Trade deadline banter

brett05

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I'm thinking that they will deal for Archer this winter.

With what? It has to come from the 25. There's nothing there to land an Archer by itself without being an overpay and there is no minors to make it worth while with a guy like a Baez. I think the Cubs are 2-3 years away from having pieces again to make such a move.
 

TC in Mississippi

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If Paredes is in the deal they better be getting more than Avila and Wilson



:(

You know I love Paredes but I'm not upset with this trade at all. Wilson helps that pen exponentially. Duensing has pitched well but now it bumps him down a notch and allows Wilson to take the high leverage situations. Plus Wilson helps next year. Avila probably saves Contreras from burning out. I've been concerned about that. As far as Candelario, I'm not losing any sleep. I think he's going to be a serviceable MLB player but not much more and other teams know that so his value was limited. I hate giving up Paredes but it's the cost of doing business and he's in A ball. This is a solid trade. If you're worried about next year, there's a lot of money coming off the books. They're going to have to slightly reconfigure to get a lead off hitter so someone is going to go, but they also can sign Darvish and Davis if they want to and be in good shape. Nothing Theo has done hurts the window.
 

bamainatlanta

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Tigers fans are not thrilled with this trade. They thought they could have got more, especially for Wilson
 

DJMoore_is_fat

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Great move by us. We're going for it again. I wouldn't want to face us in the playoffs.


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CSF77

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With what? It has to come from the 25. There's nothing there to land an Archer by itself without being an overpay and there is no minors to make it worth while with a guy like a Baez. I think the Cubs are 2-3 years away from having pieces again to make such a move.

Baez, Happ, Cartiani > Candy, Paredes. Alzolay is fringe 100 pitcher right now and getting better. Rays were targeting him as a Unk

Happ would be a blue chip. Alzolay the B rate prospect. Add in 2 extras.

I don't think he goes for the same price that Sale went for. Think what the Cubs paid for Q as a bar.
 

anotheridiot

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I just hope Contrares takes it the right way and Joe does not sit him too much. At least Caratini got to his his first home run before getting demoted. Avila should be looked at as more of a get rest for Rizzo option to even it out.
 

brett05

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Baez, Happ, Cartiani > Candy, Paredes. Alzolay is fringe 100 pitcher right now and getting better. Rays were targeting him as a Unk

Happ would be a blue chip. Alzolay the B rate prospect. Add in 2 extras.

I don't think he goes for the same price that Sale went for. Think what the Cubs paid for Q as a bar.

That would get it done I think. And I still think the Rays pass. Value of SP, even higher now.
 

chibears55

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Cubs bullpen in playoff..

Closer...
Davis

8th...
Edwards
Wilson
Rondon

6th 7th...
Uehara
Montgomery
Strop
Duensing

Starters go 6 or 7, cubs will have plenty of matchup options with 3 lefties in pen..

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chibears55

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Dylan Floro DFA to make room on 40..

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BaBaBlacksheep

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At this point Theo should be the most trusted man in sports for Cubs fans. I don't follow the minor league system enough to comment.... but if Theo likes it then so do I.
 

DanTown

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Don't really mind trading Candi because he was never going to be a high value regular here. The Parades part hurt because there was a fringy chance he's a future low cost replacement but now we're talking about the 2022 Cubs so plenty of opportunity to address that need.

I'm sad the Cubs did Torres and not Schwarber for Chapman instead of Miller but what can you do? I still think Schwarber has a Conforto/Judge like rebound next year.
 

chibears55

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At this point Theo should be the most trusted man in sports for Cubs fans. I don't follow the minor league system enough to comment.... but if Theo likes it then so do I.
They were able to trade for a TOR type starter signed thru 2020, a LH reliever who can set up or close signed thru 2018, and a veteran LH back up catcher without touching their young controllable 25 man roster...

That impressive

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BaBaBlacksheep

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They were able to trade for a TOR type starter signed thru 2020, a LH reliever who can set up or close signed thru 2018, and a veteran LH back up catcher without touching their young controllable 25 man roster...

That impressive

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Seems good to me!
 

beckdawg

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You know I love Paredes but I'm not upset with this trade at all. Wilson helps that pen exponentially. Duensing has pitched well but now it bumps him down a notch and allows Wilson to take the high leverage situations. Plus Wilson helps next year. Avila probably saves Contreras from burning out. I've been concerned about that. As far as Candelario, I'm not losing any sleep. I think he's going to be a serviceable MLB player but not much more and other teams know that so his value was limited. I hate giving up Paredes but it's the cost of doing business and he's in A ball. This is a solid trade. If you're worried about next year, there's a lot of money coming off the books. They're going to have to slightly reconfigure to get a lead off hitter so someone is going to go, but they also can sign Darvish and Davis if they want to and be in good shape. Nothing Theo has done hurts the window.

Well I have pretty much said my piece on it so I'm not going to ramble too much but if they aren't playing Avila at least twice a week he's a bad include in my eyes. In fact I'd argue he should be playing 50/50 with Contreras given what they paid to get him. My worry is more that he sits the bench hardly plays and then wilson gets maybe 20 innings the rest of the way and 5-10 innings in the playoffs. I don't care who you are if that's the amount of playing time those two get there's no way they are going to be impactful comparative to what they paid. It's just not enough innings to rack up value.

And while I get the argument people make that relief pitching is more valuable in the playoffs, I don't agree with the conclusion that you should overpay to get the best relievers for the playoffs. I think you'd have a hard time arguing that Chapman was more valuable than Montgomery in last years playoffs. I'm not entirely against acquiring help in the bullpen but Montgomery sort of proves my point that there's a limit to what you need to pay.
 

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Starting pitching is so talent expensive via trade that it just makes more sense to buy through free agency. My goodness, money should not be an issue for this team for a few years yet as the big guns Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, Russell and Baez big pay day is still down the road a bit. I also firmly believe they will hit and score more runs in 2018 than they are doing now. This trade buoys the bullpen this year and next plus opens the door for Montgomery to move into Lackey's spot in 2018, sets up a righty/lefty closing situation with Wilson & Edwards should they lose Davis in FA and allows for Contreras to get a breather from time to time down the stretch.

Ok, they gave up two promising prospects but the thing about that is that you never really know how these kids will turn out. If you look at the law of averages, the Cubs have had an awful lot of their highly rated prospects work out already. Far more than the norm. Somewhere along the line a few of these kids are gonna bomb out...not saying it's gonna be Candy and Paredes, just saying it very well could be.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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Well I have pretty much said my piece on it so I'm not going to ramble too much but if they aren't playing Avila at least twice a week he's a bad include in my eyes. In fact I'd argue he should be playing 50/50 with Contreras given what they paid to get him. My worry is more that he sits the bench hardly plays and then wilson gets maybe 20 innings the rest of the way and 5-10 innings in the playoffs. I don't care who you are if that's the amount of playing time those two get there's no way they are going to be impactful comparative to what they paid. It's just not enough innings to rack up value.

And while I get the argument people make that relief pitching is more valuable in the playoffs, I don't agree with the conclusion that you should overpay to get the best relievers for the playoffs. I think you'd have a hard time arguing that Chapman was more valuable than Montgomery in last years playoffs. I'm not entirely against acquiring help in the bullpen but Montgomery sort of proves my point that there's a limit to what you need to pay.

Paralysis by over analysis.
 

Iceman2385

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Well I have pretty much said my piece on it so I'm not going to ramble too much but if they aren't playing Avila at least twice a week he's a bad include in my eyes. In fact I'd argue he should be playing 50/50 with Contreras given what they paid to get him. My worry is more that he sits the bench hardly plays and then wilson gets maybe 20 innings the rest of the way and 5-10 innings in the playoffs. I don't care who you are if that's the amount of playing time those two get there's no way they are going to be impactful comparative to what they paid. It's just not enough innings to rack up value.

And while I get the argument people make that relief pitching is more valuable in the playoffs, I don't agree with the conclusion that you should overpay to get the best relievers for the playoffs. I think you'd have a hard time arguing that Chapman was more valuable than Montgomery in last years playoffs. I'm not entirely against acquiring help in the bullpen but Montgomery sort of proves my point that there's a limit to what you need to pay.

I don't think we overpaid for Wilson. I think it's pretty fair, and at the trade deadline that's a win. Monty did perform well in the playoffs last year, as effective as chapman? I don't have have both of their numbers in front of me, so I can't say for sure. But guessing I'd say chapman pitched a lot more innings in the postseason (which is very valuable) and in more high leverage situations (I know Monty got the save in game 7 of W.S). And I'd guess he had better numbers too lol. I like Monty and I liked that pickup, but nobody could have known he would have performed that well in the playoffs, seems like we got lucky there? I would definitely trust chapman more then Monty this year in playoffs. Ultimately, I didn't like last years trade of chapman at the time, it worked we won so no reason to complain about that.

To me it seems like ur argument is more about last years trade, which I get, but that's old news. Going into the deadline, I wanted the Cubs to trade for a rental, Neshek. I thought he would be good value and still help our pen w effectiveness and give us a different look. But we got Wilson with an extra year of control and for the price we paid, I'm extremely happy w the deal!
 

beckdawg

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Starting pitching is so talent expensive via trade that it just makes more sense to buy through free agency.

That's more of an interesting debate I think because I'm not entirely sure I agree. I'd argue the problem with starting pitching trades is the quality of them often never materializes. For example, how long have the A's been "trading" gray? But if we're talking purely value I'd argue the Quintana trade was reasonably priced. Sale was a big price to pay but he was also probably worth it. Where I bristle a bit when talking about relievers is you really don't know year to year who's going to be good. For example, Rondon was one of the best relievers in baseball for much of last year and then just fell off hard after an injury. Grimm 3 years ago was dominant and looked like a big piece but hasn't had it since. Chapman hasn't been the same this year either.

I think that's what largely makes this discussion interesting. Starters are usually fairly safe bets once they are in the majors. You pretty much know what they are usually outside of injury concerns. And pitching in general is so hard to develop that while paying starting pitching prices hurts, overall I'd argue many starter trades end up being plus value for the teams buying MLB pitchers. In terms of buying via FA, I think that's a bit more hit/miss. For example, do you want David Price on his deal right now? He's been ok but no where near the cy young money they gave him and presumably at age 31 it's only down hill from there.

In terms of how you acquire bullpen help, that's a tough idea in my eyes. Obviously I'm not a fan of paying for it in trade. I'm also not really a fan of paying FA relievers. And drafting and developing pitching in general is just hard for so many reasons. So, I'm not 100% sure there is a reliable way to develop relievers. What I would like to see the cubs do is more focus on guys with big arms who could eventually become something useful. For example, I really liked them picking up Jack Leathersich. He's not quite worked out like you would hope but if he gets some things figured out he can be a really impactful piece. Unfortunately, I don't feel like the cubs have done enough moves like getting him. And obviously there's rule 5 type arms you can try to develop.

The next two years should be interesting. I believe both Rondon and Strop are FA's after this year. Davis definitely is. Think Koji has a 2 year deal. Duensing is on a one year deal. So, the cubs are going to need a lot of help there. Maples is probably good enough that he'll be useful there. He could be one of the better relievers in baseball if he can command his pitches better. His stuff is excellent. And obviously you'll have Edwards and now Wilson plus likely one or two vets. But they are still going to need some arms. I hope they at least try to develop some of their own as say the long man type guy rather than going with more of the Cahill/Duensing type approach.
 

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