Trade deadline banter

[brett05]

I think we are all on the same page. a Baez, Russell while not specs are what the Cubs would need to be talking about to get young TOR if there is competition since they aren't competitive with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros who would also be looking. The Cubs best bet is to go after someone that no one is really pursuing hard.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think we are all on the same page. a Baez, Russell while not specs are what the Cubs would need to be talking about to get young TOR if there is competition since they aren't competitive with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros who would also be looking. The Cubs best bet is to go after someone that no one is really pursuing hard.

Agreed. If Boston is willing to give up Devers, Houston is willing to give up Kyle Tucker and New York is willing to trade Clint Frazier for Gray then it probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs as you'd be talking Jimenez or, as you say, someone like Baez or Russell and that's not happening.

 

[CSF77]

Theo has already said they are not trading core roster players

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Theo has already said they are not trading core roster players

No question. I meant more who they would ask for.

 

[CSF77]

No question. I meant more who they would ask for.

Happ and Baez

 

[CSF77]

Agreed. If Boston is willing to give up Devers, Houston is willing to give up Kyle Tucker and New York is willing to trade Clint Frazier for Gray then it probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs as you'd be talking Jimenez or, as you say, someone like Baez or Russell and that's not happening.

The most I would give up for Gray is De La Cruz (2nd best arm), Caratini (best catcher) the 3rd player is debatable. De La Cruz is a sell low right now due to injury. He could be top 100 right now and would make this a 2 player return. But sense that potential is still there the 3rd player has to be low impact like Rob Z or Pena.

If his market is out pricing that you have to call on Q. No sense over paying on a #3.

 

[chibears55]

Besides being 27 and controlled for 2 years, I just don't see the fascination of wanting sonny gray..

I don't see him being anymore then a 4 in a rotation..
Or does people think if he gets out of Oakland he'll be more of what he was in 2014 and 2015 cause he been garbage the last 2 yrs..

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[TC in Mississippi]

Besides being 27 and controlled for 2 years, I just don't see the fascination of wanting sonny gray..

I don't see him being anymore then a 4 in a rotation..
Or does people think if he gets out of Oakland he'll be more of what he was in 2014 and 2015 cause he been garbage the last 2 yrs..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Gray is actually having a good season 9.05/K9, 3.61 FIP, 3.42 xFIP and you have to figure that those numbers would be half a run better in the NL. His BB/9 is higher than you'd like but that can improve.

 

[CSF77]

Gray is actually having a good season 9.05/K9, 3.61 FIP, 3.42 xFIP and you have to figure that those numbers would be half a run better in the NL. His BB/9 is higher than you'd like but that can improve.

He is a 3. Which means he is equal to Shark. I wouldn't give up a top end prospect for shark. The difference is selling when their values are inflated. That is it. End of the day they are both league #3 pitchers. Which is not worth a top 10 ranked prospect. As Eloy is #8. If NYY wants to give up the #18 prospect for a MOR let them.

 

[CSF77]

Anyways, I'm starting to believe that they are show casing right now. Earlier Zag (unranked) now Jeimer Candelario (ranked 83) Those are the guys that they are trying to use for MLB ready hitters. Then they most likely will toss in a arm or 2. It wouldn't shock me if they were planning those 2 with Butler as guys that can fill a roster now then depending on the player quality they are aiming the 4th player having the highest impact. TB wants Adbert Alzolay. Sox would want Eloy etc. But that is what I'm sensing right now.

 

[chibears55]

Anyways, I'm starting to believe that they are show casing right now. Earlier Zag (unranked) now Jeimer Candelario (ranked 83) Those are the guys that they are trying to use for MLB ready hitters. Then they most likely will toss in a arm or 2. It wouldn't shock me if they were planning those 2 with Butler as guys that can fill a roster now then depending on the player quality they are aiming the 4th player having the highest impact. TB wants Adbert Alzolay. Sox would want Eloy etc. But that is what I'm sensing right now.

If teams are looking at Zagunis and Candelario for trades, their not liking the results their seeing with bats at MLB level..

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[CSF77]

If teams are looking at Zagunis and Candelario for trades, their not liking the results their seeing with bats at MLB level..

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They would be looking at it from not a results perspective but a quality AB and from a defensive perspective. Zag has taken walks. So he brings that to the table. He needs to make contact.
he is close but all said and done he is roster filler.

I'm pretty sure if Candy gets constant play that he would adapt. He is not like Happ who has that plus power that kept him up during his struggles. But he has a good eye and the ability to hit near .300 when playing equal competition. All he needs it AB's and time.

 

[beckdawg]

Agreed. If Boston is willing to give up Devers, Houston is willing to give up Kyle Tucker and New York is willing to trade Clint Frazier for Gray then it probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs as you'd be talking Jimenez or, as you say, someone like Baez or Russell and that's not happening.

I don't see any way Boston gives up Devers and NY gives up Frazier. Boston has a glaring hole at 3B already with Sandoval being an albatross. NY could more feasibly give up Frazier but I honestly don't think Gray makes that much difference to them. Pineda has better underlying k/bb numbers though he's always had a HR problem. Then there's Tanaka. Gray would be kicking one of those two out and I'm not sure there's enough there to justify that trade. Houston is interesting. Their the most dominant team in baseball right now and pitching is a weakness. But then you're talking trading Gray in division which can happen but it's not common.

I've said this before but people are going to be wrong on the type of pieces Beane goes for. He almost never goes for the highest value upside guy. Instead he turns assets into stater quality near ready prospects who don't always have a ton of upside. The cubs upper minor hitting is robust with these guys. I mean if you seriously look at the trade he's made recently you're talking about Josh Donaldson for Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Sean Nolin. Donaldson was an MVP candidate and while Barreto is a half decent prospect now(#43 in mlb.com) he's not a top 10 prospect and I don't even think at the time he was top 100 though I may be wrong. The other 3 were all parts he could use today. When Beane sold Shark to the white sox with Michael Ynoa he got Rangel Ravelo (minors), Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley and Marcus Semien. Semien was back end top 100 who was basically MLB ready and the other parts were either filler or near ready. He traded Reddick and Hill last year for Grant Holmes (minors), Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas. Montas and Cotton were in AAA. Holmes was the only developing prospect.

It may not make a ton of sense from a traditional trade viewpoint but Beane often trades stars to fill out his team. So, he probably doesn't want a top 20 prospect who's in A or A+. He'd rather several guys who are say 75-100 and in AAA or ready for the majors.

 

[beckdawg]

Besides being 27 and controlled for 2 years, I just don't see the fascination of wanting sonny gray..

I don't see him being anymore then a 4 in a rotation..
Or does people think if he gets out of Oakland he'll be more of what he was in 2014 and 2015 cause he been garbage the last 2 yrs..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

He's probably more a 3 right now than a 4 but when going well he can pitch effectively as a #2. To me he's a bit of Jon Lester who I've never really felt was the "ace" of a staff. Just a guy who's consistently good. I didn't like the idea of Gray when he was priced similar to Sale in people's minds but I think the market has come back to reality on him.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see any way Boston gives up Devers and NY gives up Frazier. Boston has a glaring hole at 3B already with Sandoval being an albatross. NY could more feasibly give up Frazier but I honestly don't think Gray makes that much difference to them. Pineda has better underlying k/bb numbers though he's always had a HR problem. Then there's Tanaka. Gray would be kicking one of those two out and I'm not sure there's enough there to justify that trade. Houston is interesting. Their the most dominant team in baseball right now and pitching is a weakness. But then you're talking trading Gray in division which can happen but it's not common.

I've said this before but people are going to be wrong on the type of pieces Beane goes for. He almost never goes for the highest value upside guy. Instead he turns assets into stater quality near ready prospects who don't always have a ton of upside. The cubs upper minor hitting is robust with these guys. I mean if you seriously look at the trade he's made recently you're talking about Josh Donaldson for Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Sean Nolin. Donaldson was an MVP candidate and while Barreto is a half decent prospect now(#43 in mlb.com) he's not a top 10 prospect and I don't even think at the time he was top 100 though I may be wrong. The other 3 were all parts he could use today. When Beane sold Shark to the white sox with Michael Ynoa he got Rangel Ravelo (minors), Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley and Marcus Semien. Semien was back end top 100 who was basically MLB ready and the other parts were either filler or near ready. He traded Reddick and Hill last year for Grant Holmes (minors), Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas. Montas and Cotton were in AAA. Holmes was the only developing prospect.

It may not make a ton of sense from a traditional trade viewpoint but Beane often trades stars to fill out his team. So, he probably doesn't want a top 20 prospect who's in A or A+. He'd rather several guys who are say 75-100 and in AAA or ready for the majors.

I can kinda see that. He got Donaldson as the lower level toss in from the Cubs in 2008. The front line was roster filler low upside players. That said there would have to be a gem to develop with the low floor players.

Say 4 guys. Butler/Candy/Zag's. Then as a low level gem: Jose Albertos. He has plenty of polishing to do but has a pretty high ceiling. Add to it he is so far away the Cubs probably wont miss him. It will be a after thought like Archer and Donaldson were.

 

[beckdawg]

I can kinda see that. He got Donaldson as the lower level toss in from the Cubs in 2008. The front line was roster filler low upside players. That said there would have to be a gem to develop with the low floor players.

Say 4 guys. Butler/Candy/Zag's. Then as a low level gem: Jose Albertos. He has plenty of polishing to do but has a pretty high ceiling. Add to it he is so far away the Cubs probably wont miss him. It will be a after thought like Archer and Donaldson were.

I don't think they are going to trade Albertos nor do I think that's who Beane would target. Here's what I'm thinking...

#1 2018 CF for Oakland - Right now Rajai Davis is signed to a one year deal. He's also hitting .216/.270/.327. Their best prospect who can play CF is Jaycob Brugman who is their #21 prospect with below average hit and below average power and he's an average fielder. Jacob Hannemann is a plus defender/runner hitting .303/.333/.382 in AAA. On a playoff team he's a decent LH bat off the bench but given Oakland's payroll constraints and given their OF is massive, Hannemann is a pretty good secondary piece.

#2 2018 3B for Oakland - They recently called up one of their better prospects in Chapman. They also have Yonder Alonzo at 1B who I imagine they try to re-sign. But they do have a DH slot so I think Candelario makes some sense for them given they have Ryon Healy as their every day DH right now hitting .273/.303/.509. So, Candelario sorta kills two birds for them given he can protect against Chapman not working out and he could potentially DH.

#3 2B depth - Jed Lowrie is having a solid year(.283/.355/.476). He's 33 and has a $6 mil team option they almost assuredly they will pick up. Long term you may be looking at Semien/Barreto as your MI. They've played Chad Pinder(.234/.289/.490) and Adam Rosales(.235/.268/.355) so their not very deep there. Chesny Young seems like a good secondary piece with Hannemann.

#4 Long term starter depth - If you're trading Gray you probably want to get something back as a starter. For me Clifton makes sense here. He's got mid rotation upside and is what a year maybe less away? He's probably higher value than Tseng but given how well Tseng has pitched I think the cubs can afford to let Clifton go as he'd likely be a #4/5 type guy on the cubs. Tseng looks like he will be able to fill that same sort of role Hendricks did to start his career.

My view is Young, Hannemann and Candelario can fill 3 2018 roster spots for Oakland for pennies. Clifton would give them some near ready long term starter upside. I think you could also discuss maybe one more bigger name like say Adbert Alzolay if you want to get a big crazy but that's how I see this sorta trade playing out. The cubs could make that trade and it really doesn't hurt them that much. Oakland gets parts they can use in 2018 that can actually hit pretty well. They probably wont be stars or anything but it's not hard to envision someone like Candelario getting every day playing time, hitting, and turning into a very interesting trade piece for Oakland 2-3 years down the line when he's expensive.

As I said I think some could rightly argue that isn't much upside for Oakland but as I outlined before, Oakland rarely goes for max upside.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think they are going to trade Albertos nor do I think that's who Beane would target. Here's what I'm thinking...

#1 2018 CF for Oakland - Right now Rajai Davis is signed to a one year deal. He's also hitting .216/.270/.327. Their best prospect who can play CF is Jaycob Brugman who is their #21 prospect with below average hit and below average power and he's an average fielder. Jacob Hannemann is a plus defender/runner hitting .303/.333/.382 in AAA. On a playoff team he's a decent LH bat off the bench but given Oakland's payroll constraints and given their OF is massive, Hannemann is a pretty good secondary piece.

#2 2018 3B for Oakland - They recently called up one of their better prospects in Chapman. They also have Yonder Alonzo at 1B who I imagine they try to re-sign. But they do have a DH slot so I think Candelario makes some sense for them given they have Ryon Healy as their every day DH right now hitting .273/.303/.509. So, Candelario sorta kills two birds for them given he can protect against Chapman not working out and he could potentially DH.

#3 2B depth - Jed Lowrie is having a solid year(.283/.355/.476). He's 33 and has a $6 mil team option they almost assuredly they will pick up. Long term you may be looking at Semien/Barreto as your MI. They've played Chad Pinder(.234/.289/.490) and Adam Rosales(.235/.268/.355) so their not very deep there. Chesny Young seems like a good secondary piece with Hannemann.

#4 Long term starter depth - If you're trading Gray you probably want to get something back as a starter. For me Clifton makes sense here. He's got mid rotation upside and is what a year maybe less away? He's probably higher value than Tseng but given how well Tseng has pitched I think the cubs can afford to let Clifton go as he'd likely be a #4/5 type guy on the cubs. Tseng looks like he will be able to fill that same sort of role Hendricks did to start his career.

My view is Young, Hannemann and Candelario can fill 3 2018 roster spots for Oakland for pennies. Clifton would give them some near ready long term starter upside. I think you could also discuss maybe one more bigger name like say Adbert Alzolay if you want to get a big crazy but that's how I see this sorta trade playing out. The cubs could make that trade and it really doesn't hurt them that much. Oakland gets parts they can use in 2018 that can actually hit pretty well. They probably wont be stars or anything but it's not hard to envision someone like Candelario getting every day playing time, hitting, and turning into a very interesting trade piece for Oakland 2-3 years down the line when he's expensive.

As I said I think some could rightly argue that isn't much upside for Oakland but as I outlined before, Oakland rarely goes for max upside.

I think we are on the same page honestly. I was thinking 4 guys but 1 lower level higher impact. A guy that they would want would be Alzolay but I doubt highly they are giving away any high impact starters at this point.

Clifton honestly is low ceiling. I believe his floor is high as he will end up a starter but he will have about the same impact that Butler is giving right now. So as far as a pitching return he is kinda over rated.

But I'll agree with Candy and Hanneman. Young's value will be more related to him being able to play the OF and 2B. He really is not a SS.

Honestly if they did the guys you said it would be fine. All are not impact players. Clifton only matter because he is the closest. As far as the most interesting starters this year it would be Alzlay and Tseng with Rucker becoming a intriguing TOR option. Size wise all are under whelming. Rucker is a strait armed 3/4 pitching style. I've seen 1 video of him so far and I need to see more to figure out why hitters are stumped by him. Alzolay has a plus curve and a fastball that sits in the mid 90's. Avg change up to change speeds. He has talent. Rucker I still haven't seen enough info on honestly other than he kinda slings the ball from behind his body. It may be a batters perspective thing and they are not reading the pitch off the mound. If that is the case then more experienced hitters will neutralize that. If it is just raw stuff then that is another story. He was a 11th round pick so him having TOR ability is kinda less likely.

 

[beckdawg]

Given where Rucker was drafted it almost has to be a deception thing. Generally unless you're a HS player with money concerns you don't last to the 11th round with top tier stuff. But I'd also wager his command is pretty great because he just doesn't walk guys. He could end up being a prospect kind of like Cliff Lee was. I don't know enough about Rucker to compare him stuff wise but Lee wasn't a highly regarded prospect. His control made him more effective in the majors.

 

[brett05]

The issue is Gray will have heavy suitors unlike previous trades from Oakland. So Beane will be able to pull in more.

 

[beckdawg]

The issue is Gray will have heavy suitors unlike previous trades from Oakland. So Beane will be able to pull in more.

Heavier suitors than an MVP candidate Josh Donaldson in the offseason? Doubtful.