The Sox Stove Is Broken: Offseason Discussion

[nickofypres]

I think the Royals could. I like their young team and I think they will surprise this year.

I feel like you underestimate the Royals because of their history of suck, but they are forming the nucleus of a winning team, and with any up and coming team they could start putting it together at any time (see 2012 Tigers, 2008 Rays, 2012 A's). The fact is the sport we are playing is baseball, where anything can happen, so you've to accept the possibility that this team might not be a contender in 2012 because cosmetically it we look like a weak team, but then again we can all hope that this team overachieves again in 2013 and contends for a division crown.

I love shitting on the Sox, believe me. Joe, Dews, and I are the vets of this forum and that is practically our past time. But can we be real here for a second. Please?

Royals added Santana, Davis, and Shields. Using WAR, Shields alone makes the Royals 4 wins better, Davis as a starter, and Santana counter each other.

For the Royals to pass up the Sox Hosmer, and Moustakas, have to bounce back. Alcides Escobar has to prove 2012 wasn't a fluke (2010, and 2011 say it was), Lorenzo Cain has to prove to be a solid everyday player, plus they have to hope Getz and Franceoer learn to hit.

Shields and Guthrie aren't bad, obviously, but Davis is much better suited for the pen and will probably struggle in the rotation like he did in Tampa when he was in their rotation, Ervin Santana is garbage, as is Bruce Chen (who is actually pretty shitty when he isn't pitching vs the Sox).

Their bullpen is pretty good, I'll give them that.

Royals are loaded with question marks, ifs, and unknowns. For them to pass us everything has to go right, and the Sox probably have to get hit with massive injuries (like, our whole rotation goes down)

Sure, Royals could pass us, like you said anything is possible and they could over achieve, but they have to have a lot go for them and I don't see it happening.

 

[whitesoxman77]

damn 901 and your subtweeting
:lol:

 

[nickofypres]

damn 901 and your subtweeting
:lol:

You guys, and the media cumming over the Royals is annoying. Its bad enough hearing the media deepthroating the overrated Tigers 24/7, now the Royals too? Can they win something before people (Dabs) start declaring them contenders for the division and wildcard?

 

[dabynsky]

You guys, and the media cumming over the Royals is annoying. Its bad enough hearing the media deepthroating the overrated Tigers 24/7, now the Royals too? Can they win something before people (Dabs) start declaring them contenders for the division and wildcard?

I've never said they are contenders for the wildcard, but that is mostly because I am not certain the Central winner will finish with more wins than the wildcard winners again.

 

[nickofypres]

I've never said they are contenders for the wildcard, but that is mostly because I am not certain the Central winner will finish with more wins than the wildcard winners again.

My mistake, I re-read the tweets. My bad.

 

[dabynsky]

My mistake, I re-read the tweets. My bad.

While I agree that the Royals are far from a sure thing, but you severely underestimating just how terrible the Royals rotation was last season. The Royals had a very serious argument for being one of the worst rotations in baseball last year. Only Jeremy Guthrie was even average as a starter according to ERA+. The Royals don't have to put together a great rotation or even a good rotation for the team to be much improved. Wade Davis's career ERA+ would have been the third best of any Royals starter last year for example. They have a pretty damn solid bullpen and the pieces for a dangerous lineup, filled with young players that have question marks. I've never said they are a guarantee to be a contender, but this idea that you can dismiss them is silly when they've improved their roster dramatically on paper and your club has not at this point.

 

[nickofypres]

If they added pieces to a good rotation, then sure, I would say their rotation for 2013 looks great, but as you pointed out, it was garbage. So they added Shields, Davis, and Santana to a cash-for-clunkers rotation.

2013 Rotation:
James Shields 107 ERA+ (career)
Jereme Guthrie 103 ERA+ (career)
Ervin Santana 94 ERA+ (career)
Wade Davis 90 ERA+ (his ERA+ when he was a starter in TB)
Bruce Chen 94 ERA+ (career)

Even if they do hit, and that is the rotation to back them up, that isn't all that great. Good hitting a below average rotation usually isn't a winning formula. Is that better than the last few years? Sure, but that isn't hard to do, and lets not give them oral just because they went from terrible to below average with a chance to be average.

And yeah, the Sox haven't done much, but its not like they've massively downgraded and the Royals are all that great. Call me silly, if you wan't, but they're still the Royals.

 

[Rice Cube]

The Royals are obviously improved, but 901 makes a good point about the marginal manner in which they improved...which is why Royals fans like Joe Pos and Rany are so pissed off that the Royals shot their load to acquire Shields and Davis.

 

[dabynsky]

If they added pieces to a good rotation, then sure, I would say their rotation for 2013 looks great, but as you pointed out, it was garbage. So they added Shields, Davis, and Santana to a cash-for-clunkers rotation.

2013 Rotation:
James Shields 107 ERA+ (career)
Jereme Guthrie 103 ERA+ (career)
Ervin Santana 94 ERA+ (career)
Wade Davis 90 ERA+ (his ERA+ when he was a starter in TB)
Bruce Chen 94 ERA+ (career)

Even if they do hit, and that is the rotation to back them up, that isn't all that great. Is that better than the last few years? Sure, but that isn't hard to do, and lets not give them oral just because they went from terrible to below average with a chance to be average.

Right but that was a team that won 72 games last year, and their rotation has gone from terrible to below average at this point. This is what their starting staff put up last year:
Chen 81
Hochevar 71
Mendoza 97
Guthrie 130
Smith 77
Sanchez 53

Seriously three pitchers had an ERA+ with 20 of average. There are dramatically better than they were even with all the flaws that exist on their roster. That also doesn't factor in the number of innings that this is likely to get. The Royals threw the second or third fewest innings in the AL, and that should only help a strength of the team in its bullpen. They are better than they were and the top two teams have gotten worse on paper. If that is giving them oral, I suppose you can add that to the list of horrible things I do I guess.

 

[dabynsky]

The Royals are obviously improved, but 901 makes a good point about the marginal manner in which they improved...which is why Royals fans like Joe Pos and Rany are so pissed off that the Royals shot their load to acquire Shields and Davis.

I definitely can understand their frustration with marginal improvements, and Drayton's moves seem very Hendry-esque in GMing for his job this year. But I have been far from crowning them the best team in the Central or even the second best team. I have said that they have dramatically improved their pitching staff and have a number of places for reasonable expectations of growth in young talent that will make them tougher than the year before. On paper they are dramatically better than they were last year, and the teams at the top have taken a step back.

 

[nickofypres]

Right but that was a team that won 72 games last year, and their rotation has gone from terrible to below average at this point. This is what their starting staff put up last year:
Chen 81
Hochevar 71
Mendoza 97
Guthrie 130
Smith 77
Sanchez 53

Seriously three pitchers had an ERA+ with 20 of average and only three . There are dramatically better than they were even with all the flaws that exist on their roster. They are better than they were and the top two teams have gotten worse on paper. If that is giving them oral, I suppose you can add that to the list of horrible things I do I guess.

I never said the Royals didn't get better, I said that they wen't from terrible to below average. I guess below average teams can get lucky and win the division? I mean, it almost worked for them in 2003? I don't know why you have to run to the aid of Sox central rivals, but the Royals hardly got "dramatically" better.

Ii I may use a metaphor here: raising your GPA from a 1 to 1.5 isn't raising your GPA dramatically.

 

[nickofypres]

I definitely can understand their frustration with marginal improvements, and Drayton's moves seem very Hendry-esque in GMing for his job this year. But I have been far from crowning them the best team in the Central or even the second best team. I have said that they have dramatically improved their pitching staff and have a number of places for reasonable expectations of growth in young talent that will make them tougher than the year before. On paper they are dramatically better than they were last year, and the teams at the top have taken a step back.

Alright, Dabs, real talk.

Where do you honestly think the Royals finish in the division, and how many wins do they have?

 

[Rice Cube]

I'd be surprised if the Royals finished higher than third but I wouldn't be too shocked if they took second place. I don't think Detroit took too much of a step back though. I think every team's goal in the division should obviously be to topple the Tigers.

 

[dabynsky]

I never said the Royals didn't get better, I said that they wen't from terrible to below average. I guess below average teams can get lucky and win the division? I mean, it almost worked for them in 2003? I don't know why you have to run to the aid of Sox central rivals, but the Royals hardly got "dramatically" better.

And I don't know why saying that the Royals got better, we can argue the degree, draws such ire. I've hardly crowned their asses, but I don't get why you can just wave your hand right now and say that they aren't even in the picture.

And furthermore their rotation has gone from terrible (85 ERA+ average from the six SPs that are listed on B-Ref) to below average (97 ERA+ average from the five SPs you listed in your post). As we already discussed their bullpen is hardly terrible or below average. The lineup is incredibly young and could put up another subpar year like last year or many premium young talents could take a step forward. That is why everyone I think has agreed that this team is better than it was. Is it enough to close the 13 game gap between it and the Sox. I don't know and neither do you at this point. That is the only point I've ever raised, and wouldn't have raised if you hadn't chosen to start this discussion again.

 

[dabynsky]

Alright, Dabs, real talk.

Where do you honestly think the Royals finish in the division, and how many wins do they have?

If I had to put a number on it right now when there is still a number of moves to be made by all teams, I would put 80 wins at this point. I just believe strongly in variance, and that every team has a number of huge questions right now that makes it impossible to simply write teams off at this point. The Royals pythagorean record was 74 wins last year and I don't think 6 wins is that huge of a jump given the substantial improvements to the staff.

 

[dabynsky]

I'd be surprised if the Royals finished higher than third but I wouldn't be too shocked if they took second place. I don't think Detroit took too much of a step back though. I think every team's goal in the division should obviously be to topple the Tigers.

While often overrated thier bullpen wasn't terribly strong last year and they lost Valverde who was a decent closer. Also you don't know what you are getting from V-Mart at this point. I agree that the Tigers remain the most talented team in the division which I am sure is me :fap: to the kitties.

 

[Rice Cube]

You'd better hope this doesn't happen...

[video=youtube;YSp2KGMQEk8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSp2KGMQEk8[/video]

 

[DewsSox79]

all the royals will be is a pain in the ass and a spolier. they may close to being a .500 team.

 

[dabynsky]

all the royals will be is a pain in the ass and a spolier. they may close to being a .500 team.

Are the White Sox much better than a .500 team at this point in your estimation?

 

[nickofypres]

In post #461 I said they could pass us up (which would probably mean second in the division), but my argument is that a lot has to go right for them, which includes the Sox severely regressing. Its a lot of ifs, Dabs.

While often overrated thier bullpen wasn't terribly strong last year and they lost Valverde who was a decent closer. Also you don't know what you are getting from V-Mart at this point. I agree that the Tigers remain the most talented team in the division which I am sure is me :fap: to the kitties.

I disagree, but only Joe will likely say you're fapping.