who trades him though as the Phillis ownership is running out of patience with him.

Also the gamble this FO took in not drafting pitchers with top picks is based on solid numbers that suggest that value is not there. Injuries tend to depreciate these guys pretty quickly and there is solid math that if you take multiple lower round pitchers with similar, albeit lesser developed, skill sets. It takes longer but the risk/reward ratio ends up being more similar than one would think based on surface numbers. The value of right handed power in the draft is higher than one to one comparisons pitching right now because that power has be pm at least as rare as TOR pitching with much less injury risk. An example are the constant trade rumors involving the Mets and the Cubs over Castro. In a recent interview on a NY sports show Peter Gammons was discussing this and the interviewr suggest Jacob deGrom for Castro in a deal to which Gammons replied "and who else besides deGrom?" Because the fact is that as a 24 year old SS with three All Star appearances and some (albeit not overwhelming) power Castro is worth much more than one pitcher who projects out as a #2 or high #3 for a variety of reason, Castro's power and deGrom's injury risk among them.

All this is not to say that pitching isn't valuable because it is and I have little doubt that sometime in the next 4-5 years the Cubs will probably have a TOR starter making $35 million per, but by "throwing stuff against the wall", or what is better described as a low risk/high numbers strategy, their #1 starter may make that money bu their #2 could very well make significantly less ensuring a sustainable strategy for maintaining a rotation. St. Louis has done something very similar for years but with a smaller budget than the Cubs will likely have in a few years. So yes the Cubs passed on Jon Gray in the 2013 draft but they also got several quality arms in that draft and no one would trade Bryant straight up for Gray right now.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: #Cubs : Jon Lester Update: Cubs Reportedly Very Serious, Braves Out of the Mix? bit.ly/1uZUxou #MLB

I could see the giants offer 6/150, especially since they have bumgarner under a very team friendly controlled contract thru 2019..

Which is more the reason why i think the cubs will need to add a 7th yr if they really really want him

 

[TC in Mississippi]

@TheCCO: #Cubs : Jon Lester Update: Cubs Reportedly Very Serious, Braves Out of the Mix? bit.ly/1uZUxou #MLB

I could see the giants offer 6/150, especially since they have bumgarner under a very team friendly controlled contract thru 2019..

Which is more the reason why i think the cubs will need to add a 7th yr if they really really want him

I just plain don't give him 7 unless it's hugely front loaded and they might not want to do that. Now the Yankees reportedly have interest. That's either out their from a desperate agent who doesn't see numbers as high as he'd like or they're really in it. If it's the latter watch out. The Yankees will blow everyone out of the water.

 

[Boobaby1]

I just plain don't give him 7 unless it's hugely front loaded and they might not want to do that. Now the Yankees reportedly have interest. That's either out their from a desperate agent who doesn't see numbers as high as he'd like or they're really in it. If it's the latter watch out. The Yankees will blow everyone out of the water.

Not sure what the lure is other than money, but I would bet a ton that the Yankees don't sign him. If I were Lester, I would take less money from the Red Sox for sure, or go to a team that is on the upswing like the Cubs who have youth and payroll flexibility to add players before I would head to New York who has not been very good for the money they spend.

I even wonder if Lester likes New York versus his familiar settings in Boston? Just my opinion though.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Not sure what the lure is other than money, but I would bet a ton that the Yankees don't sign him. If I were Lester, I would take less money from the Red Sox for sure, or go to a team that is on the upswing like the Cubs who have youth and payroll flexibility to add players before I would head to New York who has not been very good for the money they spend.

I even wonder if Lester likes New York versus his familiar settings in Boston? Just my opinion though.

If the Yankees don't deny this the price on Lester goes up. Could be that they've determined the Red Sox will sign him and they want them to pay as much as possible. Could also be his agent put it out there and if so NY will probably deny it soon. Could be the Giants aren't in the numbers Lester's people want to compete with Boston and Chicago. This feels like the end game. I bet he signs this week. I think it will be here, I wouldn't put money on that though.

 

[chibears55]

If the Yankees don't deny this the price on Lester goes up. Could be that they've determined the Red Sox will sign him and they want them to pay as much as possible. Could also be his agent put it out there and if so NY will probably deny it soon. Could be the Giants aren't in the numbers Lester's people want to compete with Boston and Chicago. This feels like the end game. I bet he signs this week. I think it will be here, I wouldn't put money on that though.

Part of me thinks if he really wanted to go back to Boston and it wasn't about getting the best offer, he would've never left without signing after their initial meeting.. they would've come to a mutual agreement right then and there..

I think the Giants are the key to all this...
If the Giants decide to up the Ante to 6/150, i think that where he goes unless Boston or Cubs trump that amount and id be surprise if they do.

 

[Boobaby1]

If the Yankees don't deny this the price on Lester goes up. Could be that they've determined the Red Sox will sign him and they want them to pay as much as possible. Could also be his agent put it out there and if so NY will probably deny it soon. Could be the Giants aren't in the numbers Lester's people want to compete with Boston and Chicago. This feels like the end game. I bet he signs this week. I think it will be here, I wouldn't put money on that though.

Chicken! LOL

It would be nice to table this conversation once and for all with him coming the Cubs.

Then we can move onto the next topic that will take two months to get resolved.

 

[SilenceS]

I am reading all over twitter that Lester is suppose to sign this week. The Cubs, Giants, and Red Sox are in. Red Sox are favorite and are believed to give the biggest offer of 6 years 145 million. Cubs and Giants are still negotiating.

 

[DewsSox79]

if its only money than he will sign with highest bidder. if he wants to win again he will sign with boston. giants i dont think are big players for him as much as it is reported.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

I am reading all over twitter that Lester is suppose to sign this week. The Cubs, Giants, and Red Sox are in. Red Sox are favorite and are believed to give the biggest offer of 6 years 145 million. Cubs and Giants are still negotiating.

Where did you see 6/145 offer from Boston
all ive been seeing is 6/110-120 from them
With cubs having the highest offer of 6/135+

 

[SilenceS]

Ive seen it from 6 years 138 to 6 years 145. I have also seen the Cubs at 6 years 135 and the Red Sox at 6 years 130.

 

[Parade_Rain]

People don't know the exact dollars of offers in private negotiations? Unbelievable!

 

[chibears55]

Lester meeting with the Giants today, so hopefully a decision will come before the meetings next week... then wheather or not they get him , cubs could start making their moves

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Lester meeting with the Giants today, so hopefully a decision will come before the meetings next week... then wheather or not they get him , cubs could start making their moves

My gut tells me that somebody gets eliminated in this derby today. If the Giants go to this meeting with their big boy pants on in could very well be the Cubs. If they were to offer say 6/$150 mil or even indicate they'd go a 7th year I think it comes down to Boston and SF. If SF is in the $130's for 6 I think it comes down to Boston and Chicago. SF has been burned on pitching deals before so it's hard for me to see them as a leader here but after losing Sandoval they sure could be if they want to. Like Tom Petty says, the waiting is the hardest part.