The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

On one hand I'd like them to build a frugal organization that doesn't need to pay free agents for past performance butt on the other I want to see a real step forward and in a practical sense I want to see them get an emerging ace in Jake Arrieta some protection so he's not carrying a staff on his shoulders so soon after beginning to establish himself.

Point 1: You want a team that is a top 5 income be run like the A's? So you want the Rickett's to turn $$$. Trust me they are not going to lower admission costs so what are you paying for?

Point 2: Jake had a strong year. Let's not talk abut ace or carrying the load until he has a track record going on. He went with a cutter this year that netted strong results. He is working on his change up for next year. I would ride that horse if he can pull together a complete serason vs 25-27 games as been his norm up to now.

I like that he went deep into games but at this point he is a #3 starter on a contender with potential.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Point 1: You want a team that is a top 5 income be run like the A's? So you want the Rickett's to turn $$$. Trust me they are not going to lower admission costs so what are you paying for?

Point 2: Jake had a strong year. Let's not talk abut ace or carrying the load until he has a track record going on. He went with a cutter this year that netted strong results. He is working on his change up for next year. I would ride that horse if he can pull together a complete serason vs 25-27 games as been his norm up to now.

I like that he went deep into games but at this point he is a #3 starter on a contender with potential.

That's essentially what I'm saying on Arietta. I don't think he's ready to be an ace and I'd like to see him develop without that pressure. If he's forced to ddo it I fear he takes a step back if for no other reason than the mental aspect.

As far as the team goes, I don't care about money in Ricketts' pockets at all, I just a want a team that has the flexibility to make moves when it needs to based on their own business paramaters. The Tribune spent a load of money but then didn't have enough to take the team over the top. The Lou Pineilla playoff failures had as much to do with lack of depth either from spending or development than they did with poor performance from the team's stars. I also don't think money wins championships anymore or the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels would be awash in them. Ideally I want a team that can overspend but does it when it needs to, not as a matter of course. Basically the St. Louis model with a slightly higher payroll. The Cardinals have settled in over the last 5 years to about a $110 million payroll. I'd like to see the Cubs settle in eventually at about $140 which should give them the flexibility to make almost any move they want whenever they want to make it without cutting in to their profits too much. Again I could care less how much money they make, but rest assured they do.

 

[brett05]

There would be links out there as well.

Maybe, maybe not. The fact is what I shared is not a hating comment. It's what I've heard. You can take it or leave it, I don't really care.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Point 1: You want a team that is a top 5 income be run like the A's? So you want the Rickett's to turn $$$. Trust me they are not going to lower admission costs so what are you paying for?

Point 2: Jake had a strong year. Let's not talk abut ace or carrying the load until he has a track record going on. He went with a cutter this year that netted strong results. He is working on his change up for next year. I would ride that horse if he can pull together a complete serason vs 25-27 games as been his norm up to now.

I like that he went deep into games but at this point he is a #3 starter on a contender with potential.

Agreed.

Arrieta is not an ace. Just because he's 1 of 5 in this rotation doesn't mean he's an 'ace.' I dont like when people confuse the terms. Aces go out and dominate every 5 days.

Arrieta isn't the kind of pitcher who you want to trot out game 1 of a 5 or 7 game series. He had a great 2014. Hardly something ace worthy. I'd like to see him build on it. Maybe he's a late bloomer, maybe he's a 1 hit wonder. I'm not going to ignore 4 years of him sucking at life because there is an outlier season.

I don't want this team to be run like the A's with money. The A's build it up, go for it, then sell it off and take 2-3 years to rebuild.

 

[Boobaby1]

Who is going to exceed 150 million would be my question? I think the Cubs top out at 145 or add a 7th year. It seems Boston is only willing to go up to 130 or so. I heard the Yankees could be sneaking in and dropping a 150 million dollar bid. I truly dont see the Giants as real players, but I have been wrong many times before. I am also confused by Heyman report. he said the Red Sox havent offered 130 million. He said they would be willing to go up to 130 million. These rumors are so hard to decipher.

Whether or not the Cubs add a 7th year, or go higher on the sixth remains to be seen.

This whole acquisition of young talent, pitching in the lower minors and such is supposed to eventually pay off. Hendricks and Wada alone have saved the Cubs a ton by offsetting E-Jax's contract.

That said, the Cubs need to get more pitchers like that, or Edwards, Johnson and the younger nucleus in Kane County to start developing into everyday pitchers. That In itself will help pay for the Lester contract if it comes to fruition, plus, Arrieta being cost controlled too.

Their is a reason why the Cubs went deep with Tanaka, and now Lester, and with they Cubs not bucking the Dodgers or Yankees (we hope), now is the time you pay a little more and get the man you want, and worry about the contract being worth it in the latter years later.

 

[SilenceS]

I would venture to guess, barring injury,We will see CJ Edwards at some point this year. He should start out at AAA and they added him to the 40 man roster. He doesnt really have much to prove in the minors anymore. He has dominated everywhere. I think they will be cautious with him, but they are going to take the baby gloves off sooner or later. His only drawback is can he hold up at a starters workload. There is only one way to find out.

 

[chibears55]

I would venture to guess, barring injury,We will see CJ Edwards at some point this year. He should start out at AAA and they added him to the 40 man roster. He doesnt really have much to prove in the minors anymore. He has dominated everywhere. I think they will be cautious with him, but they are going to take the baby gloves off sooner or later. His only drawback is can he hold up at a starters workload. There is only one way to find out.

Possible then the best case scenario for the cubs would be to add Lester this off season, add another TOR guy next off season, and start 2016 with a rotation of...

Lester
TOR
Arrieta
Hendricks
Edwards

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Possible then the best case scenario for the cubs would be to add Lester this off season, add another TOR guy next off season, and start 2016 with a rotation of...

Lester
TOR
Arrieta
Hendricks
Edwards

I give Jacob Turner a much better shot at being a long term rotation piece than I do Hendricks but other than that I would like to see something like that in 2016.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Getting nervous with SF in the picture. If they are offering comparable money, it would be tough to choose us over SF. I'm not sure which direction we go if Lester goes elsewhere. Scherzer will cost $180M and that type of deal has far too much risk associated with it.

As painful as it sounds, our best course of action might be saving our money until next year. We'll miss the playoffs again, get a decent pick, draft some pitching, and go all-in for 2016. It'll be brutal to wait another year but I'm not we have much of a choice.

 

[CSF77]

Agreed.

Arrieta is not an ace. Just because he's 1 of 5 in this rotation doesn't mean he's an 'ace.' I dont like when people confuse the terms. Aces go out and dominate every 5 days.

Arrieta isn't the kind of pitcher who you want to trot out game 1 of a 5 or 7 game series. He had a great 2014. Hardly something ace worthy. I'd like to see him build on it. Maybe he's a late bloomer, maybe he's a 1 hit wonder. I'm not going to ignore 4 years of him sucking at life because there is an outlier season.

I don't want this team to be run like the A's with money. The A's build it up, go for it, then sell it off and take 2-3 years to rebuild.

His Fip last year was at ace levels. He needs to prove that that was not a fluke. He has shown that he "can" perform at that level though.

 

[Boobaby1]

Getting nervous with SF in the picture. If they are offering comparable money, it would be tough to choose us over SF. I'm not sure which direction we go if Lester goes elsewhere. Scherzer will cost $180M and that type of deal has far too much risk associated with it.

As painful as it sounds, our best course of action might be saving our money until next year. We'll miss the playoffs again, get a decent pick, draft some pitching, and go all-in for 2016. It'll be brutal to wait another year but I'm not we have much of a choice.

First off, the Cubs already saved their money from last year. You also don't push the magic button and say "POOF" I want that free agent and land him.

The thing is, next year you will be back to where you should be this year if you wait. Their is nothing wrong with finding out and assessing what the young ones will do, but there also is no reason not to have a pitching staff that can keep you in games either while they are figuring it out.

We don't have to be reminded how tough it is to land a free agent, and if you don't strike now with Lester, it just increases the chances of them not signing another one next year because it will be even tougher, especially when the big boys (LA and NY) come back into the picture.

Get it done now, and if you have to overpay a little, you do so. In the end, it will aide in not having to overpay for every free agent, every year.

BTW, the Cubs are 0'fer in signing really good free agents they have targeted.....so. :shrug:

 

[SilenceS]

DYST Now ‏@DYST_Now

SOURCE: There is a growing confidence within the Cubs organization that Jon Lester will sign with them.

 

[chibears55]

DYST Now ‏@DYST_Now

SOURCE: There is a growing confidence within the Cubs organization that Jon Lester will sign with them.

Doesnt surprise me. .

Ive said before, i think if he really wanted to go back to Boston and Boston really wanted him.. he would've never left without them coming to an agreement that made both sides happy..

Also.. Boston saying they will go as high as 130 and not even match the cubs or go to 144, tells me yea theyd love him back but only at a certain price. ..

I think Boston going to try and cut a deal for Hamels ..


SF the key to how much and if the cubs get Lester..
If the Giants go aggressive right away with 6/150, im 99.9% sure he signs with them, only hope for cubs then could be the 7th yr.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

His Fip last year was at ace levels. He needs to prove that that was not a fluke. He has shown that he "can" perform at that level though.

Yay, a one year outlier!

Let's all blow our collective loads at once!

Show me consistency, and I'll proclaim he's an ace......

 

[SilenceS]

Yay, a one year outlier!

Let's all blow our collective loads at once!

Show me consistency, and I'll proclaim he's an ace......

No one should proclaim him an ace, but it isnt just because of last season that people think he will continue to succeed. Its because he changed his whole approach.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/building-jake-arrieta/

This is a great read on Arrieta and why it should continue. If you dont like that, you can look up KLaw and other guys who believe his change is here to stay. His peripherals dont show some sort of lucky year. They show a dominant pitcher. Arrieta controls that cutter/slider he will be an ace. That is one of the nastiest pitchers a pitcher threw last year. Arrieta always had tons of talent. He was just mechanically flawed. This is why Bosio has to be considered a top 3 pitching coach in baseball.

People said Wood would regress his numbers were lucky type of numbers. I do not read or see anyone saying the same about Arrieta. Time will tell, but I wouldnt dismiss another year like last year to be a good possibility.

 

[CSF77]

Yay, a one year outlier!

Let's all blow our collective loads at once!

Show me consistency, and I'll proclaim he's an ace......

That is why I said he was not an ace. He has pitched at that level last year but again has to prove it was legit.

2014 Fip:
Kershaw: 1.81
Arrieta: 2.26
Kluber: 2.35
King Felix: 2.56
Sale: 2.57
Richards: 2.60
Hughes: 2.65
Zimmerman: 2.68
Price: 2.78
Lester: 2.80
Quintana: 2.81
Scherzer: 2.85
Wainwright: 2.88
Strasburg: 2.94
Greinke: 2.97
Bumgarner: 3.05
Hamels: 3.07
Shark: 3.20

Ya like I said last year he was at ace levels. He needs to prove he can push 200 IP and keep in that select crowd before any ace tag be placed on him.

Thing is Kluber the same argument could be said but anyone calling him out? My main issue is him not going 30 games year as a starter. Does he have the make up for it? Yes I believe he does.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Time will tell, but I wouldnt dismiss another year like last year to be a good possibility.

I agree with this. I'm not dismissing this. I just disagree with the person CFS replied to who says he's an 'emerging ace.'

I also think Bosio isn't a top 3 pitching coach, but he's damn underrated/top 10 for sure.

FWIW, Righetti, Cooper, and Jim Hickey are. Mike Maddux too. McDowell in Atlanta too, but his pitchers had a bad year this year. Outlier again. What the hell happened to Mike Minor?

 

[SilenceS]

I agree with this. I'm not dismissing this. I just disagree with the person CFS replied to who says he's an 'emerging ace.'

I also think Bosio isn't a top 3 pitching coach, but he's damn underrated/top 10 for sure.

FWIW, Righetti, Cooper, and Jim Hickey are. Mike Maddux too. McDowell in Atlanta too, but his pitchers had a bad year this year. Outlier again. What the hell happened to Mike Minor?

I feel Bosio has done more with less then any pitching coach. Feldman and Hammel for starters. Arrieta and Shark turn the corner under him. I would love to see what he could do with real bonafide talent. The only one to regress was Jackson and I think that is some kind of mental block. Edwin Jackson is not as bad as he has pitched for the Cubs, but I dont want him pitching here anymore. I think he could go to another team and be a solid 5 for someone, but for some reason, he is like a mental midget here. This is all opinion of course.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I feel Bosio has done more with less then any pitching coach. Feldman and Hammel for starters. Arrieta and Shark turn the corner under him. I would love to see what he could do with real bonafide talent. The only one to regress was Jackson and I think that is some kind of mental block. Edwin Jackson is not as bad as he has pitched for the Cubs, but I dont want him pitching here anymore. I think he could go to another team and be a solid 5 for someone, but for some reason, he is like a mental midget here. This is all opinion of course.

I think his arm has just caught up to him.

Edwin Jackson has been known as an 'innings eater' his whole career. Not a 1 or 2, heck not even a 3 in a good rotation. He was the guy day 4 or 5 you throw out there and he throws 120 pitches and gives the bullpen a rest. 2006-2012 he was ridden like a horse and since modern day baseball is nothing like the days of old, and teams give pitch counts and innings counts--it's caught up to him.

Samarzdija was a late bloomer, played football till 23-24 then devoted full time to pitching to save his body. Arrieta may be too after some years of suckage/getting hammered in a good division.

I'd like to see him start doing something Dave Duncan-esque. I'll settle for one developed, legit ace.

But otherwise, what Righetti has done in San Fran, that's remarkable. Maddux too. Cooper has made some real good arms on the south side too. I wouldn't be surprised when Rodon and Sale become the next Mulder and Zito like young talents.

Of course, pitching to anyone not named Abreau on that team is an easy out.

 

[JosMin]

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SOURCE: There is a growing confidence within the Cubs organization that Jon Lester will sign with them.