Trade deadline banter

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't really get why this is even being discussed. The cubs aren't trading Schwarber. People need to look at context. MLB teams are ahead of places like BA in terms of scouting. And the cubs were willing to deal Torres last year but not Schwarber. Ergo they think Schwarber is more talented than a current top 3 prospect on most people's lists. Maddon who's arguably a top 3 manager in the game thought enough of Schwarber to bat him lead off. The cubs as an organization thought enough of Schwarber to even give him the shot at playing in the WS having not hit since April.

Whatever you personally think Schwarber can do, you are underrating him. Seriously, compare him and Rizzo as lefty sluggers. In Rizzo's first 521 PAs in 2011-2012 he hit .245/.324/.402 with a 9.2% walk rate and a .157 ISO. He then followed that up with the pretty disappointing 2013 where he hit .233/.323/.419. It took him roughly 1200 PAs at the major league level before he broke out in 2014. Schwarber over 522 PAs has hit .212/.328/.439 with a 13.4% walk rate and a .227 ISO. Rizzo's BABIP over that first 521 PAs was .287 where as Schwarber's over 522 PAs is .248. Schwarber is probably going to strike out more long term than Rizzo and may not have as good an average but he's going to walk more and he has more power. And if you were to ask me which of the two base entirely on stats of their first 520ish PAs I'd take it would be Schwarber excluding all the heroics in the playoffs.

Yep, you nailed it. No they aren't going to trade him and one of the best hitting prospects in the game has not all of a sudden become not a top hitting prospect after 522 PA. It's just silly.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Matt Harvey has a stress injury to his shoulder and is out several weeks. I would that takes him out of deadline discussions. Meanwhile Sonny Gray pitches against the Yankees tonight. Lots of teams will be watching that one.

 

[CSF77]

Harvey would have been a buy low option anyways

 

[CSF77]

I don't doubt Schwarber's value but right now he is struggling and it would be a faith deal on team B and a lack of faith from the Cubs to deal him.

Eloy is a hot ticket player that was the top international signing. Them trading him is not far fetched at all. If anything gaining Q would weigh more to the future of this team. This team is really young and in control. What they have is hitting. What they don't have is pitching. So in view of this it is far easier to give up a bat vs a arm at this point.

 

[chibears55]

I don't really get why this is even being discussed. The cubs aren't trading Schwarber. People need to look at context. MLB teams are ahead of places like BA in terms of scouting. And the cubs were willing to deal Torres last year but not Schwarber. Ergo they think Schwarber is more talented than a current top 3 prospect on most people's lists. Maddon who's arguably a top 3 manager in the game thought enough of Schwarber to bat him lead off. The cubs as an organization thought enough of Schwarber to even give him the shot at playing in the WS having not hit since April.

Whatever you personally think Schwarber can do, you are underrating him. Seriously, compare him and Rizzo as lefty sluggers. In Rizzo's first 521 PAs in 2011-2012 he hit .245/.324/.402 with a 9.2% walk rate and a .157 ISO. He then followed that up with the pretty disappointing 2013 where he hit .233/.323/.419. It took him roughly 1200 PAs at the major league level before he broke out in 2014. Schwarber over 522 PAs has hit .212/.328/.439 with a 13.4% walk rate and a .227 ISO. Rizzo's BABIP over that first 521 PAs was .287 where as Schwarber's over 522 PAs is .248. Schwarber is probably going to strike out more long term than Rizzo and may not have as good an average but he's going to walk more and he has more power. And if you were to ask me which of the two base entirely on stats of their first 520ish PAs I'd take it would be Schwarber excluding all the heroics in the playoffs.

I get what your saying but the difference is, Rizzo had a chance to figure it out while the team was bad.
This team is supposed to be contending..

Plus

Schwarber just doesn't seem like he wants to adjust anything with his swings.. it basically see ball smash ball and hope it finds a hole in the shift or goes over the fench..
Right now that approach is only working 20% of the time..


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[beckdawg]

I get what your saying but the difference is, Rizzo had a chance to figure it out while the team was bad.
This team is supposed to be contending..

Plus

Schwarber just doesn't seem like he wants to adjust anything with his swings.. it basically see ball smash ball and hope it finds a hole in the shift or goes over the fench..
Right now that approach is only working 20% of the time..


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That's not how baseball works. You don't only figure things out when you're bad. The cubs are perhaps a bit odd in that they have so many young players all together at once which is unfortunate in Schwarber's case but inevitably good teams are going to play young players if they hope to contend long term. That's just how it's going to have to happen. As for Schwarber not adjusting his swing, I don't truly believe there is a hole in his swing. I've read some opine that what's wrong with him is since he was put in the lead off spot and since lead off hitters are suppose to see pitches that caused a thought process which inevitably lead to him being less aggressive in swinging. The fact of the matter is almost every hitter in the league will be bad in 0-2/1-2 counts. And in even counts he's hitting .125/.125/.328 while he is hitting .192/.213/.329 in counts the pitcher is ahead. On the contrary when he's ahead he's hitting .211/.467/.521.

I think you can make the case if he were more aggressive on the first pitch teams would be leery about pitching him in the zone and thus he might find it easier to get ahead. I think it's fairly obvious teams still fear his power. And he's killing it with any advantage. First pitch he's hitting .313/.313/1.063, 1-0 he's hitting .286/.286/1.143 and 2-0 he's hitting .308/.308/.692. Hell even 0-1 he's hitting .333/.385/.417. All that tells me is that pitchers are out thinking him later in counts.

 

[TL1961]

The cubs want what every team wants, a young, controlled, top of the rotation starter. Everyone thinks Candelario is a throw in piece, Jiminez probably the top name not on the roster now. I dont know how long the cubs will hold out on bringing the DH to the NL but with this roster Schwarber needs to catch.

Lackey needs some undisclosed injury to give him three weeks off, too bad they cant figure out what is wrong with Kyles hand. Hopefully they keep stretching Montgomery and Anderson is no longer an option.

The yankees look to make the playoffs again, so I dont think they will be moving any pitchers unless CC has a definite return date. They will not risk that resign chapman after fleecing the cubs, but Torres might find a new home again.

Tjis is utterly ridiculous.

Schwarber can not catch. Ever. Never. He kills you as a catcher if he hits .900.

Putting a horrible defender at a prime defensive position in order to justify a poor offenive showing is ridiculous.

 

[brett05]

Yep, you nailed it. No they aren't going to trade him and one of the best hitting prospects in the game has not all of a sudden become not a top hitting prospect after 522 PA. It's just silly.

I agree it is silly. The Cubs would never get what they value Kyle at which from all indications is a severe overvalue. I think we all agree on this.

 

[beckdawg]

I agree it is silly. The Cubs would never get what they value Kyle at which from all indications is a severe overvalue. I think we all agree on this.

I'm not sure I'd say they severely overvalue him. Are they on the high end of the scouting spectrum? Probably but then why wouldn't they be? They drafted him. And to be fair to the cubs front office if you had to redo the 2014 draft right now Schwarber probably would be much higher on people's board. At the end of the day there's relatively few guys year to year who even have a shot at hitting 35+ HRs. People are willing to tolerate guys like Joey Gallo who have nearly a 40% k rate for the chance at that. And the fact is, you don't really see those guys get moved in trades often. The Sox gave up Moncada for Sale but Moncada doesn't have that kind of power. Of top 100 prospects right now there are 0 players with 65+ grade power though I'd argue mlb.com probably has Eloy low at 60. Of 60 grade power types you're talking about Eloy, Rafael Devers, Lewis Brinson, Clint Frazier, Kyle Lewis, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tyler O'Neill, Bobby Bradley, Matt Chapman, and Casey Gillaspie. So, 10 batters in the top 100 look to have 25ish HR power. I think you can make a solid argument that Schwarber in his prime will have 70 grade power. I mean the 35ish HR power he's had in his first roughly year of playing time is already a 65 grade so seeing him go up to 40ish a season wouldn't really surprise me.

This is what people need to understand when talking about Schwarber. His kind of power is extremely rare these days. I'm not going to get in to the specifics of "what he's worth" because I think it's entirely fruitless. But suffice to say the kind of power he has is just as rare as a true ace type pitcher. And when you combine that with what we can already see is one of the best batting eyes in baseball he becomes a very intriguing talent. It's this reason why the cubs would consider giving up Torres before Schwarber. If you go back and look I was one of Torres' biggest supporters even prior to that trade but the fact remains that it's easier to find something like what he may be than it is to find something like Schwarber. Torres has a 65 grade hit and a 55 grade power. You may struggle to find 65 grade hit prospects but 60/55 type middle infield prospects aren't that rare. Happ for instance is 60/50 and I'd argue given the power we've seen that power grade should be a 55.

And honestly I think what people are really missing when discussing Schwarber is just the person. It often gets lost in stats and talk about potential but these are people. Some have drive and some don't. Some are assholes and some are loved. In Schwarber's case everything I've heard about him suggests he's a pretty top notch guy in terms of putting in the work. It would be easy for a prospect where he was last year or prior to just say well C is in my past. But he came out and said he wants to prove people wrong. It would have been easy for someone who tore their ACL to mope around last year and throw in the towel. He made it back. His teammates seem to love him. It's stuff like this you can't numerically qualify but I guarantee you most winning teams in any sport will be made up of guys like this.

 

[brett05]

I have no issues with Kyle as a player on and off the field from the intangibles. Those aren't highly traceable skills unfortunately.

His power is rare. I agree. But being rare is not enough to the value of a player or anything really.

Historically the Cubs have overvalued their players, I posted that here before and it doesn't initially appear that things have changed in the past 24 months.

My comparison from day one has been Adam Dunn. Prior to the White Sox, that would be a great career if Kyle got there.

All that said, I stand by my statement that he does not bring in a young TOR.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I have no issues with Kyle as a player on and off the field from the intangibles. Those aren't highly traceable skills unfortunately.

His power is rare. I agree. But being rare is not enough to the value of a player or anything really.

Historically the Cubs have overvalued their players, I posted that here before and it doesn't initially appear that things have changed in the past 24 months.

My comparison from day one has been Adam Dunn. Prior to the White Sox, that would be a great career if Kyle got there.

All that said, I stand by my statement that he does not bring in a young TOR.

He's potentially a way better player than Adam Dunn but clearly I'm not going to change your mind.

 

[chibears55]

Here a question..
When they drafted Schwarber, wasnt their plan for him to be an eventual everyday catcher or even a backup with playing most games in Left ( 80 in LF 50 C) and not be an everyday LFer ?

If that the case then wouldn't it be fair to say that the Cubs value in him dropped somewhat because they weren't planning on him just being an everyday LFer after his knee injury and seeing how he really not that good of a catcher ?

Could be a reason why they might consider trading him

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[TC in Mississippi]

Here a question..
When they drafted Schwarber, wasnt their plan for him to be an eventual everyday catcher or even a backup with playing most games in Left ( 80 in LF 50 C) and not be an everyday LFer ?

If that the case then wouldn't it be fair to say that the Cubs value in him dropped somewhat because they weren't planning on him just being an everyday LFer after his knee injury and seeing how he really not that good of a catcher ?

Could be a reason why they might consider trading him

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To be honest I don't think that they ever really thought he would stick at catcher but because of Kyle's drive they were more than willing to let him try. Listen, will they trade him? I doubt it if for no other reason than they have said on many occasions that he has the ability to be the best hitter on the team. 522 PA has likely not changed their view on that.

 

[beckdawg]

Here a question..
When they drafted Schwarber, wasnt their plan for him to be an eventual everyday catcher or even a backup with playing most games in Left ( 80 in LF 50 C) and not be an everyday LFer ?

If that the case then wouldn't it be fair to say that the Cubs value in him dropped somewhat because they weren't planning on him just being an everyday LFer after his knee injury and seeing how he really not that good of a catcher ?

Could be a reason why they might consider trading him

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I doubt this highly. There wasn't even consensus he'd stick in LF. Also I think people are reading too much into the cubs if they think like that. The general MO for cubs drafting is pitchers who throw ground balls and preferably are college pitchers, guys who play up the middle(SS/CF) and guys with premium bats. I'd put guys like Bryant, Happ and Schwarber all in the premium bat category where as you have guys like DJ Wilson, Dewees, Almora and others as up the middle types. They haven't really drafted much in the way of SS but have spent a lot there in IFA.

Regardless, historically the cubs have taken a number of guys who have defensive questions but can hit. Schwarber and Happ are largely the two big ones but Mark Zagunis was a C when he was drafted. Ian Rice is another guy they drafted as a "catcher" but who may not stay there long term. They tend to prefer guys who can hit and just find places for them rather than pure defense. The one exception to that tends to be CF types.

 

[Raskolnikov]

He belongs in the AL and would be perfect on the White Sox as Shields personal catcher and usual DH.

 

[CSF77]

Read that the Sox want to draw interest from the Dodgers for Q. Can't see why the Dodgers would add another lefty.

Right now I would say the SP list is Q is going to get traded and is showing improvement at the right time. Archer and Grey have not been talked about yet. Cole also has not picked up any news.

we should start to see the talks picked up soon.

 

[beckdawg]

Random thought.... Rangers if they are out of things something to keep in mind is they signed Tyson Ross to a $6 mil deal with $3 mil incentives. The cubs were in on him as you may remember. Would be a sneaky cheap trade potentially.

 

[CSF77]

Idk. Fact that he jilted them makes me want to not go near him.

 

[beckdawg]

Idk. Fact that he jilted them makes me want to not go near him.

Well I look at it like this, it cost the rangers $6 mil plus the potential incentives. If you trade for him he's half that price.

 

[CSF77]

The AL West rival Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a trade that would involve Oakland right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The last-place A’s have been closely monitoring the Astros’ system, per Cafardo, during a period in which Houston’s four best starters (Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh) are on the disabled list. Gray, who would likely slot in third in a healthy Astros rotation, is only running a 4.44 ERA through 52 2/3 innings, but his secondary stats are encouraging and he’s under control via arbitration through 2019. As such, he’d warrant a strong return for the A’s.