Theo Epstein Delivers Death Sentence to Chicago Cubs Future

[TL1961]

My points of contentions are the following:

1) Our allegedly high-ranking farm system is curiously devoid of pitching talent. We have CJ from the Rangers in the Garza deal but aside from him we're frighteningly thin. You figure two out four of our positional players (probably Baez and Bryant) will become good, powerful hitters in the majors. Unfortunately two strong hitters will not translate into W's when our pitching staff is getting rocked.

2) The supposedly tried and true method of losing 100 games a year and stock-piling high draft picks typically results in prolonged and sustained failure (see Astro's and Pirates as exhibits A and B). We're basically hinging our future on Bryant, Baez, Almora, and Soler. Remember when we valued Corey Patterson (a 5-tool Ken Griffey Jr-type) and Hee-Sop Choi (a perennial 40-HR 1st basemen) as future stars? What type of careers did they ultimately end up having? Soler will be a bust -- you can take that to the bank.

3) Now we have a deeply engrained culture of profound losing at Wrigley. The years of '07 and '08 are long gone. Bringing up two guys in 2015 who can actually play isn't going to change that. When Bryant and Baez get here in 2015, they'll both probably hit .300 but end result of Wins and Losses will not change. We need half a dozen arms to promote along with them and we simply don't have them.

My best guess is by 2016 we still won't win more than 80-85 games, Wrigley will be half full, Theo will be on his third manager, and Wrigley renovations won't be near completion. I also think that will be the best year of Theo and Jed and the future will be so bleak that the existence of the franchise will be seriously in question. The future of Wrigley might very well be a museum and, honestly, it might be for the best.

I'll take the bet on your 2016 predictions. We'll make the over/under 2.5. I'll take the under. A clean sweep pays 10X. Name the amount.

 

[TL1961]

This is probably the most clueless post about the Cubs

Here's reasons why Cubs shouldnt be compared to Houston and Pit
1. Better scouts and player development system
2. Money to bring in Free Agents when the young guys come up

Just because you send a kid to school doesnt mean he will be smart. He needs good teachers. Just like baseball players need good coaches. Some teams just have better coaches then others. Simple fact.

Actually, Houston hired away the Cardinals' director of scouting and more. They have a minor league system ranked higher than the Cubs. (And to correct another one of DJ's misrepresentations....Houston hasn't had a history of 100-loss seasons. The last two, but that's the same time frame as the Cubs, so hardly can say we're following their lead of losing 100 games a year to build.)

 

[TL1961]

Because Theo Baseball has made a lot of great coaching hires in his two+seasons in Chicago!

He hasn't made "a lot", period! He has hired TWO, and one hasn't started yet. Spin much?

 

[justaChifan]

He hasn't made "a lot", period! He has hired TWO, and one hasn't started yet. Spin much?

Two what?

Managers or Coaches?

There is a difference.

 

[daddies3angels]

Two things about the Cubs current course:

1. Small market teams build thru the farm system because they don't have the money to acquire top free agents.
2. There is no guarantee your minor leaguers will pan out. Putting all of your hopes on young guys is a formula for failure.

The Cubs have the money to build a serious contender and field a team Cubs fans can be proud of. The Cubs are a cash cow and the Ricketts family have every intent to operate at the lowest possible cost while reaping profits from the longest suffering fanbase in ALL of professional sports. In short, you guys are getting bent over and rocked without the benefit of a reach around.

Been saying this for 2+ yrs

 

[nwfisch]

He hasn't made "a lot", period! He has hired TWO, and one hasn't started yet. Spin much?

And the first he hired set the record for most losses in Cub history. Whoops.

 

[justaChifan]

Theo, under Ricketts mandate, was told to build the strongest farm system in baseball. (on the fans dime)
Not so much for sustained success, but cost controlled success.
Any top prospect that pans out and nears stardom and free agency not willing to sign a team friendly long term contract? You're traded for prospects.
Replenish with the farm.
That's why with Rizzo and Castro faltering (after signing team friendly contracts) got them a little concerned and Sveum fired.

 

[dabynsky]

Well, I am not saying if the Cubs are doing right or not because its about half way. The buying of FA isn't because they are going a different route. They aren't buying FA because Ricketts will not spend money until he starts bringing in revenue from his renovations. I think that is pretty clear. I will say that the Cubs HAVE done what Theo has done before. Andy McPhail was brought in to build a farm and he did. Him and Hendry were the main reasons the Cubs had a top 5 farm in the early 2000's. Its just started dissipating because of the ridiculous ownership the Cubs were under. Will what Theo is doing work? I don't know. They have to come up here and perform to say that. See, people don't see it but Hendry and Theo are very similar with the ownership handcuffs just opposite. Hendry was told to spend on big league team to sell the team. Theo was told to build a farm and lower the payroll because of Ricketts. Theo hands are tied with FA. Ricketts has a set cap and he keeps lowering it. Hard to put a team together when you are a big market team spending like a mid market. The only shot Theo has is prospects.

And that seems to be the point that is constantly neglected here. Andy MacPhail took over as President of the Cubs in 1994. While the team tried to piecemeal respectable rosters together throughout that time period while holding onto marketable players to boost ticket sales, it took six years to turn the Cubs into a top farm system that provide a huge chunk of the resources that fueled the playoff rosters of the 2000s. Theo Epstein has taken two years to take a bottom tier farm system and turn it into a top five by just about everyone's ranking system.

They could have easily outdone the win totals the past two years, but the idea that it could have been done at zero cost to the future is flatly false. And has been shown to be true again and again. Again the argument could be made that at the end of the day it would be a better move to sacrifice the future, but lets finally recognize that every move comes at a cost.

 

[daddies3angels]

Theo, under Ricketts mandate, was told to build the strongest farm system in baseball. (on the fans dime)
Not so much for sustained success, but cost controlled success.
Any top prospect that pans out and nears stardom and free agency not willing to sign a team friendly long term contract? You're traded for prospects.
Replenish with the farm.
That's why with Rizzo and Castro faltering (after signing team friendly contracts) got them a little concerned and Sveum fired.

I dont blame Theo for any of this. I truly believe its all Ricketts fault. All he cares about is $ and not winning. Yes they will win way they are building things it just be in 2020's. Takes teams that build like Cubs are doing 10+ yrs to start winning. Just very sad for Cub fans

 

[daddies3angels]

And that seems to be the point that is constantly neglected here. Andy MacPhail took over as President of the Cubs in 1994. While the team tried to piecemeal respectable rosters together throughout that time period while holding onto marketable players to boost ticket sales, it took six years to turn the Cubs into a top farm system that provide a huge chunk of the resources that fueled the playoff rosters of the 2000s. Theo Epstein has taken two years to take a bottom tier farm system and turn it into a top five by just about everyone's ranking system.

They could have easily outdone the win totals the past two years, but the idea that it could have been done at zero cost to the future is flatly false. And has been shown to be true again and again. Again the argument could be made that at the end of the day it would be a better move to sacrifice the future, but lets finally recognize that every move comes at a cost.

Sure is funny how STL and BOS keep putting out Top 5 farms WHILE being in WS contention year in and out

 

[dabynsky]

Sure is funny how STL and BOS keep putting out Top 5 farms WHILE being in WS contention year in and out

And how did they get to that point to begin with? Just because they weren't disasters of organizations for decades doesn't mean we can just fast forward to the same point that they are at.

 

[daddies3angels]

And how did they get to that point to begin with? Just because they weren't disasters of organizations for decades doesn't mean we can just fast forward to the same point that they are at.

Your saying it comes to cost at Cubs trying to win that they wouldnt have top picks to get better farm. Where BOS and STL have been picking in bot 10 for last decade and still have a Top 5 farm TODAY. Means while they picking that far down they still scout and develope well. Thats where Cubs HAVE to get better. Scouting and developing. Lets not act like to get a top farm they have to lose yr after yr. Cause its not true.

 

[dabynsky]

Your saying it comes to cost at Cubs trying to win that they wouldnt have top picks to get better farm. Where BOS and STL have been picking in bot 10 for last decade and still have a Top 5 farm TODAY. Means while they picking that far down they still scout and develope well. Thats where Cubs HAVE to get better. Scouting and developing. Lets not act like to get a top farm they have to lose yr after yr. Cause its not true.

And that ignores that the draft has changed. You know how Boston has kept a top 5 farm system despite picking towards the bottom? They often were one of the top spenders in the draft. Boston would also constantly add compensation picks as well. No one is arguing that the Cubs don't need to get better at drafting and scouting, but to sit there and constantly say that Boston and St. Louis thrived in a completely different draft environment ignores the reality of the baseball marketplace today. No one has said that it takes losing to build a top farm system, but the time it takes to get to that point is definitely a factor when the top talent in a draft no longer slides down due to signability issues.

 

[justaChifan]

Theo, under Ricketts mandate, was told to build the strongest farm system in baseball. (on the fans dime)
Not so much for sustained success, but cost controlled success.
Any top prospect that pans out and nears stardom and free agency not willing to sign a team friendly long term contract? You're traded for prospects.
Replenish with the farm.
That's why with Rizzo and Castro faltering (after signing team friendly contracts) got them a little concerned and Sveum fired.

Dabs, do you think theirs any merit in this post?

 

[dabynsky]

Dabs, do you think theirs any merit in this post?

I agree that Theo has been handcuffed by Ricketts financially. I am not sure that I see the front office and ownership on the same page about it having to be cost controlled success. I think the front office is aware of the fact that with declining PED use a more normal aging curve will apply to players and that combined with anyone showing any talent early on in their careers being locked up until they are 30+ means that a farm system is even more critical than before. The Cubs had zero impact players on their roster under 30 when Epstein took over. None, and the only way to get those guys is to trade for them or develop them. And the reality is that each of those routes require the same thing which is prospects. Now whether the motives behind this at the ownership level is just making money or the reality of their financial situation is beyond my knowledge and the evidence available to us.

Perhaps I am naieve, but I don't see Epstein coming here with no chance to succeed long term. I don't see the incentive for a guy on a five year deal to continue to just put out rosters with no chance for success. I see a shift in the focus as more resources are moved to the short term as multiple impact level prospects are nearing major league ready. Maybe I am wrong and this a 70 million payroll in a couple of seasons, but I really think we see more and more pieces being added to the major league roster from a variety of means now that the farm system is nearly back to healthy (still short those waves of pitching).

 

[daddies3angels]

I agree that Theo has been handcuffed by Ricketts financially. I am not sure that I see the front office and ownership on the same page about it having to be cost controlled success. I think the front office is aware of the fact that with declining PED use a more normal aging curve will apply to players and that combined with anyone showing any talent early on in their careers being locked up until they are 30+ means that a farm system is even more critical than before. The Cubs had zero impact players on their roster under 30 when Epstein took over. None, and the only way to get those guys is to trade for them or develop them. And the reality is that each of those routes require the same thing which is prospects. Now whether the motives behind this at the ownership level is just making money or the reality of their financial situation is beyond my knowledge and the evidence available to us.

Perhaps I am naieve, but I don't see Epstein coming here with no chance to succeed long term. I don't see the incentive for a guy on a five year deal to continue to just put out rosters with no chance for success. I see a shift in the focus as more resources are moved to the short term as multiple impact level prospects are nearing major league ready. Maybe I am wrong and this a 70 million payroll in a couple of seasons, but I really think we see more and more pieces being added to the major league roster from a variety of means now that the farm system is nearly back to healthy (still short those waves of pitching).

Castro sure was a top SS until Theo brass tried to change him into something he is not. Also Baez like to say hello. He was a Hendry pick. Also had Garza who is impact talent. Not #1 but was legit 3 and sometimes showed promise of 2. Shark does have impact talent just 10 cent brain

 

[dabynsky]

Castro sure was a top SS until Theo brass tried to change him into something he is not. Also Baez like to say hello. He was a Hendry pick.

Castro was a slightly above average offensive SS when Epstein took over and Baez was in Arizona. There were no true difference makers on the 25 man roster. Now either of those players might develop into those things, but at the point when Theo took over they weren't.

 

[daddies3angels]

Castro was a slightly above average offensive SS when Epstein took over and Baez was in Arizona. There were no true difference makers on the 25 man roster. Now either of those players might develop into those things, but at this point neither of them were that at the time Theo took over.

you didnt say 25 man roster. You said was left with 0 impact players under 30. There was some talent. i agree Theo has done a GREAT job building farm which was is a must but has built an awfull MLB roster and has been filling it with AAAA players for last 2 yrs and i assume will happen for 3rd straight offseason. Yes Dale had alot of blame to put on Rizzo and Castro but Theo should have some to. No way should young players there age should be main compenents in a lineup. They should have Vets to look up to that are legit MLB talent. By putting AAAA talent around them they felt like they had to carry team on there shoulders which is just wrong to do with such young players. Rizzo should be betting 5-6 range and Castro 6-7 range. Instead they have to be in top 3 cause of talent around them. Whats scares me even more is that when Bryant, Baez, Soler, etc come up they wont have any legit MLB Vets to lean on. They have to lean on 2 guys that have been losing 95+ games for last yrs. Cubs need to add a legit MLB bat that the young guys can lean on.

 

[X]

LOL no.

You'd know if its KB, he thinks theo is a fucktard--and he still is. Not enough insults in OP's post.

He also would take a shot at the dipshit mods here, because they truly are the most incompetent bunch of retards I've seen--except Rush. X and Dabs are dbags.

Dammit. I had gone all day without being called a name. Heart = broken.

 

[dabynsky]

you didnt say 25 man roster. You said was left with 0 impact players under 30. There was some talent. i agree Theo has done a GREAT job building farm which was is a must but has built an awfull MLB roster and has been filling it with AAAA players for last 2 yrs and i assume will happen for 3rd straight offseason. Yes Dale had alot of blame to put on Rizzo and Castro but Theo should have some to. No way should young players there age should be main compenents in a lineup. They should have Vets to look up to that are legit MLB talent. By putting AAAA talent around them they felt like they had to carry team on there shoulders which is just wrong to do with such young players. Rizzo should be betting 5-6 range and Castro 6-7 range. Instead they have to be in top 3 cause of talent around them. Whats scares me even more is that when Bryant, Baez, Soler, etc come up they wont have any legit MLB Vets to lean on. They have to lean on 2 guys that have been losing 95+ games for last yrs. Cubs need to add a legit MLB bat that the young guys can lean on.

I said the Cubs. That would be the major league roster, which is the only thing that matters according to most around here. The fact is that the Cubs were a mess at every level when Theo Epstein took over and that needs to be acknowledged when we talk about what is and isn't possible.