The R.Pace good or bad at his job question still going.

[playthrough2001]

How well has Pace drafted?

“The Bears were really good in 2018, and are poised to be good for the next few years. The man responsible for that turnaround is Ryan Pace. He has used a combination of draft picks and free agents to assemble nearly the entirety of one of the most talented rosters in football.

But somehow Pace doesn’t get his due as one of the best general managers in the NFL, largely because he got a lot of bad press early on as he oversaw three necessary losing seasons to overhaul one of the oldest and worst rosters in the league. But I’m here to fix that today by highlighting just how good he’s been at the most important part of a GM’s job: drafting.

The premise of this study is simple enough: try to find a way to quantify how well teams have drafted since 2015. Of course, that’s easier said than done, because how do you quantify a draft? There is no one perfect metric to measure the success of a draft pick, so instead I used a bunch, hoping that they would combine overall to give us a clearer picture of draft success.

Here are the metrics I used, with a quick explainer for each:

1st team All-Pro nods: This is meant to be a measure of how well a team acquires top-end talent, the guys who can lead your roster to a championship.
Pro Bowl berths: Similar to All-Pros, but less demanding. Really good players can be Pro Bowlers without becoming All-Pros. Think of this as a measure of really good but not great starters.
Seasons as a starter: This is then intended to measure how many solid players teams acquire in a draft.
Career Added Value (AV): Pro Football Reference assigns a value to every season for every player, so I added this up for every draft pick from 2015-18. Higher AV = more total value from your draft picks (at least in theory).
Games played: This is more a measure of total depth measure than anything, because it counts everybody on the active roster the same. Basically a measure of how many picks stick around to contribute in some way, even if that’s mainly special teams.
Total data for every team (from Pro Football Reference) can be viewed below, with the teams placed in alphabetical order and average values for each metric on the bottom row.“

Continued at link...

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/how-well-has-ryan-pace-drafted

 

[Rory Sparrow]

How well has Pace drafted?

“The Bears were really good in 2018, and are poised to be good for the next few years. The man responsible for that turnaround is Ryan Pace. He has used a combination of draft picks and free agents to assemble nearly the entirety of one of the most talented rosters in football.

But somehow Pace doesn’t get his due as one of the best general managers in the NFL, largely because he got a lot of bad press early on as he oversaw three necessary losing seasons to overhaul one of the oldest and worst rosters in the league. But I’m here to fix that today by highlighting just how good he’s been at the most important part of a GM’s job: drafting.

The premise of this study is simple enough: try to find a way to quantify how well teams have drafted since 2015. Of course, that’s easier said than done, because how do you quantify a draft? There is no one perfect metric to measure the success of a draft pick, so instead I used a bunch, hoping that they would combine overall to give us a clearer picture of draft success.

Here are the metrics I used, with a quick explainer for each:

1st team All-Pro nods: This is meant to be a measure of how well a team acquires top-end talent, the guys who can lead your roster to a championship.
Pro Bowl berths: Similar to All-Pros, but less demanding. Really good players can be Pro Bowlers without becoming All-Pros. Think of this as a measure of really good but not great starters.
Seasons as a starter: This is then intended to measure how many solid players teams acquire in a draft.
Career Added Value (AV): Pro Football Reference assigns a value to every season for every player, so I added this up for every draft pick from 2015-18. Higher AV = more total value from your draft picks (at least in theory).
Games played: This is more a measure of total depth measure than anything, because it counts everybody on the active roster the same. Basically a measure of how many picks stick around to contribute in some way, even if that’s mainly special teams.
Total data for every team (from Pro Football Reference) can be viewed below, with the teams placed in alphabetical order and average values for each metric on the bottom row.“

Continued at link...

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/how-well-has-ryan-pace-drafted

I think Pace has been given enough time and now has become entrenched to such a degree that we can measure his "success" simply by what the Bears accomplish. We aren't trying to project Pace's future success because "he had a good draft and needs time to develop his players". He's consistently drafted in the top 10, so one would HOPE that Pace would have a decent draft record.

The whole concept of giving credit for drafting "starters" is nonsense...I'd rather draft one guy who starts for several years as opposed to pouring draft picks into a position every year.

Seasons as starters: 4th. Here again we see the Bears among the league’s best in terms of using the draft to land players who will become consistent contributors. In addition to the guys mentioned above, there are a number of players who have established themselves as starters (and good starters at that), including Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, James Daniels, Leonard Floyd, Anthony Miller, and Roquan Smith.

Whatever. I saw Pace also got credit for drafting a pro bowl QB in Mitch Trubisky. You'd think that would be a huge slam dunk for the organization, but...

 

[nc0gnet0]

How well has Pace drafted?

“The Bears were really good in 2018, and are poised to be good for the next few years. The man responsible for that turnaround is Ryan Pace. He has used a combination of draft picks and free agents to assemble nearly the entirety of one of the most talented rosters in football.

But somehow Pace doesn’t get his due as one of the best general managers in the NFL, largely because he got a lot of bad press early on as he oversaw three necessary losing seasons to overhaul one of the oldest and worst rosters in the league. But I’m here to fix that today by highlighting just how good he’s been at the most important part of a GM’s job: drafting.

The premise of this study is simple enough: try to find a way to quantify how well teams have drafted since 2015. Of course, that’s easier said than done, because how do you quantify a draft? There is no one perfect metric to measure the success of a draft pick, so instead I used a bunch, hoping that they would combine overall to give us a clearer picture of draft success.

Here are the metrics I used, with a quick explainer for each:

1st team All-Pro nods: This is meant to be a measure of how well a team acquires top-end talent, the guys who can lead your roster to a championship.
Pro Bowl berths: Similar to All-Pros, but less demanding. Really good players can be Pro Bowlers without becoming All-Pros. Think of this as a measure of really good but not great starters.
Seasons as a starter: This is then intended to measure how many solid players teams acquire in a draft.
Career Added Value (AV): Pro Football Reference assigns a value to every season for every player, so I added this up for every draft pick from 2015-18. Higher AV = more total value from your draft picks (at least in theory).
Games played: This is more a measure of total depth measure than anything, because it counts everybody on the active roster the same. Basically a measure of how many picks stick around to contribute in some way, even if that’s mainly special teams.
Total data for every team (from Pro Football Reference) can be viewed below, with the teams placed in alphabetical order and average values for each metric on the bottom row.“

Continued at link...

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/how-well-has-ryan-pace-drafted

MT was not a pro-bowl selection, he was something like the 5th alternate. Haven't looked at the rest of your data, but that right there kinda shows you had bias before you compiled your stats.

You are also failing to weight the statistics based on overall draft position. Case in point, it is much easier to select a pro bowl player if your picking 1st as opposed to if your picking 32nd. Compare the stats for the Bears vs the Patriots for example.

Shouldn't number of picks factor in as well? I mean surely this years Bears draft class has 0 chance of comparing to last years, for obvious reasons (no first or second round picks).

I would rather rate each years draft class and then compile an overall grade. For instance, how would you rate this draft:

2015

Kevin White Bust
Eddie Goldman Stud
Hronnis Grasu Bust
Jeremy Langford Bust
Adrian Amos I thought he was a stud but I am told Ha Ha is better So good, but not great?
tayo Fabuluje who?

One player remains on the team. Is this a D grade for this year?

 

[modo]

MT was not a pro-bowl selection, he was something like the 5th alternate. Haven't looked at the rest of your data, but that right there kinda shows you had bias before you compiled your stats.

Well he does have as many pro bowl appearances as Stafford.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

I find this whole topic fascinating (if not necessarily the posts within the thread).

Pace got all sorts of passes from the believers because Fox and the shit roster etc et al

He hires Nagy and the Bears look good. The defense fully arrives and Nagy looks to be implementing an offensive scheme that if it jumps ahead in progress like the defense did last year, we become legit SB contenders (shout-out to Novak on my specific use of language there).

No more reflecting back on past and if/when Pace shoulda/woulda/coulda ....I personally believe his record is his record but he definitely sinks or swims on how he directs this 12-4 playoff team from here.

Believers: No excuses though ... not injuries. Every team's got injuries.

Not "but it is only the second year in Nagy's system for Mitch and Coach said he needs 5 years". Fuck that noise.

No excuse whatsoever. He is his record. You want to "restart" his W-L to Nagy era, fine. I don't agree with the record "reset" but I won't "die on a hill" for it either.

Now it IS W-L. Period.

But I am not sure the believers here are all in that same mindset though. Time will tell.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Well he does have as many pro bowl appearances as Stafford.

Yeah but Stafford was the MVp of his pro-bowl, MT sucked.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Pace drafted 7th overall in 2015, and after four years all he has to show for it is Eddie Goldman. The Patriots drafted 32nd/last in 2015, and they have 3 starters, 2 backups, and 3 other players who are still in the NFL.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Pace drafted 7th overall in 2015, and after four years all he has to show for it is Eddie Goldman. The Patriots drafted 32nd/last in 2015, and they have 3 starters, 2 backups, and 3 other players who are still in the NFL.

Exactly my point.

 

[iueyedoc]

Exactly my point.

I heard the Lions had a great run a few years back where they reached a 2 decades long personal best of 0-2 in playoff games over a 3 year stretch.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I heard the Lions had a great run a few years back where they reached a 2 decades long personal best of 0-2 in playoff games over a 3 year stretch.

As opposed to the Bears playoff stretch of losing to the lowest seeded wild card team at home in a double doinker game that will go down in infamy as one of the worst chokes jobs of the 21st century? All while having a (cough cough) pro bowl QB and the greatest defense in the NFL (ask any Bears fan). This of course was preceded by there finishing last in the NFC North for four consecutive years.

 

[iueyedoc]

As opposed to the Bears playoff stretch of losing to the lowest seeded wild card team at home in a double doinker game that will go down in infamy as one of the worst chokes jobs of the 21st century?(KEK KEK) All while having a (cough cough) pro bowl QB and the greatest defense in the NFL (ask any Bears fan). This of course was preceded by there finishing last in the NFC North for four consecutive years.

I just hope our current Pro Bowl players don't decide the lesser of 2 evils is to retire in their prime, like B.Sanders and C Johnson, rather than play another game for such a shithole franchise 50 years removed from its 2nd playoff win.

Thanks Walter and Dick for not hanging it up early.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Pace sucks. I'd rather have Jim Finks.

 

[blinddeafmute]

Pace drafted 7th overall in 2015, and after four years all he has to show for it is Eddie Goldman. The Patriots drafted 32nd/last in 2015, and they have 3 starters, 2 backups, and 3 other players who are still in the NFL.

Did you just cherry pick Pace's rookie year draft to try to make a point? His one and only bad draft, which he was using the previous GM's scouting info. And then also leave out Amos as if it was a bad draft pick because he left as a free agent?

 

[nvanprooyen]

Imagine being a Lions fan where the highlight of your season is the offseason, because everyone is still 0-0.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Imagine being a Lions fan.....

 

[nvanprooyen]

Imagine being a Lions fan.....

Yeah. I guess the rest of that sentence was unnecessary.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Yeah. I guess the rest of that sentence was unnecessary.

I'm here for you fam

 

[Novak]

I just want to read well thought out football posts but Msadows and dabraneless70 post too often.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Did you just cherry pick Pace's rookie year draft to try to make a point? His one and only bad draft, which he was using the previous GM's scouting info. And then also leave out Amos as if it was a bad draft pick because he left as a free agent?

2016

Leonard Floyd good but not great. Not a bust but not worthy of being the ninth overall pick.
Cody Whitehair Stud
Bullard Meh
Nick Kwiatkoski meh
Deon Bush Meh
Deiondre' Hall who?
Jordan Howard (currently being traded for a ham sandwich)


Slightly better but Pace again fails to hit a home run with a top ten pick. Overal grade B-

 

[playthrough2001]

Pace drafted 7th overall in 2015, and after four years all he has to show for it is Eddie Goldman. The Patriots drafted 32nd/last in 2015, and they have 3 starters, 2 backups, and 3 other players who are still in the NFL.

Rory, the Pats had 11 picks in 2015. There are only two left on the roster.

Pace had six picks with one still on the roster.