Trade deadline banter

[CSF77]

It would be interesting if those 2 teams deal. But the A's have a history of selling and don't care as long as they get the best return.

I don't know how I feel about Lester and Q in the same rotation. By far they would be the best starters. Joe would put a righty in between them. Going into next year they would need 2 righties that counter them. Kyle has not sold me as he one to this point.

Even if they did make a Q trade they could end up Lester, F/A, Q, Hendricks, Montgomery. But that puts 2 lefties back to back.

So in view of this if they deal for Q then Montgomery is a BP arm. So if they view Mike as a starter then they should make a minor deal and tray to get Hand from the Pads. That shores up the high leverage LH role. That would cost Candy or Catrini and a pitching prospect.

After that they would have to stabilize the rotation. Kyle hurt and John/Jake unpredictable. One would have to be cut.

 

[CSF77]

Although the Yankees are currently mired in a five-game losing streak, they’re still atop the AL East at 38-28. The likelihood is that the Bombers will end up as buyers before the trade deadline, then, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that they could pursue a left-handed reliever, a starter and a first baseman in the coming weeks. With regards to the rotation, the Yankees might make a big splash by acquiring White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana, which is “a real possibility” based on long-tenured general manager Brian Cashman’s trade history, according to Sherman. Quintana is affordable, meaning landing the 28-year-old wouldn’t hinder the Yankees’ goal of getting under the luxury tax next season, and surrendering multiple prospects for him would lessen the 40-man roster crunch the team is in danger of facing in the offseason.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly the way the Cubs are playing right now it makes little sense to go all in on a starter. Those 2 teams are going to the play offs regardless and are looking at improving their chances. The Cubs are looking for a life saver.

Totally diffrent situation.

So I'm thinking that they should let Montgomery start. When Kyle gets back then bump Butler into MR to stabilize that situation. And wait until the off season. If there is a minor deal like getting Hand for Candy/pitcher then go for it but if it becomes a bidding war stay away

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly the way the Cubs are playing right now it makes little sense to go all in on a starter.

Depends on the starter. I'd agree if we're talking an older guy but if you're going after a younger guy with some control what's the difference in buying now vs buying in the offseason? Ultimately if it's the right guy you have to buy when he's available.

 

[chibears55]

After today Cubs will either be .500 or 2 under..
They'll have 20 games left til break..

Looking at the schedule, I can't see them winning more then 10.

So, thinking that they'll head into break around.500 and looking the way they've been all year, I just don't see any major trades happening.

I think they'll hold onto their assets, decide on who they wanna hold onto from system and current team after the season over, and do all their major transactions in off season


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Depends on the starter. I'd agree if we're talking an older guy but if you're going after a younger guy with some control what's the difference in buying now vs buying in the offseason? Ultimately if it's the right guy you have to buy when he's available.

Depends if it becomes a bidding war. Cubs are not good enough to justify overpaying. If it was about the future then wait til F/A

 

[CSF77]

While plans could change if the Rangers fall out of the race, a Yu Darvish deadline trade seems pretty unlikely right now since the team is playing better. There are also longer-term considerations in play, as Texas wants to re-sign the star right-hander when Darvish hits free agency this winter and “the relationship between the Rangers and Darvish is deeper than most,” Rosenthal reports. There’s also the interesting wrinkle that Darvish’s presence could help the Rangers in their pursuit of Shohei Otani, as Otani idolizes Darvish.

 

[beckdawg]

Depends if it becomes a bidding war. Cubs are not good enough to justify overpaying. If it was about the future then wait til F/A

Do you honestly believe any pitcher worthy of going after wont involve a bidding war in december? Look at the cost of Sale. Look at the presumed cost of Archer/Q. Now sure if you're saying they shouldn't over pay for Yu Darvish then fine but like I said that's not really a long term move. It's a win this year move. I think you can make a solid case that acquiring a Gray/Archer/Q type starter may be cheaper now than in december because there are fewer teams that realistically know that are in competition and there are fewer teams with elite level prospects to deal.

Regardless, I think the cubs will be heavily interested in Gray who's the most likely to get dealt in my eyes. Q would be #2 but the cross town aspect makes it less likely. Tampa is only 4 games back and may not sell. Personally, I never loved Gray at the #1 pitcher price but I think some of the luster has come off because of the 5.69 ERA last year and a 4.44 ERA this year. If he cost more in that 1 top 100 type and 2 top 20 type prospect range I'd be well in on him. Something like Candelario or Clifton + Zagunis or Hannemann + say Chesny Young seems a bit low but with in range of realistic because Beane always prefers guys near the majors.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs will have payroll to work with. They lack impact prospects

 

[CSF77]

Regardless I'm looking at F/A vs trades this offseason. Much will depend on Darvish moving to another team. He is the top arm this off. After him it comes down to Tanaka or Cueto hitting the market.

Jake most likely try to resign regardless of what Boras says. His market is plain bad. I'm not sure if they do honestly.

But I see it as they are just looking for bridges vs dams to the pitching depth that they have upwelling

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs will have payroll to work with. They lack impact prospects

What the hell are you talking about? They have more prospects than can play offensively. And even if they don't touch players at the MLB level they have Jiminez who's a top 15 prospect. They have 3 pitchers who have #1/2 upside. And that doesn't even bring into the conversation they numerous young IFAs they signed in 2015. Aramis Ademan is a legit SS prospect. Isaac Paredes probably gets pushed to 3B or 2B but he's a legit bat. And there's several others who will shortly pop up into top 30 lists. Jonathan Sierra for example could easily be as good as Jiminez. He probably doesn't have Eloy's power potential but his overall game may be better. If Miguel Amaya hits at all he's going to be a top 100 prospect because defensively he's an elite level C.

Sure if they trade some of those players their talent is young but it's not like trading 3-4 players is going to crater their farm system. And more to the point, even if the cubs do have money which I think you're over stating given they have yet to lock up any of their young core, they still need to replace 2 pitchers possibly 3 depending how you feel about the #5 slot in the rotation.

Simply put, if the cubs like a pitcher in the trade market they are going to go after him whether you like it or not. They wont care if they are .500 at the all star break because they will feel they are a team that hasn't performed to its talent level. And as I've said seemingly countless times, the regular season record means nothing to this team. They will view it as having to get to the playoffs and then it's essentially a new game.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs have 1 top 25 talent. Cease and Candy are 75-100. DeLaRosa is not ranked. He maybe a 55 type but he is not in the top 100 and injury has prevented him of making a case.

Happ is on the MLB squad and I'm highly doubting that they deal him.

Now I agree that they would deal Eloy in the right deal. As much as you are pinging Gray, his production is not TOR. He is a 3 on a contender. So trading a blue chip like Eloy would not be wise. If they were going to toss their top chip it should be for Archer. He is a legit TOR with more control. And then Eloy becomes a center piece. At that position you could concider Cease added in because you are getting a Ace with control vs a 3 which you can get via internal options eventually.


That is how I feel about it honestly. Gray is something that they can produce internally. All you are doing is buying time. Archer is not unless Cease meets his potential. Outside of him they don't have a Blue chip starter.

So that is how I feel about the subject. You don't agree that is fine. I really do not over value the system. It is middle of the pack now. It is gearing to a system that is producing arms but you put it next to Atl you see how far behind it is. So depleting it more really makes little sense unless it is for something that is not available in other means.

 

[beckdawg]

Who was arguing trading Jiminez for Gray cuz it surely wasn't me? If you recall I essentially argued for one of clifton/candelario, one of Zagunis/Hanneman and someone like Young. Trading that way isn't "depleting the system." It's moving redundant parts that aren't useful on the MLB team but need major league playing time soon-ish.

Your argument was there isn't "impact talent" in the cubs system. If that's what you truly believe then you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the way minor league systems work with regard to rankings. In most cases, the "top 100 prospects" are the top 100 players near the majors with talent. But that doesn't mean people outside of it are untalented. I mean for **** sake I was literally telling people 13 or 14 months ago about how good Torres was going to be despite him not being in the top 100. And some people would essentially shrug because he wasn't rated. Within that time he jumped to top 50 at midseason and by january he was top 5. Aramis Ademan very well could do the same if he hits well in A-. I doubt he'll end up in the top 5 but he could easily be in consideration for the top 100 prospects in december. Likewise, Isaac Paredes is hitting .262/.341/.389 in south bend as an 18 year old. Torres prior to being traded hit .293/.353/.386 as an 18 year old in A. And as mentioned they gave Jonathan Sierra $2.5 mil in the 2015 IFA class. He hit .264/.384/.341 in the DSL last year. They gave Yonathan Perlaza $1.3 mil and he hit .256/.311/.386 as a 17 year old. They gave Miguel Amaya $1.25 mil and he may be the best defensive catcher in the minors. They gave Kwang-Min Kwon $1.2 mil he hit .267/.353/.333 in mesa last year. And that's to say nothing of guys like DJ Wilson and Eddy Martinez who are already among the top 20 or so.

There is a ton of talent in the cubs minor leagues. Of course the cubs don't have multiple top 50 prospects right now. They have graduated Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Bryant, Russell, Baez, and Contreras over the past 2-3 years. That's literally the better part of a starting line up for most teams and the cubs past 4 #1 picks prior to 2017. That's not even mentioning Soler who they dealt away. The key take away here isn't that you should "over value" the cubs system. It's that they understand how to develop hitting. They really haven't missed in so far as they got basically every high profile bat they've gone after to the majors.

There are no sure things in terms of pitching prospects. That goes for every team not just the cubs. And while the cubs have better depth in terms of minor league arms than impact, it's not as though they don't have guys with talent. Even outside of the usual cast of names, a guy like Bryan Hudson 2 years from now very well could be a top 50 prospect. Tall lefties often take longer to come along and at 6'8 he's quite projectable with a curve that was already quite good. Guy has a 62.6% ground ball rate this year. The K's aren't there yet and the walk rate because of said mechanical issues is higher than you would like but he can already reach 94 with sink on his fastball. That could easily be 96-97 in 2 years and if he refines his delivery a bit the walk rate may come down. Like wise, Bailey Clark's stuff isn't that much worse than Little. Only real difference is a half grade better fastball for Little.

Long story short, outside of the top 5 or so minor league systems I'll take the depth the cubs have over most.

 

[brett05]

He's potentially a way better player than Adam Dunn but clearly I'm not going to change your mind.

I agree. And when Adam Dunn was his age he had more potential to be more than what he turned out to be which for Adam is still a very solid ballplayer.

But we can agree to disagree.

 

[CSF77]

Who was arguing trading Jiminez for Gray cuz it surely wasn't me? If you recall I essentially argued for one of clifton/candelario, one of Zagunis/Hanneman and someone like Young. Trading that way isn't "depleting the system." It's moving redundant parts that aren't useful on the MLB team but need major league playing time soon-ish.

Your argument was there isn't "impact talent" in the cubs system. If that's what you truly believe then you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the way minor league systems work with regard to rankings. In most cases, the "top 100 prospects" are the top 100 players near the majors with talent. But that doesn't mean people outside of it are untalented. I mean for **** sake I was literally telling people 13 or 14 months ago about how good Torres was going to be despite him not being in the top 100. And some people would essentially shrug because he wasn't rated. Within that time he jumped to top 50 at midseason and by january he was top 5. Aramis Ademan very well could do the same if he hits well in A-. I doubt he'll end up in the top 5 but he could easily be in consideration for the top 100 prospects in december. Likewise, Isaac Paredes is hitting .262/.341/.389 in south bend as an 18 year old. Torres prior to being traded hit .293/.353/.386 as an 18 year old in A. And as mentioned they gave Jonathan Sierra $2.5 mil in the 2015 IFA class. He hit .264/.384/.341 in the DSL last year. They gave Yonathan Perlaza $1.3 mil and he hit .256/.311/.386 as a 17 year old. They gave Miguel Amaya $1.25 mil and he may be the best defensive catcher in the minors. They gave Kwang-Min Kwon $1.2 mil he hit .267/.353/.333 in mesa last year. And that's to say nothing of guys like DJ Wilson and Eddy Martinez who are already among the top 20 or so.

There is a ton of talent in the cubs minor leagues. Of course the cubs don't have multiple top 50 prospects right now. They have graduated Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Bryant, Russell, Baez, and Contreras over the past 2-3 years. That's literally the better part of a starting line up for most teams and the cubs past 4 #1 picks prior to 2017. That's not even mentioning Soler who they dealt away. The key take away here isn't that you should "over value" the cubs system. It's that they understand how to develop hitting. They really haven't missed in so far as they got basically every high profile bat they've gone after to the majors.

There are no sure things in terms of pitching prospects. That goes for every team not just the cubs. And while the cubs have better depth in terms of minor league arms than impact, it's not as though they don't have guys with talent. Even outside of the usual cast of names, a guy like Bryan Hudson 2 years from now very well could be a top 50 prospect. Tall lefties often take longer to come along and at 6'8 he's quite projectable with a curve that was already quite good. Guy has a 62.6% ground ball rate this year. The K's aren't there yet and the walk rate because of said mechanical issues is higher than you would like but he can already reach 94 with sink on his fastball. That could easily be 96-97 in 2 years and if he refines his delivery a bit the walk rate may come down. Like wise, Bailey Clark's stuff isn't that much worse than Little. Only real difference is a half grade better fastball for Little.

Long story short, outside of the top 5 or so minor league systems I'll take the depth the cubs have over most.

To get Gray the center piece would have to be either Candy or Cease. Candy lacks power for a corner IF. Cease is the only top 100 arm.
My opinion is the Cubs need to rebuild the system right now. The only expendable is Candy and he doesn't carry the weight needed to get a quality return

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So Jeff Passan thinks the Cubs target is Archer. He says the Cubs and Rays have spoken about him many times but that they would have to lead the deal with Eloy Jimenez. If the rumors are true and that the Cubs pitcher teams covet is Adbert Alzolay then you'd figure something like Eloy, Candelario and Azolay with another lower level player they like thrown in. I'd do that deal yesterday even though the Rays would be getting a nice haul, 4 1/2 years of Archer with his salary never hitting $9 mil would be more than worth it.

 

[beckdawg]

So Jeff Passan thinks the Cubs target is Archer. He says the Cubs and Rays have spoken about him many times but that they would have to lead the deal with Eloy Jimenez. If the rumors are true and that the Cubs pitcher teams covet is Adbert Alzolay then you'd figure something like Eloy, Candelario and Azolay with another lower level player they like thrown in. I'd do that deal yesterday even though the Rays would be getting a nice haul, 4 1/2 years of Archer with his salary never hitting $9 mil would be more than worth it.

Problem I see is Tampa isn't that far out. They may not be willing to sell. However, if they are I'd pretty much be willing to pay most any price realistically so long as it didn't touch Cease, De La Cruz and Albertos.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

On the larger trade front Gleyber Torres is out for the season with a torn UCL. That puts the Yankees squarely in the market for someone to play 3B which Torres was slated to ma as early as next week.

 

[CSF77]

Problem I see is Tampa isn't that far out. They may not be willing to sell. However, if they are I'd pretty much be willing to pay most any price realistically so long as it didn't touch Cease, De La Cruz and Albertos.

It kinda depends on what Tampa has to back fill Archer with at the major league level. Idk myself.

I e thought that Archer is worth 1 top 25 1 75-100 and 2 non ranked but in a systems top 30.

So saying Eloy is the top 25 guy and Alozay is 1 of the non ranked. That leaves Candy as the 75-100 and another ranked player. That would really depend on their needs. If they have a need for a back fill they could have Butler. Hendricks is debatable. Depends if last year was a fluke or his norm.

 

[beckdawg]

Heyman on trade deadline...

5. Chicago Cubs
They have identified the rotation as the most obvious spot for improvement, it appears. The pitching has actually been better than the hitting, but their everyday team seems pretty well set, maybe even for years to come. They’ve had great luck making trades for starters (see Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks) but with no surefire fifth starter, John Lackey struggling and Hendricks having an injury concern, this would be the easiest way to go. One rival says Quintana probably makes the most sense since he has three more years to go and Lackey and Arrieta are free agents, but it’s had to see the South Siders and North Siders working that one out. Gerrit Cole also seems to love Chicago, should the Pirates consider selling.