The Sox Stove Is Broken: Offseason Discussion

[MRubio52]

I think this is the team that gets Dayton Moore fired.

 

[dabynsky]

In post #461 I said they could pass us up (which would probably mean second in the division), but my argument is that a lot has to go right for them, which includes the Sox severely regressing. Its a lot of ifs, Dabs.



I disagree, but only Joe will likely say you're fapping.

And that is ultimately all I've been saying if you read my posts. It just seems like that is a problem since my allegiance lies with another team.

 

[dabynsky]

I think this is the team that gets Dayton Moore fired.

Well Glass has issued an ultimatum that the team has to get better or he is gone by the end of the year, pretty sure this is Moore's last year of his contract. Which is probably why the Shields deal was made.

 

[DewsSox79]

Are the White Sox much better than a .500 team at this point in your estimation?

:dunno:

 

[nickofypres]

Are the White Sox much better than a .500 team at this point in your estimation?

I think so. Pythagorean W-L was 88-74 (which was better than Detroit's btw), they lost Youk, O-Dog, Myers, AJ, and added Keppinger, so were only down 1.2 wins using WAR. And we get Danks for a whole season (who we got nothing from last year, and as a starter has an average WAR of 4.4)

Rotation is solid, pen is above average, defense is above average, hitting is kind of meh but they hit well with RISP until September last year.

 

[nickofypres]

And that is ultimately all I've been saying if you read my posts. It just seems like that is a problem since my allegiance lies with another team.

I don't care that you're a Cubs and Tigers fan, dude. But you're putting way too much stock in their rotation being better, James Shields WAR was 4.0, Davis and Santana's are 0.8 and -0.8 so its a wash. Even if they get those 4 wins and become a 78 win team, still below average, which was my point.

 

[dabynsky]

I think so. Pythagorean W-L was 88-74 (which was better than Detroit's btw), they lost Youk, O-Dog, Myers, AJ, and added Keppinger, so were only down 1.2 wins using WAR. And we get Danks for a whole season.

Rotation is solid, pen is above average, defense is above average, hitting is kind of meh but they hit well with RISP until September last year.

I think you are somewhat overly optimistic on some of those points.

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't care that you're a Cubs and Tigers fan, dude. But you're putting way too much stock in their rotation being better, James Shields WAR was 4.0, Davis and Santana's are 0.8 and -0.8 so its a wash. Even if they get those 4 wins and become a 78 win team, still below average, which was my point.

I think you have to adjust it a bit based on decline but I generally agree that the Royals aren't that much better unless the super-specs remember that they're supposed to be awesome.

 

[nickofypres]

I think you are somewhat overly optimistic on some of those points.

Rotation is an injury risk (which is part of what would have to go right for the Royals to be better than us).

Sans, Reed, what was wrong with the pen last season? What was wrong with the defense?

Offense is meh.

What's there to be overly optimistic about?

 

[dabynsky]

I don't care that you're a Cubs and Tigers fan, dude. But you're putting way too much stock in their rotation being better, James Shields WAR was 4.0, Davis and Santana's are 0.8 and -0.8 so its a wash. Even if they get those 4 wins and become a 78 win team, still below average, which was my point.

Going by fangraphs their starting staff put up 5.5 WAR together. Shields by himself nearly doubles that total. That is why I keep saying you are underestimating just how terrible the rotation was last year, and how much they've upgraded from that point.

 

[dabynsky]

Rotation is an injury risk (which is part of what would have to go right for the Royals to be better than us).

Sans, Reed, what was wrong with the pen last season? What was wrong with the defense?

Offense is meh.

What's there to be overly optimistic about?

You failed to acknowledge career years that you got from players (AJ and Rios). The White Sox hit significantly better with RISP as you mentioned for most of the year, but there is zero evidence to support that players are capable of sustaining better numbers in those situations over time. I don't know how you can have any reasonable expectations for Danks at this point. The White Sox could play at their pyth record last year, but I don't think that is a lock.

 

[nickofypres]

Going by fangraphs their starting staff put up 5.5 WAR together. Shields by himself nearly doubles that total. That is why I keep saying you are underestimating just how terrible the rotation was last year, and how much they've upgraded from that point.

Santana is -0.9, Davis as a starter was 0.9 (average between the two seasons), which is a wash, and you're adding Shields' 4.3.

Adding 4 wins to Guthrie and Chen is good, but it's not all that impressive.

 

[nickofypres]

You failed to acknowledge career years that you got from players (AJ and Rios). The White Sox hit significantly better with RISP as you mentioned for most of the year, but there is zero evidence to support that players are capable of sustaining better numbers in those situations over time. I don't know how you can have any reasonable expectations for Danks at this point. The White Sox could play at their pyth record last year, but I don't think that is a lock.

I subtracted AJ's WAR from 2012 from the pyth for 2013, and Rios' average WAR is 4.4, in 2012 it was 4.2. Rios didn't technically play to his career average using WAR. But, whatever.

0 - 1.3 (Youk's 2012 in Chicago) - 2.6 (AJ's career year in 2012) - 0.1 (Orlando Hudson's tenure in Chicago last year), - 0 (Brett Myers' 2012 in Chicago) + 2.8 = - 1.2, which is why I said: "we're only down 1.2 WINS".

Fair enough on point 2.

And I already acknowledged the whole rotation is an injury risk.

 

[MRubio52]

You failed to acknowledge career years that you got from players (AJ and Rios). The White Sox hit significantly better with RISP as you mentioned for most of the year, but there is zero evidence to support that players are capable of sustaining better numbers in those situations over time. I don't know how you can have any reasonable expectations for Danks at this point. The White Sox could play at their pyth record last year, but I don't think that is a lock.

Running a quick guesstimation using CAIRO, wOBA, a back of the envelope RS/G formula and the Pythag W/L I think the Sox 90th percentile projection is 84 wins. All of that is of course, FWIW.

 

[dabynsky]

Santana is -0.9, Davis as a starter was 0.9 (average between the two seasons), which is a wash, and you're adding Shields' 4.3.

Adding 4 wins to Guthrie and Chen is good, but it's not all that impressive.

Their rotation going by your math has improved by 1.7 wins which is a very conservative estimate since you are using Santana's only season that was below 1, that is giving Guthrie only 91 innings from last year, and counting Chen as a starting when he was only the fourth highest WAR total amongst SP. The improvement is there, and the odds are that it will be substantial with potential trickle down effects to a more rested bullpen and so on.

I subtracted AJ's WAR from 2012 from the pyth for 2013, and Rios' average WAR is 4.4, in 2012 it was 4.2. Rios didn't technically play to his career average using WAR. But, whatever.

Fair enough on point 2.

And I already acknowledged the whole rotation is an injury risk.

Rios posted the highest OPS+ of his career last year, and given how wonky the defense ratings that explains the difference in WAR in my mind. I don't think we are that far off from the point. I just see more of an 85 win team and you seem to be more in the 88 area. I think again the differences in our opinion is a few games in each direction on the Sox and Royals which explains our difference of opinion.

Running a quick guesstimation using CAIRO, wOBA, a back of the envelope RS/G formula and the Pythag W/L I think the Sox 90th percentile projection is 84 wins. All of that is of course, FWIW.

I posted this while you put in this response, and as you can see we are at the same point here in opinion at this point.

 

[nickofypres]

I used Santana's 2012 WAR, which probably wasn't the best to do. Alright, so add his 1.3 career to 4.3 and -0.9 and that's still only 4.7, which is still only 4 wins. Which again is only 78 wins. But Chen has been pretty meh his whole career, a 96 ERA+ and a 0.6 WAR, same with Guthrie (who's been average) but still a career 103 ERA+ and a WAR of 1.8. Again, its better, but let's not get crazy.

Its reasonable to expect regression to both of their career means.

Shields who's solid, and two average guys in Santana and Guthrie then below average in Chen and Davis. Again, its better than 2012 but its not like that's hard.

 

[nickofypres]

Rios posted the highest OPS+ of his career last year, and given how wonky the defense ratings that explains the difference in WAR in my mind. I don't think we are that far off from the point. I just see more of an 85 win team and you seem to be more in the 88 area. I think again the differences in our opinion is a few games in each direction on the Sox and Royals which explains our difference of opinion.
I posted this while you put in this response, and as you can see we are at the same point here in opinion at this point.

Yes, Rios had a good year, but even if he regresses to his average that's still a similar WAR because of his defense (as you mentioned), because he is much better in RF than he is in centre.

 

[dabynsky]

I used Santana's 2012 WAR, which probably wasn't the best to do. Alright, so add his 1.3 career to 4.3 and -0.9 and that's still only 4.7, which is still only 4 wins. Which again is only 78 wins. But Chen has been pretty meh his whole career, a 96 ERA+ and a 0.6 WAR, same with Guthrie (who's been average) but still a career 103 ERA+ and a WAR of 1.8. Again, its better, but let's not get crazy.

Its reasonable to expect regression to both of their career means, I just don't get your fascination over their rotation.

It isn't fascination, but acknowledgement of the improvements that have been made. I really don't understand the math you were trying to put forward with Santana, but as I said a conservative estimate is that they have improved by 1.7 wins already. If you go by career numbers for Santana, Chen and Guthrie with the others in the rotation than that number increases 3.4. And that is giving the WAR for 6 starters last year compared to the five you've picked for this season.

 

[dabynsky]

Yes, Rios had a good year, but even if he regresses to his average that's still a similar WAR because of his defense (as you mentioned), because he is much better in RF than he is in centre.

Huh? He played RF all last year and his WAR dropped, due to the fact of scarcity of offense at the position. The WAR is unlikely to increase while staying at RF and especially if the offensive numbers fall to more career numbers or worse.

 

[nickofypres]

First my math was I added Santana's WAR from 2012, Davis' average WAR as a starter (since they'll be misusing him in the rotation), and adding Shields' WAR from 2012.

0.9 + 4.3 - 0.9 is 4.3, or, 4 wins better.

Then I did Santana's career WAR average of 1.3, + Davis' 0.9 + Shields average of 2.4 which equals 4.6.