Trade deadline banter

[CSF77]

People need to slow their roll on Lackey. They aren't going to cut him. This is a team already bumping up against the luxury tax so you don't just throw away a guy who's costing you $8 mil or so for the rest of the year. They almost certainly will ride his contract out. This is especially true when you have no idea on Hendricks' status.

As for Doolittle I don't really see the point. Uehara is effectively a LHP with his splits. Dunesing has been pretty good in Wood's low leverage role. And I'm not really sure Montgomery is better in the rotation anyways. Having someone you can confidently send out for 2-3 innings is a huge deal. It allows you to save your other bullpen guys. Plus, if you're assuming they trade for Gray, you're going to have Arrieta, Lester, Gray, Lackey + one of Hendricks and Butler. Obviously that's Hendricks if healthy but as mentioned we don't know. Point here being, you don't need to use Montgomery in the rotation. If you wanna rest the starters when rosters expand and use Montgomery as a 6th starter than sure go for it.

I'd be greatly opposed to trading more resources on another reliever because they still have yet to solve their starter situation going into 2018. Ok sure if you get Gray that helps but Butler/Montgomery aren't sure things. And you still have to replace Lackey. I'd prefer they save their resources because Gray is already going to cost a ton and you may need some prospects for other stuff such as that other starter.

I'm pretty sure Mike starts the rest of the year and Butler goes to AAA when Kyle gets back. If they trade for a SP it will be to replace Lackey who is ineffective and not on the roster.

That way they would have Lackey, Hendricks, Montgomery and (say Grey) then they can targe Darvish in the off season.

Now yes they have issues with not having a high leverage middle relief. They have Edwards and Grimm right now from the right side but a guy like Doolittle comes with 2 years of control and is a pitcher that can change momentum.

The other guy I'm thinking of is Hand from SD who is in that role also.

Sure you could take a conservative approach and keep Montgomery in the pen and just target Grey or they can do that and set up for the future.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm pretty sure Mike starts the rest of the year and Butler goes to AAA when Kyle gets back. If they trade for a SP it will be to replace Lackey who is ineffective and not on the roster.

I strongly doubt this because if this were the move they would have done it when Anderson went down and called up a reliever rather than Butler. I think they believe in Butler enough to give him a chance. My view is more they will trade for a young starter and push Lackey into the #5 role or put Hendricks there. I don't know that Maddon really views guys in a typical #1-#5 as we saw with Hendricks starting the year as the #5. But the point here would be more you're going with Arrieta, Lester, <trade target>, Hendricks and Lackey as your starters. I mean I get why people are upset about Lackey but as your #5 starter you can really do a lot worse than him and it wont really matter in terms of the playoffs.

As for relievers, I'm not seeing it to be honest. I mean I could see them grabbing someone super cheap like they did with Rodney 2 years ago but I really don't see them targeting an impact reliever.

 

[chibears55]

If they do get another starter and its Lester Arrieta new starter Hendricks and Lackey..

Then they probably just move Montgomery and Butler to the pen.. Which would improve the pen greatly

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[Diehardfan]

If they do get another starter and its Lester Arrieta new starter Hendricks and Lackey..

Then they probably just move Montgomery and Butler to the pen.. Which would improve the pen greatly

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This is actually a pretty good idea. I don't think either guy will be a reliable starter long term, mostly because they throw too many pitches...even keeping the walks down, they are both constantly into deep counts. On the other hand, Montgomery has already proven his worth bouncing back and forth between long and short relief....Butler could do the same with some work. At 27 and 26, they could be a nice part of the Cub's bullpen for awhile. I know Strop is in his 30's and I don't think Rondon is far behind...Im fairly certain they are both on their last Cub contracts.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If they do get another starter and its Lester Arrieta new starter Hendricks and Lackey..

Then they probably just move Montgomery and Butler to the pen.. Which would improve the pen greatly

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Depending on the guy he might slot in at 2. Lester, Sonny Gray, Hendricks, Arrieta would be a solid rotation going into the playoffs and I agree that Butler could be a good addition to the pen at some point.

 

[brett05]

Jimemez and Candy for Q, do you make the deal and not lose anyone off of the 25?

 

[CSF77]

L. Tax:

2017 $195,000,000
2018 $197,000,000
2019 $206,000,000


right now $172,199,881

They can take on 20 mil

 

[CSF77]

Jimemez and Candy for Q, do you make the deal and not lose anyone off of the 25?

yes I would.

 

[brett05]

yes I would.

I think I would take the deal too. Gives the White Sox a potential impact OF and at least a reasonable chance at being an average 3b for a cost controlled young TOR

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jimemez and Candy for Q, do you make the deal and not lose anyone off of the 25?

Yes, I make that deal. I would think the White Sox would prefer Caratini to Candelario though. At least I would if I were them.

 

[beckdawg]

L. Tax:

2017 $195,000,000
2018 $197,000,000
2019 $206,000,000


right now $172,199,881

They can take on 20 mil

There's other things figured into it than just the 40 man roster. I believe draft signings are as well as any IFA's. And the thing is their 2016 opening day was $171,611,834. They finished the season $205,917,980. Granted you brought Chapman over at the deadline but he was only making ~$11.3 mil half of which the cubs were responsible for. Long story short here you never have as much money as it appears.

 

[chibears55]

Depending on the guy he might slot in at 2. Lester, Sonny Gray, Hendricks, Arrieta would be a solid rotation going into the playoffs and I agree that Butler could be a good addition to the pen at some point.

You would think/hope if they do make a trade it's to upgrade the rotation with someone who will slot in as a top 3 of rotation and will stay past this season...

Epstein has about 3 to 4 weeks to decide if he going to go for another strong WS push or ride it out with what he has and see if they can get it going themselves..

Wait til off season to address the rotation and bullpen..

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[chibears55]

Jimemez and Candy for Q, do you make the deal and not lose anyone off of the 25?

I'd hate to lose Jiminez..
I think he going to be a solid player..

Right now, I'd rather move Schwarber and take my chances to wait and see what Jiminez can bring when he comes up..

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[brett05]

I don't think Kyle gets you a TOR anymore if he ever did. The Cubs seemed to always have overvalued him IMO.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't think Kyle gets you a TOR anymore if he ever did. The Cubs seemed to always have overvalued him IMO.

I don't agree, I don't think there's any change in how scouts perceive him now from how they did before. He's essentially a second year player and he's struggling. If you thought he had potential to be a top hitter in the game you still do. I do and I think the Cubs do. I'm sure other teams do too. However, at the deadline this year his value is lessened because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality mid season. In the offseason if they wanted to move him for pitching there would be multiple takers.

 

[beckdawg]

He's essentially a second year player and he's struggling.

He has a .216 ISO and a 13.5% walk rate. There's 17 players in the majors with a better walk rate and 43 with a better ISO. He's also 3rd on the cubs in hard hit rate behind Zobrist and Montero. All I can say is pray for major league pitching if he ever gets "hot." He's also got the lowest BABIP in the majors at .202. Manny Machado is .232 and hitting .218/.292/.423. Carlos Santana is .225 and hitting .211/.305/.384. So that should really put Schwarber's .178/.299/.394 in perspective. He's got a better walk rate and ISO than both. And I'm certain any team would jump at the chance to grab Machado and probably Santana too.

To be frank, I think people are just looking for a reason to discount him. Notice no one is bringing up his train wreck defense now? His UZR/150 is 5.8 this year which while a small sample would put him in line with what Brett Gardner did last year in LF.

 

[chibears55]

I don't agree, I don't think there's any change in how scouts perceive him now from how they did before. He's essentially a second year player and he's struggling. If you thought he had potential to be a top hitter in the game you still do. I do and I think the Cubs do. I'm sure other teams do too. However, at the deadline this year his value is lessened because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality mid season. In the offseason if they wanted to move him for pitching there would be multiple takers.

That what I'm thinking too..
They won't move him now but I'm sure they might consider it, depending the return in off season..

I think any move at deadline will consist of trying to use guys in system th as t not part of near future along with maybe a Baez Russell or Happ

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[brett05]

I don't agree, I don't think there's any change in how scouts perceive him now from how they did before. He's essentially a second year player and he's struggling. If you thought he had potential to be a top hitter in the game you still do. I do and I think the Cubs do. I'm sure other teams do too. However, at the deadline this year his value is lessened because of the "what have you done for me lately" mentality mid season. In the offseason if they wanted to move him for pitching there would be multiple takers.

Not for TOR controllable young guys there won't be. Not sure there ever was IMO.

Seriously, has there been a more over hyped player in the game today? He might figure it out. It's possible. But the price has dropped significantly on him.

Machado and Santana have better track records and provide a lot more than just a bat.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Not for TOR controllable young guys there won't be. Not sure there ever was IMO.

Seriously, has there been a more over hyped player in the game today? He might figure it out. It's possible. But the price has dropped significantly on him.

Machado and Santana have better track records and provide a lot more than just a bat.

The kid has 522 PA in MLB. If people valued him before they value him now. It's ridiculous to think that all of a sudden, in that short sample size, that a player who many considered would be a top 10 bat has all of a sudden fallen off the map. Those that believed that likely still don't believe it.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't really get why this is even being discussed. The cubs aren't trading Schwarber. People need to look at context. MLB teams are ahead of places like BA in terms of scouting. And the cubs were willing to deal Torres last year but not Schwarber. Ergo they think Schwarber is more talented than a current top 3 prospect on most people's lists. Maddon who's arguably a top 3 manager in the game thought enough of Schwarber to bat him lead off. The cubs as an organization thought enough of Schwarber to even give him the shot at playing in the WS having not hit since April.

Whatever you personally think Schwarber can do, you are underrating him. Seriously, compare him and Rizzo as lefty sluggers. In Rizzo's first 521 PAs in 2011-2012 he hit .245/.324/.402 with a 9.2% walk rate and a .157 ISO. He then followed that up with the pretty disappointing 2013 where he hit .233/.323/.419. It took him roughly 1200 PAs at the major league level before he broke out in 2014. Schwarber over 522 PAs has hit .212/.328/.439 with a 13.4% walk rate and a .227 ISO. Rizzo's BABIP over that first 521 PAs was .287 where as Schwarber's over 522 PAs is .248. Schwarber is probably going to strike out more long term than Rizzo and may not have as good an average but he's going to walk more and he has more power. And if you were to ask me which of the two base entirely on stats of their first 520ish PAs I'd take it would be Schwarber excluding all the heroics in the playoffs.